BTC - Detailed Update 📹Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 Here is a detailed update top-down analysis for #BTC.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and Why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Overbought
A Little Bearish on Verizon StockWe received two signals for Verizon stock based on the closing price on February 2, 2024 indicating the stock will likely drop over the next 6-20 days. My SAG Gauge Conservative algorithm bearish signal has occurred 211 times. A bearish signal has successfully seen the stock drop below the signal closing price over the next 10 trading days 95.7% of the time. The typical delay, or time the stock does not immediately move downward has generally only been 1 day. This means the stock could move up on Monday, but likely begin its decline as late as Tuesday of this upcoming week.
The other bearish signal is my Up and Down MACD, which signals before a typical MACD cross would occur. Instead of signalling at the cross, I added additional parameters that trigger shortly after weakness is confirmed and well ahead of the cross most people will trade on. For VZ stock, it is accurate in determining reversals 94.50% of the time. This one is interesting in that delays that have occurred result in less than a 1% move. This means the signal price on Friday (closing price) of 42.13 would most likely not see the stock move above 42.60 before it moves below 42.13. In this instance I am looking for a drop well below 42.13.
Simultaneous signals of both algorithms at the same time has occurred 60 times. 58, or 96% of the time the stock has dropped. Simultaneous signals are something I prefer to see as it is more bolstering than solo signals. The last time these two signals occurred together and failed was March 22, 2000. The stock failed to trade downward over the next 27 days. Day 28 finally went into the red, but was a failure in my 10 and 25 day studies.
I am looking for a possible move up on Monday/Tuesday at the latest before we start to move down. A success will occur if the stock goes below 42.13. Historically, simultaneous signals send the stock down to at least 42.09 (which is a very weak success). The 10 day target is a 1.3% - 4% drop over the next 6-9 days. The 25 day target is 2.4% - 6% over by days 13-22. It is unclear where the stock will go after this movement occurs.
Solana(SOL): $82 Will Be Broken ??? SOL is back in the game where we were again outside in overbought zone (from where we had a nice rejection as well)
We are looking at that $82 zone, which we marked as a red area (which needs to be broken for further movement to lower zones)
We are seeing good potential for some downward movement here, so our eyes are open!!
Swallow Team
Bitcoin(BTC): First $43K Then $32K?Another week is here, and last week we had some massive moves on the market. (Where we dumped as low as $38,500 and then recovered from there, eventually not securing that $40K zone as of now.).
That's all natural movement from bitcoin, as we are witnessing a correction to the upper zones (near $43,500), where a lot of liquidity is currently lying.
Despite all that, we are still looking here for that $34K zone to be reached, so keep your eyes open for another potential attempt to breakdown from the 40K zone (which eventually will start the downward movement).
Swallow Team
I Think the General Principles Work
These are the principles I have gained due to the reading materials.
1. Wait for Extreme Premium/Discount
2. Wait for Price to Exhaust Pressure
3. Wait for Any Chart Patterns Indicating Reversal
4. Wait for Trendline Break with Momentum
5. Wait for HARSI/WAE Above Explosion Line + Reversal Engulfing Candle Close
6. Entry on Trendline or Pivot Re-Test.
NO DISCOUNT/PREMIUM, NO PRESSURE, NO RE-TEST, NO ENTRY.
Avalanche(AVAX): Amazing Short Opportunity For Sure! The coin has great potential for some downward movement here, for sure, with price reaching the major resistance zone, which we will not be able to breakout from with our first attempt. As now we have started the rejection phase, we might see even further movement here for sure to lower support!
The first sign of potential reversal is RSI entering back in normal zones (after being in overbought zone)
Swallow Team
Solana(SOL): We Are Looking To Short!SOL has been on our radar ever since that 40% gain we achieved, but as of now, on a daily basis, we are seeing a nice indication of a potential downward movement soon!!
With the price being multiple times outside of the overbought zone, we see that the price is feeling pushy, where currently it is attempting to form another zone outside of the overbought zone.
We are not sure how long this kind of movement will last, but at any point we see that the middle line of the BB can be broken, which can start the dump and a decent correctional movement.
Swallow Team
Ethereum(ETH): Will We Head Towards $3500 Soon? We are back with the ETH coin, where we see that after that major breakout near $2150 we had, a clean re-test price seems to be ready for another bullish movement sooner or later.
As we are getting closer to the close of the yearly candle price, it seems to act like a "calm before the storm," where the price is making minimal moves but still teasing both buyers and sellers.
We are looking at a bigger picture here for a potential bullish movement after breaking that upper resistance line (orange line). Once. we break and secure it we should be good for long-term movement towards $3500
Bitcoin(BTC): We Had A Dump, Did You Sell Like We Did?The new week is here, and the first day is looking promising for bulls, but is it enough for a push??
Let's be honest here: prices were way to high and still are (pre-halving push is not good for BTC)
We are seeing this as a nice start of downward movement here and we see almost zero to none chances of price reaching $50K as of now (but who knows, we might change our mind about it as we have to judge the coin in its current state)
One point of interest for us is also the $45K zone, which might be re-tested one time before further movement, so eyes open at that zone. Overall, we are still seeing further movement to the FWB:36K zone at least.
Bitcoin(BTC): Another Rejection At $45,000With the new weekly opening, we see another week (the last one) closing below the strong resistance zone at $45K. Resistance is holding strong, and the new weekly is showing yet further weakness.
Sure, ETF news and rumours are putting some uncertainty into traders, but nevertheless, one thing is sure: wealthy people would benefit more from rejecting or postponing the ETF.
With that being said, we are still looking for BTC to go into the liquidity grab zones. We personally are still short.
Bitcoin(BTC): Fake ETF Approval = Markets Dumped!Here we are touched nicely by that FWB:48K zone that we have been telling you about and also which activated for us the third and last entry on our short position.
We are now looking to see no more further growth here and more downward movement, for sure!
As we mentioned already, we see that fake news we had was like a small test run. People have seen an approval, yet markets dumped even before the confirmation of it being fake announcement. Traders are shorting and going by the rule of "Buy The Rumor, Sell The News."
Swallow Team
Bitcoin(BTC): Markets Are Extremely Greedy!! Be Careful!!The second day of the week started with some breakouts from $45K, which has been one struggle zone for many days already. Now that we have broken that zone and resulted in another big green candle (which lately has been common), we have entered into the "Extreme Greed" situation with the marekts!
Only based on that index can we assume that we will see a drop, but this is one good additional confirmation for us that we are going to see a nice potential downfall very soon!
Greed and Fear Index: Extremely Greedy / 76
Swallow Team
Dogecoin(DOGE): Has reached Major Resistance / Rejection? DOGE is at a pivotal moment, as it confronts a significant resistance zone. After a substantial rally, the RSI is telling us that the market is overheating and entering overbought territory. This could indicate that a correction is near the corner.
We're watching for a decisive move; a sustained break above the resistance could signal continued bullish momentum, while a rejection might lead to a retracement towards the lower support levels at $0.08230 and potentially to $0.07535, which are our current targets as we stay below this resistance zone. As always, we'll look for confirmation in the price action and other indicators before making any moves.
Bitcoin(BTC): Rejected $45K Zone!!!We got what we came for!! We have a very nice rejection near the $45K zone, which shows demand for further movement to lower zoes.
Remember, the longer the tree grows, the harder it falls. We are still way too expanded and overbought on BTC, so keep your eyes open for potential further movement to lower zones!
The start looks promising, but we gotta be careful for any short-squeeze!
Swallow Team
Bitcoin: We Are Entering Re-Accumulation PhaseWith the expansion phase being on the higher high zones, we are soon to enter the re-accumulation zone, which means we might see some sharp movements soon and a potential movement to the lower zones to liquidate the majority of the long position before finally entering the bullish market!
We are still 4 months away (around 127 days) from the next halving, and recently we witnessed a nice expansion phase that resulted in a ROI of 175%. This is more than enough for the expansion, which means we are going to enter very soon into the re-accumulation phase.
Swallow Team
Bitcoin(BTC): Did not secure $45K zoneThird day of the week, and BTC is going to attempt another breakout here! With last daily candle closing below $45K zone, we did not get confirmation of a breakout from that resistance zone, which is good for sellers (and us as well)
But the new daily is already showing some strength, potentially going for another attempt to secure that zone!
What's also crossing our attention is that while it is going for another attempt, it is also pushing to stretch the Bollinger Bands, which, usually in combination with resistance, has been a good strong spot! The plan is still the same!
Bitcoin(BTC): FVG Zones Can Be Filled Soon!On the first day of the week, we are showing you the major FVG zones that are still are waiting to be filled (lowest being near $26K zone)
As for the major picture, we already told you guys that we are shorting the BTC coin and targets are near the $32K zone.
The major resistance has been holding strong for now, but we might see one last short squeeze before the downward movement, so be careful here for sure! Do not overleverage if you trade on your own!!
Swallow Team
Bitcoin(BTC): Struggle To Break $45K - Good Moment To DCA!For the last 21 days, the price of BTC has been held back by that major resistance zone at $45K, which is giving us a small clue that the volume of buyers is decreasing, and with every new weekly candle, we see that they find it harder and harder to break that resistance.
With the amazing pre-halving pump markets have had so far, we see the dominance of BTC getting back on its feet (with the fact that yesterday's small drop resulted in some major moves on alt coins).
We are still seeing a nice breakdown happen to reclaim those major liquidity zones at $34K and $26K as well. Be safe and trade smart; this week will be hard on many traders for sure!
Ethereum(ETH): Smaller Timeframe ScenariosETH, on a smaller timeframe, is showing us some interesting patterns as well. As we can see, that upper, smaller resistance is primarily holding price, which will determine the following significant movement.
Breakout + Re-Test = Bullish Movement
Rejection + Re-Test = Bearish Movement
Swallow Team
Bitcoin(BTC): First Weakness In 60 Days = Liquidity Hunt StartsThird Week: We are seeing a nice rejection happening near the $44,500 zone, where the last weekly candle closed with nice and good dominance from bears. With that being said, we are seeing the first weakness kick in since October 16th (2 months of straight green candles).
Now that the first weak link has accrued, we are seeing a nice start of downward movement, which can easily reclaim a lot of FVG zones on the lower timeframes, where also the majority of liquidity is!
The start is nice, so let's see if we can keep it up from this point!
Bitcoin(BTC): Hard To Break That $45K = We Start To SellWith holidays just around the corner, the price of BTC is having hard times breaking that major $45K zone, which has been some kind of resistance for quite some time.
With that being said, we see a weakness in volume from buyers, which is also good for us as we are getting ready for a potential major correction to happen before the next bullish market cycle.
Swallow Team