Overextended
SPY Upper Channel overextendedIf you draw a trend line on top of the price candlesticks, you get the upper level of the channel, which seems to be overextended.
This has not meant a strong reversal necessarily, but more of a consolidation period.
Interesting to note:
- the 50sma has been an important level for some time
- the lower Bollinger Band has also acted as a potential support
As the 50sma and the lower BB get close, they may act as multiple support, for a potential buy the dip scenario. (look at the drawn green circles)
Seasonality wise, April is one of the strongest months, only after November. May isn't too bad, as it has closed higher than it opened, 68% of the time for the past 20 years; June however, is one of the worst months for the past 20 years (just after January), with a positive outcome 58% for the past 20 years.
If you would like to check seasonality for any symbol, let me know and I will be happy to assist.
Hope everyone has a great weekend.
LGIH Pullback?LGIH has been on a great run over the past 2 weeks. I love this company in the long term, but I see a shorter term pullback coming as soon as next week simply because it has had 11 consecutive green candles on the daily, and the there is now a divergence in the current trend and the daily volume. I'm betting on a fall to at least $120 before April. BUT Only Time Will Tell
RUNEUSD Short Reasons to sell
Overextension of the RSI on the 4hr
Bearish DIV on 1hr and 2hr
Last time we saw a move like this was 04 Nov 2020 with a 20% correction happening
Strong resistance at $6
Head and shoulders still intact (but subject to change as we are in a bull run and this is a bearish pattern) low success rate in bull runs
Could see price revisit $4.80
Reasons to buy
Very strong bullish daily candle with a breakout of the descending channel
Doji at support level on 25th March
Good news came out in regards to ASGARDEX/Multichain going live soon
GBP/CHF MONTLY BEARISH PATTERN!!!In the monthly we have a price that is over extended. The price is currently rejecting a supply area. As well we have a over extended W formation, so we can expect the price to complete the pattern with a rejection to the w previous leg. if we take fibonacci from low to high we can see that the fibonacci .618 level is align perfectly with estructure. We just have to make sure that the M,W and D time Frames are in the same direction before taking any action.
FTSE - Retest of 6,200 - 6,150 levelTVC:UKX
- FTSE overextended after a strong break of downtrend channel
- Retest of 6,200-6,150 level needed
ETH heading for retracement?Ethereum has an extended run up with no corrective wave.
Ascending wedge forming with price contracting, logically there should be a break to the downside from here - I have marked the highest level of resistance.
I will set a pending order here (risking 1-3%) and I will just hold this position for years. I think Crypto assets, like the S&P500, will just continue to increase in value over a 10 year period. We're only at the start of their growth.
Breakouts like this are rareThe Federal Reserve note is dying. BTC is the Harbinger. Price action is violently bullish. Any fundamental downside compared to the dollar? No. BTC has a finite float, the float of the dollar is infinite. To use a stock market analogy, the dollar has unlimited Authorized shares, BTC has limited authorized shares. It's just a matter of time
APPS - overextendedRSI at 90, meaning extreme overbought levels.
The lower BB has curled up, and intraday volume has been below-average.
If we see a pullback; 20ema will line-up around $21.5, to test a short-term support.
I am SHORT until we see some consolidation after this parabolic move.
$21.5 could be a good place to enter a position.
AMD over-extended, potential swing short for ~18% [update]Volume still low, so still a safe short. Watching carefully for any spike in volume, in which case this has excellent squeeze potential for a day trade long.
BANKNIFTY Weekly Review Banknifty Monthy - Banking Index held its previous month low and also surpassed the previous month high and I am hoping it be closing above the previous month high tomorrow, and if it does and it is going to be a very good monthly closing, indicating likely continuance of the recent up move.
Banknifty Weekly - On Weekly, it formed a Big Bull Candle closed near it high, such types of candles as good support, hence for this uptrend to continue, the index should hold and trade above this candle low i.e 22410.
Banknifty Daily - On Daily, you can see, from many trading sessions, it has been forming candles with higher highs and higher lows, and Friday candle is a big bull candle closed near it high, Such Big candles when formed after a good move, often indicates the prices are overextended and it might rest for a while or retrace some part of it. There is also a crab pattern formed on the daily chart suggesting a resistance around 24560-24660. Price action near crab resistance is usually wild, by wild, I means you can see spikes, large movements in the prices in any direction.
So if the market opens flat or gaps up tomorrow, it might also test 25150 on the upside or the support levels mentioned above.
Conclusion: Trend is up on all time frames, it's a buy on dips on the market because it is always better to trade in the direction of the trend. Currently, the prices look extended on the daily chart and any dip would likely be absorbed quickly. Immediate support is around 23590 and 22980 levels
Disclaimer: Being a trend trader, I won't be trading any index tomorrow, will wait for it to get settled.
AMD over-extended, potential swing short for ~18% [update]Expecting correction over next few weeks down to ~$70.
Watching that 87-88 range for a new breakout, but it doesn't have the volume. Volume will be key indicator for now.
MSFT breakout from triangleMSFT tested current support 3 times, before breaking out of it today.
Getting good risk-reward-ratio.
QQQ is getting overextended, but the RSI(14)@65 on MSFT is not in overbought territory yet (which is not an indication of a sell, just something to watch).
QTUM- On fire! Now or wait for the pullbackPropelled by the news of offline staking, mainnet and potential DeFi project, QTUM is on the hot steak lately.
One of the two famous smart contract platform projects, along with NEO, from China back in 2017. It is trading below its long-term S/R lvl and is about 96% from its ATH (Check my links below for other coins that are down over 90% from their ATH- SNT & NANO).
On the daily time frame, it seems very over-extended so pullback may be imminent. I would not mind hopping onto the bandwagon now with small order because next resistance lvl is still 20% away and add onto the position on the pullback.
TSLA overextended?Breaking out of the long term trend channel. Are we seeing an overreaction to the up side?
Bullish long term
Wayfair: Chart Overextended and Price way beyond FundamentalsYou can see that selling on the upper red line has rewarded shorts in the past and I believe that this is a great short opportunity here - one of the best i have ever seen. We have got way over extended and fundamentally the price is just way too high for a this company, even with the 'shopping online' narrative that has been done to death. Overstock is the much better company in reality. Margins are just too small for furniture and you only have to read Wayfair reviews on the likes of Trustpilot to realise how poor their products are. I think we should at the very least see a retrace back to the 250 levels here.
$SAM Boston Beer Company: Over-Extended & Priced For Perfection$SAM Boston Beer Company: Over-Extended & Priced For Perfection
Looking back long term whenever this stock gets 30-40% above it's 200d ema line its usually time for some kind of correction.
At its highest peaks it was over 40% above. Right now its over 45% above it with earnings approaching next week.
People aren't socializing as much or congregating in big groups. Bars which had opened are now being forced to close.
Even if they hit their EPS target for the quarter. The story for the near term will not be positive.
This stock is over-bloated and ripe for shorting.
Near Term Target: $575.00
If $575 support is broken we could easily see the $525-$550 range.
Note: Not investment advice.
[DEFX] DeFi Breaking Bearish - Time for a retraceDecentralized Finance, the hot new projects making 5-10x in a matter of weeks. Will these 1000% gains be held over summer? It's only a matter of time before DeFI comes back to Earth, regardless of whether it will continue to be adopted by the crypto community.
Exepct this DeFi Index to drop hard if Bitcoin breaks below key support levels. This will be top of the list of high risk markets to be dumped if the overall crypto market is to take a fall. Market value is now below the MA Ribbon and cloud on the Daily, RSI is close to bearish, and it's a long way back down to the 100 & 200 MAs, as well as the lower levels of fib retracement 0.236 - 0381.
With parabolic moves come sharp corrections. It could take a while, but this market needs to cool down already.
That said, if Bitcoin continues to consolidate for more weeks/months, expect higher levels of speculation.
ALL GREEN!! Great Boost For The Weekend! - 06/19/20 RECAPHi traders,
What a wonderful end of a week! I am all green, costing myself some part of that +6% had I let all the trades run to their full targets, but then again, SPY was already overextended and I didn't want to push my luck anymore.
I am also copying my trades to the TV demo live so there is even more transparency for you guys to see!
Trades:
1) CLF - SHORT @5.79, +1.22%
2) SLB - SHORT @20.53, +1.72%
3) BA - SHORT @192.01, +1.46%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: +4.40%
Total PnL for the week: +1.42%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
$SE Overextended - Bearish Hanging Man Candle on Daily$SE Overextended - Bearish Hanging Man Candle on Daily
Price currently appears over-extended, 101% above its 200d ema. Previous peaks were 60% and 52% for perspective.
Anticipating a near-term correction. High risk short play. See chart for possible near term targets.
Note: Educational analysis, not investment advice.
EURUSD - WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION | RSI DIVERGENCE / MOVING AVERAGEEUR/USD Severely over extended and awaiting a substantial correction
There is substantial risk in entering at the current price. Opening a position at these levels may result in liquidation.
Waiting for confirmation via:
RSI Divergence
Moving Average Break
Wick Rejection
Daily RSI @ Extreme RSI Levels ~ 80
VERDICT: EUR/USD due a correction soon with confirmation via the above. Executing a short position now is very risky and may result in liquidation.
SHORT EUR/GBP.SHORT EUR/GBP, ***IF there is a clear rejection at the 78,60% level of the monthly fibonacci, wich is on a monthly key level. Also, the market is overextended as seen on the RSI. IMPORTANT : I am only showing an analysis on one of the many timeframes that I use.
