The Different Ways To Trade The StochasticsCryptohopper Newsletter
The market has been very volatile over the past month with Bitcoin crashing 65% to 3,800$ . The price has since made an astonishing 80% recovery in one week from March 13th until the 20th. Following the recovery to almost 7,000$; the price has continued to range between 6,900$ and 5,600$. During the crash, many traders have attempted to buy the dip, just to see it dip even lower. Today we will explore how you could mitigate this risk by using stochastics with region crossover.
Without further due, let’s get into how you could have traded this past month by using the normal stochastics and the stochastics with region crossovers.
Different stochastic strategies
There are many different ways to use stochastics. Today we will explore 2 of them, along with their advantages and disadvantages:
Stochastics oversold: This strategy involves getting into a position when the stochastics drop below 20.
This strategy works better when the broader trend is in your favor, as it is expected for the price drops to be shortlived and to continue moving higher. The advantage of this is that you will be getting in at the lower prices in an uptrend.
This strategy can be very dangerous during a market crash though, or when the price is bearish in general as you will be getting in the trade, while the price will continue to drop further . This can be seen very well in the first three trades where the price continued to drop lower even though the stochastics were already oversold.
Stochastics with region crossover: This strategy involves getting into a position once the value of the asset in question rises again above 20.
This strategy can work very well in a downtrend but also in an uptrend depending on the severity of the pullback. In a downtrend, this strategy increases the probability that you are entering the trade only when the momentum is back in your favor. This can be seen by the first three entries in the graph where the buy point was 7%, 8%, and 16% lower than with the oversold strategy
In an uptrend, if the pullback is very large then this strategy will again ensure that the price will not continue [/b its descent once you enter. However, if the pullbacks are not very severe, then you will enter at a worse price point.
Overall the stochastics with region crossovers is more conservative and can lead to higher profits when the markets are volatile, as it is the case right now. Join us at Cryptohopper, where you can automate both of these strategies along with many others!
Oversold
NCLH sweet tradingNow to note on some of my trades went, well not great due to the virus. HL options expired and everything pretty much dropped. Even though I had some bear options on amd and spce. The virus didn't give a dam about it and if you were a bear you were lucky a little if you weren't reading the virus early stages in China, which AMD dump was given.
Now on to NCLH and why I'm bullish.
First the news
-On friday trump signed the 2trillion dollar stimulaus package with 4trillion set aside in case the 2trillion fails...hint hint it will fail.
-Now NCLH and the cruise lines weren't in the relief help in the bill, so on Friday and today they tanked with fear
- Trump has stated he will be buying/bailing them out with only NCLH leaving his mouth, so NCLH could be a safe accumulation phase and probably the most volital stock...I love it
-NCLH, only one I heard, is proactive and leasing their ships to the US gov to fight the virus and help treat people.
-One concern is that their staff has been reported lying about what NCLH is doing, yet the company told their emplyees to stop spreading rumors and the lies.
Now the virus, yes the virus is needed to do TA with uncertain so lets cover global news on it.
-USA becomes number one in case, yet still fewer deaths besides in major cites/high destiny population
-Vaccine/treatment is suppose to come later this fall, yet the average time of a vaccine is over a year, so next year is likely candidate to end the virus/be able to treat it.
-More and more world leaders are catching the virus and could cancel/delay the US elections.
Now into NCLH TA
-Side note I read that there have been alot of put sellers at the $10, yet take it with a grain of salt during this uncertainty and may be just stupid money against crusies.
-Now overview on the lines:
-the purple box is the range a bought NCLH on March 19 with the first blue horizontal line being a sell before it went to $20.
-Green line at $9.88 is todays buy near market open with that insane dump with fear from friday one could say
-Second blue line is the low of march 25-26 which could be a top with this buy in with the idea we could get into a tight range before making the big move.
-First red box of 30% is from todays buy to the low mar 24 before it had its move to $20. The second one is from todays buy to the low of the trading range of mar 25-26
-Emas are still far apart and looks towards more downside
-MACD looks like its gonna go bullish with a crossover as the selling platues out, could make another hill so still risky trade
-RSI is oversold, but not deadly oversold, just oversold by today.
-Volume is dropping and have an expected massive move soon since volume is still up there as today bulls hold the low $10 range.
I'm bullish on NCLH cause it was hit one of the hardest since china came out with the virus early this year. From what I read NCLH is the most proactive crusie line and during this bear trend in the market, I believe sub $10 or whenever you are confident there is hugh potential and upside. Also going on the assumption as the president said they will bail/buy out NCLH after discussion and them leasing their ships out is postive news to accumulate on and could get a bigger cut when they get their releif. Long esposer may hurt, but during this time and with a cheap price this is a great swing trading stock during this market.
Overbought and oversold on XRPBTCUsing the Williams R% oscillator indicator since July 2019 we can see overbought and oversold states on XRPBTC. Here are two types of vertical lines: greens and orange.
The green lines are the moment when the position should have been open and the oranges when it should have been close.
The arrows show whether price should have risen or fallen according to the indicator.
The conservative signal for a long position is when the line breaks up the bottom dashed and the -50.00 line. The signal for a short position is the mirror. At this time, the signal is for a long position from 27 Mar until the line breaks down the -50.00 line again.
Note: Stop loss and take profits are only illustrative.
Chart: D
GBP/USD bullishGBP/USD bullish long in all timeframe from 30m into daily
Economic calendar release next week will be bearish for USD and bullish for GBP
GBP/USD is currently above MTF EMA as support
DeMarker, RSI, BB and oscillators o/s levels are oversold expect for reversal
Expected to move upto 1.30 with NFP release being bearish expected
Short Term Bear Market Rally The next resistance is around 265 (dotted red line), then if passed, SPY could test a 50% fibonacci retracement back to near the 280 level (other dotted red line).
SPY on the daily chart is looking strong with the Stochastic line coming off of oversold, the MACD signal line just being crossed, and it breaking from the previous downward channel. We are looking at a short term bear market rally. I don't see it lasting longer than another week or two.
280 will be a difficult resistance to pass, especially as bad economic news continues to surface.
The underlying economic shock caused by COVID-19 will keep the bears in control.
Don't catch a falling knife or falling plane. Fasten seatbeltsWell, if there was any doubts that trading was much better than investing, this recent market correction certainly proves trading outperforms the investment "buy and hold" trainwrecks! Poor little retired investors who just saw their AC investments chopped in The chart I'm providing today is simple since I'm too busy trading that creating fancy charts. It's a day chart. We are seeing a descending triangle setting up for a formidable reversal pattern when the blood stops gushing from this bird. For AC, if you can't read minute charts, best wait for a confirmed reversal before risking a penny here. Not for the faint of heart or rookies. You need very short term trading abilities to make serious money. Wild volatility makes this a very profitable trade without having to risk short selling at or near the short term lows. Seriously oversold RSI of 11 on the day chart and numerous other time scales. Dangerous both long and short. Don't buy and hold. Don't short and hold here...
Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seatbelts. The turbulence is far from over in the wider market and in the Canadian skies.
Stay safe and hug your neighbours in a socially distant way!
BTC -The Bullish Scenario- from this DUMP!!!IF We see good bounce from here some things I'm seeing are:
$ Bullish divergences:
4, 6, 12 and Daily Time Frame (Need to reverse though to confirm the upswing on RSI)
$ Descending broadening bottom pattern
$ Hit the 50% retrace for overall 6440-10400 FIB on log
$ 1 HR cooked at 8-10 very historic low
BTC Finding Strength On Daily ---> Will We See Halving Pump?Been calling for double bottom to play out in Stochastic RSI on daily timeframe. We can see we've done just that and then some! MACD trend showing exhaustion as MACD Line tests major support. 0.5 Fib level acting as current support.
Expecting a large move to precede the halving in late May. Many alt coins will follow.
Worth noting the increasing noise about BTC & energy waste. This could be a pawn used against it in the future & or black swan event. Will never stop btc but can reduce its adoption by forcing the majority of the world to use another asset... one that works with the banks... which could only be... (insert your favorite coin here ;))
Not on any bandwagon in particular but if you've been in this space for a minute you know how exciting and euphoric thing can get. Opportunities are all around.
FANG Stocks| Facebook Oversold Bounce| Fed Rate Cuts?Evening Traders!
Today’s technical update will be on Facebook with an oversold bounce coming to fruition, this is similar across the board due to the immense sell pressure.
Points to consider,
- Trend broke key 200 MA
- Local resistance being tested
- Local support at .50 Fibonacci
- RSI approaching yearly lows
- Stochastics in lower regions
- Bull Volume influx
Facebook broke its key 200 MA which plays a historical significance in determining a bear or bull trend. Currently the local resistance zone is being tested (market close) which is in confluence with the 200 MA. A close above will increase bullish bias. A rejection will technically put in a lower high, which is very bearish.
Local support is at the .50 Fibonacci, this can be considered to be the nest logical support if the bears continue to control price.
The RSI is trading at yearly lows; this level here technically indicates a short term bounce. Facebook’s stochastics is also trading in lower regions, can stay here for an extended period of time, however lots of stored momentum to the upside.
Upon market close, there has been a clear influx in bull volume, signalling potential seller exhaustion for the short term, it would only be natural to have a relief rally at some point.
Overall, in my opinion, Facebook and stocks across the board have a high degree of probability in having in oversold bounce. Oscillators are extended, local resistances needs to break otherwise lower highs will be set, which is extremely bearish.
Will Fed rate cuts save the economy again?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
“The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs.” – Jesse Livermore
XRP Last Round In The Chamber Last fib level for reversal Stochastic RSI heavily oversold. Seeing a possible double bottom pattern playing out right now. Exciting times if you remember the days prior to last ATH when XRP teased us at this exact same price range. Interesting to say the least...
Not Financial Advice.
GBP/USD - ShortI am watching and will be taking a trade if we can pull back up and create a lower high as well as a touch of the trendline with the possible rejection of the 1.3000 resistance level.
We are in a strong Weekly uptrend but at the moment we are having a weak retracement. Looking on the Fibonacci from the low of 1.19566 to 1.35086 we have just tapped and rejected the 50% level, however, I do think we can come down to test the 61.8% level.
ETH- Pullback or march toward the NEXT MAJOR RESISTANCE LVLHello everyone!
BTC dominace lvl has gone down a little and, we start to see more trading volume flow into retail's favorite crypro exchange coinbase as its trading volume increased 50% recently.
Retail money is what makes the uptrend move sustainable!
VPVR looks bullish as the price pierced through VA and both long term and short-term POC with long term trend line acting a strong support below.
However, ETH is currently facing long term fib resistance (32.8) and previous support lvl .
Furthermore, many indicators indicate the overextended status ( bollinger & ichi) and oversold status hovering around 75-80 on both daily and weekly timeframe
In terms of magnitude, 8 straight weekly green candles is probably overheating.
Next major resistance lvl is around 360. Buy on the dip within the buyzone if the price pullbacks.
Please like and follow me if you find my analysis useful. Much appreciated!
BUY HAS @ 98.8 take +16%, stop -3%Hasbro is a big toy company, one of the largest in the world. Today is New York Toy Fair (21.02.2020) this may impact positively 1st quater of 2020 for HAS.
The price on it's lows after weak earnings report, and it seems to me very pretty!
Buy @ 98.8
Take @ 115.0 (+16%)
Stop @ 95.0 (-3%)
Close stop, long run! It may take a few months to get to the take, be patient.
Low RSI. The stock price has crossed below the lower Bollinger Band, which gives us a buy signal.
Lower support line @ 96.7 (D).
ROKU all out dumpTicker: $ROKU
$ROKU dumped 20% in the last five trading days, all with a lower close than the day prior. Bears are in a great position especially with the help of the overall market weaknesss. A HUGE support ($116.26) is coming possibly on Monday, but definitely this upcoming week.
Break that level and short is going to run with it. If we down to the extremes with 4 hour RSI under 20, I will potentially start scouting for an oversold bounce. I will be extremely picky because of the general market weakness and will monitor the correlation closely.
Change the hourly trend with a higher low, and a high high; as well as break the pattern of the lower high every day pattern and that will be the first indication that a bounce will be playing out.
OXT New Coin Little Price History.. Future Giant?OXT with its little price history offers added risk but increased reward if things turn bullish. If RSI can break above oversold territory I would expect a move to retest resistance at he 50 day MA around 0.285. Volume looks ready for a large spike. At the time of this post OXT market cap is 17.5 million. Will follow up as trend progressed & at the end of the year to see where we are.
BTC Double Bottom In Oversold Daily RSI & Fibonacci Following up from my previous BTC post I was looking at the possibilities of daily RSI forming a double bottom while the weekly timeframe RSI "cooled off". Fib extension looking to provide support at the .786. If we can do that I would expect to retest the last high around $10.5k. Bearish scenario could take us back to the $9,200's. Really is just about finding the best time to buy right now. Hype fuse isn't even lit yet.. Your grandma will be shilling coinz in the next bull cycle... could be sooner than later.
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HAVE A GREAT DAY. LIFE IS A GIFT.
Not Financial Advice.
TABBOO LOVE: I Like BTC & XRP ---> Idea Below
XRP Fib Redrawn With RSI Double Bottom & Golden Cross Near Have been watching a double bottom pattern forming on Stochastic RSI 1 Day timeframes across many major crypto with over bought condition on the weekly. The weekly charts are cooling off while a nice double bottom is forming in oversold conditions on the daily. BTC is a clear example (see idea below). I redrew the fib to the local trend and we are currently looking to retest the .618 resistance. Breaking above that would most likely give the moving averages the momentum to golden cross (blue 50 day over black 200). Declining volume so we could see a large spike to move the market in either direction. If a bearish shituation* plays out then I see strong support around 0.253-0.255 area. A break above the .618 would mean a retest of the resistance around 0.315.
Please Like & Comment ------> Lets Be Friends **even if we disagree**
HAVE A GREAT DAY. LIFE IS A GIFT.
Not Financial Advice.
BTC Double Bottom ---> Idea Below
ZEC Looking To Double Bottom In Oversold Territory On The Daily ZEC pulling back along with the rest of the market. It has golden crossed on the daily timeframe. Stochastic RSI is oversold. The weekly timeframe RSI is Overbought similar to BTC. ZEC currently attempting to find support on the 50 MA. Thinking we'll see the weekly RSI cool off resulting in the daily RSI turning south in the days ahead to make a double bottom formation. Price could retest the upper $40's potentially. I would suspect candle body to bottom around $55 but that is highly speculative. If you know anything about ZEC is this thing prints insane wicks all the time so watch out with your stop loss. At least consider that in your trading strategy this is a real easy one to get stopped out in rather frequently. Its worth noting that on January 14th or 15th ZEC saw what looks to be its highest amount of buy volume ever recorded. I am long term investor with bullish view overall. Think the charts are showing some bearish potential for the days ahead. Say what you will about Zcash but remember this one thing....
It was once listed for $2,200,000 each. Ridiculous as it may be it still is a fact. Calculate the risks you take.
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HAVE A GREAT DAY. LIFE IS A GIFT.
Not Financial Advice.
BTC Golden Cross On The Daily Despite Recent Sell OffAfter a healthy uptrend BTC has met resistance on the major diagonal resistance line drawn from the 20k & 14k peaks. Despite a strong rejection we have still managed to get a Golden Cross on the daily chart . Stochastic RSI in oversold conditions. However, We are in overbought territory on the Weekly timeframe in Stochastic RSI . Looking at moving averages for support out fist one would be the 50 day around the $8,500 region. We need to breakout of the diagonal resistance before we can put our moon suits on. That time only grows closer each day. Could see a double bottom get printed in daily Stochastic RSI in oversold condition while the weekly cools off. There is definitely some downside potential for BTC and the market overall in the short term. If your focused on the macro picture you know where were going long term. Double digit blocks soon to be a thing of the past ---> for ever.
Please Like & Comment ------> Lets Be Friends **even if we disagree**
HAVE A GREAT DAY. LIFE IS A GIFT.
Not Financial Advice.