Bitcoin has chosen! Now: How low will it go?So, as I feared BTC did choose not to respect the 4200 support line, that many hoped would be a magical Gandalf Mana shield barrier or something XD
No, as predicted, trendlines don't count a lot in BTC, since the support is more akin to a squareroot function in the log chart.
Therefore, we can go quite lower, without breaking the longterm bulltrend.
The question now is how long, and when?
Considern the fractal analysis with 2014/15, we're a bit slower now, lagging behind 2 months, which makes sense, since the market has grown a lot since then.
It cannot be faster, because more people are in BTC, therefore the inertia is higher, BTC behaves like a physical system.
We therefore can point the date of the final low to March 2019.
Now, how low?
Hard to see, but the super strong bulltrendline since 2010, the SQRT support, lies somewhere around 1900. Of course, it can go below that, even to 1200, and then bouncing
strongly. It only depends where the weekly candle will close, and I am sure we'll see an epic bounce with insane volume on that day.
How low exactly I cannot tell, but somewhere in the area 2000, and as low as 1200.
Distributing the buy orders will be a very good idea then.
Daily RSI is insanely oversold, we'll see an epic bounce today from 3000, the weekly might even close above 4000 again.
And we see, that BTC gravitates towards the old ATHs again. Did it almost in mid 2013, did it in 2015, and probably will either do it again,
or at least come very close to that region.
Be prepared, and make some good profit on that day. It will be a last chance to get into BTC at these prices, before the next bullrun in 2020 starts,
taking us to the top of 100K.
Oversold
BTC: Price under SMMA + RSI over sold (under 40) = accumulate?Something I noticed on the Bitcoin 0.56% 0.69% weekly chart is that before the second and third bull run, while the price was under the SMMA ( Smoothed Moving Average ) and the RSI was oversold (under 40 in this case), it would have been a good idea to accumulate Bitcoin 0.56% 0.69% .
Is this a reliable indicator for future buying opportunities? What are arguments against this theory?
If you see any mistakes or anything interesting you wish to discuss, fire away.
Thanks for viewing.
What the freak is a smoothed average?
www.danielstrading.com
Ethereum - Possible Bounce Coming Up Soon (ETHUSD)The markets are way too oversold and fearful right now, a bounce should be coming up soon.
The next support level would be somewhere around $50, but I don't really see that happening for now.
I consider one more wave down into the $100 region, then a correction to somewhere between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fib level ($145-$170).
Should be a good move since the dump was pretty heavy and we have more or less seen 12 days of blood in a row.
The harder the fall, the stronger the counterforce. Get your seatbelts fastened!
Bitcoin for the next couple of daysBTCUSD is forming a bullish descending wedge and oscillators are extremely oversold again so I'm expecting a move back towards the $4k before a resumption of the downtrend to the $3400 region. Bitcoin found bottom support for the downtrend on 20 November so I'm expecting a move back to this trend line support at the bottom of the wedge around $3660 before a bounce to the overall downtrend resistance around $4k. This is based on a 382 fibo retracement from $3660. price should then drop back to the bottom of the trend line support to the 161.8 fibo extension at around $3400. I have a feeling there will be a strong bounce on 30 November around the CME bitcoin futures expiry but we should be ready for the relief bounce at any time. Indicators are not going to be overextended and oversold forever. Expecting a massive bounce at some point and I don't quite think that price will reach the $2900 - $3000. This would be too convenient and the market makers will probably rek the traders who are looking to buy back at sub 3200 levels. A drop below our downtrend support takes the support down to the swing lows on 20 November in which case the price will be bouncing from the support of a larger descending channel.
Good luck and happy trading!
Previous post:
Buy $BTC when the RSI moves up out of oversold conditions.Each red vertical line is signaling when the RSI moved up out of oversold conditions. The price rallied nicely each time. This indicator can stay well under the green line to keep the market oversold.
So, I will be looking for a buy when the RSI gets back above the green horizontal line and moves out of oversold conditions (or forms a divergence to price when down here). A move out of oversold conditions will likely happen on a clear upside break of marked resistance on the chart. And I would want internal trend momentum to back the upside move. I will use the ADX indicator to help guide that decision since it measure trend strength.
I will not buy the bottom, but I will be buying when a nice bull trend is establishing and will make up for it in the long run.
Thoughts?
Idea on XLM/USDTBased on the daily chart, Stochastic RSI is on oversold area, which could potentially reverse on these 2-3 days.
Also, we see that there is a bullish divergence on the Stochastic RSI (daily chart)
On the 4hr chart however, the Stochastic RSI is in a overbought area, which probably would stop the rise of XLM/USDT for a while. and continuing its upward momentum.
There are 3 scenarios that would probably take place.
1. it breaks the 0.382 fib level and go upwards.
2. reverse on the 0.382 fib level, bounce of the 20 EMA, and break the 0.382 fib level.
3. go down to the 50 EMA and 0.5 fib level, and reverse to break the 0.382 fib level.
On the fundamentals side, it is rumoured that XLM will conduct airdrop, giving the current XLM holders XLA (Stellar Activity) with the ratio of 1:2
The momentum/sentiment towards Stellar Lumens (XLM) have been so positive.
Disclaimer: this is not a financial/trading advice.
Good luck to you all!
EURNZD: Price Bounce LikelyEURNZD
Timeframe: 1D
Direction: Long
Confluences for Trade:
- Price at Long-Term Trendline (since Feb 2017)
- Price at Fibo 38% levels
- Price around Horizontal Trendline (since Jan 2018)
- Divergence of 8 EMA and 50 EMA quite wide
- Stochastic Oversold momentum
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 1.6610 -1.6750)
SL: 1.6464
TP: 1.1.7228
RR: Approx. 2.80 (Depending on Entry Level)
May the pips move in our favor! Good luck! :D
*This trade suggestion is provided on an advisory basis. Any trade decisions made based on this suggestion is a personal decision and we are not responsible for any losses derived from it.
Strong bounce from falling wedge support!Bitcoin dropped to the bottom of the falling wedge and experienced a strong bounce from $6160 support. Wait for break above wedge resistance to enter trade. StochRSI approaching oversold and price is fast approaching the wedge apex for a breakout before the end of November. Bitcoin has been garnering higher lows since June and has found strong support on the uptrend so I am anticipating a break to the upside within the next 2 weeks. This should take BTCUSD above the 50 and 100 DMA to the 200 DMA at around $7k.
Target Range 1: $6750 - $6880
Target Range 2: $7030 - $7110
Target Range 3: $7400 - $7600
Tether and Bitfinex causing exchange discrepancies again so I will be sticking to the Coinbase charts for the time being for until the tether fud clears. This is a short term view, who knows what the SEC will decide to do on 29 December 2018 when the Van Eck bitcoin ETF decision is either deferred one last time, rejected or approved. Until then I don't see price dropping below our $6K support.
Good luck and happy trading!
Gold ShortBased on price action in the weekly chart and DXY possibly edging higher to 100, it might still take more time before gold recovers. Most likely it will continue to go sideways.
Entering sell stop order few pips below @1200 to continue riding bearish momentum of XAUUSD and take advantage of stronger dollar, with TP between @1180 - 1185, and SL near its recent high @1206.
Need to watch out for consolidation in dollar especially DXY is now in its new 2018 high. Also CPI news and Fed Powell speech tomorrow, and geopolitical risks that might suddenly arise for any developments about the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting later this month.
DXY:
www.kitco.com
www.cnbc.com
bigthink.com
investingnews.com
Daily:
Weekly:
Confidence: B (because of upcoming news about USD, other geopolitical risks, and USD and Gold slowly getting a little overbought and oversold respectively)
VET/USDT - Massive Descending Wedge WATCH FOR BREAKOUT!!!
TARGETS :
-TP1: 0.01230
-TP2: 0.01376
-Longer Term Targets: 0.01494-0.01612 Region
My Reasons for Entering This Trade:
- RSI is oversold on the daily, currently at around 35
- Stoch RSI is slowly approaching buy zone on the daily
- Volume is decreasing, which points toward a large move either down or up in the near future
Negatives:
- RSI could go even lower if it wanted too, lowest RSI on record is around 23
- MACD seems to be at a complete standstill on the daily
- MFI could continue to go down as well
Let me know if you have any criticisms or ideas that would help support or correct my claims! GOOD LUCK :)
EUR/NZD - BUY OPORTUNITY (SWING)hello traders
we are reaching the bottom of the channel!
4hr heavily oversold and daily reaching oversold zone also.
A good oportunity for long here with good risk reward ratio!
As always we wait for reversal signs!
What is your opinion on this trade?
Also im thinking of opening a free Telegram signals group for everyone of my followers, so you can follow my trades and posts daily?
Would you be interested? Please comment below!