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Overvalued

The most important chart in Bitcoin: Metcalfe's lawSorry, I didn't know how to do it here on tradingview. My very smart girlfriend Jixuan Wang used the program R to import and plot the real bitcoin price versus the Metcalfe price: ibb.co Orange is real price from exchanges, green is Metcalfe price, which can be calculated from the number of the daily transactions squared: P = C* T². P=price C= a constant, chosen such that the fit is good T = number of daily transactions If orange above green: BTC IS OVERPRICED If green above orange: BTC IS UNDERPRICED We are currently overpriced, same as in 2014/2015. This is one of the main reasons why I believe that this bearmarket will still go on for 1 more year.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
6
Overvalued AMDIncreasing revenue, assets and decreasing liabilities throughout 2016 are definitely telling us company's doing good. However, sixfold increase in price is nuts compared to AMD's actual achievements. Ratios support this point of view: PE: 241.40 (forward PE, current one is negative) Intel's PE: 17.98 Price/Book: 29.01 Intel's Price/Book: 2.86 Be careful, now bullish, will still be going up, but likely hit the ceiling soon. Earnings are on the 17th of January, will keep an eye on it at the time.
NASDAQ:AMD
by trader123qwark
NFLX: Going short hereI have been looking to short NFLX, and after my stint with it failed, I think Tim West's reccomendation makes a lot of sense. He's been holding shorts from considerably higher, and had posted about it in the 'Key Hidden Levels chatroom' recently once again. You can refer to his publications for more information, or ask questions in chat if you have any. My trade entry is as follows: short at market stop, stop at 103.57, risking 1% of capital on it. Good luck if taking this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by IvanLabrie
5
MSFT Microsoft - The Emperor Without (As Many) Clothes Maybe that is too extreme, but it hopefully caught your attention: I put a short sale recommendation last summer and MSFT and it had an excellent down-move from that publication. Now MSFT has made another earnings announcement and it has made a new high, it's time to revisit and see what valuation looks like. Well, the valuation is a problem. The PSR or Price-to-Sales Ratio. The value of the company as a multiple of the underlying revenues of the firm is up to and above the peak of 4.77 times seen at the 2010 high. And back then MSFT had 25%+ and rising margins and today they have 13.5% and declining margins. That is a huge difference. Revenues are experiencing slower growth these days, far from the strong growth MSFT saw through the 1980's-1990's and 2000's. I believe there is a time when you have to just vote with your feet and walk away from investments. Timing the ultimate demise (50% decline and no recovery) is a whole different business and one which I love to be part of and attempt to help you get in and get out investments at the right time to experience the least amount of stress, dissonance, doubt, or financial loss while at the same time getting the maximum gain possible given the risk taken. MSFT 54.17 last, November 9th Monday's close. I rate MSFT a "SELL" - "EXIT" - "UNDERPERFORM" the market going forward. If it doesn't underperform, the market must know something I don't or the people that buy MSFT just have more money than sense at this level. Ok, that sounds harsh. But, maybe I'll do even more research and see what I can find to prove myself wrong. Feel free to add your fundamental insights. (Fundamental replies so far from users: Read the MSFT annual report to see their migration to the cloud from the desktop. Microsoft has been playing catch-up to Google-Docs.) Tim 8:37AM - I published this Monday morning Nov 9th before the open for the KEY HIDDEN LEVELS CHAT ROOM and for TWITTER followers of @87spider, but made it "private" accidentally. I'm sharing it with the overall TradingView community now.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by timwest
8
Virgin Airlines: Up or down?Virgin Airlines was a growth stock turned sour. Even with fuel hedging and increase in revenue the market still does not approve VA and hence cause it's decline since it's high at december. Technical: Based on the chart, there are 2 anomalies that one should take note when trading this. 1) Between $30(green line) and $26.42 (blue horizontal line), the price has found support. This is a crucial zone and it is absolutely crucial that you do not enter the trade unless you are very very sure of the fundamentals else you will be catching a falling knife. This is known as the accumulation/distribution phase where thousands of shares are being exchanged with no prior direction. It is also where liquidity is highest and many "big boys" are either unloading or loading up stock. Do check insider transactions for more info 2) The descending triangle is marked by the same support level and a decreasing resistance. Based on bulkowski's formula that sets price target based on probability. I have marked where the predicted price would go. Fundamentals: Simplywall.st did DCF calculations and found it's fair value at around $14. This is close to Bulkowski's formula's prediction. VA is overvalued based on cash flow studies. However based on traditional ratio metrics VA is undervalued. P/E stands at 6.52. PEG stands at 0.26. P/S stands at 0.81 and EV/EBITDA stands at 4.67. They do have quite a bit of debt but their cash flow could easily pay it off. Story: Investors believe oil and the Zika virus would affect sales of this stock heavily and hence they are bearish about it. Would I go long? Yes! Once the price exited the $30 zone. Would I go Short? Also yes!. Only of the price drops below $26.42! Would I do anything now? No! I'm not catching a falling knife. Market is ??? about this stock. So trade after breakouts.
V
by soldierducky
CMG: A shortI am bearish on CMG in a short term sense. Story/fundamental/technical wise Technical: The price has breached the 200 Weekly SMA and shows weak price action. I am expecting a drop but I am unsure where it stops. Fundamentals: CMG is over valued and based on classical valuation based on DCF, CMG's fair value is at $288. Which is a big drop. In terms of PE and PS it is undervalued as well. However, since it is a growth stocks and it assumed that earnings are used for growth, EV/EBITDA still shows decent valuation of 14 Story wise: Many would have known about the e coli scare and causes a drop on stores sales. Though as a food scientist this food scare is actually very small. However, due to fear (funny enough from wall street) the stock may see further decline. For short term players CMG is a good short but once there is a good time I will get long since it is a favourable food restaurant and also have big room for growth.
NYSE:CMGShort
by soldierducky
Delta Airlines -DAL - Weekly -Touched 1x's sales in 2014Delta is just off of an extreme level of valuation as it backs down to $43.36 today, May 22, 2015. If you look at the Total Revenue chart, you can see that revenue gains were steady and have increased by 42% since 5 years ago in May. Over the same time frame, however, the stock price has risen by 267%. After-tax margins went from losses to profits and margins briefly climbed over 20% (after-tax). Next questions: Did DAL use up all of their tax-loss carry forwards? Will the drop in oil prices lead consumers to spend more on travel? Will people fly on vacations more or will driving still be the best choice. DAL has been a monster winner for any portfolio up until now, but Airlines are a cyclical business and the business cycle hasn't been outlawed. Consolidation and efficiencies have driven up profitability, and shareholders have been richly rewarded. It looks like there are more "shareholders" than "share-buyers" at this level and the recent price action is alerting us to sellers unloading shares. $46 seems to be the common price where the sellers are unloading shares and the strong buyers are down at $34-$30. So, from $43.30 here, the upside seems less than the risk to the downside. Here's hoping you look at the fundamentals too when you examine a chart and not just the "technimentals".... Cheers, Tim 5/22/2015 2:02 PM EST 43.31 last DAL PS - Note - I have been picking a top in DAL over the past year +. Check out my charts.
NYSE:DALShort
by timwest
3
Priceline.Com PCLN -Daily -Key Hidden Level Stops RallyA big reversal off of the 1260 level last Friday helped PCLN look like it had turned solidly back up and the gap up Monday morning lifted it right within sight of the 2 "Key Hidden Levels - Resistance" lines, one at 1292 and the next at 1300. The valuation bloat in these strong growth stocks is enormous, so it isn't easy to short these stocks, but with key-levels posted on the chart, you can see where companies release their earnings and update their forecasts and analysts make most of their comments because it is summarized by the dark green line on the chart, drawn automatically for you. The big drop in March this year occurred after PCLN spent an entire day below its "key-hidden-level" noted with the blue-circle. Note also how the market didn't really "hold" the key-support line on the pullback from 1380 to 1294 as the market chopped around at that level. You can see how important these levels are in the chart of PCLN. Consider a subscription to "Key Hidden Levels" at Marketplace Add-Ons section of Indicators. Tim 1276.75 last 8/26/2014 9:48AM EST
PShort
by timwest
1