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Crude Oil Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022Crude Oil Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 5.83%, down from 6.3% last week according to OVX data (OIL Volatility Index ) With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 80th percentile, while according to OVX, we are on 77h percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 4.75% movement Bearish: 5.1% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 29.1% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 85.3 BOT: 75.2 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 65% probability we are going to touch previous low of 77.5 31% probability we are going to touch previous high of 90.1 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 66% of the weekly moving averages are in a bearish trend, and a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 30% bearish stance
NYMEX:CL1!
by exlux
OVX - Crude Oil VolatilityThe current volatility is above historical volatility, traders anticipate higher volatility for Price in the Short to Intermediate-Term. Crude Oil WTI Jan '22 (CLF22) 66.26s -0.24 (-0.36%) Crude Oil WTI Feb '22 (CLG22) 66.10s -0.17 (-0.26%) Crude Oil WTI Mar '22 (CLH22) 65.93s -0.10 (-0.15%) Crude Oil WTI Jun '22 (CLM22) 65.26s +0.02 (+0.03%) Crude Oil WTI Dec '22 (CLZ22) 63.69s +0.26 (+0.41%) _______________________________________________________________________________ Currently, the Term Structure for Crude Oil is in very slight Backwardation. The Teem Structure is flattening somewhat - this will change in time, for now it is in the Confidence Cycle interest to keep things tightly aligned, both Up and Down. CL remains a hostage to further News Cycle surrounding OPEC's attempt to support Price to the best of their abilities within reason. They do not want to spook the Market but instead will attempt stability in the very short term.
CBOE:OVX
by HK_L61
OVX - Crude Oil Volatility to Increase 2X @ MinmumThe Gunslingers were lit up again. OVX is just beginning its move Higher. Oil can decline to as low as $35 was the OVX to repeat the Sins of the Past @ 517. Were it merely to double from here to fill the Gap, $57 OIL was our of Target several Months ago... it may finally come to trade barring any major disruption(s). More $ is lost Retail buying the Dips on the way down than in almost any other Commodity. It is a Face Ripping exercise when Oil corrects to its intended FILL. Any excuse will do, it is far more manipulated than any other Commodity, including Gold - the Relic of prior Monetary Malfeasance.
CBOE:OVX
by HK_L61
░░░░▒▒▒▓▓ CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index ▓▓▒▒▒░░░░Hello. My name is François Normandeau. This is an ADX-BRIEFING video focused on CBOE:OVX The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (CBOE:OVX) can be used in order to identify important trading opportunities. Here, OVX is on the right side of this post. The indicators we see under the price window of OVX mention when the US Oil market TVC:USOIL enters a period of statistically significant volatility . We can then time it with the indicators on West Texas Intermediate in order to determine entries and exits for actual trades. More info can be found in the TradingView IDEA related to this post. Wishing you a great weekend. François Normandeau Institutional Research Director at ADX-BRIEFING
CBOE:OVX
by Pine_Academy
░░░░▒▒▒▓▓ CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index ▓▓▒▒▒░░░░Hello. My name is François Normandeau. This is an ADX-BRIEFING snapshot focused on CBOE:OVX The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (CBOE:OVX) can be used in order to identify important trading opportunities. Here, OVX is on the right side of this post. The indicators we see under the price window of OVX mention when the US Oil market TVC:USOIL enters a period of statistically significant volatility. We can then time it with the indicators on West Texas Intermediate in order to determine entries and exits for actual trades. More info can be found in the video related to this post. Wishing you a great weekend. François Normandeau Institutional Research Director at ADX-BRIEFING
TVC:USOIL
by Pine_Academy
2
HIGH VOL: KEEP WATCHING!!!Look guys, this is the same Fib retracement that has HELD since the Jan-Feb selloff. Do not take my word for it. Look at my previous predictions, load the new data, and see how much money was made. MPC has had a history of bucking the market. When SPX was down 2%, this was down 7%. When SPX was up 3%, this was up over 8.5%. This is a lower liquidity, higher volatility play. I am NEUTRAL on MPC. To be honest, I've put no money into for a long time. Money could have been made straddling the 2nd fib level, but the reaction to Brexit (not the market reaction to Brexit itself) has caused everybody to look at everything closer, and rightly so.) Here's what we know: MPC is range-bound in the 2nd fib level. We also know it's good for a 8% pop or drop in a one session. Is that within your risk tolerance?? It's not within mine. Conclusion: IF YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TRADE, DO NOT TRADE. I honestly would not look at this stock until after earnings (July 28th). That will give the market plenty of time to digest new capital inflows from stock buy-backs, and allow for a reaction that may be based on technicals vs. fundamentals. There is money to be made, but patience is a virtue. If you see something I don't?....Please share! I need to eat too...
NYSE:MPC
by nodiggity
1
Time to buy MPC? This is a simple overlay of MPC and OVX. They share an inverse relationship with the most recent cross at the first session of 2016. Since then, OVX has skyrocketed, and MPC tanked eventually finding some support at $29. Previous support is near the high teens, but those are early historical lows. Since the MPC $29 support, there appears to be a technical base for MPC to rise to $50, at the mid to lower end of analysts price targets for this stock. There is more upside to being long MPC than being short OVX. What I'm saying is that OVX need not cross with MPC for the refiner's stock to rise. What I'm saying is MPC is oversold, and OVX is one reason to go long this stock.
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
1
Time to buy MPC? OVX might be a reason why. This is a simple overlay of MPC and INDEX:OVX . The chart is self-explanatory. I'm not saying these two will cross, but so long as they converge, it is a good sign to be long MPC. The stock itself is oversold. It has lost half it's market cap since early Dec. Since free-falling, it has found a nice bottom at $29. Buying MPC in the low $30s and holding until April could bring us closer to the $55-70 valuation. Selling at $50 is more in line at the lower end of analysts revised expectations. If INDEX:OVX stabilizes, and INDEX:SPX decides to capitulate, overlay MPC with the S&P, and you'll find that this stock has historically bucked the market. Disclosure: I am long MPC.
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
2