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Dangers of Giving Up Too Soon on a Trading Strategy GOLD, FOREX There are hundreds of different strategies to trade. Some of them are losing ones, some provide modest results and some strategies are very profitable. Novice traders often struggle to find the right strategy that suits their personality, financial goals and risk appetite. Unfortunately, they also tend to make some common mistakes that can undermine their performance and confidence. ❌ One of the biggest mistakes that they make in their search is that they give a strategy a very short trial period. It simply means that they are trying to assess the validity of the strategy, trading that for a very short time span (usually a day to a week). Please, realize the fact that the performance of the strategy can be measured only with extended backtesting - meaning that the strategy should be tested on multiple financial instruments and for a long period of time and applying multiple evaluation metrics. Moreover, if the strategy proves its efficiency on backtesting, it should be traded on a demo account at least 2 months before the valid performance can be calculated. ❌ Another common mistake is that many traders drop the strategy once it starts losing. And by losing, I mean just 2–3 trades in a row. Newbies are searching for the approach that never loses. They may even abandon a trading strategy once they catch JUST ONE bad trade. ✅ In contrast, a smart trader realizes that one bad trade does not define the performance of the strategy. Moreover, such a trader calmly faces the losing streaks and sticks to the strategy. Take a look at that picture. On the top, we have the traits of a newbie trader and his equity curve. He abandons the strategy after he faces the loss, not giving the strategy a chance to recover. When he changes the strategy, he starts recovering a little bit and a losing period follows. He drops a strategy again, and he keeps following this vicious cycle till his entire account is blown. On the bottom of the picture, we see the equity curve of a smart trader. Even though he faces losses occasionally, his strategy always gives him a chance to recover and with time his trading account steadily grows. Please, realize the fact that a perfect strategy does not exist. You will lose the money occasionally anyway. What distinguishes a smart trader from a dumb one is his discipline and trust to his trading system and willingness to face losses. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
XAGUSD: Buy opportunity inside this Channel Up.Silver has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.179, MACD = 0.256, ADX = 29.375) as it posted a strong rebound this week, despite today's temporary pullback. This rebound took place at the bottom of the medium term Channel Up, pricing its HL. We are still at the start of this wave and we expect to repeat the +16% rise of the previous one. The trade is long, TP = 35.500. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by InvestingScope
Dow Jones Volatility Daytrading AnalysisI am writing this post to organize my thoughts on ATR and Volatility. I have noticed that there are three different phases of Volatility. Low Medium High Using the 1 period ATR on the Daily chart, the high to low movement indicates what kind of Volatility one can expect. Low Volatility is when, on average, the daily high to low is around 300 ticks +/- 300 ticks is just a number. What I am looking for is the percentage. Low Volatility seems to be when the high/low movement of the day is around 0.50%-0.70% of the price of Dow Jones. Example: If Dow Jones is at 85,000, then 0.60% would be 510. Therefore, a low volatility day within this price range would be 510 ticks on average. Because Dow Jones is at on average 44,000 then a low volatility day using 0.60% would be 265 ticks. This is in line with 300 ticks on average. On the 15-minute time frame, using the 14 period ATR, I try to line up the peaks of the ATR values. In this case, it lines up to around 50 ticks. This information is vital in knowing how big stop losses and targets should be. If a low volatility day is around 300 ticks, then does it make sense to go for 300 tick moves? Depending on your risk to reward preferences, you can use ATR in a myriad of ways. I personally use 1.25 times the 15-minute peak ATR as this is my entry time frame. The peaks are on average 50 ticks. This would give me an ATR stop loss of 62.50. I would round it up to 65 ticks. If I was to take this hypothetical trade, I would use the 65 ticks stop and using 2.5 risk to reward, I would use 165 tick targets. If one would like to go for a 1 to 1, then they can use twice the peak ATR of 50 ( 100 ticks ) and go for 100 tick targets. Medium Volatility is around 580-600 ticks on the daily chart, or 1.25% from high to low. On the 15-minute chart, this would be 90 ticks using the peaks of the 14 period ATR. Using 1.25 times the ATR, I would arrive at 115 ticks for stop loss and using 2.5 risk to reward, I would target 290 ticks. This would give the trade room to play out. High Volatility is around 850 ticks and above. On the 15-minute chart, High volatility is 135 ticks. Using my same 1.25 time ATR, the stop loss would be 170 ticks and the target 425 ticks, using 2.5 risk to reward. If I were to take this hypothetical trade, and even having a not-so-great entry, using a 170 tick stop loss would allow me to take some heat on the trade but still stay in. Going for 2.5R, I would target 425 ticks. Taking this other hypothetical trade, one could still be in the trade and achieve the profit goal without getting pinged out by wicks. This allows a trader to not have the pressures of being so pinpoint accurate on their entries and to allow a trade to play out without getting pinged off the trade. We are not brain surgeons and therefore, do not need to be highly accurate and precise. You can be an average trader with good technical skills and still achieve success. Using the ATR indicator is an art form and is not rigid in its application. You have to use judgement calls when reading the numbers. It is not a fool proof indicator and sometimes you will under or overcompensate what number to use. I hope this post was helpful for anybody and feel free to leave comments down below on your thoughts. Thank you.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
BTCUSD: Bottom formed. Road to $150k started.Bitcoin has turned neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 50.811, MACD = -265.000, ADX = 36.155) as it recovered some losses from last week. The most important outcome is that both last week and so far the current one, the 1W candle entered the long term Support Zone comprised of the 1W MA25/MA50 and rebounded over it. This is the Zone that has produced all HL bottoms of the 2 year Channel Up. As the 1W RSI is also about to enter its multiyear Buy Zone, we expect the bottom to be formed within 4-6 weeks max and then start the standard +97.97% rally it printed on all three prior bullish waves. The trade is long, TP = 150,000. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by InvestingScope
All About NASDAQ100 Corrections! 18 Times, 2000% Gain, 5800 DaysHappy Friday! From November 2008 to February 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index has grown by over 2000%! Yes, that’s a 20x increase! This tech giant, made up of the 100 leading technology stocks, has shown impressive strength. For comparison, the S&P 500 has risen about 820% in the same period. A great performance but Nasdaq 100 leaves it far behind. Has this been a straight-line rise? As you can see, not really. Looking back, it may seem like the perfect investment. But the road was not smooth. Nasdaq 100’s success came with painful drops, investor panic, and moments when it felt like the market would never recover. From the outside, everything looks great. But would you sit through a 30% drop, while the news is screaming about the "end of the world"? I guess not! So, I decided to analyze every correction of 10% or more since the market bottom in 2008. - How long do corrections and recoveries last? - How often do they happen? - What should investors know? - Can this help you in any way? DATA ANALYSIS - 18 corrections in Nasdaq 100 (2008–2025), -10% or more. Retracement Stats: - Average drop: -15% - Median drop: -13% - Biggest drop: -37.72% - Smallest drop: -10% Only once has a 10% retracement marked the bottom. Right now, the Nasdaq 100 is sitting at that -10% level, with 20,000 as a key support zone. Will it hold? Statistically, there could still be room to fall. Correction Length (17 completed corrections): How many days does a correction last from the peak to the bottom? - Average: 60 days - Median: 35 days - Longest: 325 days - Shortest: 14 days Recovery Time: From bottom back to new highs. - Average: 165 days (~5.5 months) - Median: 119 days (~4 months) - Longest: 752 days (over 2 years) - Shortest: 42 days (~1.5 months) Correction Frequency If we take a rough estimate, in 5800 days, there were 18 corrections, which means a correction happens every 322 days (~10.5 months) on average. Total Time Spent in Corrections vs. Rising Markets - Corrections lasted 1016 days - Recoveries lasted 2801 days - Total time spent in "work mode": 3817 days - Total "smooth uptrend" days: 1983 days (~5.4 years) Basically, like a hardworking employee – the market spends more time struggling than rising! What Can Investors Learn from This? 1. Accept Volatility Knowing that market swings are normal, investors can keep a long-term perspective and avoid panic-selling during downturns. 2. Nasdaq 100 Has Always Recovered In the long run, Nasdaq 100 has always bounced back to new highs. Each recovery has been different, but so far, making new all-time highs has never been a problem. 3. Make Better Decisions Understanding psychological biases helps investors make rational choices and manage risks better. 4. Market Drops = Opportunities, Not Threats Most big market rallies started when most investors were too scared to buy. "A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." – Warren Buffett Market drops always feel unique and scary but history shows they follow repeating patterns. And those who keep their emotions in check have the best opportunities. "The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets." – Baron Rothschild Final Thoughts: Is the current -10% retracement a buying opportunity? No one knows for sure but history suggests - stay calm! So, that's all, Like & Boost if you found this useful! 🚀 For you, it’s just a click, for me, it’s a sign that I’m not alone here. 💡 The same article, with all the informative pictures, is also in my Substack channel! Find the link in my BIO (under the Website icon) , or if you're using mobile just scroll down to my signature to choose your preferred language. Have great weekend, Vaido 💬 Before you leave... What’s your take on the current Nasdaq 100 correction? Drop your thoughts in the comments 👇
NASDAQ:NDXEducation
by VaidoVeek
THE KOG REPORT - NFPTHE KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. Firstly, we would suggest traders stay away from this NFP altogether, the markets are very delicate and moving to extreme levels not only on Gold but most forex pairs. For that reason we’ll keep it simple and look at the key levels together with the structure formed. We have the higher resistance level here which is the previous order region 2930-35 which looks to be a potential region price may want to attack if they want to continue this move upside, above that is the extension of the move around 2945-55. Price needs to stay below this level, If we can reject and not break above these levels, an opportunity to see the market correct may be available back down in attempt to break 2900 level. On the flip, if they push price downside, we’ll wait, the range needs to be broken, price should want to retest the flip and then continue the move, that’s when we can start using the red boxes to target those lower levels and potentially look for the swing low from the circled hotspot. As above, keep it simple, the trade comes after the event and most accounts are blown during these events due to traders using large lots on small accounts attempting to capture the volume driven candles. Unless you’re already in and protected, the swing in the opposite direction can cause huge problems to less experienced traders. RED BOXES: Break above 2930 for 2934, 2940, 2944 and 2955 in extension of the move Break below 2910 for 2903, 2895, 2890 and 2879 in extension of the move Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
USDJPYFundamental analysis will always define USD/JPY's directional bias, based on recent forecasts and market dynamics: *(As of Friday, March 7, 2025)* 1. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Non-Farm Employment Change: Actual 151k Forecast 159K vs. Previous 143K Unemployment Rate:actual 4.1% Forecast 4.0% vs. Previous 4.0% Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):actual 0.3% Forecast 0.3% vs. Previous 0.5% Impact: Stronger-than-expected jobs/wage growth: Likely supports the USD by reinforcing Fed rate-cut delays, boosting USD/JPY. Weaker data: Could weaken the USD if markets price in faster Fed easing, favoring JPY strength. Department: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). 2. US Consumer Credit (m/m) actual 18.1B ,Forecast: $15.6B vs. Previous $40.8B Impact: A sharp decline could signal weaker consumer spending, weighing on USD sentiment. Department: Federal Reserve. 3. BoJ Policy Signals Key Event: BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reiterated that further rate hikes are possible if inflation sustains above 2%. Impact: Hawkish BoJ rhetoric (next meeting: April 9) could strengthen JPY, pressuring USD/JPY downward. 4. US Tariff Policies Risk: President Trump’s tariffs on China/Canada have raised fears of Japan being targeted next. Trade tensions could: Boost JPY: As a safe-haven currency during geopolitical uncertainty. Weaken JPY: If tariffs harm Japan’s export-driven economy. 5. Fed Speeches Recent Tone: Fed Chair Powell emphasized data dependency but warned of inflation risks from tariffs. Impact: Hawkish Fed commentary supports USD; dovish hints favor JPY. Bullish USD/JPY Case: Triggers: Strong NFP/wage growth + Fed delays rate cuts + BoJ delays further hikes. Target: Retest 149.75–152.00. Bearish USD/JPY Case: Triggers: Weak US jobs data + BoJ rate-hike bets + Safe-haven JPY demand (tariff risks). Departments Responsible for Data Releases US Jobs/Inflation Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). BoJ Policy: Bank of Japan (Governor Ueda/Deputy Uchida). Summary USD/JPY’s near-term direction hinges on: US Labor Market Strength (NFP/wages). BoJ’s Rate-Hike Timeline (April meeting). Trade War Escalation Risks (Trump tariffs). Traders should monitor these catalysts for breakout opportunities.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
Amazon - Catch The Parabolic Rally Now!Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) will start the parabolic rally: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Just a couple of months ago, we finally saw the expected all time high breakout on Amazon. Following the overall governing rising channel pattern, I simply do expect the acceleration of the current rally, the creation of a parabolic rally, but maybe we will see a bullish retest first. Levels to watch: $180, $400 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by basictradingtv
15
BTCUSDT 15-Minute Analysis | Potential Rejection & Drop to 82KIn this BTCUSDT analysis, I am expecting a short-term bullish move into the highlighted supply zone around $88,200 - $89,000, followed by a strong rejection leading to a downward move toward $85,300 and potentially $82,000. Entry Zone: Near $88,200 - $89,000 Stop Loss: Above $90,015 Target 1: $85,300 Target 2: $82,000 The price structure suggests a liquidity grab before a potential bearish leg. If BTC fails to hold the $85,300 support, a deeper drop toward $82,000 is likely. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! 🚀📉
Short
by ayushpanchal92
3
Sell Trade Strategy for BNX: Navigating Market Risks in GameFiDescription: This trading idea focuses on BNX (BinaryX), a cryptocurrency tied to the GameFi sector, which has experienced both rapid growth and increased volatility. BNX plays a key role in blockchain gaming, particularly in play-to-earn ecosystems, but its long-term sustainability depends on user retention, continuous innovation, and market adoption. As interest in GameFi fluctuates and competition increases, BNX may face challenges related to declining user engagement, regulatory uncertainty, and shifts in investor sentiment. These factors could contribute to downward price pressure, making it a potential opportunity for a sell trade. Despite the potential for short-term price fluctuations, the cryptocurrency market remains unpredictable. External influences such as project developments, macroeconomic conditions, and broader market trends can impact BNX's performance, necessitating caution and a well-planned risk management strategy. Disclaimer: This trading idea is for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies like BNX involves substantial risk, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. Always conduct thorough research, assess your financial situation, and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Short
by MoonTradingForecast
1
Amd - Please Look At The Structure!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is about to retest massive support: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 For about 5 years Amd has been trading in a decent rising channel formation. That's exactly the reason for why we saw the harsh drop starting in the beginning of 2024. But as we are speaking, Amd is about to retest a massive confluence of support which could lead to a beautiful reversal. Levels to watch: $100 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by basictradingtv
8
US30 - Bearish Pressure Builds Below 42,385 Ahead NFPUS30 Analysis & Market Impact – March 7, 2025 The price dropped perfectly as we mentioned yesterday. 🔍 Technical Outlook: Stability above 42588 will support a rise to get 42850 as a resistance line and then should drop to 42385 from 42850. However, the bearish area will be activated if it can close a 4h or 1h candle below 42385, then will drop strongly toward 41785. 🌍 Market Sentiment & Trade Impact: NFP and job reports and Powell speech. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 42850| 43020| 43210 Support: 42385 | 41790 | 41560
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi