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AUDUSDAUD/USD Trade Directional Bias and Central Bank Impact Current AUD/USD Overview (April 2025) AUD/USD is will face 0.65362 a critical resistance zone which is also a break of demand floor ,after the weekly candle breaks 0.63675 that has capped gains throughout 2025. The pair faces mixed signals from central bank policies, technical levels, and geopolitical risks. Below is a breakdown of key drivers: Central Bank Leaders and Policy Outlook RBA Michele Bullock Cautiously dovish: Held rates at 4.10% in April but signaled openness to cuts if inflation eases. Prioritizes data dependency amid U.S. tariff uncertainty, RBA next meeting will be 7 May 2025 ) Rate cuts (expected in May/July) could weaken AUD. Fed Jerome Powell Under political pressure: Trump criticizes Powell for "keeping rates too high." Markets price in 2025 rate cuts if U.S. inflation cool.the next fed meeting will be 14–15 May 2025 (Next FOMC) ,if feds remains Dovish ,Fed shifts would weaken USD, boosting AUD/USD. Key Economic Calendar Events RBA Meetings (7 May, 18 June, 6 August) A 25 bps cut is 80% priced for May and fully priced for July. Bullock’s cautious tone suggests cuts depend on inflation and tariff impacts. U.S. Inflation Data (10 May, 12 June) Softer CPI/PPI could accelerate Fed rate cuts, weakening USD. U.S.-China Trade Developments Escalating tariffs (e.g., Trump’s 10% levy on Australian imports) risk AUD downside, but de-escalation could boost risk sentiment. Conclusion AUD/USD’s bias leans cautiously bullish if Fed dovishness outweighs RBA easing, but bearish risks persist from tariff tensions and RBA cuts. Key levels to watch: Monitor speeches by Bullock (RBA) and Powell (Fed), along with U.S. inflation data and RBA meeting outcomes, for directional cues.
Short
by Shavyfxhub
My US30 Outlook For MondayFor now, my bias on US30 is bullish. Based on the current price action and structure, I’m expecting continued buying pressure into the Supply Zones overhead. I'll be following the bullish momentum carefully and will maintain a buy bias until further notice, while staying alert for any signs of weakness or reversal as we approach key resistance areas. Just a reminder — I'm a regular guy who’s learning and improving every day in this trading journey. This is not financial advice — it’s simply my personal view based on my current analysis. Always do your own research and manage risk properly!
FX:US30Long
by bbonny69120
$ADA Cardano 3 rising valleys / 3 bar play!Real nice look here for Cardano, with the 3rd rising valley, and now the 3 bar play, a 3 candle pattern suggesting of bullish continuation. Given this is the weekly chart, i would put a lot of weight into this and cautiously say, this is where we finally get a real move here. Daily momentum continues rising with volatility, which is a characteristic of a strong bullish trend underway. Simultaneously, the daily ADX has begun to rise once again from under the newly Bullish DX cloud. This is the earliest signal that a new bullish trend is technically underway. If the 3 bar play fails, or fails to close with this weeks candle body engulfing last weeks, id consider that a subtle red flag. Price should not make a new low under this pattern from here on out.
Long
by TradingNomadic
Ethereum (ETH) – Strategic Trade PlanEthereum (ETH) continues to show resilience, currently trading around $1,790 after a strong bounce earlier this month. While the crypto market remains volatile, ETH is holding key technical levels that could fuel a major move in the coming weeks. 🎯 Entry Points: Market Price: $1,790 — Ideal for an early position, as ETH holds above critical support zones. $1,645 — Secondary strong support, aligning with the 20-day EMA; great for scaling in if market pulls back. $1,400 — Deep value zone, offering a high-risk/high-reward setup if broader market correction occurs. 💰 Profit Targets: $2,500 — First major resistance. A realistic mid-term target if bullish momentum sustains. $3,000 — Psychological milestone and breakout confirmation level. $3,800+ — Ambitious but achievable with broader crypto market recovery and strong ETH network metrics. 🛡️ Risk Management: Set stop-losses dynamically below each entry support level. Scale into positions progressively to manage volatility. Monitor macroeconomic trends and Bitcoin's influence closely. 🔍 Key Observations: Strong on-chain activity supports a bullish thesis. Current resistance around $1,812 must be broken to confirm bullish continuation. Be cautious of sudden market-wide corrections — always plan your exits and manage your risk accordingly. 📢 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and you should only invest what you can afford to lose. Always perform your own research before entering any position.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by Robert_V12
DOGE in the *Anger Phase*? Watch for the trap before the Rally 🚨 DOGE in the *Anger Phase*? Watch for the Trap Before the Rally Begins 📉 Based on recent price action and classic **market psychology cycles**, DOGE appears to be entering the **Anger Phase** — a point where many retail traders give up, blaming the market or external forces, while **smart money starts preparing to accumulate**. Let’s break down the pattern I'm watching: --- ### 🧠 **Psychology Analysis:** Using the well-known **Stock Market Psychology Cycle**, DOGE has already moved through: - **Euphoria (~$0.43)** - **Complacency → Denial (pullbacks to ~$0.28 and ~$0.20)** - **Panic and Capitulation (drop to ~$0.14)** 📌 Now, price is hovering in the **$0.12–$0.13** range — matching the sentiment of **Anger**, where people say: > *“This is manipulation! I’m done with this coin!”* ###🔮 **Price Forecast (My Playbook):** - 🚀 **Short-term relief rally to ~$0.19** — This would attract late buyers, creating a **bull trap**. - ⛔ **Pullback to ~$0.11** — Final shakeout, triggering stop-losses and "DOGE is dead" posts. - 🔥 **Strong reversal targeting $0.23+**, fueled by: - Tax season ending (April 15 effect) - Meme coin rotation - Potential DOGE narrative catalyst (as often happens unexpectedly) ### 🧭 **How I’m Playing It:** - Watching closely for rejection near **$0.19** - Planning to accumulate near **$0.11** if volume confirms support - Targeting **$0.23+** as the **Disbelief rally** kicks in Let me know your thoughts — do you see the same pattern playing out? #DOGEUSDT #CryptoPsychology #MarketCycles #TradingViewIdeas #MemeCoins #SmartMoneyMoves
Long
by SELIM_TRADING_
1
Microstructure Shift Observed — Scouting LTF Long Reversion PlayThe active short from 95,300.0 remains fully engaged, aligned with the 4H liquidity breakdown thesis, targeting broader downside expansion. This position will play out in full as per the original trade design, independent of lower timeframe fluctuations. However, emerging microstructure shifts—evidenced by reclaiming the Point of Control (94,500.0)—highlight a potential short-term structural reversal. Primary Position: Swing short thesis remains intact, allowing full downside potential to unfold. Secondary Opportunity: Scouting LTF long reversion setups for countertrend engagement, contingent on continued supply failure and structural stabilization above reclaimed pivots. This approach exemplifies multi-timeframe bias management: Primary bias (HTF) remains bearish, unchanged. Secondary bias (LTF) shifts toward opportunistic longs, with conditions monitored in real-time. Demonstrating conviction in core theses, while maintaining agility to capitalize on evolving microstructure.
by Kyle_Booth
PEPE Building Momentum – Eyes on 100 EMA BreakoutCRYPTOCAP:PEPE is respecting a rising trendline beautifully, with multiple successful touches (highlighted in yellow), showing strong underlying support. The price recently bounced again from this trendline, right above a key horizontal support zone. Additionally, the MACD indicator is turning positive, suggesting growing bullish momentum. Currently, PEPE is approaching the 100 EMA resistance. A clean breakout above the 100 EMA could open the path toward the key resistance zone above. DYOR, NFA
Long
by unichartz
Bitcoin Alternate Bearish CountsThere are quite a number of things I don't like about this count, but then as I've mentioned before, I always keep 2 counts and this will serve as a reference for a bearish scenario. In terms of risk-reward, for the purpose of trading, I actually favor this count because the stop loss is clear. Sometimes, I trade the alternate count because the risk is much lower than the primary count and a mistake (i.e. loss) can be recovered by flipping the trade direction when I'm stopped out. However, such trading is very involved and active and not recommended for everyone. Good luck!
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by yuchaosng
Analysis of the latest trend of gold prices: 3280-3360Analysis of the latest trend of gold prices: 3280-3360 Gold prices have fluctuated violently recently, with the rise and fall of one day equivalent to the rise and fall of the past few months. This has greatly increased the difficulty of trading. At the same time, it also magnified the leverage and profit and loss opportunities of the trading account. As shown in Figure 4h: The current gold price range fluctuates widely: 3280-3360 The market maintains a triangular oscillation pattern. Gold prices gradually rebounded after the trend line support, and the medium- and long-term bullish trend began to emerge. Short-term upper key suppression: around 3360 Continued rise further strengthens the bullish signal. Support level: focus on the 3260-3290-3300 line If it stands firm, it will look up to the 3350-3360 area; It is expected that Monday will show a wide range of fluctuations, and the overall range will remain at 3370-3260. After breaking through this position, you can follow up and do more. Repeated sweeps are still the main theme, and there is no clear direction signal. The upper pressure level is around 3350-3360. If the rebound continues at the opening of next week, pay attention to this position. If it breaks through, pay attention to 3370-3380. The lower support level is 3288 and 3260. The operation is mainly based on shocks, and try to participate in band operations near key positions. Operation suggestions: Gold is long near 3290 Stop loss: 3280 Target: 3325, 3240! If the upper 3248 pressure is not broken, you can short in the opposite direction!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Emily_Blunt2222
GOLD WEEKLY - Key Events to Watch: ADP, Core PCE, Non-Farm📌 Weekly Gold Outlook – Key Events to Watch: ADP, Core PCE, Non-Farm Payrolls 📉📈 🌍 Fundamental Overview Last week, gold faced heavy selling pressure after failing to sustain its rally above the $3,450 level. Easing concerns over the US–China trade tensions and a stronger US Dollar — supported by stronger-than-expected Durable Goods Orders — triggered a sharp correction in Price. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to adopt a cautious stance, awaiting clearer economic data before adjusting its monetary policy. Meanwhile, recent figures from both the US and China show signs of economic resilience, reducing safe-haven demand for gold in the short term. Key Events This Week: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Core PCE Price Index m/m Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Volatility is expected to rise sharply as these major economic indicators are released. 📊 Technical Analysis – XAU/USD 2H Chart Gold is currently undergoing a corrective phase after its strong rally earlier this month. Price is forming a descending channel and consolidating around critical support and resistance zones. Immediate Resistance: 3,325 – 3,377 Immediate Support: 3,275 – 3,235 As long as Price remains capped below 3,325, the bearish bias will remain dominant. 🧩 Main Scenarios for This Week Short-Term Rebound: Price may retest the 3,275–3,277 area before sellers regain control. Medium-Term Bearish Pressure: If Price fails to reclaim the 3,325 resistance zone, it could break lower toward 3,235, 3,197, and potentially deeper into the 3,108 or 3,066 liquidity zones. Bullish Reversal Scenario: A sustained breakout and close above 3,377 would invalidate the bearish outlook and suggest a move toward the 3,420 target. 🔍 Key Price Zones for This Week Resistance: 3,325 → 3,377 → 3,420 Support: 3,275 → 3,235 → 3,197 → 3,108 → 3,066 🧠 Suggested Trading Strategy Prefer short positions when Price retraces toward the 3,275 – 3,325 resistance zone, aiming for downside targets at 3,235 and 3,197. Be cautious with long positions: only consider buying if Price drops deeply into 3,108 or 3,066 and shows strong support reaction. ⚡ Note: Given the upcoming releases of ADP, Core PCE, and Non-Farm Payrolls, the market is expected to experience significant volatility. Stay disciplined and await detailed intra-week updates around key event times.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading