The next push is expected to face strong resistance at 112,000The bull run has been ongoing since October 2023, and we are beginning to reach the final stages. This is the final push, likely a significant one, but there is strong long-term resistance and trends around the $115,000 mark. Altcoins are starting to gain momentum, but institutions are accumulating and absorbing new supplies, putting upward pressure on Bt prices. The U.S. dollar (DXY) is weak, making Bitcoin appear artificially high compared to alternative currencies, such as the Sterling and Euro, with a new all-time high roughly 15% away for GBP and only 2% for dollar.
The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is currently high, indicating that a significant proportion of holders are in profit, which places us in a state of greed. Short-term holders are selling their positions, while long-term holders continue to accumulate. However, this trend is likely to lose momentum in the next price increase, as long-term holders may sell to free up capital for a potential bear market.
Furthermore, inflation remains high, and retail investors are finding it challenging to invest, which makes it less likely that they will engage with Bitcoin at its current levels. This indicates that a period of enthusiasm among retail investors is less probable. Additionally, outflows from ETFs have been shown to quickly impact prices negatively.
Bitcoin is projected to continue its price discovery upwards, potentially reaching $112,000 and possibly even higher before fear sets in, leading to profit-taking, which could significantly affect the price. Many investors may perceive this as a peak and anticipate a subsequent bear market.
While this cycle could be different, I remain skeptical. I believe that what I term GOB (Greed, Overconfidence, and Belief), which is the opposite of FOMO, will come into play and lead to a market crash.
