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Ethereum Weekly Analysis: Double Top BreakdownHello guys! Ethereum has formed a clear double top pattern on the weekly timeframe — a strong bearish reversal signal. The pattern is confirmed by: 🔹 A break of the ascending trendline 🔹 Strong rejection from the $3,200–$3,400 resistance zone 🔹 Current price action hovering near $1,780 🧭 Target of the double top pattern lies in the $1,350–$1,450 zone — aligned with a low-volume area on the volume profile, which could act as a magnet for price. Key Takeaways: If ETH fails to reclaim the $2,000 zone, more downside pressure is likely. A bounce may occur in the target zone, providing a possible mid-term long opportunity. 📌 Stay cautious and watch for reaction zones, especially if ETH reaches the $1,400 region. You can buy it at $1400!
Short
by melikatrader94
9
EUR/USD Triangle Breakout (07.04.2025)The EUR/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 1.0825 2nd Support – 1.0719 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
7
BTC - One More Leg...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📉 BTC has been overall bearish , trading within the falling channel marked in red. But the big question is — where could the potential bottom be? 👉 I’m watching the $70,000 zone! Here’s why: The $70,000 area is a key confluence zone — it aligns with the lower red trendline, horizontal support, a psychological round number, and a potential demand zone. 📚 According to my trading style: As #BTC approaches the blue circle zone, I’ll be looking for bullish reversal setups — such as a double bottom pattern, trendline break, and more. 📚 Reminder: Always stick to your trading plan — entry, risk management, and trade management are key. Good luck, and happy trading! All Strategies Are Good, If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TICKMILL:BTCUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
11
+300 pips EURUSD swing trade setup SELL HIGH🏆 EURUSD Market Update 📊 Technical Outlook 🔸Short-term: BULLS 1150 🔸Mid-term: BEARS 0670 🔸Status: REVERSAL from S/R 🔸0660/0680 normal pullback 🔸BULLS will max out at 1150 🔸Price Target Bears: 0660/0680 🔸Price Target BULLS: 1140/1160 📊 Forex Market Update – April 7, 2025 🇪🇺 EUR/USD 🔹 Reclaims the 1.1000 level amid fresh USD weakness 🔹 Driven by EU-U.S. trade tensions & global recession fears 🔹 📈 Almost Completed a cup & handle formation 🇬🇧 GBP/USD 🔹 Holding gains above 1.2900 after rebounding from 1.2830 🔹 Supported by USD sell-off & BoE-Fed policy divergence 🔹 🛑 Risk-off sentiment & dip-buying helped push the pair higher
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
21
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #54👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro! Let's delve into the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indices. As usual, I will review the New York futures session triggers for you. ⚡️ The market has experienced a drop since yesterday, and I had identified the triggers for this drop in the previous analysis. Let's analyze today to see what we can do in the market. ⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe In the 1-hour timeframe, as you can see, the price made a downward move after the triggers at 82633 and 81473 were activated, even breaking the important support at 79120 and now has rebounded from the area of 74760. ✔️ If we draw a Fibonacci from this downward leg, we can find potential resistance levels. A few moments ago, there was also a fake news report from Trump stating that he would give 90 days to all countries except China to start tariffs, which, although fake, had a significant impact on the market. 📊 The market volume is very low, which makes it susceptible to such short and small news about tariffs to react this way. 📰 If such news continues and the market acts emotionally, the technical analysis I perform for you will not be very reliable, and the price will move more emotionally. 🔼 However, if these emotional moves end and the price stabilizes in these areas, the potential resistances we have are the Fibonacci levels of 0.5, 0.618, and 0.786, where the 0.5 and 0.786 areas overlap with static price resistances, and the 0.618 area, being the golden Fibonacci, could prevent further price drops. 💥 The RSI oscillator, after a sharp fall and being mostly in Oversell yesterday, has finally exited this area and now reached around 50. If this area is broken in the RSI, the likelihood of a deeper correction will increase. 📉 Today, for a short position, we only have the break of the 74760 area, which I also suggest not opening a position with this trigger because the market has recently moved and needs to create a new structure. 📈 For long positions, according to the strategy I have, it does not make sense for me to open a position in this trend that has so much downward momentum. The best analogy is that when a knife is falling, you shouldn't try to catch it mid-air because it might cut your hand; you should wait for it to fall to the ground so you can pick it up safely without risk. Let's look at the indices to take a look at the situation with altcoins. 👑 BTC.D Analysis Bitcoin dominance has made another upward move after breaking 63.07. This caused altcoins to fall more than Bitcoin during this drop, and short positions on altcoins would have given us more profit compared to Bitcoin. 🚀 In the analyses of Bitcoin and altcoins, I've repeatedly told you that for buying altcoins, we should wait until Bitcoin dominance starts to drop. That hasn't happened yet, and it still has a strong upward trend, so today if the market gives a short trigger, altcoins would be more logical. 📅 Total2 Analysis As you can see, this index has fallen much more than Bitcoin, experiencing a very sharp downward leg upon activating the trigger at 965. ⭐ Currently, I've only added the 949 line to the chart, which overlaps with the 0.786 Fibonacci of this downward leg, and I haven't added any other lines and am waiting for the price to create its structure. ✨ The nearest support the price has is 816, which is very important, and there is nothing else notable about Total2 yet, and we need to wait until a structure is created that can be analyzed. 🎲 The only opinion I can give for now is that the 816 area is very important, and reaching this area in Total2 could end its downward trend, which is more like a prediction than an analysis and is a gut feeling and currently has no logical reason. 📅 USDT.D Analysis Let's move on to the analysis of Tether dominance, which is very similar to Total2 but seems like a reverse of it. 👀 Yesterday, the trigger at 5.53 activated simultaneously with 965 in Total2, and the dominance moved upward. There's not much I can analyze about this chart, and the main resistance is in the area of 6.34, which acts like the 816 in Total2. ❌ Disclaimer ❌ Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel. Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Short
by tradecitypro
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Review : POP PatternToday's pattern played out perfectly. I'm really amazed that the SPY rallied up to my resistance level ($520-525) and stalled/bottomed exactly near my $480 support. Absolutely PERFECT reflection of the data I presented this morning and from my research over the weekend. Now, if my analysis is correct, we move into a sideways consolidation pattern for the next 3+ weeks where price will attempt to establish a range (moving slightly downward in trend) before we get to the late-June breakdown (setting up the July 2025 low), then another big breakdown in October 2025. I can't tell you how pleased I am with the comments and messages I get every day. Some of you are KILLING IT and I'm so happy to be able to help. Remember, we are all trying to find the best way to profit from these market trends. So remember to share your success with others and let them know how to find the best tools for trading (on TradingView). Now, let's get busy trying to get ready for the next phase of this market trend (which will come in June). I'll keep you updated. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
11
Bitcoin I Monthly CLS I Key Level Order Block I Model 1I Hey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 🛡️ Models 1 and 2: From my posts, you can learn two core execution models. They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. 📍 Model 2 occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. ⚔️ Listen Carefully: Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves. If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
Long
by David_Perk
10
EURO - Price can bounce from resistance area to $1.0850 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A not long time ago price moved inside a falling channel and showed weak activity with limited growth attempts. Later Euro made a breakout, exited the channel, and started to form a new bullish structure near resistance. After that, price made a sharp upward impulse, touching $1.1010 resistance and forming a pennant pattern. Recently, it broke the lower border of pennant and tested $1.0990 level from below, then bounced down. Now price trades under local resistance area and holds below broken trendline with weak upward attempts. In my opinion, Euro can continue to decline and reach $1.0850 support level in the upcoming sessions. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Short
by WalterMoon
12
GOLD Trending Higher - Can buyers push toward 3,238?OANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries. The recent bullish momentum indicates that buyers are in control, suggesting a potential continuation. The price has recently broken above a key resistance zone and may come back for a retest. If this level holds as support, it would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of a move toward the 3,238 target, which aligns with the channel’s upper boundary. As long as the price remains above this support zone, the bullish outlook stays intact. However, a failure to hold above this level could invalidate the bullish scenario and increase the likelihood of a pullback toward the channel’s lower boundary. Remember, always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TrendDiva
132
#USDJPY:1351+ Bullish Move One Not To Miss| Three TPs| JPY has been bullish since the dollar strengthened, potentially leading to a trade war that would make the Japanese yen more valuable to global investors. However, we may see a strong correction on all XXXJPY pairs, potentially returning stronger with a major bullish correction. We’re not sure if the price will hit all three take profit zones, but we’re interested in how far it goes. Use accurate risk management. This analysis is purely for educational purposes only. Use your own knowledge and analysis before taking any entries. Team Setupsfx_
Long
by Setupsfx_
5
I May Have this Bull Idea Horribly WrongI know it looks good at this exact moment in time but that spike move we just had was so sus. It's really the sort of thing I expect to be dealing with when following a downtrend. Sell > big profit. Sell > big profit Sell > WTF was that Oh correction > Sell > Big profit. I could stack up odds that put the odds of a rally in this area at around 90% (Which is crazy high for the way I estimate odds). But that might have been it. I may have terribly misjudged how deep it would be. If I have this wrong, 4500 in MIN I've expect to hit and if that level breaks we might capitulate to 3000. EXTREMELY STRONG WARNING TO ANYONE USING ANY OF THE BULL IDEAS I'VE EXPESSED. If they're good, they'll be good and easy - and if not, ditch the ideas! They would be predicted to fail spectacularly if wrong. Probably around 5170 area.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by holeyprofit
11
NASDAQ Black Monday or a Massive Rally??Nasdaq (NDX) opened on early Monday futures trade below both its August 05 2024 and April 19 2024 Lows. All technical Supports have been broken and the market made new 12-month Lows. The market sentiment is extremely bearish, technically oversold, even the 1W RSI is below the 30.00 oversold barrier and the prevailing fundamentals regarding the back-and-forth Tariffs between nations don't leave much room for encouragement. The index is more than -25% off the February 17 2025 All Time High (ATH), technically Bear Market territory, and the last time it dropped more this fast is during the lockdowns of the COVID crash (February 20 - March 23 2020). The market dropped by -32%, below also all known technical Supports (including its August low) before finding support and forming a bottom just above the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). The two time events are virtually identical with the only notable difference is that Nasdaq is about to form the 1D Death Cross now while in 2020 it did about 1 month after the low. The only technical development that leaves room for encouragement is that the 1W RSI during COVID got oversold just a day before the eventual market bottom. Does today's 1W RSI drop into oversold territory mean that we are about to form a bottom? Unknown. But what we do know is that on March 03 and 16 2020 on two urgent, out-of-schedule meetings, the Fed stepped in to save the market from the free-fall (and save they did) by cutting the Interest Rates to near zero (first to 1.25% and then to 0.25% subsequently from 1.75% previously). Perhaps that is the only thing that can restore investor confidence (certainly the only action that the Fed can do) and avoid a Black Monday below the 1W MA200, which would be catastrophic. On the other hand, if the U.S. government reach indeed trade deals with the rest of nations and the Fed do what they can from their end, we may even hit new ATH by August! So what do you think it's going to be? Black Monday or Massive Rally? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100
by TradingShot
4
The Stock Market (SPX) Will Also RecoverGreat news my dear friends, reader and followers, truly great news. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is now reversing after challenging a strong support level. This level is the 0.618 Fib. retracement for the bullish wave that started after the October 2023 market low. A strong bounce is visible as soon as this level was hit. The correction is a classic ABC and the C wave is very steep. When a move is really strong, great force, it can't last that long. So the drop happened all at once, fast, and this means a fast end as well as a strong reversal, but the reversal will not be the same. We are more likely than not to experience a long drawn out recovery, higher highs and higher lows long-term. Higher prices next. This is the main support level, 0.618 around 4885. If this level breaks, the next strong support sits at 4540. We are going up. It is not only Bitcoin and the Altcoins, the stock market will also grow. The correction is over. Total drop amounts to a little more than 21%. This is huge and more than enough. The bears are satisfied. The bears are done. A bearish wave is followed by a bullish wave. Short bearish action, long bullish action. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
SP:SPXLong
by MasterAnanda
3
You Won't Believe Who Saved Bitcoin: GMEThis last week was interesting to say the least but the most interesting thing to watch was the incredibly influx of volume into INDEX:BTCUSD As the week progressed into Thursday and Friday and equity markets sold off big the volume of trading in Bitcoin more than doubled... yet the price remained stagnant. A month ago I did a study of correlation and relative movements between stocks and Bitcoin to answer the question: "What would happen to Bitcoin if Stocks Crash?" The TL;DR was that 75% of all weeks exhibited a positive correlation with nearly 50% a "high" correlation. Also, when equities have sold off big over the past decade Bitcoin had sold off at least two times or more. Correlations are not an absolute and can change but this week something unique was clearly going on. If the standard correlation had been allowed to play out on Thursday INDEX:BTCUSD would have fallen more than -8% and Friday more than -11%. It would have triggered mass liquidations. But that did not happen. This was a critically important Support for Bitcoin to hold and someone knew it... enter Ryan Cohen. Michael Saylor with NASDAQ:MSTR is definitely NOT the one deploying cash to prop up Bitcoin. His buys have been entirely NOT-Strategy-ic and has mostly bought highs. He has made a virtue out of being a really bad "trader" uncaring about price and timing. That plan has not worked to push Bitcoin to new a new All Time High nor saved it from the bear trend in 2025. Cohen, however, is a renowned trader/investor that should know market structure and would have the sense to deploy cash at the perfect time. Just this week two things happened: Cohen took out a loan backed by his NYSE:GME shares and GameStop completed a convertible note offering, like Microstrategy has done, to raise 1.4 Billion in cash to buy Bitcoin. That gave him lots of cash at the critical point at the end of the week. So do they get to win? Very possible. It depends on equities. If stocks rise in the coming week then the Bitcoin correlation may resume and INDEX:BTCUSD be lifted. If the U.S. economy enters a recession, the stock market route deepens, or if they used all of their available cash to exhaustion then the plan could fail and Bitcoin will fall in sync.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by norok
9
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025, YES)Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025 Analysis) - by Yuri Duursma Market Overview: Indices in Bear Market Territory After a strong start to the year, U.S. equities have stumbled extremely badly in recent weeks. The S&P 500 is currently down about 22% below its February 2025 all-time high (as the time of writing this, Monday 7 april 3AM EST time), the index is trading slightly above $4,800) , while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen roughly 26.5% from its peak – putting it deep into a bear market at $16,325 points. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a correction, having slid around 19%+ from its ATH. This broad decline has been accelerated by escalating trade tensions – notably sweeping tariffs announced in early April – which sparked a vicious selloff and the worst week for stocks since 2020 In just the two days following the tariff news, the S&P 500 plunged over 10%, wiping out trillions in market value (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Such rapid, across-the-board declines have investors asking: Is the market finally near a bottom, or is there further pain ahead? This analysis will go over key technical indicators and sentiment gauges as of April 7, 2025 to assess whether a market bottom may be forming. Volatility and Options Sentiment (VIX, Put/Call Ratio & Implied Volatility) One classic hallmark of a market bottom is extreme volatility as investors capitulate. The Cboe VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” recently spiked to 60 on April 7, a level not seen since the early stages of the COVID crash in 2020 and the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This move marks a significant shift in sentiment: while in the beginning of last week the VIX was in the low 20s, this surge indicates a full-blown volatility shock, consistent with historical capitulation events. Such a sharp spike strongly suggests the market is experiencing a climax in fear and forced liquidation. Over the past three decades, VIX readings above 50 have typically occurred only at major market bottoms. This extreme VIX level adds to the growing body of evidence that fear has reached saturation, and we are potentially witnessing the formation of a durable bottom. Another critical indicator is the put/call ratio, which reflects how aggressively traders are buying put options versus call options. Initially, the ratio hovered around 0.85, indicating moderate bearishness. However, as of April 6, 2025, the put/call volume ratio surged to 2.06 on SPY options specifically, based on live Barchart data. That means traders are buying more than twice as many puts as calls, a level not seen since the COVID crash. Further reinforcing the signal, SPY’s open interest put/call ratio stands at 1.68 or 1.64 depending on the scource, with put open interest at 10.99 million contracts compared to 6.72 million calls, according to OptionCharts.io. This skew indicates extreme hedging behavior, consistent with historical panic conditions. Even more striking is the implied volatility (IV) for SPY options: • IV (30d): 38.52% • IV Rank: 101.48% • IV Percentile: 100% • Historical Volatility: 27.98% This means the current implied volatility is higher than 100% of the past year’s readings, signaling maximum premium demand for protection. When IV reaches such extremes, it generally implies that traders are paying record-high prices to hedge downside risk—a common occurrence at or just before market bottoms. In summary, options sentiment now reflects not just fear, but full-blown capitulation: • VIX at 60 (multi-year high, extremely rare event) • Put/Call Volume Ratio at 1.68 • SPY IV at 38.52% with 101.5% IV rank • Put open interest heavily outweighs calls Taken together, these suggest an intense bearish consensus that, historically, often occurs just before a reversal. While no single metric predicts a bottom, the convergence of these extreme levels across volatility, positioning, and premium costs dramatically increases the probability that a capitulation low is forming or has just formed. Market Breadth and Technical Trends Broad market internals provide further clues about the selloff’s severity. Market breadth – the ratio of advancing to declining stocks – has deteriorated dramatically, reflecting how widespread the downturn is. In late March and early April, down-days were strikingly one-sided. For example, during the week of March 31 which, only 188 stocks on the NYSE rose while 2,662 fell, with a staggering 1,073 stocks hitting new 52-week lows (Markets Diary - WSJ). That means roughly 93% of all NYSE-listed issues declined over that period – an extremely weak breadth reading. Such lopsided selling (where virtually everything is “thrown out”) is often seen in the late stages of a bear move, as even high-quality names get caught in the capitulation. That said, some technicians look for 90% down days (when 90%+ of volume and issues are to the downside) as a classic bottom signal. So far we’ve seen readings in the 80-90% range (e.g. about 81% of S&P 500 stocks fell on March 31) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), but not quite a definitive 90% washout on a single day. The breadth data thus indicates heavy selling pressure, if not a textbook capitulatory flush just yet. But keep in mind this was on march 31st. The real pain came the week after that, with the s&p500 falling 10% in 2 days, a decline I have rarely seen in my 7 year trading career. Death Cross, might actually signal a bottom instead of a further decline In terms of trend indicators, the major indices have decisively broken below key moving averages. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all trading well under their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which confirms the intermediate-term downtrend. In fact, the decline has been steep enough that the market turned into a so-called “death cross” pattern – where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average. This crossover is a lagging technical signal, but it underscores that momentum has flipped negative. (Notably, many high-flying stocks from last year have already seen “death crosses” of their own.) While ominous, it’s worth remembering that such signals often follow the bulk of a decline – i.e. by the time a death cross occurs, a significant amount of downside has typically already happened. Often, a death cross appears right when stocks are about to bottom. From a contrarian perspective, technical weakness itself can set the stage for a bottom, as oversold conditions and deeply negative momentum sometimes precede eventual stabilization. Still, at this juncture the price trend remains firmly downward, and bulls would want to see indices regain their moving averages or at least flatten out before declaring a true bottom. Fear & Greed Index: Sentiment at Extreme Fear. REDICULOUS levels (4/100) Perhaps the clearest evidence of the market’s psychological state comes from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, a composite of seven market indicators (market momentum, stock strength, breadth, options activity, junk bond demand, volatility, and safe-haven demand). As of early April 2025, this index is deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). In fact, the Fear & Greed reading has collapsed to levels last seen only during major crises – comparable to September 2008 (the Lehman collapse) and March 2020 (the COVID crash) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). Such an abysmal sentiment reading of 4/100 indicates that investor psychology is extraordinarily bearish right now. Anecdotally, panicked retail investors and cautious institutions alike are exceedingly risk-averse – selling stocks, hoarding cash or Treasury bonds, and otherwise assuming the worst. Also, gold hit a new all time high on April 3rd, completely shattering the $3000 mark. Another sign of extreme fear in the markets. From a contrarian standpoint, extreme fear is usually a super bullish signal. The famous adage by Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” resonates strongly at moments like this (Market and Investor Sentiment for April 2025 | Certuity). An Extreme Fear reading implies that a lot of bad news and pessimism is already “priced in” to the market. Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index is this low, stocks have often been near a bottom or at least poised for a relief rally (because most investors who were inclined to sell have already done so). It suggests the market may be approaching maximum pessimism, a precondition for a durable bottom. However, sentiment alone doesn’t call the bottom – it’s necessary but not sufficient. We need to also see actual buying interest returning (or catalysts improving) to confirm a turning point. As one market technician noted, “First you get the fear (capitulation), then you need the positive reaction to confirm a low has been made” (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). Right now we clearly have the fear, but we’re waiting to see if buyers step back in to establish a floor. Looking at the volume of the SPDR S&P500 retail ETF trust, we can see that the volume hit 217.97M. This is the highest volume we have seen since January 2022, which was the low before the index at least saw a significant bounce up. Macroeconomic Backdrop and Market Psychology Beyond technicals, the broader macroeconomic narrative and investor psychology cycle provide context for whether a bottom is forming. The current selloff has been catalyzed by a specific shock – a global trade war scenario – which raises uncertainty about economic growth and possibly higher inflation leading to raised interest rates. Newly announced U.S. tariffs and swift retaliation from China have led investors to price in a higher risk of recession (which J. Powell confirmed), shattering the complacency that prevailed in late 2024 (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Just a few months ago, many market participants were optimistic (perhaps overly so) about U.S. economic “exceptionalism” and continued earnings growth. Now, that optimism has flipped to extreme fear and disbelief. We see signs of capitulation on the institutional side: some hedge funds have reportedly liquidated their stock portfolios entirely to cut risk, citing a “chaotic” outlook and unclear future (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Margin calls are forcing leveraged investors to sell into the falling market, adding to the sense of forced liquidation. This kind of “get me out at any price” trading behavior is typical of late-stage bear market panic. However, a chain reaction of margin calls could lead to even bigger losses. (this might also be the reason traders both institutional and retail are panicking) On the psychological curve, markets appear to be transitioning from the “fear” to “capitulation” phase. Complacency (seen when investors kept buying dips earlier despite warning signs) has definitively evaporated. In its place, despair and panic are increasingly evident – but these are ironically the emotions that precede a market bottom in the classic Wall Street psychology cycle. The saying “darkest before dawn” applies: just when sellers are most exhausted and pessimistic, the groundwork for a bottom is laid. I think the article about margin calls for hedgefunds is a good indication of that. There are also early hints of a possible turn in narrative. For instance, the bond market was rallying tonight (this wasn’t the case onas money seeks safety, and traders are starting to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts to cushion the economy (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Easier monetary policy or a breakthrough in trade negotiations could serve as a catalyst to stabilize stocks. Always keep the possibility of trade negotiations in mind with trump. You never know what he is up to. He could flip 180 degrees in a second, as we have seen his unpredictability in the first quarter of his presidency term. It’s also worth considering what the next phase after a bottom might look like: often, markets experience a “disbelief rally” – an initial rebound that many mistrust, thinking it’s just a short-lived bounce. If a bottom is indeed forming around now, any rebound in coming weeks might be met with skepticism (investors calling it a “dead cat bounce” or expecting another drop). Such skepticism is normal in early recovery stages; only after the market consistently stops making new lows do investors shift from disbelief to cautious optimism. For now, though, the predominant macro mood is still one of shell-shock. Economic indicators (e.g. manufacturing data and consumer confidence) have weakened, and corporate earnings outlooks are guarded, all of which justify a cautious stance. The collective psyche has moved toward “prepare for the worst”, which, paradoxically, is what creates the conditions for things to start getting better. Major indices have undergone a sharp correction, valuations have pulled back, and sentiment is extremely bearish – Fear & Greed is at extreme fear (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ), put/call ratios are elevated (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), and market breadth shows widespread capitulation-like selling (Markets Diary - WSJ). Importantly, these are the kinds of conditions that historically precede market bottoms, as selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and opportunistic buyers step in. There are early anecdotes of capitulation (e.g. hedge funds giving up on stocks) and volatility has surged, indicating peak fear may be near. However, it is equally important to note what’s absent or uncertain: No obvious positive catalyst has emerged yet to definitively turn the tide. The risk factors (e.g. trade war, recession odds) are still in play, meaning investors could remain skittish. In essence, the market might be forming a bottom, but it has not conclusively confirmed one. Bottoms are only ever obvious in hindsight. In real time, one can merely weigh the evidence. As of April 7, 2025, the evidence leans toward an aging selloff with growing contrarian appeal – the crowd is very fearful, and value is returning – but patience and caution are warranted. Traders will be watching for telltale confirmation signals of a bottom: stabilization of prices above recent lows, a drop in volatility, improvement in breadth (more stocks advancing), and the market’s ability to rally on bad news (indicating selling has dried up). For investors, the current environment calls for a balanced, objective approach. The conditions are certainly closer to a bottom than they were a few months ago during the greed/complacency phase, but that doesn’t guarantee the exact bottom is in. It helps to remember that “being early” to a bottom is far better than being late to a panic. I think it is time to DCA aggressively into the markets as of 7 april 2025. With fear running high, long-term investors may find opportunities to start nibbling selectively at high-quality stocks trading at a discount, while keeping some powder dry in case of further downside (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). In summary, the U.S. stock market is showing classic signs of bottoming – extreme fear, heavy hedging, and broad weakness – yet until we see the market’s reaction stabilize (and some resolution to macro risks), it’s prudent to remain vigilant. A bottom could be forming, but confirmation will come only with time and subsequent market action, not simply the calendar. Investors should stay disciplined, focus on quality, and be ready for continued volatility as the market seeks out its true bottom. Sources: Key market statistics and sentiment indicators were referenced from recent analyses and reports, including Reuters, MarketWatch, and investor sentiment surveys (e.g. CNN Fear & Greed Index) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Markets Diary - WSJ). These sources provide context on the April 2025 market conditions, highlighting the elevated volatility (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), bearish options positioning (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), weak market breadth (Markets Diary - WSJ), and extreme fear sentiment (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) that characterize the potential bottoming process. Technical analysis TA: As for the technical analysis, my self written indicator (which is also based on various community open scource trading view scripts) Shows that we are back in the equilibrium zone. Furthermore, the stochastic RSI has hit 0 on the weekly, and the regular RSI is sitting at 26.6, the lowest level since the 2020 covid crash. Furthermore the indicator printed an 8/9 on the weeikly chart, with 9 giving a checkmark. Usually an 8 or a 9 signals a bottom. The daily chart is sitting at a 7/9, which makes me think that we are at a bottom, if not EXTREMELY close to one. Right now, we have also hit a key support area, the 2022 all time high before the markets crashed like i predicted (see previous articles) So TLDR: What is the plan? Of course, timing the market is risky, however I think this is a good time to Dollar Cost Average very aggressively into the markets. Personally I did my first buy ins on Friday April 4th, and will continue to do so this week. EVEN if we end up crashing further, we will always experience a dead cat bounce. Stocks don’t go down in a straight line. As my stocks are in the profit, i will put my stop losses into the profit as well. If the stop losses get hit into the profit, we wait what the market does. Maybe we buy again, a few weeks later maybe we will stay out and hold cash. Only time will tell what the best plan is when that happens. There is no point in deciding that right now. TDLR: Bottom is most likely in or VERY, Very close. BUY, but keep some cash at hand for if the market declines even further (or to keep healthy margin requirements if we end up buying with leverage, which is a bit riskier. Don’t time the market, but act appropriately. Opportunities like this create wealth for the brave in extreme fear situations. TIME TO BUY, DCA HARD INTO THE MARKETS, but keep a little bit of cash for if we do end up going lower!!!!!!!!!!!! Personally, I think blue chip stocks are a steal right now. And the buying doesn't stop there as mid caps also provide amazing opportunities right now.
SP:SPX
by Y_Duursma
10
NIFTY50.....Here is the crash! Hello Traders, yesterday, I wrote the following words: "If not, the index has the possibility to crash to new lows. From my view, I need to see a final "sell-off" in the coming one or two weeks, to clear the market and banish those shaky hands! !" That is what exactly happened this morning! A CRASH! Shaking off the shaky hands! The markets are on the verge of being cleaned up! But!!! NOT yet!!! Chart analysis! First thing to know. This morning's move and massive gap-down was probably a wave 3. These waves are the most powerful waves during an impulse and (in this case), and they destroy the most gains in some minutes, i.e.hours! The second possibility is given that we have seen a "V.-turnaround", and the market has seen the low! To me, the structure is not clear, and I expect one lower low in the coming days ahead below 21743.6! The most important thing for a trader is, to believe what you see! Not to believe what you like to see! Following the idea of a wave 3 (which could be done), we should see a wave 4, morph into an a-b-c or a triangle! Keep in mind, that triangles are the most unlikely patterns to see! Anyway! If so to come, the next hours will show us the pattern, and probably we will get one a-b-c structure! After, i f so to come, new lows are ahead in the following days! But. If this low was the final low for this crash, the index is able to set the stage and skyrocketing! For now, there is no fact, to support this idea, and we handle with patient and care! Don't catch a falling knife!!! I will follow the market closely and update it constantly! For now.....have a great week! Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
8
BTC – Restabilization after this massive drop?Market Context: BTC has broken below a key support level, indicating potential for continued downside. Price is currently retracing after a sharp sell-off, but the overall structure remains bearish unless significant levels are reclaimed. Technical Overview: - The previous support zone has been broken, turning it into potential resistance. - Price is now entering a lower Fair Value Gap (FVG), which could serve as a reaction zone. - A larger FVG higher up, aligning with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement zone, presents a more significant area to watch for a possible reversal. Scenario: Price may retrace into the lower FVG and continue pushing up toward the premium FVG zone. This area coincides with the 0.618–0.65 Fib levels, where a shift in momentum or bearish confirmation could trigger a move lower. Key Points: - A potential rejection could occur from the premium FVG zone. - If an Inverse Fair Value Gap (IFVG) forms in that area, it would support a short setup. - Alternatively, if price prints a lower low before reaching the upper FVG, that would also open up short opportunities. - Patience is key—wait for structure to align or a momentum shift before considering entries. Outlook: The bias remains bearish unless the structure is reclaimed decisively. Current price action suggests the retracement is corrective, and the next impulse may resume the downtrend once premium levels are met.
Short
by Louigi_24
22
Bitcoin will grow inside upward channel to resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Previously, the price moved inside a triangle pattern, where it faced pressure from the resistance line while holding above the lower boundary. After the breakout from this formation, BTC began forming an upward channel, signaling a shift toward a bullish structure. Inside the channel, the price reacted multiple times to the support line, especially within the buyer zone between 79600–81000 points. Every touch of this zone triggered a rebound, indicating that buyers consistently protect it. Most recently, BTC bounced again from the 81000 support level, which aligns with the lower channel boundary. This rebound shows that bullish momentum is still present, and the structure remains intact. Now, the price is stabilizing and preparing for another upward move. I expect BTC to continue rising toward the 88500 resistance level, which is both the TP1 and the upper boundary of the current channel. This level also aligns with the lower edge of the seller zone, making it a natural target for the next wave. With the price holding above key support, the confirmed channel structure, and repeated bullish reactions from the lower zone, I remain bullish and anticipate a continued move upward toward 88500 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Long
by LegionQ8
11
Silver H4 | Heading into a pullback resistanceSilver (XAG/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 30.83 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 32.20 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a pullback resistance. Take profit is at 28.80 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by FXCM
3