NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX. BACK TO 20 000 MARK — KEY RESISTANCE LINEThe NYSE Composite TVC:NYA is a stock market index, that covering all common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange, including American depositary receipts, real estate investment trusts, tracking stocks, and foreign listings.
Over 2,000 stocks are covered in the index, of which over 1,600 are from United States corporations and over 360 are foreign listings.
However foreign companies are very prevalent among the largest companies in the index: of the 100 companies in the index having the largest market capitalization (and thus the largest impact on the index), more than half (55) are non-U.S. issues.
Thanks to many non-U.S. components, NYSE Composite index shows nearly 5 per cent return in 2025 so far, outperforms major U.S. stock indices like Dow Jones Industrial (+0.24%), S&P500 (+1.91%), as well as Nasdaq-100 (+3.21%).
Trade negotiations and tariff expectations have been central drivers of the NYSE Composite Index's recent recovery, shaping both market sentiment and underlying corporate fundamentals.
Trade Negotiations. Market Sensitivity and Relief Rallies
Financial markets, including the NYSE Composite, have reacted sharply to developments in trade negotiations. Historically, when trade talks break down or new tariffs are announced, U.S. stocks tend to sell off due to concerns over higher costs, supply chain disruptions, and reduced global demand. Conversely, when negotiations resume or tariffs are delayed, markets often rebound. For example, during the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war, U.S. stocks experienced heightened volatility, but rallied strongly after the announcement of the Phase I trade deal, as uncertainty eased and the threat of further escalation diminished. This pattern has repeated in 2025: the NYSE Composite has staged recoveries following signs of progress in trade talks or delays in tariff implementation, as investors anticipate less disruption to global commerce and corporate earnings.
Tariff Expectations. Impact on Earnings, Valuations, and Sentiment
Tariffs directly affect corporate earnings by raising input costs for companies that rely on imported goods. According to Goldman Sachs Research, every five-percentage-point increase in the U.S. tariff rate is estimated to reduce S&P 500 earnings per share by roughly 1-2%. If companies absorb these costs, profit margins are squeezed; if they pass them on to consumers, sales may decline. The NYSE Composite, which tracks a broad swath of U.S. and international companies, is similarly exposed.
Expectations around tariffs also influence equity valuations.
Elevated policy uncertainty—driven by unpredictable tariff announcements—raises the risk premium investors demand, often compressing price-to-earnings multiples and weighing on stock prices. When clarity emerges, such as the announcement of a tariff pause or the prospect of a negotiated settlement, uncertainty recedes, and valuations can recover, fueling index gains.
The Role of Policy Announcements and Market Psychology.
Trade policy announcements have acted as economic shocks, affecting global trade relationships and growth forecasts. For instance, after the U.S. announced new tariffs in early 2025, recession odds rose and GDP growth forecasts were slashed, prompting a broad market sell-off. However, the subsequent announcement of a 90-day tariff pause and renewed negotiations led to a stabilization and partial recovery in equities, as investors reassessed the likelihood of a severe downturn.
Market psychology amplifies these moves.
As trade rhetoric intensifies, investor sentiment can become excessively pessimistic, sometimes overshooting the actual economic impact of tariffs. This creates conditions for relief rallies when negotiations show progress or when the tariff outlook becomes less severe than feared.
Technical challenge
NYSE Composite index has experiencied record values on Friday, November 29, 2024, following so-called Trump-a-Rally.
The best Closing high was 20,272.04 ponts at those day and the best Intraday high was 20,332.50 points, also at the same day.
However unability to finish the year 2024 firmly above 20 000 round number, sharply pushed stock market bulls into fart and double-digit decline earlier in 2025.
The main chart indicates on major resistance again, near 20 000 point while technical indicator RSI (14) still goes sluggish.
Conclusion
The NYSE Composite Index's recovery has been closely tied to the ebb and flow of trade negotiations and tariff expectations. Positive developments in negotiations and reduced tariff threats have alleviated uncertainty, supported earnings expectations, and improved investor sentiment, all of which have contributed to the index's rebound.
--
Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
