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GOLD Impact of June 6 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Data on Fed Rate Decisions Key Data Points Non-Farm Employment Change: 139K (vs. 126K forecast, revised April: 147K from 177K). Unemployment Rate: Steady at 4.2% (matches forecasts). Average Hourly Earnings: 3.9% YoY (vs. 3.7% expected). Labor Force Participation Rate: Declined to 62.4% (from 62.6%). Fed Policy Implications Labor Market Cooling but Resilient: Job growth slowed (139K vs. 147K prior), with cumulative downward revisions of 95K for March and April. This signals moderation but avoids a sharp deterioration. Stable unemployment rate (4.2%) and wage growth (3.9% YoY) suggest the labor market remains tight enough to sustain consumer spending but is losing momentum. Inflation Concerns Persist: Sticky Wage Growth: Elevated wage inflation (3.9% YoY) complicates the Fed’s inflation fight, particularly in services sectors. Productivity-Sensitive Costs: Rising labor costs without productivity gains could pressure corporate margins and consumer prices. Fed’s Balancing Act: Near-Term Hold Likely: The Fed is expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50% in July, prioritizing inflation control over labor market softness. Rate Cut Odds Shift: Markets now price a ~55% chance of a September cut (up from ~40% pre-NFP), contingent on further cooling in inflation (June 11 CPI data critical). Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Minimal immediate reaction, but sustained labor market cooling could weaken the dollar if rate cuts gain traction. Equities: Mixed signals (slower jobs vs. stable wages) may limit gains, though tech and growth stocks could rally on delayed Fed tightening. Bonds: 10-year yields (4.40%) may edge lower if growth fears outweigh inflation risks. Conclusion The Fed will likely delay rate cuts until September unless inflation softens decisively. While job growth is slowing, persistent wage pressures and a stable unemployment rate justify a cautious stance. Traders should monitor June CPI (June 11) and Q2 GDP data for clearer signals. Summary: No July cut expected; September cut remains contingent on inflation easing. DXY range-bound near 98.50–99.50 until CPI release. stay cautious #gold
CITYINDEX:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
Elliott Wave Analysis – Trade Plan for June 6, 2025 🔍 Current Wave Structure Yesterday's sharp and impulsive drop suggests a completed 5-wave structure for wave c (red) within a larger flat correction (abc red). However, this morning's bullish move lacks momentum — candles are overlapping and price has failed to break above the 3383 level. This casts doubt on the current wave being the beginning of a new impulsive trend. 🌀 Scenario 1 – Beginning of a New Impulsive Wave The current bullish leg may be wave 1, forming as a leading diagonal due to overlapping candles. Projected target for wave 1: 3380. A pullback from this level could form wave 2, offering a potential long entry around 3347–3344. ⚠️ Scenario 2 – Continuation of a Larger Wave 2 Correction If price drops back toward 3324, this would invalidate the current impulsive wave count as wave 4 would overlap wave 1 (black) → A larger corrective structure is still unfolding. The current bounce may then be interpreted as wave a of a larger abc corrective move, suggesting a further decline to come. 🎯 Trading Strategy (Confluence of Both Scenarios) Sell Zone: 3380–3383 → short-term selling opportunity based on potential wave 1 peak or wave b top. Buy Zone: 3347–3344 → potential entry if wave 2 completes here (Scenario 1) or wave b ends here (Scenario 2). 📈 Momentum Outlook Daily (D1): Momentum is fading but a confirmed bearish close today is needed. If confirmed, at least 4 more bearish daily candles may follow. H4: Momentum is rising, suggesting more upside or sideways consolidation in the short term. H1: Momentum is about to turn bearish. Ideally, we wait for it to dip into oversold territory and reverse upward — that would be our signal to go long. 🛒 Trade Setup BUY ZONE: 3347 – 3344 🎯 SL: 3337 🎯 TP1: 3365 🎯 TP2: 3380 🎯 TP3: 3404 (if bullish scenario plays out) SELL ZONE: 3383 – 3386 🎯 SL: 3393 🎯 TP1: 3365 🎯 TP2: 3347
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
6/6/25 - $lulu - Buy $260s, but not "need" to own6/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:LULU Buy $260s, but not "need" to own - stock is objectively a buy here in the $260s, let's get that out of the way - but when it comes to "what can happen next" or "what's the floor/drawdown", i think a few considerations - flat EPS guide in '25 is not bc of structural issues w brand, so high teens PE esp on '26 #s is reasonable and FCF supports in mid to high 4s on '26 ests. - the main fly in the ointment is obviously the US consumer and recession issues (second would be tariffs and ability to take price - which they talked on conf call - into this "weaker" consumer) - ultimately i'd expect the stock to recover a bit here into the high $200s... perhaps $280 such macro doesn't fall to pieces immediately, but will be hard to see stock recover $300 soon. - i also tend to think the lows could be tested if we get a risk off moment sooner vs. later - and this isn't a "need to own" in my book at the moment, esp while i'm packing high conviction on obtc, nxt, gamb, tsm and starting to wrangle tsla as of y'day. - so let's see. - i won't get *too* greedy. i'm tempted here. tldr - but my target is probably in the sub $250 level to start biting and building position be well my friends, have a good weekend! V
NASDAQ:LULULong
by VROCKSTAR
1
4 HOUR OBSERVATIONS FOR TODAYS XAUUSD MARKET Today is an interesting day for the XAUUSD pair. observation and patience will be key for any intentions before placing and executing a buy or sell position. In the higher timeframe 4hour we have multiple situations to take note of, not overcomplicating any market scenarios and looking at the point blank facts that are presented to us in the present moment. take note of. 1)A Double top formation (some may say its a triple top with the centre closures) 2)Most recent candle closures failed to break previous highs. 3)The 4hour EMA is close to our current price which will have either a reaction or break so observe with caution. 4)A strong trend line that has been well respected previously since 25th May. 5)A strong support zone that has had multiple touches. 6)Observe the lower time frame DESCENDING triangle chart pattern which could indicate a potential correction to the downside with a short term bearish movement. 7)1.30 Red folder news release. I will be looking to enter on either a break out of the 1 hour descending to the upside for a scalp into the 4Hour resistance above price, or wait for clear break to the sell side aiming towards lower coordinates that align with 1 hour candle closures at resistances. this is my first published analysis on trading view. good luck to any traders out there creating their own life to attain freedom. earn, learn and grow together - its time to exit the rat race !!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by onamission_xau
Bitcoin to 100k isn’t bearish. It is an opportunity. Bitcoin just retraced ~10% after its 21W EMA golden cross — and history tells us that’s not weakness… it’s setup. Chart Context: We’ve seen this pattern before: • 2016: Golden cross → 11% dip → 160% rally • 2020: Golden cross → 13% dip → 300% rally • 2025: Golden cross → 10% dip → ? Right now, BTC is doing what it always does post-cross: Retest prior structure. Fill liquidity. Create a higher low. ⸻ 🧠 The Key Signal: 21W EMA Cross This chart shows a textbook liquidity void retest, with: ✅ Demand zone at $93K–$98K. This might stay untouched. ✅ Higher Low structure intact ✅ Volumes compressing — potential breakout coil ✅ Smart money re-accumulating ⸻ 📍 $98K–$100K Zone = Opportunity This isn’t a top. It’s a retest. And likely the last high-conviction entry before BTC pushes to $124K and beyond. Golden Cross ≠ Immediate moon Golden Cross = Structure → Dip → Expansion ⸻ 📊 What Comes Next? If BTC follows the 2016/2020 blueprint, expect: → Sideways chop → Dominance peak → ETH/BTC rotation → Altcoin rally → Sentiment shift ⸻ Conclusion: 🧠 The smartest plays aren’t made at ATHs — they’re made in the retraces that shake others out. This $100K dip is exactly what the market needs for the next leg. Stay focused. Watch structure. Follow conviction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BahtMover