SMCI Approaching Key Reversal Zone – Breakout or More Downside?Technical Analysis (TA):
1. Trend & Structure:
* SMCI has been in a strong downtrend, marked by multiple Break of Structure (BOS) signals.
* A Change of Character (ChoCH) has occurred, hinting at a potential reversal if confirmed.
* Resistance: ~43 (Call Resistance), 57-60 (Major Supply Zone).
* Support: ~35-38 (Demand Zone & Highest Negative NETGEX).
2. Reversal Zone:
* The 35-38 range is a key demand area where buyers have previously stepped in.
* If SMCI holds above 38, it has potential to test 43 before further upside.
* A failure to hold 38 could see retesting 35 or lower.
3. Indicators:
* MACD: Neutral, with potential for a bullish cross.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, signaling possible upward momentum.
* Volume: Increased buying near the 38 level suggests accumulation.
Options GEX & Trade Setup:
1. Call Walls (Resistance):
* 43 – First resistance where price may stall.
* 57-60 – If price clears 43, gamma resistance intensifies.
2. Put Walls (Support):
* 38 – Highest negative NETGEX support, critical for reversal.
* 35 – 2nd major Put Wall; a break here could accelerate downside.
3. Option Trade Suggestions:
* Bullish Play: If price holds above 38 and starts breaking 40, consider April 40C or 45C targeting 43-45.
* Bearish Play: If SMCI breaks below 38 with weakness, consider March-April 35P targeting 35 or lower.
Thoughts & Conclusion:
SMCI is at a critical decision point around 38. If it reclaims 40, it could push toward 43-45, but failure to hold 38 could send it lower to 35. Traders should wait for confirmation of either a breakout or breakdown before committing to a trade.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
