Gold: Economic Risks May Drive Prices UpGold Surges Amid Global Uncertainty, Testing Key Resistance
Gold has continued its impressive rebound, climbing steadily from its recent trough at $2,957 to reclaim territory above the psychological $3,000 mark. This upward momentum is being driven by a confluence of macroeconomic factors, including a softening US dollar and a pause in the previously relentless climb of US Treasury yields. With markets recalibrating their expectations around interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, investor appetite for safe-haven assets like gold has gained renewed strength.
At the heart of the current rally lies mounting geopolitical tension, particularly the intensifying trade standoff between the United States and China. Washington's proposal to impose 50% tariffs on a broad array of Chinese goods has rattled global markets. In response, Beijing is signaling potential retaliatory measures, further stoking fears of a prolonged economic conflict between the world's two largest economies. These developments are injecting volatility into risk assets and increasing demand for traditional hedges such as gold.
From a technical standpoint, the precious metal is currently grappling with a significant resistance level near $3,013. If the price manages to consolidate above this threshold following the current retracement, it could pave the way for a continued upward drive toward the next resistance zones at $3,033 and $3,057. These levels represent key pivot points that could dictate the short- to medium-term trajectory of gold.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $2,996, with stronger backing at $2,981. These levels may provide a cushion for any near-term pullbacks, especially as traders look for opportunities to re-enter the market during dips.
The broader narrative remains highly fluid, shaped by the ever-changing dynamics of global trade policy and monetary strategy. As the tug-of-war between Washington and Beijing intensifies, markets are left navigating a highly politicized and uncertain environment. With neither side showing signs of capitulation—China maintaining its firm stance, and the US administration likely to resist backing down—the potential for further escalation remains high.
In this context, gold’s appeal as a strategic asset grows stronger. The current setup suggests that the metal may gain additional bullish traction if it finds support around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level or holds above $3,013. Investors are keenly watching these technical and fundamental cues, weighing the growing economic risks that could propel gold into a sustained rally.
Community ideas
Gold Rebounds Off Key Support — Next Leg to $4,200 = 124,000 PIP
View our previous 120,000 PIPs (target hit) Gold trades at the bottom of this page.
Following our previously fulfilled short trade from the top of the ascending channel (TP2 hit at $2,960), gold has now landed precisely at confluence support — aligning with the psychological $3,000 level, ascending channel support, the quarterly dynamic support, and the prior swing high zone. We are now flipping bias long, with a macro continuation in mind, while still respecting the shorter-term range structure.
Structure & Setup:
Another clean reaction from the ascending channel’s lower boundary reaffirms the structure’s technical validity. Price has now tapped the $3,000 round number support, intersecting with the channel base and our prior short target zone — offering strong risk-defined long opportunities.
Macro Context Holds:
Our long-term thesis targeting $4,270 remains intact, backed by structural breakout on the quarterly chart and fundamental gold demand. This move is potentially the start of the next impulsive leg in a broader macro expansion, though we expect the asset to oscillate within the channel boundaries until at least July.
Entry Logic:
This long setup is based on:
– Channel base bounce
– $3,000 psychological round number
- $2,960 quarterly dynamic support
– Reversal at former Take Profit 2 (TP2) short target
– Tight invalidation just below $2,960
– Favourable 1:11+ R:R targeting macro highs
Invalidation:
A clean break and close below $2,960 would invalidate the long thesis and suggest breakdown risk. Until then, structure holds.
Pip Potential:
From $2,960 to $4,200 = 124,000 pips upside potential — aligning with macro projections and Fib extensions from previous cycles (-1.414 & -1.618 zones).
Outlook:
While $4,200 remains our long-term target, we anticipate ranging between $2,960–$3,200 for the next several months. This accumulation phase may precede a breakout leg that targets historical Fibonacci confluence zones.
Summary:
Short trade complete — bias flipped long. We’ve now transitioned from a completed 1:4 R:R short into a 1:11+ macro long off textbook technical levels. Price action is behaving cleanly within the multi-month channel, and this latest support reaction adds further credibility to the bullish continuation thesis.
Let price consolidate — buy positions accordingly. The macro expansion to $4,200 is likely underway.
Previous Short:
75,000 PIP idea (Target hit):
45,000 PIP idea (Target hit):
Bearish ETH/USD Trade SignalEntry
Sell ETH/USD at $1,570
Stop Loss
$1,805 (above key resistance to manage risk)
Take Profit
$1,090 (targeting extended downside move)
Analysis
Ethereum has faced strong selling pressure over the past few weeks, and the downtrend is likely to continue for the next four weeks. Several factors contribute to this bearish outlook:
ZKasino Scammer Liquidation: The ZKasino exploit wallet lost $27 million after a leveraged ETH position was liquidated, highlighting panic selling in the market.
Market-Wide Sell-Off: ETH recently dropped to a two-year low of $1,480 amid record-breaking equity market losses.
Macroeconomic Pressure: Trump’s tariff policies triggered a sharp sell-off in global markets, leading to a broader crypto market correction.
Whale Liquidation Risks: A whale holding a $340 million ETH short position is at risk of liquidation if ETH drops below $1,119, suggesting further downside pressure.
Risk Management
The risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, targeting nearly 3:1 reward vs. risk.
Breakdown below $1,480 could accelerate ETH's decline toward $1,090, making this setup a high-probability trade.
Gold to Silver ratio: Gold price vs Silver priceGold to Silver ratio during Covid crash (1:120+) vs Tariff crash (1:100+). Over extended cup & handle Gold breakout could come down to $2700-$2800. Could undervalue silver goes up massively & outperform gold from here? It could in my opinion. It happens once in every 25 yrs since 1970.
Crude Oil: Volatility and Key Levels in FocusThe Crude Oil (CL1!) chart shows a recent phase of high volatility, with a sharp decline followed by a recovery attempt. After reaching the recent high around 80.77, the price underwent a significant correction, returning to the key support zone between 60.97 and 62.43. This price range represents an important accumulation level, previously tested multiple times in recent months and defended by buyers.
From a technical perspective, the area between 65.27 and 69.00 represents a dynamic resistance zone, whose breakout could pave the way for a recovery towards the critical 73.00 area. However, the recent bearish impulse has pressured lower levels, and a weekly close below 60.97 could indicate a structural trend change, with potential bearish targets around 57.00.
The RSI is currently in an oversold zone, suggesting a potential consolidation phase or a technical rebound attempt. However, selling pressure remains high, and sentiment is negative, partly driven by global economic uncertainties and concerns about oil demand.
From an operational perspective, a move back above 65.27 could indicate a recovery phase, with targets at 69.00 and subsequently 73.00. Conversely, a break below 60.97 would open negative scenarios with a possible extension towards the lower support at 57.00. Investors remain focused on macroeconomic data and OPEC+ decisions, as potential production cuts could trigger a new rally, while an unfavorable macro environment could increase selling pressure.
XAUUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of XAU-USD (Gold) with you.
Looking at the chart for gold, I expect a slight price increase towards 3,054.190. After reaching this level, I anticipate a price decline towards 2,956.310.
📉 Expectation:
Bullish Scenario: A slight increase to 3,054.190
Bearish Scenario: A decline to 2,956.310 after reaching the target.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 2,956.310
Resistance: 3,054.190
💬 What do you think about Gold this week? Let me know in the comments!
Trade safe
QQQ - The Time Is NowApril is wild. So take a deep breath and ... relax.
Because for traders with a longer-term investment horizon, now may be THE time to buy.
A look at the QQQ in the big picture shows that extremely strong bullish divergences have built up in the cumulative volume delta.
Yes, the crash was fast and violent. But, as we know: Fast is fake.
It can therefore be assumed that the QQQ will recover relatively soon.
Times may remain exciting for day traders, but investors on the hunt for bargains will be happy about perfect entry prices.
USDCAD SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Daily Rejection At AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 1.42500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 5.89
Entry 105%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.
This is Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis Gotcha Bar with No DemandIn this short video, Author and Trader, Gavin Holmes explains a Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis Gotcha Bar followed by No Demand on the four hour chart of the E-Mini S&P Futures contract.
This set up appeared last week and again today and is a clear indication of market weakness.
As I type this the headline on BBC News is "Global Markets Plummet as US Tariffs Take Effect.
Panic selling is often an opportunity for the chart readers who can identify a Shakeout, not here yet but watch, I will keep You all posted. Best wishes, Gavin Holmes
Apollo Tyres at Key Reversal Zone – Big Move Loading!🚨 APOLLO TYRES – Technical Analysis & Trade Plan
🔍 Swing / Positional Opportunity
🔎 Step-by-Step Analysis
1. Monthly Timeframe View
🔸 Previous Monthly High: ₹584.90
🔸 Apollo Tyres Corrected 36.7% from ATH
🔸 Current Market Structure: Price has now entered a strong Monthly POI (Point of Interest) zone.
🔸 Today’s Low: ₹375 – This aligns exactly with our key POI, suggesting possible institutional accumulation.
🔸 Previous Key Swing High: ₹423.50 – This has been broken, indicating a shift in structure from bearish to bullish.
💡 This tells us that supply has weakened and buyers have started dominating. The fact that price has moved out of the demand zone and above the previous structure confirms the strength of this level.
2. Lower Timeframe Confirmation
✅ Today’s gap-down has been fully filled, which often confirms price strength and supports a reversal move.
✅ Price reacting sharply at POI shows that smart money is active at this level.
📈 Entry, Stoploss & Targets
📍 Entry Zone: ₹389 – ₹374
📉 Stop-Loss: ₹355 (just below structure and POI)
📊 Target 1: ₹440
🎯 Target 2: ₹520
📌 Risk-Reward: Well defined with a small risk, giving a potential for large upside.
"Risk is limited, but reward potential is big. A textbook Smart Money entry."
⚠️ Market Conditions
📉 Global markets are weak, so it's important to follow risk management strictly.
👉 Always enter with a stop-loss in place. No blind entries.
✅ Summary & Key Takeaway
Apollo Tyres is showing signs of a strong reversal from a high-timeframe demand zone. With confirmations on both higher and lower timeframes, this could be the right time to start accumulating with a long-term view.
A well-timed, low-risk entry could result in substantial gains.
📢 Don’t Miss Out!
✅ Follow for more smart money-based setups.
👍 Drop a like if this helped and comment with your thoughts!
💬 Let’s chat in the comments section. See you there! 🚀📊
AUD/NZD NEXT MOVESell after bearish candle stick pattern, buy after bullish candle stick pattern....
Best bullish pattern , engulfing candle or green hammer
Best bearish pattern , engulfing candle or red shooting star
NOTE: IF YOU CAN'T SEE ANY OF TOP PATTERN IN THE ZONE DO NOT ENTER
Stop lost before pattern
R/R %1/%3
Trade in 5 Min Timeframe, use signals for scalping
TON/USDT – LONG Setup
✅ Entry Zone: $3.00 – $3.30
📍 Current Price: ~$3.30
🎯 Targets:
• T1: $4.515
• T2: $6.038
• T3: $7.857
🔻 Stop Loss: $2.60
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
Price action shows reversal signs after a sharp drop into a weekly support block.
Structure suggests a potential double bottom with bullish engulfing confirmation forming.
Clean breakout above $3.60 would validate continuation toward $4.5 and above.
🚀 Strategic Note:
A break and hold above the $3.80 resistance would likely accelerate momentum. Ideal for swing traders targeting medium-term gains.
BTC Bottomed out? Don't say i did not warned you. Bitcoin Bottom Analysis and Future Outlook
In my opinion, BTC has already formed its bottom. I believe this because the lows are fully protected, meaning no candle has closed below the previous low on the daily timeframe. This is a strong indication that we have established a bottom. Additionally, the 74-75K area was a very strong support zone from which we saw a significant reversal.
However, if someone wants extra confirmation, they can wait another one to two weeks for further price action. The RSI divergence is also showing that this is a strong area and could be a potential reversal point.
It’s important to remember that nothing in the market is 100% certain. No one can buy exactly at the bottom or sell exactly at the top. Traders need to be cautious and analyze the market based on their portfolio strategy and risk-to-reward ratio.
As for Bitcoin’s upcoming movement, I expect the market to remain sideways until the last week of April. After that, I anticipate an uptrend beginning in May. Let’s see how things unfold in the coming days.
Hope my previous precautions helped you to save your capital and you are now buying the discounted prices.
If you want to know about top utility projects comment down there I'll update you.
EUR/PLN SHORT Investment Opportunity 4HHello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to show you a SHORT investment opportunity on EUR/PLN. We are currently on a 4-hour (4H) chart, and some technical indicators suggest increasing bearish pressure. The overbought signals and the loss of momentum suggest that we could be facing a possible bearish reversal, making this configuration particularly interesting.
Here is the Investment Setup:
The entry price for the trade is set at 4.2854.
There is a SELL signal with a target price set at 4.2066, corresponding to a TP of 1.85%.
The stop loss is set at 4.2593, corresponding to a SL of 0.61%.
This short position offers a favorable risk/reward ratio, taking advantage of the current bearish pressure and the possible confirmation of a bearish trend on EUR/PLN.
As always, I encourage you to monitor this setup carefully and apply strategic and conscious risk management to your trading plan. Happy trading! 📉
Trading UVIX for Effective Hedge📊 Trade Idea: UVIX Multi-Layered Entry Strategy (Scalping Volatility Spikes)
The current market environment presents a unique opportunity to trade the Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX), which has surged nearly 50% on Thursday and 124% over the last week. With ongoing fears surrounding President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, volatility is expected to remain elevated.
🔍 What Is UVIX?
UVIX is a leveraged ETF designed to provide twice (2x) the daily return of the Long VIX Futures Index. Unlike the VIX itself, which measures expected market volatility, UVIX holds futures contracts on the VIX, aiming to profit from both upward spikes in volatility and the structure of the futures market.
Pros of UVIX:
High Return Potential: Can deliver significant gains when market volatility spikes.
Effective Hedge: A powerful tool to offset losses during broad market declines.
Liquidity: Offers easy access to volatility exposure without directly trading VIX futures.
Cons of UVIX:
High Volatility: Amplified moves can result in large gains or substantial losses.
Decay & Compounding Issues: Daily rebalancing and futures roll costs can erode value over time.
Not Suitable for Long-Term Holding: Designed for short-term plays, not buy-and-hold investing.
Here’s my detailed risk-managed trading plan to profit from continued volatility.
🚀 Entry Strategy: Layered Buy Entries with Trailing Stops
🎯 Initial Entry:
Entry Price: 80.00 (Just above the breached Supply Zone 0: 56.80 - 66.38)
Stop Loss: Below the lower trend line from the recent parabolic move (For example, around 70.00).
📈 Position Scaling: Adding to Winning Positions
Use Buy Stop Orders:
As the price breaks above significant supply zones, place Buy Stop Orders to add positions.
Scale in positions at:
Level 1: Above 89.20 (Top of Supply Zone 1)
Level 2: Above 113.25 (Top of Supply Zone 2)
Level 3: Above 147.24 (Bottom of Supply Zone 3)
Level 4: Above 182.36 (Bottom of Supply Zone 4)
Manual Entries:
Alternatively, you can manually add positions on strong breakouts during or outside Regular Trading Hours (RTH) to catch volatility spikes.
!!!Use Limit Orders Outside RTH!!
Place limit orders during off-hours to capture sharp volatility moves when liquidity is lower.
Market volatility often increases during pre-market or post-market sessions. Capitalize on these moves with well-placed limit orders.
🛡️ Risk Management: Trailing Stops & Break-Even Protection
Initial Stop Loss:
Set below the lower trend line (e.g., 70.00). This provides a wide margin for market fluctuations while still protecting your position.
Trailing Stop Loss:
As the price progresses upward, move your stop loss to higher levels to secure profits.
Use a dynamic trailing stop that follows major support levels or recent lows.
Break-Even :
Once UVIX has moved 10-20% above your entry point (80.00), move your stop loss to break even (80.00) for a risk free trade.
📌 Profit Targets
Target 1: 130.79 (Historical 350% level from July 2024 move)
Target 2: 165.46 (Top of Supply Zone 3)
Target 3: 210.30 (August 2024 High)
Adding positions as the price moves in your favor allows for maximum profit potential while limiting risk on initial entries.
Moving the stop loss to break-even creates a risk-free trade, allowing you to ride the momentum without worry.
Continually adjusting stops protects profits as they accumulate, ensuring that gains are secured even if the market turns sharply.
📣 Final Thoughts
The Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) is a powerful instrument for profiting from short-term volatility spikes. Given the current geopolitical and economic uncertainty, this setup offers a strong risk-reward opportunity.
💡Advice: Avoid Greed & Gambling in Volatility Trading
Trading the Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX) offers tremendous profit potential during periods of heightened market volatility. However, the same leverage that can generate huge gains can just as easily cause significant losses. Avoiding greed and gambling behavior is crucial for your long-term success.
Using Put Options to Protect Your Stock PortfolioCME: Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! )
Last week’s bloodshed of global financial market made history. Nearly all major asset classes fell into a market turmoil driven by tariffs and retaliations.
Let’s focus on the US stock market:
• Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 7.76% in the week of March 31st to April 4th, making it the 4th worst weekly performance on record
• S&P 500 slipped 8.77%, the 4th worst week in history
• Nasdaq Composite fell 9.18%, the 2nd worst week
• Russell gave up 9.34%, the 3rd worst week
All four stock index futures were in negative territory year-to-date. On Sunday evening, E-Mini S&P 500 opened 178 points lower to 4,932, losing 17.1% YTD.
All parties ultimately come to an end. After two years of double-digit gains, the unstoppable US stock market finally cracked. As more tariffs and retaliations are expected to escalate, I am afraid that we are only seeing the beginning, rather than the end.
For stock investors, this is a good reminder of market risk, something we always talk about but seldomly pay attention to. The “return of investment” should be focusing on the repayment of your money, a safety issue. Only after that should we talk about the gain from the investment. It is a necessity to protect your portfolio to achieve long-term growth.
Trading with Options on E-Mini S&P 500 Futures
For investors with a diversified portfolio, Put Options on the E-Mini S&P 500 futures are effective and cost-efficient tools. Investors who long the stocks will lose money, should stock prices fall. Put options would gain in value, providing a hedge to the portfolio.
The following illustration shows a hypothetical example, given:
• An investor has a $250,000 portfolio holding a diversified pool of U.S. stocks
• CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures ( NYSE:ES ) have a contract size of $50 times the index value
• The June contract (ESM5) was quoting at 4,935 Sunday evening Friday, making the notional value of 1 contract $246,750, approximately equal to our portfolio value
• Assuming the portfolio moves closely in line with the S&P 500
• The investor wants to limit the loss of his portfolio to 12%. If the S&P 500 index is currently around 4950, a put option with a strike price of 4350 would roughly correspond to a 12% decline
Hedging trade illustration:
• The investor buys 1 put option on the June futures with the strike price of 4,600
• CME quote on that Put option is 223. As the contract is $50 times the index, the premium upfront for one put option contract is $11,150 (223*$50), ignoring any commissions
• The put premium is calculated as 4.46% of the $250K portfolio
If S&P drops to 4,200 (-15.15%) by the end of April:
• Without the put, the portfolio lost $37,879, assuming the same loss with the S&P
• The 4600-strike put is now 400 points in-the-money
• The investor sells the put and receives $20,000 (= 400 x 50)
• The loss of portfolio will be 37879+11150-20000 = $29,029
• With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29029 / 250000), which is 3.5% lower than the S&P loss and with the preset loss limit
If S&P drops to 4,000 (-19.2%) by the end of May:
• Without the put, the portfolio lost $47,980, assuming the same loss with the S&P
• The 4850-strike put is now 600 points in-the-money
• The investor sells the put and receives $30,000 (= 600 x 50)
• The loss of portfolio will be 47980+11150-30000 = $29,130
• With an E-mini S&P put protection to mitigate loss from the stock portfolio, the investor lost 11.6% (= 29,130 / 250000)
As we can see here, when the S&P falls sharply, the investor will be able to cap his loss to 11.6%. In a “protective put” strategy, we would consider the option premium an insurance contract for owning stocks. If the index rises, the portfolio return would be lowered a little because of the premium upfront, that is, the cost of insurance. However, the protection is a lifesaver if the index falls.
Before jumping into action, the investor needs to run a correlation analysis using the daily value of the portfolio against the S&P 500 closing prices. Here is how:
• Some trading software has correlation feature built in already
• If not, pull 1-year daily portfolio balance and 1-year S&P closing prices, export them to Excel. Run correlation test with these two data series using Excel data analysis tool.
• Alternatively, we could drop the data into ChatGPT and ask AI to do the work for us.
If the correlation is greater than 50%, it means that S&P 500 is a good fit to hedge the portfolio. If it is not, we could try the correlation analysis using the other stock index closing prices, such as the Dow, the Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000. Then replace E-Mini S&P 500 futures with the stock index futures contract best fit the portfolio.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com