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XAUUSD Technical Analysis Update
🔹 Timeframes Observed: H1, M30, and M15
Gold (XAUUSD) has officially broken the trendline on all three lower timeframes — 1 Hour, 30 Minutes, and 15 Minutes — indicating a clear shift in market structure towards the downside.
🔹 Key Support Level:
The next critical confirmation of bearish continuation will occur if price breaks below the $3116 support zone. A clean break and retest of this level can serve as strong validation for further downside movement.
🔹 Target Zones:
If the bearish momentum sustains, price may head towards the following levels:
🎯 Target 1: $3195
🎯 Target 2: $3172
🎯 Target 3: $3132
🔹 Stop Loss:
To manage risk effectively, a recommended stop loss is placed at $3250. This helps protect against unexpected price spikes or false breakouts.
🔹 EMA Confluence:
The 21 EMA on the M30 timeframe has been broken, adding another layer of confirmation to the bearish bias. This EMA break often signals a shift in short- to mid-term trend direction.
⚠️ Important Note on Fundamentals:
While technicals currently show a bearish setup, it's essential to monitor fundamental drivers closely — including economic news releases, central bank statements, tariffs, and geopolitical events — as any significant development can invalidate technical patterns and shift market sentiment instantly.
Gold on aggressive uptrend extension as expectedTechnical analysis: Gold seems to be recovering last week's Intra-day steep decline towards local Bottom in a rather semi-stable fashion with Hourly 4 chart already stepped in Bullish waters sessions ago. The main reason behind it was the strong decline on the DX (comfortably Trading below the #52-week Low's), which entered an Descending Channel and as I've mentioned these past few weeks on my remarks, has the strongest Short and Medium-term effect (positive) on Gold. Technically, there is only #1 session left before the symmetry of the Hourly 4 chart's cycle catches up as the sequence mimics the previous one. Subsequently, every decline since August #12 resulted as an Short-term relief rally which suddenly reversed in even more steeper decline (check August #22, August #29, September #1 and September #7). If fractal is yet to be repeated, I should expect Price-action to show stagnation and stall the uptrend, then kick-start aggressive takedown towards #3,200.80 benchmark configuration where I will be ready with my piercing Selling orders.
My position: I have announced that Gold is on undisputed Bullish trend and total Bullish domination as I've practically Bought every Bottom lately. My suggestion is to continue Buying the dips / every local Low's.
Gold on aggressive uptrend extension as expectedTechnical analysis: Gold seems to be recovering last week's Intra-day steep decline towards local Bottom in a rather semi-stable fashion with Hourly 4 chart already stepped in Bullish waters sessions ago. The main reason behind it was the strong decline on the DX (comfortably Trading below the #52-week Low's), which entered an Descending Channel and as I've mentioned these past few weeks on my remarks, has the strongest Short and Medium-term effect (positive) on Gold. Technically, there is only #1 session left before the symmetry of the Hourly 4 chart's cycle catches up as the sequence mimics the previous one. Subsequently, every decline since August #12 resulted as an Short-term relief rally which suddenly reversed in even more steeper decline (check August #22, August #29, September #1 and September #7). If fractal is yet to be repeated, I should expect Price-action to show stagnation and stall the uptrend, then kick-start aggressive takedown towards #3,200.80 benchmark configuration where I will be ready with my piercing Selling orders.
My position: I have announced that Gold is on undisputed Bullish trend and total Bullish domination as I've practically Bought every Bottom lately. My suggestion is to continue Buying the dips / every local Low's.
Tariff Exemptions Stir the Bounce | SPX Analysis 14 April 2025It’s Monday… and the markets are once again dancing like a puppet on a tweet-fuelled string.
One minute, tariff fears.
The next, selective exemptions for “favourites.”
Now the weekend’s over and futures are bouncing higher like none of it happened.
SPX looks set to test – or break – the 5400 bull trigger, and if you’ve been following the last few newsletters, you’ll know that’s a big one.
We’ve mapped it.
We’ve rejected it.
Now we’re staring it down… again.
---
The 5400 Line Returns
Let’s back up.
5400 has been my bull/bear trigger for weeks.
When we’re below it, I’m hunting bear swings.
Above? I start reassessing bullish setups, GEX bulls-eye trades, and pullback long entries.
This week, the GEX flip is also sitting around 5400.
That’s no coincidence.
It’s now more than just a price level –
It’s the emotional fault line between headline-driven panic and headline-driven hope.
So… do we flip bullish?
Not so fast.
Strategy: Structure First, Narrative Second
Just because futures are up doesn’t mean momentum is back.
We’ve seen far too many fakeouts, tweet-spikes, and algorithm blinks to trust the first move on a Monday.
That’s why my plan is simple this week:
✔️ 5400 is still the decision line
✔️ No aggressive trades until price confirms
✔️ Will adapt only if structure shifts – not just sentiment
This week isn’t about swinging for the fences.
It’s about precision. Patience. And setup clarity.
Behind the Charts: Tinkering, Rebuilding, Refining
While the markets work out their next identity crisis, I’m taking the time to:
Optimise my new charting layout
Tweak + update my indicator codebases
Re-align my tools for speed and efficiency
Because if the market wants to act like a circus,
I’ll tighten the tent and sharpen the knives.
---
Expert Insight – Don’t Rush the Flip
Common mistake:
Flipping long just because futures are green.
Fix:
Use anchored levels like 5400 as your decision points – and only flip bias when structure confirms.
GEX flips, pulse bars, and price action matter.
Tweets do not.
---
Fun Fact
Did you know?
In 2023–2024, over 60% of intraday SPX rallies over 1.5% failed to hold past 2 days when triggered by political headlines.
Translation?
Headline rallies are easy to sell into – unless they’re confirmed by price.
GBPCHF is BullishPrice was in a strong downtrend, however now it seems that bulls are assuming control of the price action. A triple bottom reversal formation with bullish divergence confirms bullish notion. If previous lower high is broken with good volume then we can expect a good reversal as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
DXY Current Outlook 4hr , Daily and weekly analysisAt its current level, the DXY (US Dollar Index) is at a critical zone where a potential bullish reversal could occur. It is plausible that the index could reverse somewhere between the 99.50 – 98.00 range. However, there is also a possibility that this zone could break, leading to further downside continuation, potentially targeting the 96.23 – 93.95 levels.
It’s important to always watch for potential reversal signs at key levels. The reversal, if it happens, will likely be confirmed by certain indicators or patterns—like reversal candlestick formations—that we’ve mentioned before. Once price reaches those zones, look out for any of those confirmation signals, and use your own trading experience to validate them.
That being said, it’s also realistic to consider that the current zone (between 99.00 – 98.00) might already be the point where the dollar begins a strong recovery.
Note: All scenarios are valid, and key levels should be monitored closely for signs of a shift in momentum TVC:DXY
BTC?
Hi,
as at now.
There were no rush of price movement.
Which is great.. low volume n volatility for buyside.
Max I would pay this round is 85K
Lowest would pay 84.3k range
Tonight till 2D
Im looking at target 90-91K
(IF it respects my buyside.. = SL don't hit & don't break my supports)
Will trade on leverage / managing my SL apprx 1000points
All the best.
Manage well... never a guru.
USDX-BUY strategy 12 hourly chart Regression channelFundamentally we understand the selling pressures on USD and technically also had confirmation for that as well. now we are very oversold (and even before), and since we cannot know the exact lows, we should carefully implement BUY strategy that survives. this is an individual choice and strategy.
Strategy BUY @ 99.20-99.60 and take profit near 101.57 for now.
Dollar Index Monthly Review: Key Support Levels with the help ofIn the first Fibonacci setup, we observe a retracement of the index to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, after which a trendline could be drawn. Applying a second Fibonacci retracement on the chart reveals that the Dollar Index once again found support within the 50.0%-61.8% zone.
In January of this year, the dollar attempted to break above the 110.00 level but encountered resistance at the 61.8% bullish retracement level. This led to another pullback, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward the trendline in the 98.50-99.00 zone. The 100.00 level is expected to act as support, though a temporary dip below this level within a consolidation phase is possible before another solid support is established.
Once a new support base is confirmed, the Dollar Index could initiate the next bullish rally, potentially forming a new high above the 116.00 level.
BITCOIN NEXT MOVES!Bitcoin’s Next Move
In the long run, it's clear—Bitcoin is the new digital gold. Any dip at this stage is a potential opportunity. With over 7 years of experience in Bitcoin analysis, I believe in the bigger picture and long-term value.
If you'd like me to analyze or give insights on any other coin, feel free to ask. And don’t forget to follow for more crypto updates and analysis!
EURUSD InsightWelcome, subscribers!
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- The U.S. and China have imposed retaliatory tariffs on each other, escalating trade tensions. As a result, the "Sell USA" sentiment has intensified, causing the U.S. Dollar Index to fall below the 100 level.
- The market expects that, due to the high tariffs between the U.S. and China, most trade—except for essential goods and high-margin items—will come to a complete halt. This is likely to lead to a rise in consumer prices.
- Amid growing concerns of a recession, U.S. Treasury bonds are failing to serve as safe-haven assets, raising doubts about the dollar. Most currencies have strengthened against the dollar.
- This week, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 0.25% at its April monetary policy meeting.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 16: U.K. March CPI, Eurozone March CPI, U.S. March Retail Sales, Bank of Canada Rate Decision
+ April 17: ECB Rate Decision, Fed Chair Powell Speech
+ April 18: Easter Holiday
EURUSD Chart Analysis
After a strong rally that formed a peak near the 1.15000 level, EUR/USD has partially retraced its gains. In the short term, further downside is expected, with 1.12500 likely to act as a key support level. A rebound is anticipated around this zone; however, if the price breaks below it, a deeper decline could follow. Should that happen, a new trading strategy will be established.
Beyond the Noise: US30 Analysis and Actionable Trade Ideas.Technical Analysis: US30 (Dow Jones)
📊 The US30 index is currently displaying a bearish trend on the weekly timeframe. We're observing a strong rally followed by a pullback into equilibrium when measured against the previous price swing range.
🔍 At present, the index sits in a premium zone, creating conditions where short positions may be accumulating for potential downside movement. However, market sentiment remains highly susceptible to external factors, particularly political statements and social media activity from key figures like Donald Trump.
⚠️ Given this unpredictability, a more prudent approach involves shifting focus to lower timeframes and following price action signals directly. The 30-minute chart presents a defined range that offers potential trade opportunities.
💡 Trade Idea: Monitor the current range on the 30-minute timeframe. A decisive break above the range could signal a long entry opportunity, while a break below may indicate a short entry position.
📈 This range-breakout strategy allows traders to adapt to market conditions rather than attempting to predict overall market direction, which has proven increasingly challenging in the current economic and political climate.
Not financial advice.
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Stop Loss 🛑:
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As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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