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Waiting for a Breakout to Create a New PeakGold Comments 25/02
Waiting for a Breakout to Create a New Peak
The overall trend is still up, with no signs of a reversal. However, there is no confirmation of the continuation of the uptrend.
Gold is adjusting to support levels to retest previous buying power.
Important support level 2918-2923
$PEPE Alt Elliott Wave CountAlt Elliott Wave Count, if the downturn continues further it increases the probability of this wave count we would get a rally but it would be the last one of this cycle. Odds increased towards this due to the failed impulse to the upside. I don't like this wave count and it's not the main count due to how long the wave (4) has extended 200+ days compared to (2) 130 days. But that Bybit hack crippled momentum at the right time to shift favor towards this count.
CYCLE 4 | UPDATE - BTC Possible Next Move into Sell ZoneA quick chart to outline BTCs possible next move up if bulls take control again as we enter in March out of the current consolidation zone.
What we would be looking for in this scenario is a retest and hold of the below 20W SMA | 21W EMA, sweeping our prior low of the current range. See daily charts below.
Daily Chart(S) Showing 1.618 Over Extension
Daily Chart(S) Showing 1.618 Over Extension & Daily Order Block
Back on the weekly, this will allow BTC to rest back down to the lower RSI line, hopefully put in some divergent behavior and push BTC up to our long term tracking Sell Zone area and the 1.618 Fix Extension region.
GBP/USD Short Setup: Rising BoE Rate Cut Bets Weigh on the PoundThe British Pound is facing renewed pressure, trading around $1.264, slightly below the 10-week high of $1.2669 reached on February 20th. With BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra advocating for a larger half-point rate cut, traders have increased their bets on monetary easing. Market expectations now price in 56 basis points of rate cuts this year, with the first cut likely by Juneโor even as early as May.
Weak consumer spending, subdued inflationary pressures, and a cooling labor market continue to support a dovish stance. Meanwhile, external factors, including Trumpโs tariff stance on Mexico and Canada and tougher restrictions on Chinaโs semiconductor industry, add to market uncertainty.
With the BoE leaning dovish and the USD potentially strengthening amid risk-off sentiment, GBP/USD looks primed for a short opportunity. Watch for potential breaks below $1.260 as confirmation of downside momentum. ๐๐ฐ
#GBPUSD #Forex #BoE #RateCuts #Trading #ForexAnalysis
XAUUSD Why Might GOLD Continue To Decline Further?Why Might Gold Continue to Decline Further?
According to our latest two analyses, price fluctuations have verified our first thoughts. During the initial bullish attempt, gold achieved a new all-time high of $2946.80 before retracing back below the structure to $2918.46. The following day, gold rose to $2954.80 before falling below the structure to $2916.60.
For the time being, we have had two distinct fake bullish breakouts.
Given the significant price reactions in that zone, Gold is likely to continue its bearish trend up to $2880.
However, selling gold remains extremely dangerous due to the strong upward trend. If severe market manipulation occurs again, the price might reach a new all-time high and exceed $2955. Based on the existing statistics, it appears like Gold has a larger chance of falling this time.
๐จ XAU/USD โ Fake Breakout & Bearish Move! ๐
๐ฐ Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart Breakdown
๐ Key Observations:
๐น False Breakouts at the resistance zone indicate a lack of bullish momentum.
๐น Price failed to hold above $2,946 - $2,954, confirming resistance.
๐น Strong rejection led to a sharp drop below $2,916, triggering downside targets.
๐น Bearish structure is forming, with lower highs & lower lows.
๐ Bearish Trade Setup:
๐ If price stays below $2,916, expect further downside towards:
๐ฏ $2,906.25
๐ฏ $2,889.18
๐ฏ $2,882.53 - $2,871.66 (final target)
๐ A break above $2,916 could invalidate the bearish scenario.
๐ Key Levels to Watch:
โ
Resistance: $2,946 - $2,954
โ
Support: $2,882 - $2,871
๐ฌ Will gold continue its bearish trend? Drop your thoughts below!๐๐ฅ
#gold #xauusd #forex #trading #priceaction #technicalanalysis
XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS LONG TRADE IDEA CHECK CAPTAIN This chart suggests a potential bullish reversal setup for gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe.
Key Observations:
1. Support Zone (Around 2,885 - 2,908):
The price recently dropped but found support around 2,885.926, suggesting possible buyer interest.
A horizontal support line indicates this level has been tested.
2. Potential Reversal & Upside Target:
A V-shaped recovery is anticipated, shown by the sharp upward arrow.
The price could first retest support before a strong bullish push toward 2,960.000, aligning with the previous trendline.
3. Red Resistance Zone (Above 2,920):
Previous price action faced resistance here, making it a key area to watch for confirmation of the bullish move.
Possible Trade Idea:
Entry: Around 2,885 - 2,908 if price confirms support.
Target: 2,960 (or adjust based on structure).
Stop Loss: Below 2,885 to limit downside risk.
Australian dollar awaiting inflation dataThe Australian dollar is steady after two straight losing trading days.ย In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6343, down 0.09% on the day.
Australia releases the consumer price index for January on Wednesday. Inflation has been moving higher, as CPI accelerated in December to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% and its highest level since August.ย The market estimate for January stands at 2.6%.
Inflation remains within the Reserve Bank of Australia's target band of 2%-3% but the central bank remains concerned about upside risks to inflation.ย The RBA finally lowered rates last week after maintaining rates for over a year and joined most of the major central banks which are in the midst of an easing cycle.ย The RBA delivered a "hawkish cut" as the central bank stated it "remains cautious" on the possibility of further cuts and the markets aren't expecting a rate cut before May.
The latest headache for RBA policymakers is the Trump administration which has hit China with tariffs and threatened to apply tariffs to other trading partners.ย This could lead to another trade war with China which would likely raise inflation and hurt China's economy.ย China is Australia's largest trading partner and a slowdown in China would hurt Australia's key export sector.
The US releases the Conference Board consumer confidence index later today. The market estimate stands at 102.5 for January, down from 104.1 in December. The US consumer is spending, as retail sales for December rose 0.4% m/m and 5.5% annualized from November. The labor market is strong, wages are outpacing inflation and the economy is humming. This rosy picture means that the Federal Reserve isn't under pressure to lower rates and the markets aren't expecting another rate cut before June.
AUD/USD tested support at 0.6331 earlier.ย Below, there is support at 0.6314
0.6362 and 0.6379 are the next resistance lines
SPY Weekly Chart! I think downtrend has startedFrom a weekly chart perspective, I think we are going to start bear market pretty soon. Volume has been the lowest and I also see TTM squeeze in the weekly which was last seen in the pandemic era. I really think that investors should sell or cover their open positions.
Netflix (NFLX) Scalping & Mid-Term Analysis๐ฅ Market Overview
Trend: Bearish ๐ (Strong downtrend)
Resistance: $972.00 โ EMA 9, acting as a short-term ceiling
Support: $955.00 โ Local demand zone
Indicators:
MACD: Bearish, no reversal confirmation
RSI: 41.53 (Neutral, no oversold signal yet)
VWAP: Below average, sellers still in control
๐ฉธ Risk: NFLX is in a short-term freefallโpossible more downside
๐ฅ Scalping Strategy (5x Leverage)
๐ฉธ Momentum Scalping:
Buy: Near $955.00โ$958.00, targeting $965.00 (+1.0%)
Sell: Near $970.00โ$972.00, targeting $958.00 (-1.2%)
Stop-loss: Below $952.00
๐ฉธ Breakout Scalping:
Above $975.00: Long to $985.00 (+1.6%)
Below $955.00: Short to $945.00 (-1.5%)
๐ฅ Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks)
Bullish above $980: If momentum shifts, expect $990-$1000
Bearish below $950: Freefall potential to $930-$920
๐ฅ News & Market Context
๐ฉธ No immediate catalysts, earnings in 56 days
๐ฉธ Sellers dominating, no major support nearby
๐ฅ Decision:
๐ฉธ Short-term: Scalp long near $955.00, sell at $965.00+
๐ฉธ Mid-term: NFLX is weakโbest play is waiting for lower entries
๐ฉธ Ideal Play: Short bounces, confirm strength before aggressive longs
๐ Final Verdict:
"Falling knives donโt make safe catchesโwait for the grip." โ LucanInvestor
Tesla (TSLA) Scalping & Mid-Term AnalysisMarket Overview
Trend: Strong Bearish ๐
Resistance: $309.30 โ EMA 200 acts as a ceiling
Support: $296.00 โ Local demand zone
Indicators:
MACD: Bearish, no reversal confirmation
RSI: Oversold (17.96 on 30m) โ potential for short-term bounce
VWAP: Below average โ sellers control momentum
๐ฉธ Risk: High probability of a short squeeze if volume spikes
๐ฅ Scalping Strategy (5x Leverage)
๐ฉธ Momentum Scalping:
Buy: Near $297โ$299, targeting $305
Sell: Near $305โ$309, targeting $298
Stop-loss: Below $295
๐ฉธ Breakout Scalping:
Above $310: Long to $318
Below $296: Short to $290
๐ฅ Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks)
If $310 holds, potential retest of $320
If $296 breaks, freefall to $285
๐ฅ News & Market Context
๐ฉธ Tesla planning major initiatives in early 2025, including Model Y Juniper launch & self-driving advancements โ Bullish Long-Term
๐ฉธ However, short-term market reaction is bearish due to macro pressures
๐ฅ Decision:
๐ฉธ Short-term: Scalp long near $297, sell at $305+
๐ฉธ Mid-term: Avoid heavy long positions until $310 breaks
๐ฉธ Ideal Play: Short bounces, enter longs only above $310
๐ Final Verdict:
"Survival isnโt about guessingโitโs about acting before the rest wake up." โ LucanInvestor
Time To Hunt Bitcoin - Buy from Support to Major ResistanceThe setup focuses on buying from strong support zones and riding the price up to multiple take-profit targets.
Entry Strategy:
Entry 1: Around $84,910.7, which aligns with a key support zone.
Entry 2: Around $78,430.4, a deeper support level in case of further downside.
Risk Management:
A stop loss at $65,523.5 ensures capital protection in case of a breakdown below major support.
Take Profit Levels:
Take Profit 1: $99,009.6 โ First resistance area where partial profits can be secured.
Take Profit 2: $106,102.9 โ A key level where momentum may slow down.
Take Profit 3: $110,919.3 โ The final target in case of a strong bullish rally.
Trade Scenario:
Bullish Case: If price holds above Entry 1, a bounce towards Take Profit levels is expected.
Bearish Case: If price drops below Entry 1, the next support (Entry 2) offers another buying opportunity.
Stop Loss Activation: If BTC drops below $65,523.5, the trade is invalidated, preventing further losses.
This trade plan follows a risk-reward approach, focusing on capital preservation while targeting high-probability reversal zones.
OKX:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD KUCOIN:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Positional View - MCX Crude oilAs shown in the attached chart, "Astra India Indicator" Positional Predictions worked perfectly once again. Now MCX Crude Oil having Resistance of 6100 (1 hour chart) and need to close a candle in green above that level (hourly basis) to shift in BULLISH mode otherwise it is BEARISH for the next few days.
Disclaimer:- All the shared views are for educational purposes only. We provide Technical Indicators only for educational purposes. As we are not SEBI registered, there will be no claim rights reserved. Please consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Opening (IRA): TQQQ April 17th 60 Covered Call... for a 57.91 debit.
Comments: Adding at strikes better than what I currently have on ... . Here, going lower net delta by selling the -84 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 57.91/share
Max Profit: 2.09
ROC at Max: 3.61%
50% Max: 1.05
ROC at 50% Max: 1.82%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
MARKET MAKERS' NEXT MOVE โ UNDENIABLE SELL CONFIRMATION!### ๐ real-time xau/usd (gold) market analysis โ february 26, 2025 ๐ฐ๐ฅ
๐ฐ๐ฅ we trade to milk the market everyday! ๐ฅ๐ฐ
no hesitation. no fear. high confidence. high profits.
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## ๐ current market overview ๐๐
๐น ๐ฒcurrent price: $2,942.635
๐น ๐ high of the day: $2,944.930
๐น ๐ major resistance (r3): $2,950.016 โ market makersโ liquidity grab zone!
๐น ๐ recently broken resistance (r2, now support): $2,940.010
๐น ๐ dynamic support (50 ema): $2,940.010 โ but we trade against weak hands!
๐น ๐ป targeting psychological support (s1): $2,925.104
---
## ๐ฅ institutional order flow & liquidity analysis โ smart money trap! ๐ฆ๐
๐ market makers' next move โ undeniable sell confirmation!
๐ฅ the trap is set! market makers are engineering a fake pump to trap retail buyers.
๐ massive liquidity sitting between $2,945 - $2,950 โ stop-hunts incoming!
๐ large institutional sell orders stacking in the order book at these levels!
๐ฆ institutions are offloading gold โ not buying! dump incoming!
---
## โ
best indicator confirmation โ high win rate!
โ fibonacci retracement: 38.2% ($2,943) & 50% ($2,946) rejection guaranteed.
โ 50 ema & 200 ema: dead cross forming! sell-only territory!
โ rsi (7): above 70 โ maximum sell rejection coming!
โ vwap: price failing to break vwap = perfect sell!
โ macd: bearish cross โ dump mode activated!
โ order flow & liquidity zones: all smart money is shorting! why would you hesitate?
---
## ๐ฅ ultra-aggressive sell setup โ 99% win rate!
๐ด sell setup locked in โ no doubt!
๐ entry: $2,943 - $2,945 (aggressive entry before retail panic!)
๐ stop-loss: $2,948 (tight sl, no excuses!)
๐ target #1: $2,935 (quick 5 pip profit โ easy money!)
๐ target #2: $2,930 - $2,925 (maximum milk the market profits!)
๐ risk-reward ratio: 3:1 โ the perfect money printing machine!
---
## ๐ extreme execution plan โ dominate or get dominated!
1๏ธโฃ wait for price to touch $2,943 - $2,945 and reject hard! (no fomo! wait for the fake pump!)
2๏ธโฃ watch the order book โ if large sell orders stack up, we strike!
3๏ธโฃ enter short with full confidence at $2,943 - $2,945!
4๏ธโฃ no fear, no second-guessing โ hold for $2,930 - $2,925!
5๏ธโฃ if market retests $2,948 โ small cut, re-enter higher! we milk the market!
---
### ๐ฅ final decision โ maximum aggression sell! ๐ฐ๐
๐ verdict: high-confidence sell! ๐ฅ this is a no-brainer!
๐ entry: $2,943 - $2,945 | sl: $2,948 | tp: $2,930 - $2,925
๐ market makers cannot trick us โ we trade with smart money! ๐ฆ๐
---
๐ฐ๐ฐ we trade to milk the market everyday! ๐ฐ๐ฐ
๐ this is the most high-confidence, aggressive gold trade of the day!
๐ฅ no fear. no retail traps. just profits! ๐ฅ
BTC Weekly Close Rejects 1.61 Break. I made a couple attempts at buying BTC. One just before the spike over 100K. Went up for a while and hit a breakeven trailing stop. Secondly I tried into the head fake low we had recently but cut that for a small profit yesterday.
In the bull setup I'd have wanted to see a much cleaner bounce off support. Seeing a range around support and indices trading into resistances has a more bearish tone to it.
If the 1.61 is failing to break we usually pullback to at least the 1.27 and if that breaks we usually see a slam.
Stop for bears have to be above the 1.61. Regaining the 1.61 would usually be very good for bulls here.
Protect profits at 1.27. If that breaks, big pay off it possible.