Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 9 - 13 JuneMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: UK Unemployment & GDP, US Inflation & PPI, Earnings Reports
In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode, we discuss:
— UK Unemployment Rate
— US Inflation Rate
— UK GDP Growth Rate
— US Producer Price Index
— Corporate Earnings Statements
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Zscaler Inc. (ZS) – Multi-Year Breakout with Target at $700📅 1D Chart | Smart Money Concepts | Fibonacci Extensions | Volume Profile
Price: $301.19 | Volume: 1.59M
ZS has officially broken through its prior consolidation structure and is now trading firmly in premium territory. With the 0.786 Fib level at $298.27 now reclaimed, momentum traders are eyeing a run toward higher extensions.
🔍 Key Technical Zones:
✅ Breakout Confirmed: Structure shifted after reclaiming $250–$275
🟨 Premium Zone Begins: $300+
📈 Major Fib Extensions:
1.236: $444.89
1.618: $569.36
2.0: $693.82
🟡 Suggested Exit Zone: ~$696–700 (historical extension confluence)
🧠 Smart Money Context:
Clean Break of Structure (BOS) after a long accumulation phase
Volume supports breakout behavior
Weekly CHoCH + BOS align with institutional positioning
Little resistance until the $440–700 range based on past structure gaps
💡 Trade Plan (Probabilistic):
Upside Continuation (70%): Strong bullish conviction, targeting $444 then $569
Pullback Re-entry (30%): Retest of breakout near $270–$298 may offer a second-chance entry
🛡 Risk Management:
Entry: Current levels or on pullback to $298
TP1: $444
TP2: $569
TP3: $696–700 (consider reducing exposure)
SL: Close below $280 (invalidates breakout thesis)
📌 Conclusion:
ZS is in an extended markup phase. As long as macro conditions remain favorable, a long ride toward $700 is technically plausible. Watch volume and institutional behavior closely as we climb into uncharted premium zones.
#ZS #Zscaler #BreakoutStocks #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #TechnicalAnalysis #PremiumZone #TradingView #EquityMomentum
BTC long-term prediction
Hi all,
After initial reflection on Bitcoin's long-term prospects (see link below), I would like to make a more detailed analaysis for it in the next two or three years.
Development cycles and characteristics
I'll devide the evolution of BTC into three main cycles:
Cycle 0: From the birth of BTC until November 2021
Cycle 1: From Nov 2011 to Nov 2018. In this cycle, we have observed two Halving events (November 28, 2012) and (July 9, 2016
Cycle 2: From Nov 2018 to Nov 2025. This cycle encompasses the most recent halving event (May 11, 2020) and the upcoming one (April 26, 2024)
In every cycle, BTC has the following common price action
Main Trendline Support: it confirms the exponential increase in BTC's price.
Cycle High: it is intriguing to observe that Cycle Highs tend to materialize approximately 1 to 1.5 years after the halving event (or the birth) of BTC
Break-down event: It happened two times and both on November (2011 and in 2018). This marks the end of a cycle.
About historical BTC Highs
Since its birth, BTC has achieved four Cycle Highs. Connecting two consecutive Cycle Highs with a trendline reveals that the slope of this line is halved (devided by 2) between two Halving Events. This gradual decrease in slope appears rational and organic, as exponential growth is typically unsustainable. What's even more intriguing is that this 1:2 ratio aligns with the reduction of mined BTC by half after each Halving Event (or the block reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions).
Predictions for the next Halving and beyond
By considering the aforementioned characteristics in BTC's evolution, we can utilize historical patterns to provide potential insights into the future. Here's a possible scenario:
Leading up to the 4th Halving (scheduled for April 26, 2024), BTC prices are likely to align with the blue support trendline, and significant deviations from this trendline are not anticipated.
Following the 4th Halving, BTC may enter an accelerated phase, potentially triggering a major bull run.
A new price high could be achieved somewhere between May and September 2025, based on historical averages of the time needed for BTC to reach a new high after halving.
This new price high is projected to be approximately $120k.
However, it's essential to note that a subsequent bear market is expected to follow, possibly manifesting in November 2025. During this phase, BTC may experience a gradual decline, with prices potentially dropping as low as $30k.
It's vital to remember that predicting the future with certainty in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is challenging and often speculative. These projections are based on historical trends and patterns but are subject to various unpredictable factors.
What do you think about this analysis and what is your price prediction for BTC in the next bullrun?
Trump’s $1,000 baby accounts: what it means for markets President Trump’s “Trump Accounts” proposal would give every American newborn a $1,000 investment account placed in a stock market index fund, managed by the child’s guardians. The plan is part of the Big Beautiful Bill and has support from CEOs including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who called it “a seed fund for America’s next generation.”
If passed, the plan could drive consistent inflows into U.S. equity markets and benefit platforms like Robinhood, Vanguard, and BlackRock. Robinhood’s CEO will attend the White House event announcing the plan.
Robinhood shares are trading near multi-year highs, boosted by strong earnings and the acquisition of crypto exchange Bitstamp.
Shares also rallied recently on hopes the company would be added to the S&P 500, an inclusion that typically attracts passive fund inflows. While it wasn’t selected in the latest rebalancing, continued growth keeps it on watch for future inclusion.
"GBP/USD is cooking inside a trianglePair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 4H
Strategy: Elliott Wave + Triangle Pattern + Breakout
Formation: Contracting Triangle – Wave 1 to 5
Risk-Reward: High Probability Setup
Status: Pre-breakout phase
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
A clean contracting triangle is forming, completing all 5 internal waves within the structure.
Wave 5 looks exhausted and price is rejecting trendline resistance.
Expecting a bearish breakout from the triangle.
Target zone = 1.34759, aligning with previous liquidity + measured move.
Entry area refined with supply zone + minor structure break (as seen in inset schematic).
🎯 Target: 1.34759
🛑 Stop Loss: Above triangle resistance
🟢 Entry Trigger: After breakout + retest or SMC confirmation
This setup matches Elliott Wave’s triangle structure behavior – typically occurring before the final push in a larger correction or continuation.
Gold Weekly Chart May Form a Mid-Term Bearish Pattern (3142)Gold faced resistance near 3338 and has pulled back,
but the 2-hour chart still suggests that the rebound isn’t over yet, with short-term targets at 3340–3350.
—
📌 For Long Position Holders:
If you're stuck in long positions, consider adding near 3326–3316 support
to average down the cost and prepare for an exit on the next rebound.
⚠️ However, be mindful of your account risk —
If your position is deeply in the red or the account is under pressure, closing out early might be the smarter move.
—
📅 Key Focus This Week: Weekly Chart Signals Critical
🔸 Price is currently testing weekly MA10 — a break below it would target MA20 around 3142
🔸 On the daily chart, MA60 is at 3234, and if support near 3388 breaks,
combined with weak rebound volume, a bearish trend could be confirmed.
In that case, even the 3273 support may fail under bearish momentum.
—
📣 Bottom Line: The bullish setup isn’t invalidated yet,
but caution is crucial when trading long —
📉 If momentum fades, adjust your strategy quickly to protect capital.
Head and Shoulders PatternLululemon’s chart looks extremely bearish. It’s make or break for this stock. A breakdown of its current support would confirm the break of the neckline in a Head and Shoulders pattern. The 1:1 extension of the move could send the stock price down another 50%, towards $130. Yikes!
The 5 Wave supercycle ended at the Head, around $520. The stock then crashed in an abc correction, rejected at the golden ratio at $420. We are now hanging onto support, $234 is the last hope before potential calamity.
That might seem dramatic but all it would take is for tariffs to eat into the profits and the company will be under significant margin pressure. The technicals and fundamentals don’t look great.
Be careful buying the dip on here. It looks like a falling knife. I’d rather be short, but currently have no position.
Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
Trade Long on TLT: Opportunities Amid Weakness in Treasuries
Targets:
- T1 = $86.50
- T2 = $88.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $84.00
- S2 = $83.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in TLT.
**Key Insights:**
TLT, which represents long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, is currently trading at discounted levels following recent declines. This weakness stems from macroeconomic concerns and tightening monetary policies. Traders are paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, as hawkish behavior continues to suppress bond prices. However, current oversold conditions paired with strong technical levels around $85.00 suggest a potential reversal. A move higher could be catalyzed by dovish signals from policymakers or slowing inflation data, which may ease investor fears about prolonged rate hikes.
Treasuries often act as safe havens during volatile market conditions, and seasoned investors see value in entering positions during times of weakness. Traders should also monitor global economic indicators, as international risk events could fuel additional demand for long-term U.S. bonds.
**Recent Performance:**
Over the past week, TLT has experienced bearish pressure, losing nearly $1.50 in value. The asset's decline mirrors broader fixed-income struggles, with junk bonds (JNK) showing parallel weakness. However, late-stage declines and deceleration in momentum suggest stabilization might soon occur. TLT has maintained its position near the critical $85.00 support zone, hinting at limited further downside, especially as bond yields stabilize.
**Expert Analysis:**
Technical analysts highlight that TLT's Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, reinforcing the likelihood of bullish momentum. Historical price action indicates that dips below $85.00 historically see swift recoveries, driven by renewed buying interest from institutional players. Additionally, macroeconomists suggest that reduced bond issuance paired with moderating inflation could support TLT prices in the medium term.
The current price range provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for those with an intermediate to long-term outlook. Tactical entries at these levels could yield gains if market dynamics shift in favor of easing rate pressures or economic uncertainties drive bond demand.
**News Impact:**
Recent news highlights sustained investor caution as markets digest hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve and await key economic data such as CPI and employment figures. While TLT remains under pressure from elevated bond yields, geopolitical tensions and emerging-market volatility could bolster demand for U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe-haven play. Events such as unexpectedly weak inflation data or dovish commentary from policymakers could further aid TLT's recovery.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Based on the analysis, TLT presents a favorable long opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on oversold conditions and technical support around $85.00. The proposed targets of $86.50 and $88.00 provide attainable high-probability price points, while stop-loss levels at $84.00 and $83.00 ensure minimal risk exposure. Monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy announcements will be crucial in confirming the bullish outlook. Entering long positions at current levels provides a compelling risk-to-reward setup, aligning with professional trader consensus.
DELL eyes on $116.10: Golden Genesis fib will determine TrendDELL has been a sleepy stock with mixed earnings.
Now testing a proven Golden Genesis at $116.01
Look for a Break-and-Retest to start an Uptrend.
.
See "Related Publications" for other plots ---------------------->>>>>>>
This one in particular is caught the BOTTOM exaclty:
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Weekly Chart Analysis –Elliott Wave, Channel, and RSI DivergenceApple’s weekly chart is showing a textbook Elliott Wave structure within a well-defined ascending channel. After completing a corrective (A)-(B)-(C) pattern for Wave 4, price action is now setting up for the next impulsive move.
Key Technical Highlights:
Elliott Wave Count:
The chart shows that Waves (1), (2), (3), and (4) are complete. The recent correction held at the lower channel boundary, suggesting Wave 4 is likely done and Wave 5 is about to begin.
Channel Support:
Price is respecting the long-term ascending channel. A retest of the lower channel (around the $180s) is possible, which would act as a strong support and an ideal launchpad for Wave 5.
RSI Divergence:
The RSI has formed multiple bearish divergences at previous peaks, accurately signaling corrections. Now, a bullish divergence is developing—RSI is making higher lows while price action makes lower lows—indicating waning bearish momentum and a potential reversal.
MACD & Volume:
MACD is stabilizing and could cross bullish near the channel support. Volume spikes at key turning points reinforce the significance of these levels.
Trade Plan & Outlook:
Watch for a retest of the $180s zone, where the lower channel and bullish RSI divergence converge.
If price holds this support and RSI confirms, it could mark the start of Wave 5, targeting the upper channel (potentially $280+).
Risk management: A sustained close below the channel would invalidate this bullish setup.
Summary:
Apple is at a critical juncture: a successful retest of the $180s with confirming RSI divergence could launch the 5th Elliott Wave, targeting new highs. Keep an eye on price action and momentum indicators for confirmation.
EUR-CHF Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-CHF is making a rebound
And will soon hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 0.9400
From where we will be
Expecting a local bearish
Pullback and a move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XAU / USD 30 Minute ChartHello traders. As per my last analysis a few hours ago, I ended up taking kind of an impulse micro lot scalp Buy trade. Total profit of about 50 pips. Done for the day. Big G gets my thanks. Let's see how things play out over the next few hours. Be well and trade the trend. Happy Monday
US30 – Price at Key Decision Point 42,810US30 | Technical Analysis
🔺 Current Scenario:
The price is now testing the pivot line at 42,810.
A 4H candle close above this level may confirm a bullish continuation toward the resistance zone at 43,212–43,350, and possibly extend to 43,763.
🔻 Alternative Scenario:
If price fails to hold above 42,810 and drops back below, we could see a pullback toward 42,410, with further downside to 42,158 and 41,777 if that breaks.
Pivot Line: 42810
Resistance Zone: 43212, 43350, 43763
Support Levels: 42410, 42158, 41777
Bullish reversal?XAU/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,326.41
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,295.18
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 3,364.06
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Gold fluctuates repeatedly, hiding great opportunities!After the opening of gold today, the bulls and bears played fiercely. In the early trading, it fell to 3293 and received temporary support, then stabilized and rebounded. It broke through the high point of 3320 in the Asian session and continued to rise above 3330. However, the price was under obvious pressure near 3330, and the momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) showed a top divergence at the same time, reflecting the exhaustion of bullish momentum and limited short-term upside space.
From the technical structure, gold has effectively fallen below the middle track support of the H4 cycle, and at the same time lost the upward trend line built since the low point in June. The two breakout positions are highly overlapped, constituting an obvious technical weakening signal. The current trend is trapped in the key resistance suppression area, and it is expected to enter a high-level shock and weakening stage.
The operation suggestions are as follows:
🔸Strategy direction: short-term thinking
🔸Entry area: 3335–3345 range
🔸Defense reference: stop loss above 3350
🔸Target expectation: look down to 3305, break to 3293 or even 3280 near the extension support
In terms of fundamentals, the US dollar index is under short-term pressure, mainly due to the decline in the US fiscal outlook and US Treasury yields; but the non-agricultural data boosted economic resilience, which cooled the market's expectations for a rapid rate cut this year, restricting the rebound space of gold prices. Although risk aversion has support, it has not yet become a dominant driver. The current market sentiment remains cautiously neutral.
Overall judgment: The short-term rebound of gold prices is limited, and the short-term trend is gradually released after the structural break. It is recommended to follow the trend and go high, control risks, and steadily execute trading plans.