TESLA Lagging BehindA compelling reason to buy Tesla stock now—despite it being beaten down—is the asymmetric risk-reward setup driven by its depressed valuation relative to long-term growth potential. Sentiment is currently low due to concerns about EV demand, competition, and Elon’s distractions, but this pessimism is largely priced in. Meanwhile, Tesla still holds massive optionality: AI-driven autonomy, energy storage, and Dojo supercomputing. If even one of these verticals scales meaningfully, current prices may prove a generational entry.
At the moment, we are hitting some of my key support levels being the anchored vwap from the low , as well as the previous Value Area High range retest within the formation of this broader triangle, suggesting a potential continuation to the upside should we get a strong breakout.
I will be watching for further down side as the current risk is only approx 6-7% for a potential upside of 60%-70% , a massive Risk to reward.
Should this reclaim the downtrend vwap, it can be a strong sign of strength for this stock to move back to ATH's as tesla is massively lagging behind.
Community ideas
Gold: Eyes on QML Zone for Potential Reaction Before Deeper DropHello guys!
Let's go deep into the GOLD chart!
Price has completed a liquidity grab near 3440 (marked as "a hunting") and is now heading downward toward a key QML zone.
First, a reaction is expected around the QML area (3180–3220), where previous structural interest and demand may cause a temporary bounce.
After this reaction, the price is likely to retest higher, potentially forming a lower high.
Then, the dominant bearish structure is expected to continue, with a possible sharp drop toward the final demand zone around 3050–3080.
This movement represents a classic manipulation.
HFTUSDT Forming Falling WedgeHFTUSDT is currently displaying a textbook Falling Wedge Pattern, a classic signal that often points to an upcoming bullish reversal. This pattern is one of the most reliable in technical analysis, as it indicates that sellers are gradually losing momentum and buyers could soon step in to push prices higher. With good volume backing up this setup, traders are growing more confident that a breakout is on the horizon, which could fuel a strong upward rally.
The potential gain for HFTUSDT based on this pattern is estimated between 90% to 100%+, making it an attractive opportunity for swing traders and investors looking for high-risk, high-reward plays. The steady uptick in volume suggests that smart money is already accumulating positions before the anticipated breakout. When combined with the bullish pattern, this sets the stage for a price surge once the resistance line of the wedge is convincingly broken.
This setup comes at a time when the crypto market sentiment is gradually improving, with traders seeking altcoins that can outperform in the next bullish wave. HFTUSDT’s clear technical structure and growing investor interest place it among the top coins to watch closely. A confirmed breakout with strong daily closes above the wedge resistance could open the door to quick gains, rewarding early entrants who position themselves strategically.
It’s always wise to monitor volume and price action carefully when trading a Falling Wedge Pattern like this. Waiting for a confirmed breakout with increased volume can help reduce the risk of false signals and maximize profit potential. Keep HFTUSDT on your radar if you’re aiming to catch a move with solid technical backing and high potential upside.
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Gold 30 Min Engaged ( Dual Entry's Detected )➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸 Bullish Reversal : 3309
Volume Poc + Value
🩸 Bearish Reversal : 3284
Volume Poc + Value
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Bitcoin has dropped for profitable purchasesBitcoin is within the range. Quite a bit of time has passed since the last retest, and the liquidity pool that has formed below 106345 may not allow the price to fall on the first attempt.
Global and local trends are bullish. Enter a buy position after a false breakout of support and the formation of a local reversal pattern on TF m5-m15
Scenario: if, after a false breakout, price consolidation forms above 106500, then the entry point could be a breakout of local highs (breakout of the structure - ‘bos’).
AUDUSD: Bullish Continuation After Breakout 🇦🇺🇺🇸
AUDUSD is going to rise more following a bullish breakout
of a key daily/intraday horizontal resistance.
Next goal - 0.66
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Trading Recommendations for NZD/USDNZD/USD remain in a dominant bullish wave that began in April. Wave extremes from a "horizontal pennant" on the chart. The bearish phase since May 26 remains a part of internal correction. The bullish leg from June 23 has reversal potential.
Weekly Forecast:
The pair is likely to continue its upward movement for a few more days. A sideways trend and reversal conditions are expected near the resistance zone. Downward movement becomes more probable in the second half of week.
Potential Reversal Zones
Resistance: 0.6070 / 0.6120
Support: / 0.5940 / 0.5890
Recommendations:
Selling: Low potential and potentially risky.
Buying: Can be considered if reversal signals appear near the support zone.
SILVER (XAGUSD): Pullback From SupportIt seems that the time has come for 📈SILVER to experience a pullback.
This morning, I've observed a solid intraday bullish signal with the emergence of a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.
I anticipate a pullback to at least 36.61, followed by a move to 36.95.
GBPUSD opportunity to go SHORTThe pair has been showing weakness for some time through RSI divergence.
On hourly chart it printed the indecision candle followed by two red candles. This gives us the cue for bearish momentum.
Since we need multiple reasons to short sell so we identify the recent low and if the price goes lower than this than we initiate a short trade.
For ready reference the TPs have been marked on chart.
wishing you a PROFIT-able trading.
WTI Oil – From Conflict to StrategyBack on April 24, I marked a short zone. On June 11, price broke above that level, giving a long opportunity — which I took.
Unfortunately, it coincided with the tragic military strike by Israel on Iran, pushing oil sharply higher. I’ve pinned that analysis.
Following the ceasefire, price dropped again — just a reminder that geopolitics can shake the charts.
As traders, we stay prepared to act, even while acknowledging the deep sadness of lives lost.
Now I wait for price to reach my marked level again. If I get a valid signal, I’ll short.
But if price breaks and holds above, I’ll buy the pullback — with no bias, just pure execution.
Risk-managed. Emotion-neutral. Opportunity-focused.
Bitcoin Short Setup at Key Daily ResistanceIn this analysis, you will find a clear scenario for a potential short setup with precise conditions for confirmation and invalidation. No fluff or guesswork—only institutional analysis of capital footprints and pure price action. I will provide updates for every stage of price interaction with the POI in near real-time, so you can make timely trading decisions, not just observe events after the fact.
Context: What Happened Before?
Bitcoin has perfectly played out Scenario 2 from my previous long analysis. After the liquidity sweep below, which confirmed that the instrument is locked in a large global range, it began an aggressive, correction-less rally. This is often the case after absorbing a large amount of liquidity, which essentially became the fuel for this rise.
The Short Setup
To break out of the range to the upside (or at least make a deviation above it), Bitcoin must overcome the first serious resistance zone. This zone consists of:
The 78.6% Fibonacci level from the daily structure.
Liquidity from the Previous Week's High (PWH).
My plan is to look for a short position if we see a reversal reaction from this zone after the liquidity is taken. The minimum target for this move would be the lower boundary of the range and the daily order block located there. This local move inside the range can be seen as a shorting opportunity.
Invalidation of the Short Scenario:
A break of the 78.6% level with the price closing firmly above it would cancel the short scenario. In that case, Bitcoin would likely continue its move towards the next resistance level.
Statistical Tendencies in Market StructureMarket Disorder
Involvement in financial markets occurs for a variety of reasons, including speculation, hedging, liquidation, automation, and rebalancing. These are executed by a broad range of participants, such as funds, banks, algorithms, and retail traders. These operate across different timeframes and objectives. The same information could lead to different interpretations and execution.
This creates structural disorder. The market does not behave in a clean or deterministic manner. Behaviour is shaped by overlapping flows, unknown motivations, and shifting expectations. While each trade is executed with intent and structure, the collective result of these actions creates disorder. From the perspective of a technical trader, outcomes could appear no different from randomness. In practice, this is experienced as noise or inconsistent behavior.
Randomness in Market Theory
Traditional financial models like the Random Walk Hypothesis (RWH) suggest that price movements are random and not influenced by past behavior. In other words, markets exhibit no memory and each price change is statistically unrelated to the prior ones. In case this would be true, no historical data or technical method would provide a reliable basis for forecasting future prices. In such a market, price behavior would be indistinguishable from statistical noise. Apparent trends would arise by coincidence, and no persistent trading edge could be developed.
A visual example of a chart based on a random walk. Price evolves through multiplicative steps without memory, reflecting the assumptions of the Random Walk Hypothesis.
Multiple experiments have shown that when traders are presented with randomly generated charts, they tend to perceive them as genuine market data. This reflects a common cognitive bias: the tendency to perceive structure even where none exists. Much of what is interpreted as meaningful could be the result of psychological projection, pattern recognition, or hindsight bias applied to what is essentially noise. Randomness can resemble market data, which makes it difficult to differentiate between valid and coincidental patterns.
Market Tendencies: Departures from Randomness
Not all aspects of market behavior conform to the random walk model. In particular, certain patterns appear to be consistent and do not fit the definition of pure randomness. These patterns are not statistical anomalies in the dismissive sense, but measurable and repeatable features of price action. It is from these deviations that systematic trading methods can be developed.
Volatility Clustering
Volatility clustering refers to the tendency for large price changes to be followed by more large changes, and for small changes to be followed by more small changes. This effect does not imply direction, but indicates that the magnitude of price changes tends to show persistence. This helps explain why markets transition between calm periods and phases of high turbulence, rather than constant variance. The behavior violates the random walk assumption that each price change is independent from the last.
A visual example of volatility clustering, with columns marking periods where rolling volatility exceeds a dynamic threshold.
This pattern is central to many econometric and trading models. It forms the basis for regime-based strategies and conditional volatility systems such as ARCH (Engle, 1982) and GARCH (Bollerslev, 1986). Mandelbrot (1963) first described the phenomenon in the context of financial turbulence.
Momentum
Momentum refers to the observed tendency of markets to continue moving in the same direction over short- to intermediate-term timeframes. In statistics, this is shown as positive serial correlation in returns. In simple terms, recent winners tend to keep winning, and losers tend to keep losing.
A visual example of momentum, showing the slope of a linear regression line over a rolling window. Positive values indicate upward movement, negative values indicate downward movement.
Momentum contradicts the idea that price changes are independent and identically distributed. The effect has been extensively documented across markets and asset classes. Foundational research includes Jegadeesh and Titman (1993), Carhart (1997), and the cross-asset studies by Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013). It is a key principle behind trend-following strategies.
Mean Reversion
Mean reversion describes the tendency of prices to return to a long-term average after deviating significantly. This behavior implies negative feedback: the further price moves from its mean, the greater the probability of a reversal.
A visual example of mean reversion, showing the deviation of price from its moving average. Baseline is centered at zero, with positives above the mean and negatives below.
This effect challenges the assumption that markets move without anchor. It is most evident in valuation-driven models, short-term overreaction trades, and statistical arbitrage. Empirical support includes long-term reversals (DeBondt and Thaler, 1985), medium-term autocorrelation (Poterba and Summers, 1988), and short-term corrections (Jegadeesh, 1990; Lehmann, 1990).
Conceptual Differentiation
These deviations from randomness have different statistical profiles. Volatility clustering reflects persistence in the magnitude of price changes. Momentum is defined by positive autocorrelation in returns, meaning recent trends tend to continue. Mean reversion is characterized by negative autocorrelation, where extreme moves are more likely to reverse. Together, these effects define some of the limited but viable edges that exist within an otherwise random market.
Strategic Implications for Trading
Comprehending these deviations from randomness helps clarify two broad categories of trading strategies, each shaped to exploit different forms of market behavior.
Momentum forms the foundation of trend-following strategies. These approaches are built on the premise that price movements often persist over time. Traders applying this logic aim to buy strength and sell weakness, anticipating that trends will continue. The core idea is that price is more likely to extend its current direction than to reverse. Common techniques include:
Breakout-Based Entries
Trend Pullback Trades
Continuation Patterns
Mean reversion, by contrast, serves as the basis for contrarian strategies. These methods are shaped around the observation that extreme price movements tend to reverse. Traders using this approach aim to sell strength and buy weakness when price diverges sharply from a perceived equilibrium. The underlying principle is that price tends to return toward its average following an overextension. Techniques include:
Fading Overextension
Range-Based Trades
Statistical Divergence Setups
Momentum and mean reversion coexist in markets, but their relative influence has variance. In some periods, one could dominate; in others, both have comparable effects. This balance shapes market structure. Recognizing this concept helps contextualize price action and adapt to the current environment.
Interpretation and Standardization
Many individuals enter the market with the misconception that technical analysis is a tool for predicting future price movements. However, its true value lies in interpretation. Technical charts provide information about structure and sentiment, which helps us take a reasonable bet. In a sense, there is a prediction based on the past, but with uncertainty. This interpretative approach, combined with a well-tested method, creates a solid foundation.
Markets are not a math problem with a fixed solution. If they were predictable, all variables could be quantified and outcomes automated with precision. In reality, even systematic approaches require discretion and adaptation. Markets are complex environments shaped by uncertainty and disorder. Even the most robust methods encounter both wins and losses.
It is also important to understand the role of perception. As humans, we are wired to find patterns, even in random data. We may focus on evidence that supports our expectations, see structure where none exists, or assume past events were obvious in hindsight. These tendencies often lead to overconfidence and unreliable interpretation. A related issue is overfitting, where methods that appear effective on historical data fail to translate. These may seem precise in hindsight but often lack the ability to generalize, usually due to selective parameter tuning or retrospective reasoning.
The solution is not added complexity, but standardization. To separate random movement from meaningful structure, chart interpretation must rely on consistent and objective criteria. A pattern is not meaningful in isolation but gains relevance when it departs from statistical norms. This must be combined with a probabilistic mindset, where each trade is treated as uncertain and evaluated as part of a broader process.
The content in this post is extracted from the book The Art of Technical Trading by StockLeave for educational purposes.
GOLD – Waiting for Breakout Above Downtrend Channel Toward 3395Gold is trading within a well-defined downtrend channel on the 30-minute chart.
Price has consistently respected the channel resistance, making lower highs and lows.
Recent bullish momentum is pushing against the upper boundary of the channel.
No confirmed breakout yet – price remains capped by the trendline resistance.
We’re seeing an inverted flag and pole formation that suggests pressure is building.
A clean break and close above the channel would confirm bullish intent.
Plan:
1.Wait patiently for a confirmed breakout before entering buys.
2.Avoid early entries while price is still inside the channel.
3.Watch for retest and hold above the broken channel as ideal confirmation.
4.Target move toward 3395 if breakout is successful.
Bias:
1.Bullish only on confirmed breakout and retest.
2.Bearish continuation possible if price fails to break the channel.
3.Discipline and patience are key – let the market confirm direction.
Like, comment, share, and follow for more trade ideas.
OMUSDT Approaching Demand ZonesOMUSDT has seen a sharp decline from its peak and is now approaching key demand zones. Price is reacting around a weak support level, with further downside likely toward the Internal PRZ (around $0.1039) and at this zone major reversal should happen unless if unexpected happen then the next area to keep an eye on is the External Strong PRZ (near $0.0259) which is mostly unlikely.
A strong bullish structure could form from these zones, targeting a long-term recovery toward $0.44, $0.87, and ultimately the $4.00 which serves as projected final setup target zone.
Watch price behavior closely at these levels for early signs of reversal.
We spotted the previous falling wedge setup accurately and this time will not be difference, make sure not to miss the opportunity when the price reaches the projected zone.
GBP_JPY WILL GROW|LONG|
✅GBP_JPY made a pullback
From the resistance above just
As we predicted, however, the
Pair made a retest of the horizontal
Support below around 196.500 and
We are already seeing a beautiful
Rebound so as the pair is in the
Uptrend we will be expecting
A further bullish move up
LONG🚀
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Bitcoin - An Epic Move Awaits!Bitcoin gained 13% in H1 2025, outperforming Ethereum and Solana, which dropped ~25% and ~17% respectively—highlighting BTC's strength in turbulent market conditions.
Institutional wedge: spot-BTC ETFs saw huge inflows—BlackRock’s took in $336M, and total crypto product inflows approached $45B+ this year.
AI models foresee BTC holding $105K+ by end-June, with ChatGPT pointing to $118K and Grok forecasting $108K, based on momentum and ETF flows.
We see BTC holding the 20 MA and spiking to new all time highs.