THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A good day on gold following the KOG Report yesterday where we said we would be looking for the lower level (red box support active) to hold price and give us the push up for the long trade. We managed to grab that trade and complete a majority of our targets before suggesting traders protect and manage their trades. Our indicators were showing a decline which happened and as you can see we've bounced the 2930 level again.
We now have support below 2940 which needs to break, and unless broken the first hurdle to cross is the 2948 level for the coming session. We're thinking we'll stick with the plan, not having caught that short, we'll wait higher and see if we get confirmation again.
We want traders to play caution here on longs to high up, a sudden turn can cause an aggressive correction. Please use the levels and the red boxes which are being shared.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 2920 with targets above 2945✅, 2949✅, 2952✅, 2955✅ and above that 2970
Bearish below 2920 with targets below 2916, 2910, 2906, and below that 2898
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 2943 for 2947✅, 2950✅, 2955✅, 2962, 2966 and 2977 in extension of the move
Break below 2930 for 2923, 2920, 2910, 2906 and 2899 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Community ideas
No Altseason Until Other.D Reclaims the UptrendApparently $Other.D has broken through the upper trend line for weeks.
In the past four times, altcoins surged when other.d touched the trend line.
Now it has broken this pattern.
We will not have altcoin season until it goes back to above the upper trend line.
In the past few weeks, those shorting altcoins outside the Top 10 have actually made more profit.
Hang in there, for those who waiting for altseason.
🔴 Read my signature & publications for more info you don’t want to miss.
🔥 for more future "guesses" like this!
Xrp - Market Structure Is Just Super Bullish!Xrp ( CRYPTO:XRPUSD ) is still 100% dominated by bulls:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With the massive +650% rally over the past couple of months, Xrp perfectly broke out of a long term ascending triangle formation. We already saw a retest of this previous resistance which is now turned support and Xrp is now simply starting the continuation of the bullish rally.
Levels to watch: $2.0, $4.0
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Ethereum (ETH): Sellers Are Taking Over $2000 Incoming...Well, sellers took over the local push we had here and broke the supportive trend, resulting in a decent drop as well.
As our upper buy entry failed, we are going to look for lower zones to be reached now, which are in the $2000 area.
From there we will be looking for some kind of BoS to form on smallertimeframes and overtake of buying volume so, we expect a further drop for now.
Swallow Team
XRP: Looks Much Better Now (8X)I am looking at XRP's chart and it looks much better now.
Just four days ago we looked at the chart and I wasn't convinced. Now, it looks much better, I am convinced.
Technical Analysis | XRPUSDT
It seems we are going for a higher low. I will not bore you with too many details because it is highly probable that you know all of these signals better than I.
Let's just say the candle 3-Feb. reveals a strong buying bias.
This leads to the next drop ending as a higher low. We are in higher low territory now so it is possible that from this point on XRPUSDT will grow.
It can always shake a bit more but that's normal, it just needs a mention for all those 50-100X gamblers.
Our focus is a little more long-term based. We don't have to catch the exact low price but we do want to catch the reversal of the trend.
To be honest, I don't know about the chart, but XRP is going up.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
Ichimoku: Bitcoin Bull Trend EndsFor years I have been publishing on Tradingview the Ichimoku Cloud trend analysis for Bitcoin. It is now time to update the analysis as a major event has occurred recently.
Most analysts and students of Bitcoin price cycles agree that the bull trend is likely to end in 2025. Well, it is that year now. Optimists seem to have thought that it would be later in the year and slightly higher. I don't think that is going to be. Despite rumors of government Bitcoin bailouts (aka Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) each proposal has been struck down in state Congresses. I do not think it was a serious plan to begin with; just election hype.
Back to what matters; the Technical Analysis. First, we will list the rules for Ichimoku Cloud Breakouts as I use them:
Bullish Trend Begins
Price is above the cloud
Lagging Span (or Chikou in Japanese) is above the cloud
Bearish Trend Begins
Price is below the cloud
Lagging Span is below the cloud
When price is inside the cloud it is considered neutral. Only when the reverse of these conditions happen can we say that the trend has reversed. That means if we do not have both conditions the prior trend remains active.
An example of when the original bullish trend of the current price cycle began was on January 12, 2023:
Bitcoin has had many bearish cycles ranging from losing -78% to -90%. The true strength of this strategy is keeping investors out during Bitcoin's bearish cycles. The last example began December 4, 2021.
With any trading strategy one should validate the results so I encourage everyone to do the work and test these signals. I have done this over the years to save readers' time. Here are the results if we began on the signal that occured April 13, 2011:
When compared to buying 1 Bitcoin and "HODL" or never selling an investor would have more than 5 times the value and Bitcoin at the end of 14 years.
Like any strategy this one has weaknesses. Because it is a trend following strategy it will have many incorrect signals during periods of time when price has very little movement. However, over the long run avoiding the long periods of large drawdowns will make the strategy outperform.
My long term plan will be based on the past Bitcoin bearish cycles which have been between -75% and -94%. Somewhere starting at 25,000 I will begin looking to get bullish again as the cycle will continue. I remain heavily short NASDAQ:MSTR via Puts for that scheme to collapse entirely over the next 2 years.
Thank you for reading and trade wisely!
How to Set Multiple TPs...for BeginnersHey Rich Friends,
I wanted to share how I find multiple TPs for my Forex trades using free tools and only 1 technical indicator. This strategy is perfect for beginners because it is easy to follow and has clear confirmations for entering and exiting a trade in profit, even if it hits your Stop Loss.
I keep my charts clean and let price action do the talking. Here's my setup:
✅ Session Breaks & Horizontal Lines – I mark the previous day’s highs, lows, and key levels to identify potential areas of interest.
✅ Stochastic for Entries & Exits – I use the Stochastic indicator to time my trades when the price reacts at my key levels (80 and 20 are very important here!)
✅ Horizontal Lines = Potential TPs – Instead of setting a take profit, I let the market tell me when to exit based on price action around these levels.
Less noise, more precision. Drop a "7" if you made it to the end of the video and let me know if it was helpful!
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Long-Term Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold: A New Bullish Cycle let's review Gold Waves!
Wave I (1971-1974):
The initial rise in the early 1970s represents Wave I of the first large cycle. During this time, gold prices surged significantly due to the ending of the Bretton Woods system and the subsequent decoupling of the US dollar from gold. The price increases were driven by growing inflation concerns and geopolitical instability. This is a primary impulsive wave.
The end of Wave I appears around 1974, where gold saw a significant peak.
Wave II (1974-1976):
Wave II is a corrective phase, where prices corrected lower after the initial rally of Wave I. This wave retraced a portion of Wave I and is a typical ABC correction (labeled as the ABC corrective structure on the chart).
After reaching the low point, the market started another impulsive wave up.
Wave III (1976-1980):
Wave III is the strongest and most aggressive part of the cycle. This wave saw gold prices skyrocket during the late 1970s, driven by high inflation, political instability (e.g., the Iranian Revolution), and the second oil crisis.
Gold reached an all-time high in 1980, marking the peak of Wave III. This wave completed the first major bullish cycle in the chart.
Wave IV (1980-1999):
After the peak in 1980, gold entered Wave IV, a long and complex correction that lasted until the late 1990s. This correction lasted nearly two decades and saw prices decline dramatically during the 1980s and 1990s as inflation subsided and global economic conditions stabilized.
Wave IV is characterized by long periods of consolidation, with gold fluctuating around lower levels.
Wave V (1999-2011):
Following the completion of Wave IV, gold entered Wave V, the final impulsive wave of this long-term cycle. This wave began around 1999 and saw gold prices move higher, culminating in a bullish run from 2008 to 2011.
The global financial crisis and the subsequent loose monetary policies (quantitative easing and low-interest rates) from central banks across the world provided the perfect backdrop for gold to rally.
Gold peaked at $1900 in 2011, marking the end of Wave V in this cycle, representing the peak of the primary impulsive move.
ABC Correction (2011-2020):
After the peak in 2011, gold entered a significant ABC correction. This correction can be broken down into three parts:
Wave A (2011-2015): The initial correction after the peak, where gold prices fell sharply, reaching lows of $1050 in 2015.
Wave B (2016-2018): A partial rally as investors regained some confidence, with prices climbing to around $1360 before the next decline.
Wave C (2018-2020): The final leg of the correction, which saw a further decline and then an explosive surge in early 2020 due to the global economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
-----------------------------------------
New Cycle (Post-2020):
After the massive surge in 2020, the chart suggests that gold has entered a new cycle—starting from the COVID-19 pandemic's impact. This marks the beginning of a new impulsive wave (labeled as Wave I of the new cycle).
Wave I (2020-2025): From the lows of March 2020 to the current high, gold prices have surged sharply, indicating the early stages of the new bullish cycle.
Wave II (2025-2027): A potential correction (Wave II) could be expected, retracing a portion of the rise from the pandemic-induced lows. This is typical after any strong Wave I move, as markets consolidate before further rallies. the target area would be $2100! could these reasons cause this correction:
I suggest that once Wave II is completed, gold could see further strong moves in Wave III, which could lead to higher levels of gold prices—potentially above $4000-$5000 or even higher, depending on broader market dynamics and economic conditions.
BTC.D the endbreakdown below 54.2% (initial low) with targets at 53.0% → 51.0% → 50.0%.
BTC Dominance projected to drop from 64.8% to 50.0% (Jun 2025)
⚠️ Risk Note: Long-term forecasts are speculative. Reassess fundamentals (e.g., ETF flows, regulatory shifts) quarterly to adjust positioning.
FOR Confirmation: Use RSI/volume divergence to validate reversals.
USOILWest Texas Intermediate Oil price continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around $70.90 per barrel during European hours on Tuesday. Crude Oil prices are rising as fresh United States sanctions on Iran’s Oil trade heighten concerns about tighter global supply.
WTI rises to near $71.00 following fresh US sanctions on Iran’s Oil
Gold Drops Hard – Will 2880 Be the Next Support Test? Yesterday was marked by significant volatility in Gold.
After reaching an intraday high of 2945, the price plummeted more than 500 pips, hitting a low of around 2890.
As I highlighted in my previous analysis, 2930 was a key pivot level, and breaking below it triggered an accelerated decline. This level has now turned into resistance and was already tested overnight.
Looking ahead, this correction may not be over yet and the price could drop below 2900 again and we could see a test of the 2880 horizontal support level.
I remain bearish on Gold as long as the 2930–2935 zone remains intact. 📉
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Alibaba - This Chart Is Pretty Beautiful!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is perfectly respecting structure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With a rally of about +80% within a couple of weeks, Alibaba is clearly showing signs of bulls completely taking over. This pressure was not unexpected though after we perfectly witnessed the major trendline breakout a couple of months ago and a retest of the confluence of support.
Levels to watch: $140, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Cardano Looks Ready For Its 2025 Bull-Market Bullish WaveDo you remember this chart? It is from August 2024.
The first wave or initial bullish breakout is now complete. ADAUSDT (Cardano) is officially in 2025 bull-market territory. Prepare for a new wave; prepare for massive growth.
The initial bullish breakout peaked very early in December last year. A strong bullish wave will always, invariably, lead to a correction. This correction is clearly present on this chart.
The present correction doesn't mean much for the market. This is just a period of rest while the players; traders and market participants, consolidate all previous gains. The market needs to adapt to the previous massive phase of growth.
Ok. We are already fully adapted. We feel fine.
Cryptocurrency market, let's continue now!
We are ready for more.
In a bullish market a correction will always end in a higher low. The higher the low of the higher low, the stronger the chart/pair is considered. For example, ADAUSDT launched the previous bullish wave from a baseline of $0.3000. The correction higher-low ended more or less around $0.6000. That's 100% higher compared to baseline price. This means that Cardano is super strong.
The first peak ended around $1.35 which is awesome. From a low of $0.2756 in August 2024 this adds up to some 375% total growth. This time around, there will be more.
You can find several targets on this chart. Below the previous ATH we have $2.00. This is good but not a big deal. Beyond the previous ATH we have $4.84. This is awesome/great. We also have $8.11 and even $10.5 as new 2025 peak potential. We have to wait and see how it all goes.
I am sharing this now because I think that right now we are witnessing the establishment of a short-term higher low. The first low in early February, and now the second low. This second —higher— low will launch the next bull-market bullish wave. This means that we are ready for growth, give or take a few days. But my money is on the now! We are going up now!
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
EURUSD Correcting – Another Fall Ahead?Today I want to analyze EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) for a 15-minute time frame and whether EURUSD is ready to fall or not.
EURUSD is moving in a Heavy Resistance zone($1.0537-$1.04500) . It also moves in the descending channel in the 15-minute time frame.
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that EURUSD has completed its 5 downward waves , and we should wait for corrective waves . I expect corrective waves to end either in a descending channel or eventually at a Resistance zone($1.0493-$1.0480) .
I expect EURUSD to attack the Support lines in the coming hours, and if the Support lines break , we should expect a decline to at least 100_SMA(4-hour) .
Note: If EURUSD breaks the Resistance line, we can expect more pumps.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 15-minute time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BTC Rejects the 1.61 and Flirts with 1.27 Break. In a previous post I flagged up the 1.61 inflection point in BTC.
After barcoding in this zone for a while we now have the early signs of rejection of the 1.61.
In this type of setup the 1.27 becomes pivotal. Either we hold this area (with a small spike under) as support and then we rally to the 2.20 fib or the failure of this level is the failure of the uptrend.
Looking mighty sketchy for a break now.
50K would be the capitulation target on a break.
S&P500 Bearish Strengthens Amid US-China Tech War EscalationMarket Overview: US-China Tech War Intensifies Amid Global Market Decline
European and Global Market Outlook – February 25, 2025
A wave of risk sentiment is sweeping across Asian markets as tensions between the United States and China escalate. The U.S. has intensified its technology war with China, targeting sectors including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and aerospace. This geopolitical pressure is contributing to a broad risk-off sentiment across global financial markets.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has confirmed its bearish momentum, despite cutting 2.3% since Last Friday as we mentioned , with the price stabilizing below the 6,010 level, reinforcing the likelihood of testing 5,979. A confirmed 4H or 1H candle close below 5,979 would validate a further bearish extension toward 5,920.
Bullish Reversal Scenario:
For the S&P 500 to shift towards a bullish structure, it must reclaim and break above the pivot zone (6,010 - 6,031). A successful breakout above this range could lead the index toward 6,068 and 6,102.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 6031 | 6068 | 6102
Pivot Zone: 6010
Support: 5979 | 5952 | 5920
Directional Bias: Bearish – The trend remains downward as long as the price continues to trade below 6,010. Breaking below 5,979 will open the door for further declines toward 5,920.
⚠️ Market Outlook:
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China could further fuel volatility in equity markets, with investors remaining cautious in response to ongoing economic and technological disputes.
How to find Sell Side Institution Trading ActivitySell Side Institutions are a major market participant. They are often called "Wall Street"
These giant banks and financial services companies do a variety of trading activities. They move price in an entirely different way than the Buy Side Institutions.
Sell Side Institutions have specific services they provide to the stock market including Market Making when there is a void of buyers. Sell Side make the market by selling short before market opens when the overall market has more retail sellers than buyers.
Sell Side also does all the buybacks for major corporations. Sell Side also are strictly short term trading trading a variety styles and strategies throughout the day. Sell Side has the best of the best floor traders who are the most experienced and savvy traders in the world.
Join this discussion to find you how you can learn to trade with the Sell Side and what indicators to use in your Tradingview software.
Solana at key support – high-risk opportunity for tradersSolana has fallen 20% since our last forecast, but is this the right time to buy? While the price is now near key support, Bitcoin’s recent breakdown suggests more downside could be ahead.
Bitcoin triggered a rectangle pattern targeting FWB:73K , though it may bottom around $77K–$80K. If that happens and Solana holds above $120, it could present a strong risk-reward setup for bullish traders, with a potential upside of 140%.
However, another scenario is also in play—a fake breakdown similar to what happened in January. If Bitcoin recovers quickly, Solana could rebound sharply within days.
With potential deregulation under Trump and shifting market sentiment, crypto could enter another bullish phase. Which scenario do you think will play out? Let me know in the comments!
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GOLD (XAUUSD): Consolidation & Complete Indecision⚠️Gold is currently trading in a horizontal range on a 4-hour chart.
There are two possible scenarios depending on which direction the breakout occurs.
📈In a bullish scenario, if the price breaks above the 2956 resistance and closes above it on a 4-hour chart, I anticipate a bullish movement towards the 2980 level.
📉In a bearish scenario, if the market breaks below the 2916 support and closes below it, a bearish movement towards the 2900 level is expected.
As always, the breakout is the best confirmation, so it is recommended to wait patiently for that.
BTC Bitcoin - Upside Likely THIS WEEK (Thanks Retail Liquidity)Here's a challenge for you:
How many places of built-up liquidity can you spot on this chart that indicated where price is heading to...?
Post your chart below.
Admittedly this isn't the easiest environment to trade in, but still the clues are there.
Plus: DXY Dollar is weak for now, so XXXUSD seem more likely to be Bullish.
Now we stalk it and wait to see the flip to the Upside (if it happens). The invalidation point is the clear last Wick low.
There could be more opportunities later to scale in.
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Are you seeing price action here the same as I am?
If not, comment below and tell me if I'm missing something...