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Gold continues to look strong amid ongoing correctionsGold continues to look strong amid ongoing corrections in U.S. interest rate expectations. The falling U.S. dollar is also supporting gold prices, as the greenback remains under pressure due to political uncertainty, budget concerns, and rising trade risks. From a technical perspective, gold is showing signs of consolidation after a strong bullish run. The price is expected to test support near $2,330 (assuming "3330" was a typo), which could serve as a key level before any further upward momentum resumes. If support at 3330 holds, gold may resume its uptrend, especially if macroeconomic headwinds for the dollar persist. You may find more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
2
Trading Signal for (XAU/USD) sell below $3,359 (21 SMA-7/8 MurraEarly in the European session, gold is trading around 3,341, below the 7/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA and the 200 EMA, with a bullish bias. We can see that gold reached the 7/8 Murray level on the H4 chart. This has become strong resistance, so we believe a technical correction could occur below this level in the coming hours. On Monday, we observed gold reaching a low of 3,238, where it found a technical rebound,, as this coincided with the bottom of the downtrend channel. Gold has a bullish bias, having reached oversold levels since June 26. It is likely that after a technical correction, it could resume its bullish cycle and reach the 8/8 Murray level at 3,437. If gold falls below 3,359 in the coming hours, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around 3,321. This area will be seen as an opportunity to resume buying, as a bullish trend is emerging. The RSI indicator is showing a positive signal, so we could take advantage of a technical rebound around 3,320 or 3,305. Both levels could provide gold with good support and a buying opportunity.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
4
Is the Trend Intact? Key Signal Emerging on GER40 4H ChartHey Guys, We could see a pullback on the GER40 index from the 24,060 level. If that happens, the 23,824 – 23,675 zone could present a potential buying opportunity. The primary trend still points upward, and bullish momentum remains intact. Also worth noting—the rise in volume is quite striking, which supports my target level of 24,500. I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses. I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by TraderTilki
2
AAVE Breakdown Could Trigger Major DropYello Paradisers — did you spot the bearish setup forming on AAVEUSDT? If not, you might already be a step behind, but there’s still a high-risk-reward opportunity on the table — if you approach it with discipline. 💎Currently, AAVEUSDT is looking increasingly bearish. The asset has confirmed a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), broken down from a rising wedge pattern, and is showing clear bearish divergence on the chart. These combined signals suggest that the probability of further downside is increasing. 💎From here, there are two main scenarios we’re monitoring. First, AAVE could attempt a pullback to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) above, which would offer a clean short-entry zone with strong risk-reward potential. Alternatively, price could reject directly from the nearby Bearish Order Block (OB), offering another chance for well-structured entries. Both setups depend on confirmation and timing, so patience is key. 💎However, if AAVE breaks and closes decisively above the current resistance zone, the bearish thesis becomes invalid. In that case, the best move is to wait on the sidelines and allow new, higher-quality price action to form before re-engaging. 💎This market demands patience and discipline. You don’t need to catch every move — just the right ones. Stay sharp, stay focused, and let the market come to you. Strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler. MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Short
by MyCryptoParadise
4
Overfitting Will Break Your Strategy — Here’s Why█ Why Your Backtest Lies: A Quant’s Warning to Retail Traders As a quant coder, I’ve seen it time and again: strategies that look flawless in backtests but fall apart in live markets. Why? One word: overfitting. Compare the signals in the images below. They’re from the same system, but one is overfitted, showing how misleading results can look when tuned too perfectly to the past. ⚪ Overfitting is what happens when you push a strategy to perform too well on historical data. You tweak it, optimize it, and tune every rule until it fits the past perfectly, including every random wiggle and fluke. To retail traders, the result looks like genius. But to a quant, it’s a red flag . █  Trading strategy developers have long known that “curve-fitting” a strategy to historical data (overfitting) creates an illusion of success that rarely holds up in live markets. Over-optimizing parameters to perfectly fit past price patterns may produce stellar backtest results, but it typically does not translate into real profits going forward. In fact, extensive research and industry experience show that strategies tuned to past noise almost inevitably disappoint out-of-sample. The bottom line: No one succeeds in markets by relying on a strategy that merely memorized the past — such “perfect” backtests are fool’s gold, not a future edge. █  The Illusion of a Perfect Backtest Overfitted strategies produce high Sharpe ratios, beautiful equity curves, and stellar win rates — in backtests. But they almost never hold up in the real world. Because what you’ve really done is this: You built a system that memorized the past, instead of learning anything meaningful about how markets work. Live market data is messy, evolving, and unpredictable. An overfit system, tuned to every quirk of history, simply can’t adapt. █  A Warning About Optimization Tools There are many tools out there today — no-code platforms, signal builders, optimization dashboards — designed to help retail traders fine-tune and "optimize" their strategies. ⚪ But here’s the truth: I can't stress this enough — do not rely on these tools to build or validate your strategy. They make it easy to overfit. They encourage curve-fitting. They give false hope and lead to false expectations about how markets actually work. ⚪ The evidence is overwhelming: Decades of academic research and real-world results confirm that over-optimized strategies fail in live trading. What looks good in backtests is often just noise, not edge. This isn’t something I’ve made up or a personal theory. It’s a well-documented, widely accepted fact in quantitative finance, supported by decades of peer-reviewed research and real-world results. The evidence is overwhelming. It’s not a controversial claim — it’s one of the most agreed-upon truths in the field. █  Why Overfitting Fails Let me explain it like I do to newer coders: Random patterns don’t repeat: The patterns your strategy "learned" were noise. They won't show up again. Overfitting kills the signal: Markets have a low signal-to-noise ratio. Fitting the noise means you've buried the signal. Markets change: That strategy optimized for low-volatility or bull markets? It breaks in new regimes. You tested too many ideas: Try enough combinations, and something will look good by accident. That doesn’t make it predictive. █  The Research Backs It Up Quantopian’s 888-strategy study: Sharpe ratios from backtests had almost zero predictive power for live returns. The more a quant optimized a strategy, the worse it performed live. Bailey & López de Prado’s work: After testing enough variations, you’re guaranteed to find something that performs well by chance, even if it has no edge. █  My Advice to Retail Traders If your strategy only looks great after a dozen tweaks… It’s probably overfit. If you don’t validate on out-of-sample data… you’re fooling yourself. If your equity curve is “too good” to be true… it probably is. Real strategies don’t look perfect — they look robust. They perform decently across timeframes, markets, and conditions. They don’t rely on lucky parameter combos or obscure filters. █  What to Do Instead Use out-of-sample and walk-forward testing Stick to simpler logic with fewer parameters Ground your system in market rationale, not just stats Risk management over performance maximization Expect drawdowns and variability Treat backtest performance as a rough guide, not a promise Overfitting is one of the biggest traps in strategy development. If you want your trading strategy to survive live markets, stop optimizing for the past. Start building for uncertainty. Because the market doesn’t care how well your model memorized history. It cares how well it adapts to reality. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
OANDA:NAS100USDEducation
by Zeiierman
10
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-07-01 19:30 UTCA bullish trade opportunity was identified after price action formed a Piercing Line candlestick pattern, signaling a potential reversal from recent lows. 🔹 Technical Overview: Entry Price: 105,869.86 USDT Take Profit (TP): 106,939.86 USDT Stop Loss (SL): 104,669.86 USDT 200 EMA: 106,320.49 USDT (Price is trading below — potential dip-buy opportunity) Pattern Detected: Piercing Line (bullish reversal) 🔹 Volume Context: Recent candles showed moderate volume with signs of buyer interest increasing. OBV trend has turned slightly positive, supporting a short-term bullish case. 🔹 Order Flow: Price action is showing signs of recovery from a local support zone. Some imbalance in the order book tilted toward buyers, with supportive bid liquidity observed. This setup combines trend deviation, bullish price action, and support reaction, creating a favorable risk-to-reward scenario. Trade is now active and being monitored toward the defined TP level, with strict stop-loss protection in place.
Long
by CryptoSignalsChannel
3
BTC - Testing Trendline Here is an update to our previous post: Zoom into the lowertime frame (1H) here is a zoomed in look at what is going on. Right now BTC just tested the trendline we pointed out in the last post. As you can see we have many touchpoints of support on this trendline (green arrows). Very important to monitor BTC's price action around this trendline. If price is to lose this level then we would want to watch our fib target of $103k. If price can continue to hold it as support then a move back to test the red trendline is likely.
by VIAQUANT
1
TUT At Edge ! Breakdown Loading...TUTUSDT | 4H Technical Outlook The price action on TUTUSDT is currently shaping up into a classic rising wedge formation on the 4-hour timeframe, a pattern that historically carries a bearish bias, especially after an extended upside move like the one we’ve seen recently. We’ve observed multiple rejections from the upper trendline near the 0.065–0.066 region, suggesting that bullish momentum is starting to fade. Despite the higher highs and higher lows, the upper boundary of the wedge is flattening, a typical sign of buyer exhaustion. Sellers are slowly stepping in, and the imbalance is beginning to tilt. There’s a possibility of one last fakeout move, a minor sweep of the highs around 0.0655–0.0660 — designed to trap breakout traders. If that move is followed by a strong rejection and a close back inside the wedge, it would increase the probability of a breakdown scenario playing out. The key level to watch is 0.0590 the lower boundary of the wedge. A decisive breakdown below this level, especially with volume confirmation, would likely trigger a sharper correction. Downside targets if breakdown confirms First target: 0.0522 (previous minor demand zone) Second target: 0.0480 (structural support) Extended targets: 0.0440 and 0.0400 (swing supports from the previous rally base) However, if bulls manage to push price above the 0.0660 zone and hold it with strength, this rising wedge setup will be invalidated and may turn into a continuation move to the upside. Setup is leaning bearish. Rising wedge + signs of exhaustion + trapped longs potential. Waiting for confirmation of the breakdown before entering. No need to front-run. Let the market confirm its direction. Stay alert, manage risk tightly, and avoid chasing the first fakeout.
Short
by wolfchemist
1
GBP/JPY) back bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of GBP/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe, signaling a potential rally from a key support area. Here’s a breakdown of this analysis: --- Technical Breakdown 1. Key Support Zone (Yellow Box): Price has pulled back to a strong support level around 196.50–197.00. This level previously acted as resistance and now flipped to support (classic support-resistance flip), marked by the green arrow. 2. EMA 200 as Dynamic Support: The 200 EMA (~196.567) is just below the support zone, reinforcing the likelihood of a bullish bounce from this area. 3. Bullish Price Projection: The chart suggests a bounce off this support zone with a projected move toward the target point at 200.132, indicating a +1.71% upside. 4. RSI Indicator (14): RSI is at 43.47, approaching the oversold region but curving upward — supporting a potential reversal to the upside. --- Forecasted Move Expected Move: Bullish reversal from support, targeting 200.132. The chart outlines a potential entry at current levels, with a bounce confirmed by price respecting the yellow support zone. Mr SMC Trading point --- Trading Idea Summary Bias: Bullish Entry Zone: Around 196.50–197.00 Stop-Loss: Below support zone (~196.00 or lower) Take-Profit: 200.132 Confirmation: Bullish candlestick pattern or RSI crossover plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
(WTI Crude Oil) on the 30-minute timeframe:(WTI Crude Oil) on the 30-minute timeframe: You have a clear triangle breakout happening. The chart shows two bullish target positions marked with blue arrows. Based on your chart: Current Price Zone: Around 66.20 - 66.25 Target Levels: ✅ First Target: 67.00 ✅ Second Target: 68.00 - 68.10 --- Summary Trading Idea: Breakout above resistance trendline confirmed. First resistance and partial target at 67.00 Final target near 68.00 - 68.10, where the next significant resistance lies. Let me know if you want stop-loss suggestions or a detailed entry strategy.
TVC:USOILLong
by RSI_Trading_point
5
#BCHBTC #1W (Binance) Big falling wedge breakoutCRYPTOCAP:BCH just regained 50MA weekly support in sats, performing better than CRYPTOCAP:BTC Seems likely to continue bullish towards 200MA resistance, probably after a pull-back. ⚡️⚡️ #BCH/BTC ⚡️⚡️ Exchanges: Binance Signal Type: Regular (Long) Amount: 7.0% Current Price: 0.004885 Entry Targets: 1) 0.004657 Take-Profit Targets: 1) 0.006329 Stop Targets: 1) 0.003987 Published By: @Zblaba CRYPTOCAP:BCH BINANCE:BCHBTC #BitcoinCash #PoW bitcoincash.org Risk/Reward= 1:2.5 Expected Profit= +35.9% Possible Loss= -14.4% Estimated Gaintime= 4-7 months
Long
by TradingOn
1