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Palantir

PLTR volatility ahead! more volatility ahead as market digests decreased Fed funds rate cuts in 2025. buy target at 90$ AFTER we fill the gap on 15min chart near 71.2-71.5 level imo.. looking to trade this setup via 80$ strike call option contracts for 1/10/25 & 1/17/25 expiration dates after 90$ is reached, still anticipating additional volatility back down to 65-68$ range one final time before Inauguration Day. After that, I think this turns strongly bullish once again and runs above 100$
NASDAQ:PLTR
by DaveTradesLive
2
Strategy 2025. Introducing Palantir, BTC Killer Of The Year 2024It's gone 3 months or so since Palantir stock has joined on Friday, September 20 Stock Top Club, also known as S&P 500 stock index SP:SPX . Palantir was one of the strongest contenders for inclusion in the broad market S&P500 Index. This inclusion, as well as Dell (DELL), came after tech companies Super Micro (SMCI) and Crowdstrike (CRWD) also joined the index earlier in this year 2024. Since that, Palantir stock became the best (i.e. #1) S&P500 index performer this year, with current +375% YTD return in 2024, being highlighted at 80.55 USD per share - the new all the history peak reached last Friday, December, 19 at regular session close. What is most important also, even recent Federal Reserve (The US Central Bank) hawkish projections on monetary policy in 2025 were not able to stop the only game in the city, or even make a pause on Palantir leadership. Since Palantir stock is rallying 7th month in a row, the stalkers remain decently far away, swallowing the galactic dust of Palantir shares. Judge for yourself. One of the nearest pursuer, Nvidia Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA (# 4 out of all S&P500 index performers in 2024) is nearly to finish the year of 2024 with +170% return, i.e. lagging against Palantir behind twice. The quite similar things happen with the most popular and heavy c-coin, also known as Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD that is currently +130% YTD return in 2024. What is most important also, Palantir stock outperforms both - S&P500 index, Nvidia Corp. and Bitcoin 7th straight month in a row. In human words that means, Palantir stock monthly returns (every single month from May to December 2024) were better against each of mentioned above assets. What is Behind this? On November 4, 2024 Palantir Technologies has announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2024. “We absolutely eviscerated this quarter, driven by unrelenting AI demand that won’t slow down. This is a U.S.-driven AI revolution that has taken full hold. The world will be divided between AI haves and have-nots. At Palantir, we plan to power the winners,” said Alexander C. Karp, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Palantir Technologies Inc. Q3 2024 Highlights • U.S. revenue grew 44% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter to $499 million • U.S. commercial revenue grew 54% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter to $179 million • U.S. government revenue grew 40% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter to $320 million • Revenue grew 30% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter to $726 million • Closed 104 deals over $1 million • Customer count grew 39% year-over-year and 6% quarter-over-quarter • GAAP net income of $144 million, representing a 20% margin • GAAP income from operations of $113 million, representing a 16% margin • Adjusted income from operations of $276 million, representing a 38% margin • Rule of 40 score of 68% • GAAP earnings per share (“EPS”) grew 100% year-over-year to $0.06 • Adjusted EPS grew 43% year-over-year to $0.10 • Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasury securities of $4.6 billion • Cash from operations of $420 million, representing a 58% margin and $995 million on a trailing twelve month basis • Adjusted free cash flow of $435 million, representing a 60% margin and over $1 billion on a trailing twelve month basis. Is the stock growth fundamentally deserved? Definitely, "Yes". Palantir stock Alpha What is Alpha? Alpha (a) is a term used in investing to describe an investment's ability to beat (outperform) the market, or its “edge.” Alpha is thus also often referred to as excess return or the abnormal rate of return in relation to a benchmark, or any other asset (even against simple sitting in a cash) when adjusted for risk. The main graph represents a comparison across Bitcoin and Palantir stocks. Since Palantir outperforms BTC twice over the past 12 months (watch lower "percent bar chart" subgraph), so why isn't to continue the play, by staying in a long with Palantir, and kill "the new oranges" respectively.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by Pandorra
Palantir: Target Zone Ahead!We now primarily assume that Palantir’s turquoise wave 3 has concluded at $82.72. For the ongoing turquoise wave 4, we have outlined a matching Target Zone (coordinates: $59.15 – $51.84), where the price should complete its interim correction and realize an upward trend reversal. However, as part of our alternative scenario, there is a 33% chance that the price will surpass the $82.72 mark directly to develop a higher high of the turquoise wave alt. 3.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by MarketIntel
PLTR: Shorts got absolutely obliterated It's been an unbelievable ride. Since beginning investing in Palantir back in 2020 I would have never imagined getting to this price point so soon, partly because theres no justification for it. However, I also didn't expect the AI sentiment would have gotten so strong so quickly. We can thank NASDAQ:NVDA for that I suspect. Based on Fibonacci extensions from Wave 1, we have gone far beyond typical extensions. The very last extension available on the tool is the 476% extension. In terms of price this means a target of $80-85. I don't know if we'll reach it, or if it will even be the top of Wave 3 I do know that this is still JUST Wave 3 of the 12345 impulse wave. Needless to say, we're just getting started. Wave 4 of an impulse move is typically the opposite of wave 2. In this case wave 2 was long and complex. Wave 4 should at least be less complex, and more uniform in its corrective move. Invest for the future!
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by HassiOnTheMoon
1
Short on PalantirPalantir's stock is facing several risks that could justify a short position. Its overvaluation is evident, trading at a P/E ratio of around 247 after a 150% surge in 2024, implying that future growth is heavily priced in; if the company doesn't meet these expectations, a sharp correction could occur​. Insider selling over the past 90 days has raised doubts about confidence in Palantir’s future, despite some sales being pre-planned. The stock's gains are tied closely to the AI boom, but there's skepticism over whether Palantir's contracts can maintain momentum, leading to concerns that AI hype may not translate into sustainable growth​. Analysts give the stock a "Reduce" rating with a consensus target suggesting a 33% downside, highlighting the potential risk of a pullback​. Furthermore, the stock appears technically overbought, increasing the likelihood of profit-taking and a subsequent decline​. Also, it is posible that Palantir is done with the fifth and the last Elliott Wave, and ABC corrective wave are incoming, hence entering a short position (Put) at price $42.00, first target price $32.0 at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement line, and the second target price 0.382 Fib retracement line $24.0. A less than perfect earning will help us to get there.
PShort
by AZ_Cap
Palantir looks like a classic Bubble in the MAKINGNow I don't like picking tops and bottoms, so that's why I have chosen Neutral for this. However, the market is driven by more greed and potentially soon Fear than usual. ANy market that climbs beyond 60 degree inclination, should indiate potential warnings of a major crash to come. That's because, it gets to the points where the NAV is far below the actual price. And what drove the market is perception of the people, which is fickle. So we can watch and see how it plays out - But no way would I buy with a market that looks like this.
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by Timonrosso
2
PALANTIR ON AN INCREDIBLE BULLRUN ! BUT... But be careful—this does not justify the price at all. Although Palantir has very solid numbers in its balance sheet, this does not justify a valuation at such an overvalued price could be very dangerous ! We must consider that markets in general are bullish, and the results of the latest report recently showed that it remains a very solid company in terms of sales. However, its earnings numbers are average—they meet analysts’ expectations, but by a very narrow margin. Historically, this has been the case in past reports as well. Now, let’s get back to the technical analysis of Palantir. After its report, it managed to break through that institutional zone that marked its peak 3 years ago (2021). After bouncing off the imbalance for a second time, Palantir showed a lot of strength and reached new highs. From here on, we just need to wait for a pullback soon to start analyzing a possible support level. Right now, Palantir is in no man’s land, which makes it a bit difficult to predict its next move. The only thing we can do here is to follow its movement candle by candle, staying alert to wicks and immediate zones where it might pull back. Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE!"
PLong
by RocketMike111
PALANTIR: Extremely overbought. High probability sell to $40.Palantir is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 79.771, MACD = 3.330, ADX = 33.075), even the 1W RSI is on extreme levels (80.789) and that alone would be a good enough reason to sell. The picture gets even clearer on the 1W timeframe where the price has almost reached the top of the 2 year Channel Up, having completed a +241.84% rise from the January 2nd 2024 bottom and almost +172.53% rise from the August 5th bottom. Those are the symmetrical rally levels from the December 27th 2022 and May 1st 2023 Lows respectively. The result on that HH rejection was a test of the 0.382 Fibonacci level. That is our target (TP = 40.00). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
PShort
by InvestingScope
Can a Crystal Ball Really Predict the Future of Tech?In an era where artificial intelligence promises to reshape the technological landscape, Palantir Technologies has emerged as a testament to the power of long-term vision meeting present opportunity. The company's remarkable third-quarter performance, marked by a 30% revenue surge to $725.5 million and doubled net income, isn't merely a financial triumph—it's a validation of two decades spent perfecting the art of data analytics while others were still grappling with its fundamentals. What sets this trajectory apart is Palantir's unique ability to bridge two seemingly disparate worlds. On one side, its deep-rooted expertise in government and defense contracts, evidenced by a 40% growth in U.S. government sales to $320 million, demonstrates unparalleled capability in handling sensitive, mission-critical data. On the other, its commercial division's explosive growth, particularly in the U.S. market with a 54% revenue increase, reveals an organization that has successfully translated complex government-grade technology into practical business solutions. The company's strategic positioning, however, tells a more intriguing story beyond the numbers. While competitors scramble to adapt to the AI revolution, Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) represents the culmination of years spent understanding the nuances of data integration and security. This foundation, combined with innovative approaches like their hands-on "boot camps" where clients work directly with Palantir engineers, suggests that perhaps the company named after Tolkien's all-seeing orbs has indeed developed a knack for anticipating the future of enterprise technology.
PLong
by signalmastermind
Palantir Bullish Long-Term PlayPalantir shares rose to a yearly high near $33 in the evening trading session on Friday, September 6, after announcement Palantir joins the S&P 500 index. Palantir was one of the strongest contenders for inclusion in the broad market S&P500 index. This inclusion, as well as Dell (DELL), comes after tech companies Super Micro (SMCI) and Crowdstrike (CRWD) also joined the index earlier this year. Technical 1-month graph indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders structure in development. Potentially it can bring Palantir stocks, up to $100 per share over the next several years.
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by Pandorra
$PLTR might go up to $57 after Q3 FY24 Earnings report? NYSE:PLTR Palantir soared over 14.2% after Q3 FY24 earnings report: • Net dollar retention 118% (+11pp Y/Y). • Customers +39% Y/Y to 629. • Revenue +30% Y/Y to 726M (22M beat). • Non-GAAP EPS $0.10 ($0.01 beat) . FY24 guidance: • Revenue +26% Y/Y to 2.807B (+61M). • Adjusted margin 38% (+3pp). It will probably break above the resistance of previous high today. But where will the price rise to? To answer this question, we make comparisons with previous gap up candles which has broken above an important resistance level. In Feb 05, it soared over 30% after Q3 FY23 earnings reports, and after that, it went up for another 25%. In Sep 09, NYSE:PLTR soars over 14% toward record highs as the stock is set to be added to the S&P 500. And after that, it has risen for another 30%. Therefore, it might go up to 57 if it break above the resistance of previous high today, according to similar historical price actions. what's your opinion?
PLong
by xugina78
Palantir will move after earnings so hold tight ! As long as Palantir remains within the upward channel, it’s still in play! There’s an imbalance guiding the price, preventing it from dropping. We’ve seen the price attempt to go up twice already, so as long as Palantir stays within the channel and respects the imbalance, I’m quite confident it will make a third attempt to break the high. On the other hand... We have the earnings report coming up Monday pre-market, so whatever happens at the open, we’ll know which direction the price will take based on the report’s results. Keep a close eye on this! Best regards.
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by RocketMike111
PLTR: Taking a fresh look. More bullish than before!PLTR chart has been bullish for a while and the recent price action looks very much like a wave 3 of some degree. This made me rethink my previous count that I was tracking as an expanding ending diagonal for wave 5 of c of various degrees of wave 5s to complete intermediate wave 1. But that started to look a bit unrealistic. Wave 5 was getting bigger than the 2x extension of waves 1 and 2. Taking a second look to terminate intermediate wave 1 at the March high. This gives us a very short and shallow intermediate wave 2 correction ending in May. This makes the rest of the price action pretty bullish, even though the minute degree wave 2 of Minor degree wave 1 came in very deep. Let's ignore that situation, as it was very quick correction, and price has moved very quickly and very far without any major dips since. And if this bullish count is correct, then price should not come down to orange line $33.13 until minute degree waves 3, 4 and 5 are complete. Price should hit a few all-time highs to around $60 area before we see a sizable dip. However, that dip should not violate the red line at $20.65. If all goes well, the huge wave 3 of 3 will start that should take the price to the moon. This count is wrong if price goes below $33.13 before the 5-wave minute degree sequence is complete. I will go back to my previous, now somewhat awkward looking count to end intermediate 1 brace for a much bigger wave 2.
PLong
by mukit1
2
Palantir ($PLTR) IT MIGHT FINALLY BE TIME FOR A PULLBACK! 5 RY:NYSE:PLTR IT MIGHT FINALLY BE TIME FOR A PULLBACK! Retail investors don't hate me for this. I'm a shareholder, too! DIP BUY INBOUND?! 5 REASONS WHY: 1⃣ We have DIVERGENCE on the Weekly Chart 2⃣ We have Volume Profile Gap Down 3⃣ It's a TRIM according to my Valuation Metric Tool (0/6 score) 4⃣ Top 5 gainer in AMEX:SPY 5⃣ Have a SIP and find out by watching. 👇 Stay tuned for more!🔔 Like ❤️ Follow 🤳 Share 🔂 Will Palantir finally have a pullback? What price would you like to load up on more shares? Not financial advice.
PLong
by RonnieV29
14
Is Palantir in a Danger Zone? We will see after the report... Palantir is about to announce its quarterly report. As we analyzed in the last report, the price reached its highest point after several years, but after reaching this liquidity zone, it had a pullback as we announced before. However, Palantir is showing strength in this area, and we ended on the last candle where it will attempt again to surpass this liquidity zone with strongly. Will it succeed? I believe Palantir has the volume to continue moving a bit higher, but at this point is entering an area where the upward momentum is slowing significantly. On one hand, we’re seeing a double-top forming, and the candle hasn’t fully formed yet. We need to wait and see if the next candle shows liquidity. If so, we should be cautious about the wick length, as that could signal trouble for Palantir. so with the earnings report approaching, there is a lot of uncertainty, which may make it difficult for the price to break this liquidity zone. We should stay alert this November 4th. Palantir has excellent fundamentals, but its recent reports have barely exceeded analysts' expectations. If this report misses even by a small margin, I think we could see a significant drop due to the stock being heavily inflated. Here are Palantir's latest results: Nov 02, 2023 2023 (Q3) Analysts = 0.06 / Reported = 0.07 (BEAT) Feb 05, 2024 2023 (Q4) 0.08 / 0.08 May 06, 2024 2024 (Q1) 0.08 / 0.08 Aug 05, 2024 2024 (Q2) 0.08 / 0.09 Nov 04, 2024 2024 (Q3) 0.09 / (Mon, Nov 4) Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE! Best regards!
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by RocketMike111
Palantir Validated a Liquidity Zone, Whats Next? If you saw my previous structural analysis, I had mentioned that Palantir was going to hit an institutional liquidity zone, and for the first time in several years, using common sense, the price was going to face rejection. And that’s exactly what happened... The price hit my point of interest and dropped for 3 days. However, the last candle with which we closed the week was green and had enough volume. Why is this? If we can see 2 candles before the close, we can detect a trap that created a long wick downward, preventing the price from falling further. That’s the detail we're seeing before the week’s close—the last candle was bullish. We also can’t ignore that Palantir is only about 2 weeks away from its earnings report. So, I don’t think the price will make a decisive move just yet, and even if it falls further, it would likely be around 38.50. However, the earnings strategy that traders are waiting for, where Palantir accumulates and begins to rise, is very close. So, we need to be very alert as we approach its earnings report on November 4th. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
P
by RocketMike111
Palantir at a Critical Turning Point – Big Moves on the HorizonAlright, here’s the deal with PLTR. I’ve been keeping a close eye on it, and right now, it feels like we’re standing at a fork in the trail—one direction leads to a nice payday, the other to a bit of backtracking. The next couple of moves will tell us which way we’re headed. We’re hovering around 42.75 right now, and if we can break above that with some force, 43.91 is my first target—good spot to lock in some profits. But here’s the thing: if we can clear 44, that’s where the real fun begins. That’s the confirmation we’re looking for, and from there, I think this could open up a much bigger move. On the other hand, if 41.65 doesn’t hold, things could get a bit rocky. I’ll be looking for price to drift down into the 41.28 - 41.00 range. Not ideal, but hey, markets don’t move in straight lines. That’s where I’ll watch for buyers to step back in and give us another shot at the upside. The key here is patience. If we get the breakout, I’m ready to ride the wave. If we pull back, no sweat—I’m not in the business of chasing trades. You gotta play this game cool, stick to the levels, and wait for the setup to come to you. No need to rush it. It’s kind of like hiking. Sometimes the first path up the hill looks tempting, but the trail turns steep, and you gotta fall back to find a better route. But when you do find that clean path—man, the view is worth the wait. That’s exactly what this trade feels like. If we clear 44, we’ve got some clear skies ahead, and I’ll be ready for the ride. But if not, I’m content to step back and wait for the next chance to make my move. Let’s see where this takes us—either way, it’s gonna be an interesting climb. Mindbloome trader
P
by Mindbloome-Trading
ANALIZING PALANTIR ITS JUST COMMON SENSE... BUT BE VERY CAREFULLLet’s welcome Palantir (PLTR) into the weekend analysis! As we can see in the chart, today I wanted to do general structure analysis not too specific, as we are practically touching the highest level again in nearly 4 years. Congratulations to all who bought at $12–16 per share and are still holding Palantir, but as I show in the chart, from point A to point B, it took almost 4 years to reach these levels again. But here’s my question: WHAT WOULD YOU DO IF YOU BOUGHT AROUND $40 IN 2021? I’d love to know, as this situation can greatly influence each person’s psychology when making a fundamental decision in trading. (LEAVE YOUR OPINION IN THE COMMENTS) I want you to know that I don’t just focus on price analysis. I also study company valuation. Based on a fundamental analysis of its balance sheet and recent moves by PLTR, I’ve concluded that Palantir is currently 171% above its intrinsic value. In my personal opinion, my decision leans more toward common sense… What do I mean? 1. Palantir is 171% overvalued. 2. Palantir is diluting its investors like crazy! In every quarterly report. Do you know what dilution is? Stock dilution can be harmful to shareholders because the value of each share is reduced, even though the investor holds the same number of shares. This is because the total value of the company doesn’t increase proportionally with the number of shares. Palantir is an excellent company, although it’s a bit complicated to understand what they do and how they make money. But in my personal opinion, a company that dilutes its investors is nothing but a red flag to me—and a big red flag—because I call this the silent killer for investors. At this point, PLTR is more on the hype side! If Palantir reports well in November, we could see the stock above $50 per share, BUT if Palantir reports anything that doesn’t meet investor expectations, any data that falls short… Buckle up! But how much could it fall? The truth is, I don’t know. But if we base it on technical analysis, I have an important inflection point (purple zone) where I expect the price to bounce after a sharp drop. BUT CAUTION! Only if Palantir doesn’t meet expectations. An inflection point in trading refers to a critical moment on a price chart where the trend or price direction is expected to change. It marks the transition from one phase of price movement to another, often signaling a turning point in market sentiment or momentum. Traders pay close attention to inflection points as they may indicate a radical trend shift. Traders use these points to adjust their strategies, such as entering or exiting positions, to capitalize on the expected change in price direction. BUT WHAT WILL REALLY HAPPEN? I don’t know, maybe this time it will be different—who knows? But the only thing I can tell you is that numbers don’t lie, and neither does price action. So, I hope the decision you make is the right one! Thank you for supporting this analysis. Sending you my best regards!
PShort
by RocketMike111
2
Palantir Technologies | PLTRPalantir stock is set to pop in the next year as the tech firm erects an artificial intelligence "fortress" that will help it become one of the biggest players in the AI race in the coming decade, Wedbush Securities analysts wrote on Friday. According to Wedbush's Dan Ives, Palantir is headed to $25 a share in the next 12 months. That represents a surge of 54% from Thursday's closing price of $16.15. Shares were up 5.7% at $17.07 early Friday. The data software firm, which has been funded in part by the CIA's In-Q-Tel venture capital arm, is the "Messi" of AI, Ives said, referring to Argentine soccer superstar Lionel Messi. "As we begin the 4th Industrial Revolution, Palantir is engaging in the widespread trend of various industries leveraging recent generative AI innovations to streamline operations and improve expense profiles," the Wedbush analysts wrote. Given Palantir's wide roster of partners in both the public and private spheres, Wedbush sees the next six to 12 months as a period of significant expansion for the company as it serves the growing demand for enterprise-scale large language AI models. "This is early innings on a sum-of-the-parts AI story just on the cusp on monetizing this massive green field AI opportunity," it predicted. Palantir CEO Alex Karp has been a vocal proponent of the rapid development of AI even in the face of risks associated with the technology. In an op-ed for the New York Times this week, he wrote that AI will shape political developments in this century in the same way that nuclear weapons drove geopolitics in the last century. He cautioned that there are risks, but they should not deter the continued advancement of AI. "If these technologies are to exist alongside us over the long term, it will also be essential to rapidly construct systems that allow more seamless collaboration between human operators and their algorithmic counterparts, to ensure that the machine remains subordinate to its creator," he wrote. "We must not, however, shy away from building sharp tools for fear they may be turned against us." Palantir is one of the most popular stocks, and for many, it's been a wild ride. Since the direct listing, investors have seen shares skyrocket to the high FWB:30S , crash to $5.84, and ride the AI boom back to the high teens. I invested in PLTR at the direct listing and purchased shares on the way up and as they declined in price. I was vocal about my dissatisfaction with how Alex Karp handled what has now become the infamous Q2 2022 conference call and became bullish again as PLTR turned things around. 2023 has been a strong year for PLTR as shares have increased by 182.47% YTD. Some investors have done well, while others got back to even or chipped away at the losses. Since May 5, shares have appreciated by 143.59%, appreciating from $7.41 to $18.05. Q2 2023 earnings are around the corner as PLTR is set to report post-market on August 7. Shares can continue higher into earnings and continue throughout 2023 if PLTR delivers growth across its revenue, earnings, customers, and contracts while maintaining its Q2 free cash flow (FCF) margins. In this article, I will discuss what I am looking for in the Q2 2023 earnings report and provide some insights as to what I think shares of PLTR could be worth in the future. In 2021, PLTR made 45 official announcements through its website newsroom, and in 2022, PLTR had 44 announcements. PLTR has been busy in 2023; through July 18, they have made 26 official announcements. This doesn't include any of the blog posts PLTR has written discussing the work their conducting. I continuously research these aspects as they provide insight into what will be discussed on the earnings call and in the 10-Q. In Q2 2023, PLTR posted 14 press releases and another four in July. For PLTR to continue its growth trajectory, it needs more adaptation of its products in the government space as well as the private sector. I expect PLTR to deliver strong growth numbers as there have been significant partnerships announced since April 1. On the government side, Palantir announced two deals with government entities in Ukraine, including the Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine and the Ministry of Digital Transformation of Ukraine. PLTR announced that Ukraine would utilize its technology to support the defense and reconstruction of the country and empower Ukraine investigators with critical data processing tools regarding 78,000 registered war crimes. US Special Operations Command entered a multi-year contract worth up to $463 million to expand its enterprise capabilities. On the commercial side, PLTR expanded its cloud partnership with Microsoft (MSFT), entered into an agreement to build an integrated management flow system on top of Foundry for CA Modas S.A, and expanded its partnership with Jacobs Solutions (J). These partnerships are critical because it will allow PLTR to expand throughout several sectors through some of the largest counterparts. I expect the Jacobs and Microsoft partnerships to be extremely beneficial in the coming years as more companies look to create value by enabling AI and moving toward data-driven decisions. PLTR guided for revenue to come in at $528-$532 million in Q2 and revenue of $2.185-$2.235 billion for the full year. In Q1, PLTR delivered $525.2 million in revenue which is 24.04% of the low-end estimates and 23.5% of the high-end estimates for 2023. For PLTR to meet its 2023 full-year revenue guidance, it would need to generate an average of $553.27 million in Q2–Q4 to meet the low-end projection and an average of $569.94 to meet the high-end estimates. I expect PLTR to deliver at least $550 million in revenue for Q2 and discuss how they will increase incremental revenue throughout the year as more contracts continue to be initiated on an ongoing basis. If we see anywhere from $550-$575 million in revenue for Q2, it would be a strong indication that the high-end estimates will be met or exceeded when they report their 2023 fiscal year numbers. If PLTR records $550 million in Q2, $575 million in Q3, and $601 million in Q4, PLTR will generate $2.25 billion in annual revenue for 2023. This would be an average QoQ revenue increase of 4.6% over the next three quarters. I think it will be a strong signal coming off the AIP conference if PLTR is on track to beat the high-end estimates, as that would mean PLTR will be moving into the $600 million quarterly revenue bracket sometime in 2023 and inching their way closer to generating over $1 billion in revenue on a quarterly basis. PLTR has now strung together two consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability and is projecting its adjusted income from operations coming in at $118-$122 million in 2023 and between $506-$556 million for their fiscal year. In Q1 2023, PLTR generated $125.11 million in adjusted income from operations, which is 24.73% of the low-end projection and 22.50% of the high-end estimate. This would mean that PLTR would need to increase its adjusted income throughout the year to meet its annualized projections. I dislike adjusted numbers and prefer free cash flow (FCF) as it's harder to distort than other profitability measures. In Q1, PLTR generated $188.9 million in adjusted FCF, which is a 36% margin. PLTR's true FCF number was $182.6 million, as they generated $187.4 million in cash from operations and allocated $4.8 million toward CapEx. This places PLTR's FCF margin at 34.77%, which is the largest margin they have operated at since becoming a publicly traded company. I have previously indicated that I believe PLTR can replicate similar growth to Salesforce (CRM). CRM currently has a market cap of $223.51 billion and, in the TTM, has generated $32.19 billion of revenue and $7.06 billion in FCF. Mr. Market is valuing CRM at a 6.94x multiple on sales, and 31.64x FCF. CRM has seen explosive growth over the last decade as its grown its revenue by 690.67% and its FCF by 1,125.54%. Including the TTM, CRM has operated at a 20.57% FCF margin over the previous five years.If PLTR finishes on the high-end of their revenue estimates for 2023 they would deliver $2.25 billion in revenue. PLTR's previous projections placed their 2025 revenue at $4 billion or more and I don't recall seeing updated estimates. If PLTR comes in on the high end of the 2023 projections and generates $2.25 billion, its YoY revenue growth would have decelerated from 41.11% in 2021 to 23.61% in 2022 and 18.12% in 2023. Hypothetically, if PLTR can grow its revenue at a 15% YoY basis over the next decade from 2024–2033, it would generate $2.98 billion in revenue for 2025 and $9.12 billion in 2033. At a 33% FCF margin in 2033, PLTR would generate $3 billion in FCF. At a 32x multiple on FCF, PLTR would be valued at $96.17 billion. If PLTR can maintain an 18% YoY revenue growth rate and maintain a 33% FCF margin, PLTR will generate $11.78 billion in revenue and $3.89 billion in FCF in 2033. At a 32x FCF multiple, PLTR would be valued at $124.42 billion. If PLTR was to grow at a quicker pace of 21% YoY on average, they would generate $15.15 billion in revenue and $5 billion in FCF in 2033. Assigning a 32x multiple on their FCF would place PLTR at a $159.93 billion valuation. Based on these assumptions, PLTR could grow between 151.49%-318.23% over the next decade, which would be an annualized return of 15.15%-31.82%. These are just assumptions regarding what could occur and why I feel PLTR could be a good long-term investment. For those who think a 32x multiple on FCF is a crazy valuation, I am going to place a table below. Based on the current market caps, big tech has multiples from 31.29x to 221.31x. Putting the outliers aside, it's not uncommon to see companies trade in the 40x range. Even companies such as the Coca-Cola Company (KO) trade at a 29.90x multiple and PepsiCo (PEP) trade at a 45.41x multiple on FCF.
PLong
by moonypto
11
PALANTIR Sell signal at the top of the 15-month Channel Up.Palantir (PLTR) gave us a solid buy signal 3 months ago (June 24, see chart below) as it respected the recurring bottom sequences within the 15-month Channel Up: Right now the price has been consolidating after a direct hit at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. The 1D RSI got overbought and started pulling-back on a standard Bearish Divergence, a formation which three time within this pattern turned-out to be a solid sell signal. The dashed Channel Up gives us a short-term Target on its bottom, which is where the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is trading at and is the short-term Support. That is our Target currently (Target 1 = 34.50). If and only if, we close a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will open a new sell, as it will be a bearish break-out signal. In that case, we will target a potential near contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the long-term Support and where the remarkable buy entries of August 05 and January 31 were provided (Target 2 = 29.50). Keep in mind that the most optimal buy entry for the long-term (since May 2023) has been given by the 1D RSI and more specifically when it hits its Support Zone. We will continue to place buy long-term buys accordingly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
PShort
by TradingShot
7