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Palladium

Palladium demand destructionThanks for viewing, Some view platinum and palladium not as investment petals for various reasons, others disagree. I prefer (in rank) 1. gold (bullish), 2, silver (neutral), platinum (bearish). Platinum makes the list because I can purchase it in small increments - while palladium was only available in a minimum of 1oz coins (which had high premiums - as coins in general do). That said, I expect platinum to also show future weakness - potentially going sub $350ish - which is okay as it is a strategic metal that is relevant to defence applications among other things. The reasons I expect weakness in demand for Platinum (currently oversupplied) are the same as for Palladium (under-supply); Palladium has had a huge run since 2008 - peaking at 16.5x and now at 10.5x over that time period. The major driver was a supply demand mis-match caused from strong demand from auto-catalysts for petrol vehicles. All that has changed dramatically in a short period. Demand has been destroyed for new motor vehicles. Light vehicle sales were down 34.6% in March www.marklines.com and that drop will be over-shadowed by the April drop. Hopefully, these drops are short-term and will bounce back shortly - like vehicle demand in China did - although estimates vary on the time-frame. I suspect we will see near-term demand reduced from 2019 levels for all of 2020. Medium and long term factors are both negative for those expecting internal combustion light vehicles production levels to bounce bank to new highs. The most major impact will come from an unfolding de-leveraging. For those that blame the health crisis for 100% of the economic woes, please cast your eye a few months back when we had; - an inverted yield curve, - downgrades of global and regional GDP growth announced by the IMF, World Bank, BOJ, ECB, Fed etc etc, - Cautions on the level of sovereign, corporate, and household debt levels, - Interest rates in the US repo market spiking to over 11%, - The Fed started QE4, or what they called "definitely not QE4", - Large investment banks were announcing they were advising their clients to sell US equities because they saw limited upside remaining, - The US continued on its longest and weakest economic expansion in history. My general view is that this health crisis with its associated economic contraction brought forward (and exacerbated) what was already just around the corner - a recession. Any deleveraging event was always going to have to be more significant than 2008-9 simply because debt levels are so much greater now - while incomes have stayed flat. So this will necessarily impact on discretionary consumer demand (and availability of consumer credit) for some time. Price targets; 1300 should provide some support, stronger support at the $1140, and $1100 levels. 1:1 extension of the recent steep drop at $1060. This level may cause a strong bounce in 6 - 12 months (depending on industrial demand pick-up) - but after that who knows. The trajectory now seems to be away from diesel vehicles, especially since the VW scandal (which hasn't yet fully unfolded to reveal just how wide-spread the massaging of emissions results among the industry as a whole). Medium to long-term, there is every possibility that Palladium's new home will be below $1100. Protect those funds everyone
TVC:PALLADIUMShort
by flyinkiwi10
1
PALLADIUM 1D DESCENDING TRIANGLEDescending Triangles are repeatable trading chart patterns. Descending chart patterns will have a directional bias depending on the previous incoming trend. Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern. Whatever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart). Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place. Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement. When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern. Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close. 1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line). a - Breakout candle must be 100% of the average volume for a full position size. b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+) 2 - Enter two trades. 3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR. 4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR. 5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price. 6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven. 7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price. *8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade *9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open. a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size. b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open. c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade. d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
OANDA:XPDUSDShort
by Tradingstrategyguides
Gold May Be Finding Support!Gold has experienced a lot of volatility recently and mainly due to the current health pandemic but price appears to be gaining some order now. Since May 2019, price has risen 37% but hasn’t formed the neatest of trends. There have been periods of pullbacks such as the period from the 4th September 2019 to the 6th January 2020. The sharp decline, which was a result of the pandemic, began on the 9th March 2020 and fell by 14% from the high at $1,703. Price quickly found bullish momentum and has since broken and closed above the previous high and is currently testing it as support. If the support level holds then the buyers should gain more momentum and push price even higher. We now have to wait and see how price reacts going forward and get ready to take long positions at the right time. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Sublime_Trading
Palladium (XPDUSD): The end of its parabolic rise.Palladium has been rising non-stop for 4 years (since January 2016), a rise that after 2019 turned parabolic. This parabola has broken down this March as the pull back exceeded the 0.382 Fibonacci level that has been holding in the previous two cyclical pull backs (August 2018 and May 2019). The 1W chart is on a neutral state (RSI = 53.141, MACD = 105.160, ADX = 39.528) as it has recovered 50% of the March sell-off, however the danger is far from over. Until the 2,900 High breaks, Palladium (XPDUSD) will most likely remain under selling pressure and the Higher Low trend line (red line) which has been supporting the 4 year uptrend may be tested. This test involves the 1W MA200 (orange line) both of which (HL trend line and MA200) can 'meet' on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (of the whole 4 year move). This (0.618 Fib) is at 1,390. If that breaks to then the next Support and potential sell target will be on the 0.786 Fib at 980 where Palladium can again start looking like a strong investment. Keep in mind that we have been strong Palladium supporters for quite some time: ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
FX_IDC:XPDUSDShort
by InvestingScope
3
XPDUSD | More DownsidePlease support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful. Price was rejected by Resistance Node (50 MA, Ichi Cloud and the Resistance Trendline of the Descending Channel). It's more likely to continue the decline and retest the 200 MA Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable. Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts. The information given is not a Financial Advice.
OANDA:XPDUSDShort
by Anpu
4
Palladium Rests Before It Makes Its Next MovePalladium trended really well from May 2019 to February 2020 and was set to reach the $3,000 round number but the current pandemic had other plans for the economy. We soon saw a sharp decline in price, falling 47% in under 3 weeks, wiping out 6 months of gains in a fraction of the time. We are now seeing a different kind of behaviour in this commodity and price has become unpredictable. This may be due to the fact that price may be entering consolidation following the strong bullish trend. During the trend, price used the 50sma as support to help it gain momentum to the upside, but now the 50sma has turned to resistance which may help to force price down. If we continue to see weakness then the next area of support is the $2,000 round number followed by the 200sma. Because we are seeing uncertainty in Palladium, the safest option is to wait for a break and close above the current all-time high at $2,875 followed by the $3,000 round number. While this commodity sets up for its next trend, which may take a while, we are focusing our attention on forex pairs that are trending and we are also potentially looking for shorting opportunities in the stock market. We will be looking at some shorting opportunities in our free Facebook group and we also cover this in our 4-Part series from the link below. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUM
by Sublime_Trading
4
Platinum Breakout & Palladium Blow-off TopPlatinum at current levels presents tremendous value. The precious metals take turns outperforming and underperforming. In the late 90s palladium went into a bubble while gold, silver, and platinum bottomed out. Then throughout the 00's palladium moved sideways while platinum, silver, and gold all outperformed. I believe we are nearing a similar setup where US stocks will enter a blow off top and palladium will follow. Following this blow-off top platinum and silver will begin to drastically outperform. Additionally, the more expensive palladium gets, the more likely industry will find ways to substitute towards platinum. This is especially the case since most of palladium demand comes from China. Be keeping an eye on these metals, along with gold and silver.
TVC:PLATINUM
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
Gold Attempting A Recovery!Since Gold suffered a sudden decline from the 9th March 2020 high, price didn’t look like slowing down until it approached the 200 simple moving average. Price hesitated at this support level at first but the sellers forced price to move below the 200sma. Price not only had the 200sma as resistance at that point but also the $1,500 round number. With such a strong cluster of resistance above price, it appeared to be facing a huge obstacle if it was going to be able to regain some bullish momentum. The start of this week is proving to be on the side of Gold so far but with the current market conditions, things can be subject to change. Price has not only moved above the 200sma but it is also trading above the $1,500 round number. We also have another hurdle not too far above in the form of last year’s high which stands at $1,557. This level has been broken before and with enough bullish momentum, it can be broken again. Going forward we want price to make a gradual recovery from the recent declines and a break and close above the current high at $1,703 will confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Sublime_Trading
Gold Takes A Dive!Gold was on a strong move to the upside since finding support in August 2018 and rose by 46%. All trends come to an end at some point but Gold has recently come to a sharp halt. Despite the recent decline, due to the recent health epidemics that are affecting the global markets, the trend may not be over just yet. Price created a high at $1,703 on March 9th 2020 but has since declined by over 12%. At first glance, things don’t appear to be going well for Gold but price has now found comfort at a support level which may stop further declines. There are two levels of support holding price up. The first one is the 200 simple moving. Price did trade below the 200sma but has now moved back above it. This gives us an idea that this area may hold strong going forward. The second one is the $1,500 round number which is a psychological area of support which price struggled to break through in 2019. It appears to be causing a problem for the sellers now and helping to assist the buyers in keeping price up. Right now the market is rattled by recent global events but once the dust settles and if Gold remains above support then it may not be long before we see a resumption of the uptrend. We need to stand aside for the meantime until we see further confirmation of a continuation of the bull trend. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Sublime_Trading