"The Tesla of commodities" - And it's not gold, iron ore or platThank you China – and no… not for the Coronavirus
I’m talking about Palladium…
The main reason why Palladium is flying and will continue to do so, is all thanks to regulations taking place in China.
We are seeing major industrial demand driven by the expectations that there'll be stricter environmental regulations and standards in China.
In fact, they expect production to trail by 1.9 million ounces of palladium this year. That’s an insane 800,000 ounces more than last year.
For you to understand why there is an increase in demand for palladium, we need to look at what the main industrial use for this precious metal is.
Did you know, two-thirds, or 67%, of all palladium is consumed each and every year from the manufacturing of automobile catalytic converters.
What’s important to note is that the palladium - used in the catalytic converter - helps control the harmful emissions and pollution from fuel-powered vehicle car exhausts…
And now, with Chinese and European vehicles needing to meet the (China 6 and Euro 6d) legislation we can expect a rise in the global average loadings on gasoline-catalysts.
This increase in demand, will send the palladium price even higher.
Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia summed it up nicely:
"Demand is being driven by environmental regulations, particularly in China, which has increased palladium use in vehicles and should offset any recent weakness in car sales"
Right, so we know the big reason why Palladium should continue rallying, but wait until you see this chart…
This half-crescent pattern will take Palladium to the moon
Looking at the above daily Palladium chart, you can see it’s been moving in a strong uptrend from a low price of $1,460 up to the previous high at $2,530.
During this time, it has formed a strong upward (buying) momentum pattern which I call the “Half Crescent” formation (shaded grey).
This is when the price moves up at a steep and round angle, which creates a formation that looks like the crescent shape similar to the moon.
And now that the price has broken out and above the six-month ceiling level (pink line), tells me that palladium is going to continue to sky rocket.
To calculate the next target of Palladium we'll basically use my breakout High-Low calculation…
This is a target calculation where I take the price difference between the most recent high ($2,530) and the most recent low ($1,460 and I add it to the most recent high price.
Price Target =
= (High - Low) + High
= ($2,530 - $1,460) + $2,530
= $3,600
This means, we will be able to take full advantage of the palladium price rise while it rallies another $1.070…
Palladium
Palladium's Recent Trend Up 26%!The current 26% trend has now matched the trend from May to July 2019 in terms of percentage rise.
It still has some way to go before it matches the 38% rise we saw from December 2019 to January 2020.
Palladium has been forming a nice strong uptrend with clean pullbacks and smooth periods of
consolidation. We are currently experiencing a pullback which could easily turn into consolidation
but nothing to be of concern just yet.
If we see a deep pullback then the next obvious level of support is the $2,500 round number
which previously acted as a resistance zone. Price may not even come this low from where
it is now and may just find support around where it lies now.
What we are looking for next is a break and close of the current all-time high at $2,842 from
19th February 2020. Even if price breaks above this high, we have the $3,000 round number
not too far above which may act as strong resistance as well.
Our compounds will take place once price travels above $3,000.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Has Gold Found Its Peak?Gold, until recently has been a slow mover but has now started to gain good momentum.
After breaking above the strong resistance at $1,611 on the 20th February 2020, price has so
far peaked at a high of $1,689.
Whether this high will cause further problems for price is anyone’s guess but as price has started to
pull back, a break and close above this high will confirm a continuation to the upside.
The first trend shown, highlighted by the green box, rose by 22% and the current trend also highlighted
by the green box has risen by 16%. It still has some way to go if it is going to exceed the
length of the previous trend.
If the current pullback drops any further then the next obvious level that price my move towards
is $1,611 which is the resistance turned support from the 8th January 2020 high.
Gold does tend to trend for really long periods of time, however at a steady pace so we may see a
trend lasting several years.
We are currently holding onto our positions and will continue to compound once we experience a breakout.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Calling Tops In a Bullish MarketAs a rule of thumb you shouldn't call tops or bottoms, react to change. However ima give it my best shot for fun. A bullish divergence can be seen for Palladium on the RSI, which has lead to a large bull run comparable to the initial bull run seen, will this come crashing down like the fractal predicts? I'm no Nostradamus but it would make a hell of a trendline. Return to the mean channel is likely, eventually.
Palladium : Remember, You only have One Bullet...Hello !
First of all , if you think this analysis is useful to you,
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Let's start.
This is a one-try trade only.
XPDUSD 1W Chart :
Momentum seems to be slightly weakened, but the trend can be incredibly strong, misleading.
Our Risk / Reward ratio is 1/3
COT Position Status :
There are big reductions in positions here, but my opinion :
Short should only be considered for a permanence below Fibonacci 0.618.
And there is an incredibly forceful trend based on supply - demand.
This will continue violently in all directions for a while.
Parameters on Chart Presentation.
NOTE :
We definitely stop trading at these levels, including 2294 stop-loss.
For those who are at the computer: There may be under 2294 closings.
We definitely don't get stubborn under these places.
Best regards.
Palladium Struggling To Pass $2.500$2,500 proved to be a big hurdle for price towards the end of January 2020. Price soon started to see
weakness and the selling began but was caught by the 20sma support level.
From the start of February 2020, there has been increased momentum in price. The force of the
recent move appeared as though it was going to be enough to break through the resistance at the round number
but it appears to be holding price back yet again.
Right now the 20sma and the $2,500 round number are forcing price into a squeeze and we should eventually
see a breakout to the upside or the downside in the near future. As the trend is bullish, the bias is for
a breakout to the upside.
Should price eventually break out through resistance, then we should be seeing new historical highs created,
which a year ago would have been viewed as very unlikely to happen. This is the reason why thinking has no
place in trading. We can not think what will happen next, but we must act upon price movement as it happens
using a solid trading strategy.
The trends in the past have ranged from moves between 18% and 38%. The move so far has only risen 11%
and if the trend continues then we are not even in the 18% range yet so there may be more profits to come.
We will be looking to add further compounds once a breakout occurs.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Palladium bearish prediction on daily retracementAfter Palladium has had a recent correction it retracted to 0.786 fib, in fact it ran some further and triggered some stops in typical fashion. Right now it is below
that line. Notice the large top wick of 62 points (worth $6200 for one contract) . This is an indication that bears are still in control for now. Shorting here will give you a nice risk reward ratio.
Disclosure : I am 2 contracts short as of today
XPDUSD - Continuing up or falling back further down?Since the rally to 2525 price started to cooldown a bit. Price formed a range now around (2333-2256 region) the 38.2% fib level. If prices whishes to continue upwards then it must hold the bottom of the range. safest execution would be to enter on a break&retest of the range. This ofcourse applies for both ways. Palladium refused to fall down even with the pressure from the 'coronavirus' while equivalent commodities took hard hits, this is why i think there is possible more room for palladium to go up.
-We must monitor price carefully and execute on what we see, not what we think.
~Gratz TopTok.
Palladium: Correction in Feb/March then Rising Again in Q3Palladium is highly correlated to the SPX movement and Palladium's parabolic shooting star was essentially formed not only from manipulation, speculation and demand, but also, basically 6 months of upside momentum in the SPX.
The SPX in my opinion will likely undergo a deep correction in February and March overall - with some bounces along the way - before rising later in the spring months of 2020. Because of this, I believe Palladium will breakdown (overtime) to the pre-breakout level of the consolidation level which will be anywhere from 1850-2000 depending on the weakness in the equity market. In this case, I am looking for a minimum 15% correction off current levels of ~2280. However, closer to a 20% corrective cycle certainly cannot be ruled out.
Generally, I am looking for Palladium to correct anywhere into the 1850-2000 range.
This weakness in the market will be a good buying opportunity for Palladium (ETF: PALL) but not yet. I believe the SPX will inevitably get to 4000 based on further rate cuts (not a strong economy) and this will push Palladium parabolically higher again around late Q2 or early Q3 for the remaining of 2020 and into potentially early 2021. Inevitably, when a recession does happen (probably won't be widespread confirmed until sometime in mid to late 2021) this will send Palladium into a corrective territory of a 40% drop from the peak.
TLDR: Stay on the side-lines until the SPX shows strength in reaching ATHs, excluding fake-outs. This likely won't occur until sometime in late April-ish where it will regain momentum.
- zSplit
Palladium Halts After Previous Big MoveThere is no surprise that Palladium has currently found weakness after hitting a round number following
a strong surge in price. With every big move, we can expect to see exhaustion in the market before
a continuation in the trend.
Price first made contact with the $2,500 round number on January 17th and has since pulled back.
The recent pattern of breakouts and trends may be over if price declines further but for now the uptrend
is still intact.
When price pulls back, we always want to look for areas of support/resistance that price may move towards.
In this case, the next obvious area of support below price is the 20sma. It was last used as support back
in December 2019 and may do the same again.
After this level, the next area of support is the previous resistance turned support which is right at the
$2,000 psychological round number but this is some distance away from where price is now.
Palladium is still priced higher than Gold and currently holding the title for the priciest precious metal
for the time being. If we do see a break and close above the current all-time high at $2,543 then we
should see further bullish moves in Palladium.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.