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Parabola

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 279)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019. Previous analysis: “Two days in a row where I am as neutral as can be.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 Patterns: Parabola Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,313 | R: $3,464 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulled backed hard, will it turn prior ATH into support? Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0057% Short term trend (4 day MA): Bearish Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bearish Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish Overall trend: Bearish Volume: Fell off the table Candlestick analysis: Back to back reversal candles, but this one was not backed up by the volume. Ichimoku Cloud: 1h is starting to act as clean resistance right in line with the parabola TD’ Sequential: Red 8 Visible Range: Didn’t quite fill the gap Price action: 24h: -1.58% Bollinger Bands: Starting to squeeze and price finally tested the bottom Trendline: Parabola Daily Trend (Using 1h 50 MA to identify daily trend): Getting a golding cross with the 9 but still trending down. Showing signs of a reversal but too early to tell. Parabolic SAR: $4,273 RSI: In a bull div but it is also pulling back from h&s Stochastic: Just gave a buy signal in a double bottom Last Day Rule: Setup day is $3,223 for bulls and $4,373 for bears ADX': Pulling back from all time highs Summary: I am very interested to see if the parabola holds up or if we get a strong break. I adjusted it slightly from yesterday use the tops of all the wicks and now it looks a little better. Today I am inclined to say that the technicals favor the bulls with the reversal candle (especially yesterday’s that was on high volume). That daily stochastic buy signal on the daily that is also in a double bottom / big W is enough for me to take by itself, in most cases. The bull div on the RSI backs it up as well. Furthermore the TD' Sequential is on a daily red 8 and the Average Directional Index is pulling back from all time highs. However Conensio is fully bearish and I am in a no long zone until the price closes above the 4 MA. Furthermore I believe it is too early to open a long until the top of the parabola breaks, with a 4h close above. I am still neutral / in a no trade zone however I am starting to lean slightly more bullish.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
3
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 278)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019. Previous analysis: Was very surprised how even it was. Made a bullish and a bearish case Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 Patterns: Hyperwave | Parabolic curve (4h) Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,200 - $3,311 | R: $3,464 - $3,552 BTCUSDSHORTS: New all time high Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1344% Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bearish cross and trending down Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish as it gets Overall trend: Still bearish as it gets Volume: Big, next 24 hours are very important. It will either bounce off that volume indicating that it was oversold. Or it will turn the bottom of the body into strong resistance Candlestick analysis: High volume doji that has confirmed Ichimoku Cloud: Useless TD’ Sequential: Daily r7 and weekly r4 indicate more room to the downside Visible Range: Didn’t quite fill the gap Price action: 24h: +3.48% Bollinger Bands: Didn’t quite touch the bottom band Trendline: Turnt into a parabola Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Parabolic SAR: $4,314 RSI: Looks like it is throwing back to the neckline of the h&s while in a bull div’ Stochastic: Posturing for a buy Last Day Rule: For bulls the setup day is $3,206 | For bears it is $4,397 Summary: Two days in a row where I am as neutral as can be. There are a number of indicators that can be interpreted a couple of different ways and none of them of giving me any confidence about where we are heading next, outside of the most important. Bearish Case Consensio is fully bearish. The more I learn about Consensio the more I am learning not to bet against it. If I would have listened to the rules then I would still be in my short from ~ $6,300. Instead I closed out around $4,000 and even tried opening a long. I am going to be completely revamping the daily update coming soon due to how much this experience has taught me about recognizing trends and then following them above all else. The daily and weekly TD' Sequential also show more room to the downside. I was also viewing this parabolic pattern as very bearish and a potential indication of upcoming capitulation until I posted it in Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram and was quickly corrected by a trader that I have a lot of respect for. Bullish Case “Parabolic moves are characterized by unsustainability. They are quite fragile and tend to break in the opposite direction.” -David Puell a/k/a @kenoshaking At first I saw the price turning prior support into resistance and posturing for a big move. Now I am inclined to agree with David. Furthermore we are looking at high volume reversal candles on a number of large cap coins. BTC’, ETH’, LTC’, EOS’. That really, really made me want to close the rest of my shorts and open another long. However, I am making improvements to my stop loss strategy and sticking to a new rule, which is never betting against the short term trend. EOS’ is a great example of my new approach to stop losses. I was deep into the profit on a perfected daily 9 and really wanted to close out. Instead I trailed my stop to 50% of the prior days marubozu (ex: if extended range candle / marbozu then draw fib on the individual candle and place stop at 50% point. This should be slightly above the 4 day MA. If it isn't then make sure to adjust the stop). In regards to betting against the trend: if I want to go long (like I do off the confirmed high volume reversal candle) then I must wait for a daily close above the 4 MA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
4
Possible predictions as milestones in the near futureFIRST OF ALL: LOOK AT THE NEXT SNAPSHOT, AS THE CHART CAME OUT UNPROPORTIONED AFTER PUBLISHING AND MY CROSSING POINTS ARE NOT CORRECT BECAUSE OF THAT (OR, YOU CAN STRETCH THE CHART JUST A LITTLE BIT BY SLIDING THE MOUSE UPWARDS ON THE PRICE AXIS ON THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE CROSSING POINTS ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE YELLOW CIRCLES... DON'T TOUCH THE TIME AXIS AND DON'T ZOOM, JUST LOOK AT IT !) BECAUSE OTHERWISE THE PARABOLES WILL NOT LINE UP WITH THE POSITIONS I INTENDED. It might look or sound weird or supersticious and it looks like an astrological chart, but anyways... This time I used 5 different parabolas and drew, repositioned them over and over, and after an hour or 2... AFTER.. with no intention initially, I looked at patterns and detected by accident the remarkable crossings of the parabolas. I tried to find a pattern which could predict the near future. Of-course it is only with the history available, so don't take it too seriously (otherwise we could all predict the future) Though I found 3 remarkable crossing points. It are no moving or exponential moving averages, but just parabolic movements which connect multiple points and create some kind of pattern. It is the weekly chart, so the dates I will be mentioning are not exact, so could be about 3-4 days max. off-set. ( I didn't look up the exact date) All gathered data is after the all time high. At Jan 1, there is a lower high, and right after the market turns bearish; this is the exact crossing point of 2 parabolas At Febr 5, there is a lower low, and right after the market turns bullish; this is the exact crossing point of 2 parabolas At May 21... there is nothing :-) the only thing I can find that it was the exact same price as now... and this should be a support level ! maybe this should have been something more... who knows At June 18, we had the LOWEST LOW ! and after the market turns bullish again !! NOW... what you're all waiting for if ... you have some room left in your head for some potential 'hocus pocus' ... what will the future bring? AUG 27 : CROSSING POINT OF 2 PARABOLAS (this is also the crossing point of 2 major trendlines (ascending and descending) which I drew somewhere in previous chart SEPT 17 : CROSSING POINT OF 3 PARABOLAS ! this could be reversal point? OCT 1: CROSSING POINT OF 3 PARABOLAS ! I have no idea what will happen then... One more thing... what is remarkable that I don't have any crossing point between June 18 and now... maybe we're still in a bear market, but it looks kinda strange as aug 27 is the next crossing point and at the same time a crossing of 2 major trendlines at the level of 7800 usd ! I have a feeling we will get to that level again in the next couple of weeks... But... we never know of-course... to me a drop under the 6800 usd level, is passed the 61.8 % retrace and looks kinda bearish to me... but.. there must be an upside at some time and we should break above the large falling wedge one time. cya
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Wolverinos
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 2]In Part 1 I outlined an approach that I have been working on that's aimed towards trading parabolic markets. Now we look at some trades! Amazon Daily Notes: Hyperwave Phase 4 if it supports throwback to prior ATH’ | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Daily ADX recently crossed 25 | Weekly ADX = 37 and is currently crossing +DI | Daily RSI = 61.46 & Weekly RSI = 74.78 | Cluster of support at $1,720 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, the weekly and daily TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $2.49 vs $5.07 actual earnings per share for a +103% surprise. Time Analysis: Horizontal meets trend on 8/6/18 Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,720 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily Microsoft Weekly Notes: If it supports throwback to prior ATH’ then phase 3 is confirmed | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX > 25 | Weekly RSI = 71.14 | Daily RSI = 59 | Cluster of support at $102 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $1.07 vs $1.13 actual for a +5.61% surprise. Time Analysis: Trend meets horizontal support on 8/10 Possible Entries: Blind order at $103 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily. Risk: 5.31% Potential Return: +92.5% Risk:Reward = 18.5:1 Alphabet Notes: Tyler Jenks said that he is waiting for new ATH, throwback and new ATH to confirm phase 4 of the hyperwave (pink dotted) | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Support cluster at $1,196 from: prior horizontal resistance, phase 4 of the hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST level, weekly Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen and daily cloud. Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $9.45 vs $11.75 actual earnings per share for a +24.34% surprise. Better than expected earnings despite $5B fine. $32.66B in Q-2 revenue vs $26.01B during Q-2 of 2017. Expected: $6.7B income on $25.6B in revenue. $8.27B in revenue and $4.54 earnings per share. Time Analysis: Horizontal support meets hyperwave on 9/17 | Green 3 > Green 2 on the weekly indicates 6 weeks left to the upside. Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,198. Buy consolidation with reversal candles at support cluster. Wait for green 2 to trade above a green 1 on the daily. Risk: 10.5% Potential for return: +92.5% Risk:Reward = 8.8:1 The Boeing Company Notes: Hyperwave phase 4 | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX < 20 while price consolidates inside triangle | Currently getting support from daily cloud and 50 day MA | Weekly RSI = 64 | Daily RSI = 55.61 Q-2 Earnings Call: Expected earnings per share: $3.45 vs $3.33 actual earnings per share for a -3.48% surprise. $4.7B of operating cash and repurchased $3.0B of Boeing stock. Paid $1B in dividends, reflecting a 20% increase from last year. Q-2 Revenue = $24.3B with a higher volume of commercial deliveries and a favorable mix of services and defense contracts. Time Analysis: Triangle will be 66% completed on 10/30 and that is the most likely time for a breakout to occur. Possible Entries: Breakout of $380 that is supported by volume | Throwback to $380 on decreasing volume | Green 2 > Green 1 after breaking out from $380 Risk: 9.16% Potential Reward: If triangle is a bull flag and 9/5/16 to 2/12/18 is the pole then the target = $617 or +64.53% Risk:reward = 9.16%:64.53% Saved the best for last and ran out of room. Will have to make this a three part post.
NYSE:BALong
by Sawcruhteez
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 1]I recently watched this podcast with Tone Vays. Tyler Jenks was the guest and he started out by saying: "This is the greatest opportunity I have seen in financial markets." It just so happens that I have been studying parabolic theory as it relates to hyperwaves. I am using that information to develop a trading strategy that is aimed towards capitalizing on parabolic moves. I will be using Tyler Jenks' hyperwave and consensio theories, Welles Wilder’s RSI, ADX and Parabolic SAR indicators, as well as Parabolic theory from Spyfrat’s Call. The TD' Sequential and Ichimoku Clouds will also be used to a much smaller degree. Below I have outlined the indicators/theories that are being used, my approach to entries, four options for a trailing stop loss in a parabolic market and a rudimentary price target calculation. If you are not interested in the minutia of my approach then feel free to skip straight to part 2 where positions will be outline. I have identified 5 stocks that are currently in a parabolic state and one that is primed to start one. Entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations are provided for each. Three strategies for implementing trailing stop losses have also been included. Consensio Used to identify bull and bear markets. If price is above the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are all above the longer term MA’s then it is a bull market. If the price is below the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are below the longer term then we are in a bear market. Hyperwave Parabolic Burst Continuation 30-prd RSI is used rather than the more commonly used 14-prd RSI If 30-prd RSI reaches 70 level, stock is in parabolic status The best setup is when both Weekly RSI and Daily RSI reach 70 with the weekly RSI > Daily. If both weekly and daily RSI are in parabolicy state but the daily RSI overtakes the weekly RSI the asset is said to be in a ‘Parabolic High Risk’ (PSR') state. Indicates that asset is at a high risk of a major correction (paraburst) If both weekly and daily RSI > 80 (regardless if w > d), the asset is said to be in ‘Extreme Parabolic High Risk’ (ePHR) state. Source ADX and DI ADX measures the strength of the trend. If < 20 then no trend exists. If > 25 then strength of trend is building. Horizontal lines can be drawn on the ADX to indicate when the move is becoming exhausted. Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), together these measure trend direction. If +DI > -DI then trend is bullish. If +DI < -DI then trend is bearish. Crossover in the -DI and +DI can indicate a change in the market trend. Entries I will always line out a minimum of three entries. That is because I believe in entering into positions in thirds or fourths, only adding when the price moves in my favor. This allows me to minimize risk and emotional decision making. Trailing Stop Losses Bill Williams Fractals - Set slightly under most recent down fractal (if long). Parabolic SAR - Set slightly under most recent weekly SAR' or slightly under the previous 2 daily SARs. ADX - If > 50 on weekly and/or > 60 on daily RSI - If weekly and daily are > 80 Price Targets This is still a work in progress. I have noticed that each phase tends to go +90% - +95% from prior phases high. That can be used to give us a rough idea in order to calculate the risk:reward, however there is a lot more backtesting that still needs to be done. If you have significant data about the % ROI' each phase will return on average then I would be very interested in collaborating! Now that you understand the approach be sure to check out part 2 where 5 possible possible positions are outline
NYSE:BAEducation
by Sawcruhteez
1
Time to sell your TWTR stock may be approachingTWTR had a great week this week, huge full bodied green candle. Volume wasn't as good as previous push up. If we get a red week next week, it will paint a bearish divergence on the RSI weekly. We are now touching a possible downward trendline. Daily reveals a parabolic movement up. Risk:reward tilts towards a short play. Short this resistance level now if you dare, but I recommend waiting for a break down from the parabola or a confirmed weekly bear div.
NYSE:TWTRShort
by autemox
Bitcoin Following Similar Path to Silver?Here you can see the similarities between Bitcoin's parabola break and the multi-year rise and fall of Silver from its all time high of $50 oz back in 2011 (see my related idea chart on Silver linked below description), where the decline on both ultimately formed a large falling wedge to resolve (the red dotted lines on my charts). Silver ended up resolving its wedge at a long term support line leading back to the early 2000's, then broke into a period of consolidation within a symmetrical triangle created from those long term supports and upper resistance lines stretching down from the peak. We can see how this might look if BTC were to follow the same path. Silver only broke out of its wedge and began consolidation after tapping down on the .786 fibonacci retracement and its long term support line. Bitcoin broke through the .618, but did not fully retrace down to the .786 fib, which would have it tap down around 4.8-5k. As you can see, BTC has a long term support line that intersects the 78.6% fibonacci retracement in this area as well. Coincidentally (or not), the 5k mark also lines up with an untapped shelf area that Bitcoin never fully corrected back down to when it broke up through it originally. A lot of things line up in this area for a possible bottom, should BTC continue its decline further into the wedge.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Tastemaker
Bitcoin: BTCUSD In touching distance now from ParabolaBITCOIN: BTCUSD The Parabola Price was 7181 nearly 5 hours ago and it's 7169 now, just managing to hold above the nearest support line at 7150 Bitcoin certainly has turned dead (remember the end of Carrie?) - but we know it's just pretending. Amazingly the low today put it within 24 points of the parabola, which is rising at a hell of a lick and is at 7080 right now, rising by 6 points every hour now, and becoming ever steeper, as all parabolas must to remain parabolas...not really getting too excited by it and have no strong clue whether it will mean anything on a test of 7080, which should happen if/when 7150 gives way...just that it will be interesting to watch a big parabola in play, just to see if it's nothing more than a pretty pattern, or as with dynamic supports and resistance lines, they really are for real, just invisible to the blind and unitiated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Playing the ParabolaBITCOIN:BTCUSD Gone Parabolic Bitcoin throws some beautiful moves on the chart and will go down in the history books and Charting Books of the future as a text-book example of what a scrap of (electonic) paper can do if the story behind it is written well enough. Right now this is the best of the best, making Facebook and Google and Tesla look lame. How long can this keep going on before it boils over? One thing for sure, parabolas are very rare in real time (they are everywhere on the monthly charts...put the Dow DOWI on monthly chart and see all history and a parabola emerges - not so perfect as Bitcoin, but basically parabolic in shape on linear chart) . But Bitcoin is something else - so rare and beautiful to see one unfold. There is no sense in fighting a parabola. Every bear lies slaughtered for miles around as evidence. This bull will rip you a new one before you even have a chance to take your pants down. Nevertheless we can see from the chart on right that the current surge from 6165 up to 7500 high precisely has been very lightly contested/fought over - there has been some push and pull, shown on the left hand chart, throughout this recent ascent, with some nice positive pin bars each time the rising support line that's underpinning the ascent is touched - but returning to right hand chart it's clear that usually moves such as these have to be backed and filled first before the rally resumes in earnest, and in doing so it should give those still wishing to get long of this monster one last fleeting chance to do so... At the moment it's found support just above the supports shown on left hand chart and trying to fly higher - it needs to take out 7500 now to stay positive... if we see it falter and fail just above or just below 7500 then we have the first sign that a turn might be approaching fast...next sign would be a breaking below 7061 and a fall below the rising support line shown on left hand chart. Only at that point will the near term picture start to turn negative for Bitcoin. It should then fall back to the old highs around 6165 - to the rising support line shown on right hand chart at around this level - that would be the perfect entry point for those wishing to ride this tiger...time will tell.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
4