BTC/USD logscale weeklyHi guys !
Here is my weekly log scale btc/usd with all possible targets and bottons + channel
lets see how it plays in the next 2 years :)
Parabolicmove
End Of Industrial Revolution Parabolic AdvanceIt appears that the end of exponential growth the economy has enjoyed since at least the Industrial Revolution is due to end. Price target after breakdown is set at 70%, although the window to hit is so wide (~30 years) that it is unimportant other than to indicate that a major bear trend is on the horizon. Luckily, downward movement should not begin until 2019 at the earliest so there is time for further analysis. Will continue to update with any major changes / supporting (and dissenting) evidence
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 2]In Part 1 I outlined an approach that I have been working on that's aimed towards trading parabolic markets. Now we look at some trades!
Amazon
Daily
Notes: Hyperwave Phase 4 if it supports throwback to prior ATH’ | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Daily ADX recently crossed 25 | Weekly ADX = 37 and is currently crossing +DI | Daily RSI = 61.46 & Weekly RSI = 74.78 | Cluster of support at $1,720 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, the weekly and daily TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $2.49 vs $5.07 actual earnings per share for a +103% surprise.
Time Analysis: Horizontal meets trend on 8/6/18
Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,720 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily
Microsoft
Weekly
Notes: If it supports throwback to prior ATH’ then phase 3 is confirmed | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX > 25 | Weekly RSI = 71.14 | Daily RSI = 59 | Cluster of support at $102 from: prior horizontal resistance, 50 day MA, phase 4 hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST levels, weekly Tenkan-Sen and the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $1.07 vs $1.13 actual for a +5.61% surprise.
Time Analysis: Trend meets horizontal support on 8/10
Possible Entries: Blind order at $103 | Buying consolidation at horizontal + trend + 50 MA + cloud support | Waiting for green 2 to trade above green 1 on the daily.
Risk: 5.31%
Potential Return: +92.5%
Risk:Reward = 18.5:1
Alphabet
Notes: Tyler Jenks said that he is waiting for new ATH, throwback and new ATH to confirm phase 4 of the hyperwave (pink dotted) | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | Support cluster at $1,196 from: prior horizontal resistance, phase 4 of the hyperwave, daily and weekly TDST level, weekly Tenkan-Sen & Kijun-Sen and daily cloud.
Q-2 Earnings Report: Expected earnings per share: $9.45 vs $11.75 actual earnings per share for a +24.34% surprise. Better than expected earnings despite $5B fine. $32.66B in Q-2 revenue vs $26.01B during Q-2 of 2017. Expected: $6.7B income on $25.6B in revenue. $8.27B in revenue and $4.54 earnings per share.
Time Analysis: Horizontal support meets hyperwave on 9/17 | Green 3 > Green 2 on the weekly indicates 6 weeks left to the upside.
Possible Entries: Blind order at $1,198. Buy consolidation with reversal candles at support cluster. Wait for green 2 to trade above a green 1 on the daily.
Risk: 10.5%
Potential for return: +92.5%
Risk:Reward = 8.8:1
The Boeing Company
Notes: Hyperwave phase 4 | 10 MA > 50 MA > 200 MA | ADX < 20 while price consolidates inside triangle | Currently getting support from daily cloud and 50 day MA | Weekly RSI = 64 | Daily RSI = 55.61
Q-2 Earnings Call: Expected earnings per share: $3.45 vs $3.33 actual earnings per share for a -3.48% surprise. $4.7B of operating cash and repurchased $3.0B of Boeing stock. Paid $1B in dividends, reflecting a 20% increase from last year. Q-2 Revenue = $24.3B with a higher volume of commercial deliveries and a favorable mix of services and defense contracts.
Time Analysis: Triangle will be 66% completed on 10/30 and that is the most likely time for a breakout to occur.
Possible Entries: Breakout of $380 that is supported by volume | Throwback to $380 on decreasing volume | Green 2 > Green 1 after breaking out from $380
Risk: 9.16%
Potential Reward: If triangle is a bull flag and 9/5/16 to 2/12/18 is the pole then the target = $617 or +64.53%
Risk:reward = 9.16%:64.53%
Saved the best for last and ran out of room. Will have to make this a three part post.
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 1]I recently watched this podcast with Tone Vays. Tyler Jenks was the guest and he started out by saying:
"This is the greatest opportunity I have seen in financial markets."
It just so happens that I have been studying parabolic theory as it relates to hyperwaves. I am using that information to develop a trading strategy that is aimed towards capitalizing on parabolic moves. I will be using Tyler Jenks' hyperwave and consensio theories, Welles Wilder’s RSI, ADX and Parabolic SAR indicators, as well as Parabolic theory from Spyfrat’s Call. The TD' Sequential and Ichimoku Clouds will also be used to a much smaller degree. Below I have outlined the indicators/theories that are being used, my approach to entries, four options for a trailing stop loss in a parabolic market and a rudimentary price target calculation.
If you are not interested in the minutia of my approach then feel free to skip straight to part 2 where positions will be outline. I have identified 5 stocks that are currently in a parabolic state and one that is primed to start one. Entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations are provided for each. Three strategies for implementing trailing stop losses have also been included.
Consensio
Used to identify bull and bear markets. If price is above the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are all above the longer term MA’s then it is a bull market. If the price is below the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are below the longer term then we are in a bear market.
Hyperwave
Parabolic Burst Continuation
30-prd RSI is used rather than the more commonly used 14-prd RSI
If 30-prd RSI reaches 70 level, stock is in parabolic status
The best setup is when both Weekly RSI and Daily RSI reach 70 with the weekly RSI > Daily.
If both weekly and daily RSI are in parabolicy state but the daily RSI overtakes the weekly RSI the asset is said to be in a ‘Parabolic High Risk’ (PSR') state. Indicates that asset is at a high risk of a major correction (paraburst)
If both weekly and daily RSI > 80 (regardless if w > d), the asset is said to be in ‘Extreme Parabolic High Risk’ (ePHR) state.
Source
ADX and DI
ADX measures the strength of the trend. If < 20 then no trend exists. If > 25 then strength of trend is building. Horizontal lines can be drawn on the ADX to indicate when the move is becoming exhausted.
Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), together these measure trend direction. If +DI > -DI then trend is bullish. If +DI < -DI then trend is bearish. Crossover in the -DI and +DI can indicate a change in the market trend.
Entries
I will always line out a minimum of three entries. That is because I believe in entering into positions in thirds or fourths, only adding when the price moves in my favor. This allows me to minimize risk and emotional decision making.
Trailing Stop Losses
Bill Williams Fractals - Set slightly under most recent down fractal (if long).
Parabolic SAR - Set slightly under most recent weekly SAR' or slightly under the previous 2 daily SARs.
ADX - If > 50 on weekly and/or > 60 on daily
RSI - If weekly and daily are > 80
Price Targets
This is still a work in progress. I have noticed that each phase tends to go +90% - +95% from prior phases high. That can be used to give us a rough idea in order to calculate the risk:reward, however there is a lot more backtesting that still needs to be done. If you have significant data about the % ROI' each phase will return on average then I would be very interested in collaborating!
Now that you understand the approach be sure to check out part 2 where 5 possible possible positions are outline
S&P 500 on the next leg of it's parabolic movePrevious analysis /position: Made a post with a long entry on July 13th. I did not like the bearish doji (daily) from yesterday that came right after we broke resistance and had bullish price fill on the TD'. Very happy to see current bullish marubozu with another green 2 above a green 1. Long from $2,808.35.
Patterns: Going parabolic. Approaching all time high reminds me of the infamous double top on 2008.
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $2,816 R: $2,850
9 & 21 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 9: +0.45% 21: +0.67% | Bullish cross
50 & 200 MA’s: 50: +1.10% 200: +2.59%
FIB’s: 1 = $2,873
Candlestick analysis: Bullish marubozu (daily, weekly, monthly)
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bullish (daily, weekly and monthly)
TD’ Sequential: Green 2 above a green 1 (monthly) | Green 3 above a green 2 (weekly) | Green 3 above a green 2 (daily)
Visible Range: Last significant volume profile was $2,830
Bollinger Bands: At top of daily band. At top of weekly band (this is when it has made it strongest moves over the past year).
Trendline: Parabolic line starting in July 2010. Bottom of May 2nd to bottom of June 28th could be the next wave.
Daily Trend: bullish af’
Fractals: Broke up: $2,815 Top: $2,878 Down: $2,787
On Balance Volume: Weekly shows a small bear div'. Monthly has a bull div' with volume at a new all time high
Chaikin Money Flow: Bear div' on monthly. Weekly and daily look healthy.
Conclusion: Very confident that we are in for new all time highs. TD’ Sequential shows this run has plenty of room to go and the volume profile shows very little built up resistance. Buying right now doesn’t feel like the best entry to me but it could be justified with the TD’ Sequential. A pullback to $2,820 feels likely at some point and setting an order there would make me feel more comfortable. As it stands I am fully positioned and don’t plan on taking profits until a 9 on the TD’ sell setup.
AMD Price AnalysisThere's quite a bit to cover here in regards to this analysis.
To start we'll cover the indicators.
The Stochastic RSI cooled down, had a bull cross, and is in full movement again.
As high as the TRIX may be it just had a buy signal.
Kumo, Kijun, and Tenkan are all acting as support. Furthermore, the Kumo has been bearish this whole run and just recently twisted into a bullish direction acting as strong support. Tenkan and Kijun are also indicating this momentum is strong.
Further confirmation of that momentum can be see by the intense strength of the trend on the ADX. Right now it's at 54 and the DIs are still bullish.
All of this on top of the recent news that AMD announced in regards to their servers I would say we have gone parabolic and can expect to see a 20$ price target in the next month or so.
I bought into AMD at 11$ and i'm considering buying more.
MA: Double ABCD completionBack in April I was talking about using the elevated volatility to buy some cheap July put spreads on MA with the recognition that we might be early to game. Well...there appears to be a double ABCD completion in progress and I am keeping my fingers & toes crossed. Just a reminder, not only is this an expensive stock, it is a parabolic price action. Hope springs eternal!
MA: Parabolic price action & valuations = Massive ShortWhen I see parabolic price action like Mastercard's weekly chart, I start thinking on how to structure a short because we all know parabolic price action always always ends in tears. It does help that MA is trading at....3.5x of its average 13-years P/B and has a...-0.25% real earnings yield (adjusted for US 10 T-bond). With MA implied vol trading at an elevated 34 and a nice skew, one can structure a July -5/-15 put spread for c.1.6% with a max c.4x payout if MA hits the min price target of $144 (being the weekly 38.2% retracement). I am most probably too early on this call with my short term tactical view being positive as we head into earnings season (MA reports 2 May'18) but...it is either you get the high vol or a better entry price. Either way, I would like to get some optionality into the books.
Symmetrical triangle spotted. Elliot wave projection. we just had a parabolic upwards movement and we all know what that means, tricky business. alltough this triangle has truned out very clean we should trade with caution on this one. low volume could mean massive gains but the losses come just as quick. set stop-losses accordingly.
parabolic move, not a good signBTC has bounced nicely from 6k but the masses are already getting excited and pushing this into a parabolic climb that seems to be capping out slowly (RSi and OBV showing signs of fatigue). Dont get stuck buying at 10k when the max it could still go could be 11k maybe. Then it will most likely retrace to 8 or 9k shortly
Parabolic move for BTCI know this is a crazy stretch, but what if we aren't in a long term bear market like many think, and we have one more parabolic move up before a long term (6m-1yr) bear market?
feel free to hate on it and call me an idiot :D
Note: This is not financial advice at the slightest
PDCBTC parabolic price movementThe price of PDC moves according to the Fibonacci sequence. It broke out from the resistance level of Fib 0.236 which is located near the point 0.0000150. According to the RSI the price is in an oversold zone, combining those factors together it should move in an ascending channel till the next resistance level and then step by step till the completion of Parabolic pattern at the point of Fib 0.786 which is located at 0.00003539.
BTC/USD Parabola As long as the old trend line holds, we are on a parabolic run in Bitcoin. Will update when new trend line might be in play. My best guess is that we see 12K and then a correction down in the orange zone around low 10K possibly 9.5K. In this scenario the parabolic movement stays intact and continues upwards with an even steeper trend. 20K before end of this year.
Bitcoin soon ending parabolic movement?Are we perhaps looking at one of the greatest corrections in history? If this parabolic pattern carries out, we may be looking at a monstrous retracement of somewhere between 80% to 97%. We are far overdue on our correction, with both a bigger elliott wave soon closing out, with a smaller elliott wave within that wave, and now with the parabolic pattern on the outside.
Give this two months and everyone will be screaming that they were correct about Bitcoin being a bubble, and that's when we buy - at ridiculously low prices. Time to get our own garage to store all our lambo's.
DSH Parabolic Rise - Trading Idea FunWhat goes up too fast, holds there too short. Short it as f, it will fall like a duck ;) Channel support possible. Moles digging there :D
$BTC - on log scales, fractal parabolic growth, & 50k BTCBoth of the major Bitcoin 'bubbles' we went through in 2013 showed parabolic growth when viewed on logarithmic scales. Most probably think we are in a bubble now, and surely we are, but how far into it are we? Was 4500 the ceiling? The big difference between 2013 and now—as you see here on this log-scaled chart of BTC's entire history—is that we have clearly not entered 'parabolic' territory on this scale. That doesn't mean we WILL—after all, we're in uncharted waters here. Who knows how BTC will act this go around, but if the pattern repeats, and we do go more parabolic from here... well, you see the price over there. Is that talk of $50000 per BTC possible, not ten years from now, but maybe... months from now?
$BTCUSD Elliott Wave Technical AnalysisBTCUSD in a parabolic move
Where are we to look for a possible level for a short**
2227 is my level to look for a possible top for wave 3 in the wave up from wave minor 4.
It's too early to say where this parabolic move will end, but parabolic moves normally end with a sudden burst of the bubble.
One of the few Elliott Wave rules says: The 3rd wave can't be the shortest. That's the reason why I have the alt1 and 2 set in. The 3rd wave is already longer than wave 1 therefore there is no limit for the 5th wave up and therefor the parabolic move could still extend and go much further up and make a blowoff top. But for the time being I look for 2227.
I will track BTCUSD 10.18% ongoing. Stay tuned.
Best to your trading
WALLSTScalper.com
René
