Why Most Traders Fail—and How You Can Succeed!The charts you provided showcase potential scenarios based on different liquidity zones (LQZ) on multiple timeframes, such as 15M, 1H, and 4H. Let's break down the key insights from the images:
Key Levels:
Weekly Flag Trendline: This yellow trendline represents the long-term trend and acts as a major resistance or support. It’s crucial to monitor price action around this level for significant moves.
4HR LQZ (Liquidity Zone) at 2,532.077: This level signifies an important area of liquidity on the 4-hour chart. It’s a potential reversal point or continuation area depending on how the price interacts with it.
1HR LQZ and 15M LQZ: These shorter timeframe liquidity zones are at 2,482.129 and 2,470.544 respectively. They act as interim targets or bounce zones based on the smaller trend movements.
Price Action Context:
Wedge Formation: The rising wedge pattern visible in all the charts, combined with slowing momentum near the top, suggests possible bearish pressure. Wedges often lead to sharp breakouts, so a breakout to the downside would align with the wedge structure.
Multi-Touch Confirmation: The multiple touches on trendlines, both support and resistance, increase the probability of significant movements. This concept is supported by multi-touch confirmation techniques.
Scenario Planning:
Upside Potential: A breakout above the 4HR LQZ suggests further bullish momentum, likely toward higher liquidity zones. This can result in a continuation to the upside, as shown with the green line projection on some charts.
Downside Risks: A breakdown below the wedge support and failing to hold the 15M or 1HR LQZ may lead to a bearish move toward the lower liquidity targets. The yellow line projections suggest a pullback to 2,485.055 and potentially lower.
The Trinity Rule Approach:
Confluence Setup: If price interacts with three major zones (like the 4HR LQZ, wedge support, and Weekly Flag Trendline), we can assess whether these align with other signals. This rule adds extra confirmation for higher-probability setups, as discussed in your document.
Overall, price action shows a decision point around the wedge and liquidity zones, with strong reactions expected in either direction.
Parallel Channel
AUDCHF: One More Breakout Setup 🇦🇺🇨🇭
I see one more important daily structure breakout.
AUCHF violated a support cluster of a wide horizontal range.
It is a clear sign of the sellers and a strong bearish signal.
I think that the price will reach at least 0.56 level soon.
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ONDO Potential Upside Market Profile Traversal
Potential Setup:
ONDO finds itself under a 3 day market profile composite (formed by 28-30 Aug).
If price can find acceptance above $0.64 CVAL (composite value area low) either by breaking it convincingly OR by spending enough time above it, we may end up with a full composite traversal to the upside CVAH at $0.67.
Overall Bias:
The high time frame bias is bearish, but that won't affect this small trade. The mid time frame will flip bullish with the mentioned acceptance. And the short term bias is currently bullish.
Structure:
Market Structure is good. We are currently breaking (to the upside) and retesting the value area high of another 3 day composite.
MATIC POLYGON * WEEKLY TF EWP TC FIB ANALYSISThe chart provided is an Elliott Wave analysis applied to the price action of the cryptocurrency MATIC, on the Polygon network, in a weekly time frame:
1. Elliott Wave Structure
• The chart shows a corrective pattern (denoted as A-B-C or W-X-Y), which is a retracement in an overall bullish market.
• The price action is nearing the end of a corrective wave (Y), with a potential reversal point forming in the orange box.
2. Channels and Trendlines
• The price movement is contained within a corrective channel.
• The long-term trend is shown by the upward green channel, indicating that after the correction, a return to a bullish movement is expected.
3. Fibonacci Levels
• Multiple Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn on the chart to guide potential support and resistance zones.
• The 0.5, and 0.618 Fibonacci levels are significant for both resistance and support, with prices currently near the 0.618 level.
• The price is also interacting with a pivot zone (shown by the orange labels), and could potentially reach the P level at $0.446 before bouncing.
4. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• The RSI indicator at the bottom shows the market is nearing oversold territory (below 40), indicating that the selling pressure may be exhausting and a bounce could be imminent.
5. Price Target
• The a curved arrow at the bottom indicating a bullish reversal potential, suggesting that after this final leg down, the price could shoot back up to the previous highs and beyond.
• The upper target for a bullish breakout seems to be around the $2.714 level, based on previous wave (B) highs, with an extension potentially aiming toward the $5 level and beyond.
6. Support Zones
• The orange box (around $0.191 to $0.26) represents a critical support area, where a reversal might happen.
• If the price fails to hold this zone, the next support level is around $0.0454, which appears to be the ultimate bottom level of the correction.
Conclusion:
This chart suggests that the current corrective phase is nearing completion, and there is a strong possibility of a bullish reversal from the $0.191-$0.26 support zone. If this area holds, the price is projected to rally upwards, potentially targeting $2.7 and beyond in the next impulsive move.
EURO - Price can make small move up and then bounce down in flatHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price traded between $1.1120 level, which coincided with resistance area and later made upward impulse.
After this, EUR started to decline inside falling channel, where it fell lower $1.1120 level, breaking it.
Next, price exited from channel and started to trades in flat, where it fell to bottom part and even made a fake breakout.
Then Euro turned around and in a short time rose to the top part of flat, which coincided with resistance level.
But a not long time ago price bounced down and I think that EUR can make a small move up and then fall to $1.1045 level.
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HSI Bounce Alert!A powerful confluence of technical levels has formed on the Hang Seng Index (HSI), setting the stage for a potential rebound:
- 2024 Yearly Open Support
- 618 Fibonacci Retracement
- Channel Breakout Retest
Will the HSI capitalize on this triple threat of support and bounce back? Share your insights!
GOLD → Area of Interest 2475. What's next? 2450 or 2500?FX:XAUUSD is shedding downward on the background of unexpected NFP, which was published on Friday. The dollar is rising, which is generally negative for the metal. But, globally, gold is still strongly bullish....
The first half of the week should be extremely quiet, as important news will not start to arrive until Wednesday. Traders are waiting for CPI, PPI, as well as the Fed meeting scheduled for September 18, where they are expected to make a decision on interest rate cuts. A rate cut makes currencies cheaper, which only increases the interest in gold.
Technically, the price of gold can't consolidate above 2500 and is trading below the critical level of 2494, indicating buyer weakness, which goes into the accumulation or waiting phase....
Resistance levels: 2493, 2500
Support levels: 2485, 2475, 2450
Technically, it is worth considering a decline and a retest of 2475, as after the upward rally from below there is a huge pool of liquidity that attracts the market. Further, further scenario will depend on the market reaction to the range support: False breakdown may give a chance for growth to 2500, and breakdown and consolidation below 2475 may provoke longsqueeze to 2450.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
Euro will rise almost to resistance line and then continue fallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price entered to upward channel, where it at once made a first gap and then broke the 1.0780 level, which coincided with the buyer zone. Then price rose to the resistance line of the channel, making a second gap, after which turned around and in a short time declined to the support level, which coincided with the support line of the channel. After this movement, the Euro rebounded and continued to move up inside the channel, until it reached a resistance level. Price broke this level, which coincided with the seller zone, and then exited from the channel also, but when it reached the resistance line, EUR turned around and started to decline. Soon, the price broke the 1.1135 level and continued to decline, but recently price rose to this level, after which rebounded and continued to fall. Now, I think that the Euro can little rise, maybe almost to the resistance line, and then continue to decline next. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0920 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD - Price can leave pennant and fall to $2440Hi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to falling channel, where it rose to resistance line and then continued to decline.
In a short time, price fell to support level, which coincided with support zone and made a fake breakout of this level.
Gold exited from channel and later rose to 2478 points, after which made correction and started to grow in pennant.
Price rose to $2525 resistance level and some time traded near this level, trying to break it, but failed.
After this, XAU fell to support line of pennant and then started to grow, so, I think Gold can little grow.
Then price can turn around and start to decline to $2440, thereby exiting from pennant.
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All About the Flag Pattern (Beginner-Friendly)Hello everyone,
Today, I’ve prepared an educational guide on chart patterns, specifically focusing on the Flag Pattern.
This content is designed to be easy for beginners to follow, so I hope you find it engaging and informative. :)
Below is the outline I’ll be using for this post:
————
✔️ Outline
1. What is a Flag Pattern?
Definition
Key Components
Characteristics
2. Bullish Flag Pattern
Basic Characteristics
Examples
3. Bearish Flag Pattern
Basic Characteristics
Examples
————
1. What is a Flag Pattern?
1) Definition
A Flag Pattern forms during a brief consolidation phase after a strong price movement, often signaling the continuation of a trend. It typically appears when prices make a sharp move, either up or down, followed by a period of sideways or slightly counter-trend movement.
Flag Patterns can occur in both uptrends and downtrends, named for their resemblance to an actual flag. After a strong price move, the market consolidates briefly before continuing in the original trend direction.
2) Key Components
Flagpole: The initial strong price movement that sets the overall trend direction before the consolidation phase.
Flag: The consolidation period where prices move sideways or slightly counter to the trend, often forming a rectangle or parallelogram. This phase typically occurs with a decrease in trading volume.
Breakout: The moment when the price resumes its original trend direction. In an uptrend, this is an upward breakout, and in a downtrend, a downward breakout, confirming the continuation of the trend.
3) Characteristics
Duration: The Flag Pattern typically lasts longer than the Flagpole but varies depending on the timeframe.
Volume: Volume usually decreases during the Flag’s formation and increases once the breakout occurs.
Reliability: The Flag Pattern is considered a reliable indicator of trend continuation, making it a favorite among traders using trend-based strategies.
————
2. Bullish Flag Pattern
1) Basic Characteristics
A Bullish Flag forms after a strong upward price movement, signaling a temporary consolidation phase. During this consolidation, volume typically decreases, suggesting that the market is pausing rather than reversing. After this phase, the price often continues its upward trend, accompanied by an increase in volume. Bullish Flag Patterns also help relieve overbought conditions in technical indicators, providing the market with a chance to prepare for another move up.
2-1) Example 1
This chart from May 2023 shows a strong Flagpole followed by a long consolidation phase (Flag). The volume then increased as the price broke out, completing the Bullish Flag Pattern.
2-2) Example 2
In this chart from March 2021, we see a similar setup: a strong Flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase, leading to a breakout that continued the upward trend.
————
3. Bearish Flag Pattern
1) Basic Characteristics
The Bearish Flag Pattern is the inverse of the Bullish Flag. It follows a strong downward move (Flagpole) and is followed by a period of consolidation (Flag) with decreasing volume. Like its bullish counterpart, the Bearish Flag can relieve oversold conditions, leading to a continuation of the downtrend after a breakout.
2-1) Example 1
This chart from May 2022 displays a Bearish Flag Pattern: a strong downward Flagpole, followed by a Flag consolidation phase. After the consolidation, a breakout occurred, continuing the downtrend.
2-2) Example 2
This chart from February 2022 also illustrates a strong downward Flagpole, followed by a consolidation phase (Flag), leading to a breakout that completed the Bearish Flag Pattern.
This guide will help you better understand the Flag Pattern and how it can be used in your trading strategy effectively!
————
✔️ Conclusion
I hope the various Flag Patterns and market analysis techniques covered in this post prove helpful in your investment journey. Chart analysis is not merely a technical skill but also a deeper understanding of market psychology and movement. Flag Patterns, along with other chart patterns, visually reflect the psychological dynamics of the market. Mastering their use can greatly contribute to successful trading.
That being said, the crypto market is inherently unpredictable and fast-moving. While technical analysis is a valuable tool, it’s important to adopt a comprehensive approach that considers broader market trends and external factors. I encourage you to apply the insights gained from this post with a balanced and cautious perspective when making investment decisions.
New opportunities are constantly emerging, and those who are prepared to seize them will find success. The chart represents the market’s voice. Listening to it, interpreting it, and making informed decisions based on that interpretation is "the essence" of chart analysis.
I sincerely hope that, through continuous learning and experience, you’ll evolve into a more confident and successful investor.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Support and Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for Gold for next week.
Resistance 1: 2525 - 2531 area
Support 1: 2471 - 2484 area
Support 2: 2432 - 2447 area
Support 3: 2353 - 2381 area
The price is now stuck within a horizontal range based on Resistance 1 and Support 1.
Consolidation may continue, and we may see one more bullish movement to its upper boundary.
Alternatively, a breakout of one of the boundaries of the range will indicate the future direction of the market.
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BTC Long and Short OptionsBTC in green support zone.
Not interested in a long here on this double bottom there is no volume to support it on the 2hr and the daily is showing signs that volume is consistent for further down moves.
Only entertaining a long position if it traps off that next low, honestly isn't a great low since that was a panic move from the Japan blow out so I'm dubious if there will be much reaction there and price action suggest it just caught a lot of people off guard. Only a V shaped reversal for now.
For a short continuation price has to break that low and find some price acceptance and some sort of channel to form, be looking for a pull back to trap off one of the lower highs made.
Using candle close above 21EMA on daily or 2hr setup of a similar nature. V shaped with a solid 2hr close candle across the EMA with an increase in volume. No volume, then no entry.
Just a consolidation or a downtrend ? Since hitting an all time high in March, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a downtrend channel.
the Price is currently oscillating between the 23.60% ($60’000 area), currently acting as resistance, and the 38.20% ($51’500 area), currently acting as resistance.
The MACD is confirming that further downside potential appears technically viable, notwithstanding the expected interim rallies, until the price is able to break out of its down-trending channel.
Bitcoin can continue to decline inside downward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some time ago entered to the range, where it at once reached the top part, which coincided with the resistance level and then dropped. BTC fell to the bottom part of the range, which coincided with the current resistance level, and at once rebounded and started to move up. In a short time, the price reached the 61800 level, and broke it, thereby exiting from the range also. Next, the price made a small movement up, after which turned around and started to decline inside the downward channel, where BTC broke the 61800 level one more time. Later, the price declined to the support line of the channel, and at once rose to the resistance line and continued to move down. Price fell to the 56600 level and broke it, after which made a retest and continued to decline. For this case, I think that Bitcoin can make a small movement up and then continue to decline inside the downward channel. Therefore I set my TP at 51000 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BTC: The beginning of a rebound.Hello everyone,
Here’s a quick and simple breakdown of the key support and resistance zones.
Below are the reasons why these zones have been selected:
✔️ Support Zone 1. ($53,329.5 ~ $52,372.5)
Descending channel
Fibonacci 0.786 retracement
Significant low (S/R Flip)
✔️ Resistance Zone 1. ($55,969.0 ~ $55,499.6)
Fibonacci 0.236 retracement
Significant low (S/R Flip)
✔️ Resistance Zone 2. ($58,218.0 ~ $57,348.7)
Fibonacci 0.382 retracement
Significant low (S/R Flip)
There's a strong likelihood of significant price action within these zones, either as support or resistance. Keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s movement in these areas. Best of luck!
*S/R Flip: Support/Resistance Flip
This is not a buy or sell recommendation.
It is a personal perspective and should be used for reference only.
All decisions and responsibilities lie with you.
GOLD → Aggressive bulls and double bottoms. What's next?FX:XAUUSD is testing the support of the range, forming a double bottom and distribution. Buyers are not ready to say goodbye to 2475, aggressively holding this area. Price is heading towards the upper end of the range.
Bulls held global support, bringing price back to ATH amid expectations of key economic data from the US. NFP, and inflation data on Friday weigh on markets' assessment of the size of the Fed's rate cut this month. Gold traders will be focused on ADP private sector employment data, Initial Jobless Claims and ISM services PMI.
Technically, the focus is on the 2526 - 2504 range. Such a strong move (distribution) is fraught with a false breakdown and rebound, but there are fundamental nuances: favorable news can strengthen the rally and break the resistance, while negative news can turn the price all the way to 2475.
Resistance levels: 2526, 2531
Support levels: 2510, 2504, 2494
Emphasis on the retest of resistance 2526. High probability of a rebound to 0.5 fibo. Further, the market will be influenced by economic data, which will be published from 12:15 GMT. It is not excluded that the price will reverse earlier or fly to 2550.
Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:XAUUSD ;)
Regards R. Linda!
TON of bricks or light as a feather?If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Killed the impulse up. Doesn't feel natural to label the larger X as such due to the separation of correctives, but it's this or C of running flat.
Either way, the paths lead the same direction.
Impulse up with a corrective to LOI...of interest.
Trade Safe,
Trade Clarity.