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CHANNAL PATTERN - KAJARIACERTechnical Analysis: Current Price: ₹1,003.9 Target: ₹4,000. This is a very ambitious long-term target, implying a substantial increase. "History Repeat Based": Identified a historical pattern that, if repeated, could lead to such a significant price move. Time Frame: 1 Year to 3 Year (indicates a long-term investment horizon for the target). Trendline Support and Parallel Channel Pattern: These are bullish technical indicators. Trendline support suggests that the stock is finding buyers at a certain level, preventing further declines. A parallel channel typically indicates a sustained trend within defined upper and lower boundaries; a breakout from such a channel can signify an acceleration of the trend. Fundamental Analysis : Market Cap: ₹15,984 Cr. Current Price: ₹1,004 Stock P/E: 46.8 (Higher than the Industry P/E, indicating a premium valuation) Key Fundamental Observations: Valuation Premium: Kajaria Ceramics trades at a P/E of 46.8, which is higher than the industry P/E of 40.2. It is also significantly above its intrinsic value and Graham Number. This suggests the market is pricing in substantial future growth or recognizing its brand strength/market position. Declining Profitability: The negative profit growth of -17.9% and the decline in EPS from the preceding year (₹26.5 down to ₹18.5) and also from the previous quarter (₹4.88 down to ₹2.67) are significant concerns. This indicates a recent slowdown or reversal in earnings. Strong Financial Health: Very low Debt to Equity (0.10) is a positive sign of strong balance sheet management. ROCE (16.8%) and ROE (12.8%) are decent, but could be better given the high valuation. Shareholding Pattern: Promoters: Stable around 47.49% as of Mar 2025. FIIs: Have decreased their stake from 23.38% (Mar 2017) to 15.79% (Mar 2025), with some fluctuations. DIIs: Have consistently increased their stake from 5.76% (Mar 2017) to 27.68% (Mar 2025). This strong DII buying is a positive sign. Public: Decreased from 23.47% (Mar 2017) to 9.06% (Mar 2025). No. of Shareholders: Increased from 37,855 (Mar 2017) to 89,567 (Mar 2025), indicating increasing retail participation. Balance Sheet: Consistent Growth: Total Assets have steadily increased from ₹1,176 Cr (Mar 2014) to ₹3,756 Cr (Mar 2025). Total Liabilities have also grown but seem managed. Reserves: Growing steadily from ₹514 Cr (Mar 2014) to ₹2,728 Cr (Mar 2025), indicating reinvested profits. Borrowings: Have fluctuated but remained relatively low compared to overall size, reaching ₹274 Cr in Mar 2025. Corporate Action & Latest News: Recent news would primarily focus on the company's latest quarterly results (which, as per your data, show a decline in EPS and profit growth). Any announcements regarding capacity expansion, new product launches, or market share gains would be relevant. Given its position in the building materials sector, news on real estate demand, construction activity, and government infrastructure spending would impact its outlook. Overall Assessment: Technical analysis of Trendline Support and Parallel Channel Pattern suggests a bullish outlook for Kajaria Ceramics. However, the fundamental picture shows some conflicting signals: Positive: Strong balance sheet with low debt, increasing DII participation, growing shareholder base, and a history of growth in assets/reserves. Negative: High valuation (P/E above industry, above intrinsic value), and importantly, a significant negative trend in profit growth and EPS (both year-on-year and sequentially in the latest quarter). Target of ₹4000 (1-3 years): This is an extremely ambitious target, requiring a nearly 4x increase from the current price. While "history repeat" can be a valid technical argument, it would require a significant turnaround in the company's profitability to fundamentally support such a valuation in the long term, especially given the current negative profit growth. Conclusion: While the technical patterns you've identified could indicate short to medium-term upward movement, the long-term target of ₹4000 seems very aggressive given the recent fundamental trends of declining profit and EPS. For such a target to be plausible, Kajaria Ceramics would need to demonstrate a strong and sustained turnaround in its earnings performance in the coming quarters/years. Considerations: Confirm Technical's: Ensure the trendline support and parallel channel patterns are clearly established and holding on the chart. Monitor Fundamentals Closely: Pay very close attention to upcoming quarterly results. A reversal of the negative profit growth trend is essential to support higher valuations. Risk vs. Reward: Evaluate the risk involved, especially with a stock trading at a premium valuation while showing declining profitability.
NSE:KAJARIACERLong
by sara54654
GOLD (XAU/USD) Bearish Play Setting UpHello guys! Gold is currently respecting a bearish descending channel, forming clean lower highs and lows. After tapping into the supply zone around 3,285–3,295, the price is showing signs of exhaustion. Now, a potential rejection from this zone could trigger another leg down targeting the demand zone around 3,060–3,080. 🧠 What I see: 🔹 Bearish channel = trending lower 🔹 Clean retest of supply block 🔹 Price respecting midline resistance 🔹 Momentum favors sellers 🎯 Bearish Trade Idea (Not financial advice): Entry zone: 3,240–3,260 (on confirmation candle) TP1: 3,110 TP2: 3,072 (demand zone) 📐 Risk/Reward: 1:2+ potential 💡 Watch for confirmation candlesticks near the supply zone for safer entries.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by melikatrader94
9
AUD/USD On the weekly timeframe, AUD/USD approached a previously tested resistance zone around 0.63926, marked by prior price interactions. On the 1-hour chart, the price broke out above this level, signaling bullish momentum. On the 15-minute chart, a backtest of the breakout level occurred, with the price retesting the 0.63926 zone, now acting as support, before continuing upward. Trade Plan: Entry: Entered a buy trade at 0.64072 after the backtest confirmation. Take Profit (TP): Targeting 0.64352, aligning with the next significant resistance level. Stop Loss (SL): Placed at 0.63926, just below the breakout level, to protect against a false breakout. Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): The distance to TP is 280 pips (0.64352 - 0.64072), and the distance to SL is 146 pips (0.64072 - 0.63926), yielding an RR of approximately 1:1.9. This AUD/USD trade capitalizes on a breakout and backtest strategy, offering a structured setup with a favorable risk-reward ratio for potential upside.
Long
by yuvawealth
Bitcoin Dominance Analysis Channel Rejection and Its Impact Bitcoin Dominance is currently trading within a well-defined downward channel, indicating a consistent decline over time. Recently, dominance attempted to break below the channel but failed, resulting in a re-entry back into the channel. This failed breakdown suggests that the bearish momentum is weakening, at least temporarily. A declining Bitcoin dominance typically signals a potential bullish phase for altcoins, as market capital moves away from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies. However, in this scenario, the downward movement is relatively slow, confined within the channel, which explains the lack of a strong recovery in the altcoin market. For a more significant altcoin rally, we need to see a clear breakdown of this channel, accompanied by a sharper decline in dominance. A rapid drop would likely trigger stronger buying activity in altcoins, providing better opportunities for traders. It's crucial to monitor Bitcoin dominance closely, as its next move will provide key insights into potential market shifts. Stay alert and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. If you find these market insights helpful and want to stay updated with more trade setups and detailed analysis and join my community,feel free to ping me.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by wolfchemist
BTCUSDT - H4 Analysis For Next Possible Move!Hello Traders! As price is moving within a downward-descending channel, which suggests a bearish trend. The chart labels this pattern as a Descending Channel, which typically signals continued downward movement unless a breakout occurs. Bitcoin is currently priced at $97,680. A breakdown from the descending channel, leading to lower price levels. The target price is set at $84,020.27. The price is expected to test the lower boundary before breaking further down. If BTC breaks below $92,604.67, it may trigger further declines toward $84,020.27. Alternative scenario May wait for a breakout above the descending channel to confirm a trend reversal. If BTC breaks upward, a move toward $100,000+ could be considered. Thanks Regard: PipsOptimizer
Short
by PIPsOptimizer
XRP Is Warming Up Will This Breakout Ignite a Rally ?XRP is currently trading at 2.30, moving within a descending channel formation. This pattern is typically bullish, suggesting that a breakout may occur soon. The price has been respecting the channel boundaries, making lower highs and lower lows, but momentum is showing signs of potential reversal. A critical support level lies at 2.25, where buyers may step in to prevent further downside. If this level holds and the price forms a bullish candlestick pattern, such as an engulfing candle or strong green close, it could indicate the start of an upward move. On the upside, the key breakout level is at 2.42, where a decisive 1H candle close above this level would confirm bullish momentum. Using Fibonacci retracement from the recent high of 2.70 to the swing low of 2.25, important levels align with structural resistance. The 0.382 retracement around 2.40 to 2.42 coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel, making it the first confirmation zone. The 0.5 level at 2.48 is a mid-range resistance, while the 0.618 level at 2.55 to 2.57 serves as a strong bullish target if the breakout occurs. Additionally, the 1H 50 EMA is positioned near 2.35 to 2.38, acting as dynamic resistance that, once reclaimed, would further validate the bullish move. Momentum indicators suggest that the market is at a crucial juncture. The RSI is currently below 50, indicating weak momentum, but if it moves above 55 to 60, it would confirm a shift in trend strength. Volume has been decreasing, which often precedes a breakout, meaning a sudden surge in volume above 2.40 would validate buyer interest and increase the probability of a sustained upward move. For a trade setup, the ideal long entry would be upon confirmation of a bullish candlestick pattern, especially if accompanied by a breakout above 2.42. The first target would be 2.48, aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5 level, followed by 2.55 to 2.60, where further confirmation of bullish momentum is expected. A stop-loss should be placed below 2.25 to mitigate the risk of fakeouts and potential downside continuation. If the price successfully breaks above 2.42 and sustains momentum, it could lead to a rally toward 2.60 and beyond. However, if support at 2.25 fails, the price could retrace further toward 2.20 to 2.15 before finding stability. It is crucial to wait for a proper breakout confirmation before entering a trade to avoid unnecessary risks.
Long
by wolfchemist
PEPE/USDT Ascending Channel Breakout WatchThe price is currently moving within an ascending channel pattern, indicating a potential bullish continuation. A breakout to the upside is expected, but confirmation is key. We'll look to accumulate PEPE near the lower trendline support around 0.0001995 for a long position. The breakout target is set at 0.0002412, offering a promising risk-to-reward opportunity. Ensure proper risk management by placing stop-losses below the lower trendline. Keep an eye on volume during the breakout attempt for stronger validation.
Long
by wolfchemist
Nifty Short Term Analysis. Nifty today has given a poor closing below 200 days EMA but the only saving grace can be that the closing is just above Mid-Channel support of 23500 and Important Fibonacci support of 23263. These Two supports are broken then more hell can break loose and we can get to see the next Fibonacci supports being tested. The next Fibonacci supports can be near 22509 or 21585. On the positive side if either of the support is held and then we can see a new rally in Nifty wit resistances at 24718 and 25347. It looks like Nifty will take some time to reach new highs as the the mode is bottom searching and consolidation as of now. Fresh rally and Bullish recovery can start only after we get a closing above these 2 levels. However, this can be a good time to go long by picking good blue chip stocks available at good valuations. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
#XRP/USDT 12h / Elliott-Fibonacci-Financial ChannelAccording to Elliott Wave theory, the price rose during the impulsive first wave and corrected in the second wave as an ABC zigzag to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This aligns with Elliott's rules, suggesting that the correction of the fourth wave will likely be at 0.5 - 0.618. Based on the impulse of the first wave, the target for the third wave is 4.25, followed by a correction within the fourth wave. Using Fibonacci projections by shifting the grid from the start of the first wave impulse to the end of the second wave, the target for the third wave aligns with Fibonacci 1.618 (5.82). Without shifting the Fibonacci grid, the target for the third wave at Fibonacci 1.618 is 4.40. To confirm this scenario, the price must break above the peak of the descending financial channel. Successful trades!
Long
by WoWAcEDuDe
FET/USDT Long: Did you take it? See linked chartsIf you like these posts please remember to give me a boost and a FOLLOW! Any questions please ask away. FET/USDT Long signal. Did you take it? Bullish order flow was there. We have our targets, and stops are at entry. FET has been lagging compared to the rest of the market, especially in AI. Recent developments in their EARN & BURN mechanism look to be bringing excitement back and I believe there's plenty of catching up to do! Bullish Orderflow: EWT analysis & macro forecasting:
Long
by igreycrypto
1
EUR/GBP 4-Hour Bearish Continuation Trade PlanEUR/GBP on the 4-hour chart suggests a bearish continuation within a parallel channel. A Fibonacci retracement is drawn from the previous Lower High (LH) to the recent Lower Low (LL), highlighting potential resistance levels. An immediate sell order is placed at 0.8282, with a stop loss positioned above the last LH at 0.83418 to mitigate risk if the trend reverses. The parallel channel, showing consistent Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL), reinforces the bearish trend. For profit-taking, the first target (TP1) is set at 0.8222, and the second target (TP2) at 0.8162, aligning with the Fibonacci support levels. This setup confirms a continuation pattern, suggesting further downside within the established channel.
Short
by Naqash16046
Gold can continues to grow inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price a few moments ago started to grow inside the upward channel, where it at once rose to the resistance line and then made a correction movement. Next, the price continued to grow and later reached the resistance line of the channel again, which coincided with the current buyer zone, after which rebounded to the support line of the channel. Then Gold rebounded from this line to the resistance line of the upward channel, thereby breaking the 2605 support level, and also later exited from the channel. Price little grew and then started to decline, and in a short time fell to the support level. After this, Gold started to grow inside another upward channel, where it bounced from the support line and rose to the 2730 level. Price long time traded between this level, trying to break it, and later finally broke the 2730 level. After this, Gold rose to almost the resistance line of the channel, but not long time ago turned around and fell to the support area. At the moment, I think that the price can correct to support the line of the channel and then continue to grow inside the channel. For this reason, I set my TP at 2825 points, which coincides with the resistance line of the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
1