Dalmia Sugars - How to pick the Right Entry Price !!!On Aug 29, there was a Post market News being circulated across all Social Media Channels that the Govt has removed the Cap on sugar Diversion for Ethanol Production. As an instinctive reaction, everyone suggested to start loading Sugar Stocks and it would rally immediately
www.moneycontrol.com
But in Reality - only on Friday there was a mad rush on market opening which waded-off before close of the day and all Sugar stocks fell from their opening price and from then, most of the sugar stocks continued to fall.
This is the Reality of NEWS Based Trading... If the market always reacts in the same direction as mentioned in the NEWS, then the entire world would be filled by Warren Buffets :)
One of my friend was seeking advice on Dalmia Sugars - given the mad rush. Here is the detailed analysis..... Not just for Sugar Sector, Not just for Dalmia... This is how every stock needs to be analyzed...
1. On Quarterly chart - the price is travelling within a Life-Long Parallel Channel
2. The price repeatedly formed Rounding Bottom structures (Cup pattern)
3. The Depth of the Cup each time has been -80% from the respective peak levels
4. From Jan 2020 to Apr 2021 - the price had a massive Blast of 1,155% from Rs. 39.75 to Rs. Rs. 499
5. The price is going sideways with minimal dip (an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern / small Rounding Bottom) from Apr 2021 till date - During this period - the price attempted several times to Break out of the Previous High 500 but though it had 2 instances of breakout, it could not sustain above 500
6. The Current Market is News driven, purely to the Panic sensation of over valuation. Although I don't agree that Market really works on Valuation, the Crooked Media Analysts are constantly feeding Panic to public that Market is due for a Crash / Correction
Although I am strong on my view that there will be NO MAJOR CORRECTION atleast until Apr 2028, I don't discount the fact that there will be intermediately Blips - strong blips of 1-2% down or even 3-4% down in a day which will recover soon
But NOT all stocks will recover from these Blips. Especially the ones like Dalmia Sugars Because of the following reasons
1. 500 Level has been super strong
2. Stock has already given massive returns and in consolidation mode
3. In the previous 2 instances - the stock always fell down to the previous Rounding Bottom BO zone and also tested the Bottom of the Parallel Channel
4. If the last week's news could not break out of the 499 Resistance, then it won't be easy now. Even if it breaks above 500, there are 2 more resistances 545 and 570
Unless and Until 570 is fully broken out and sustained for 1 full week, the price WILL fall back below 500 anytime soon. All it needs a single day of market volatility - due to some NEWS even if it is NOT related to Sugar sector. If the Small Cap / Mid Cap index falls on a day, then 500 Support would be broken down and then the price would fall all the way down to the previous support level of 202 which is -56% lower than current level
When it reaches 202 - it would touch the bottom of the Parallel Channel and bounce back and continue the previous patterns
For now, the Risk of Falling based on NEWS is much higher given there are 3 back to back resistances the price has to negotiate (500, 545, 570) in near term
Even if the Sector starts a rally, Dalmia sugar might see a drag unless 570 is taken out. So, even if there is a Sugar Rush - better NOT to Rush on Dalmia Sugars. There are other sugar stocks to look into
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Stocks-n-Trends is NOT registered with SEBI. We do not provide Buy / Sell recommendations - rather we provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart. We neither follow Fundamentals nor Traditional Technical Analysis which bases its opinion on several Indicators.
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Parallelchannels
$PLTR | Allocation | Buy Limit | Technical Confluences:
Price is in Overbought conditions in the Weekly Timeframe (Will take time to play out)
Price action bounced off 3 Resistances; Horizontal Trendline, top range of a Parallel Channel and the top of a Supply Zone
Fundamental Confluences:
PLTR's specialized software platorms that are complex yet scalable in it'sdata handling capabilities gives them their edge
Competitors have yet to catch up to NYSE:PLTR 's advancement but competition is starting to build against them from other big tech firms
The growth potential in data analytics is massive and it has not include massive global expansion
A large portion of their revenue depends on government contracts which is stable but is susceptible to any changes in government and their policies (something to watch for)
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This counter is a one that I had enter prior to this as shown.
The story for NYSE:PLTR in the data analytics field is something that must be held in a long-term portfolio.
At the moment, I don't see NYSE:PLTR breaking up above the 3 resistances and am expecting a reversal which I will place Buy Limit orders (as shown) to allocate more into this stock.
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$PYPL | Allocated & Watchlist | Buy Limit & Buy Stop |Technical Confluences:
- Stochastics are in Overbought conditions in the Daily Timeframe
- Price is close to the top of the Parallel Channel and is currently in the Interest Zone
- Price action bounced off the Mid of the Parallel Channel which strengthens a bullish trend
- Fundamental Confluences:
- Paypal is considered a market leader in digital payments space due to its extensive network, brand recognition and services
- Revenue has been constantly increasing every quarter but lacking in revenue growth
- Better EPS, good FCF and reduced operating expenses are good storylines
- However, digital payment systems are facing alot of competition these days and Paypal being one of the initial pioneers will definitely need to step up and conquer back this space
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I have previously allocated into Paypal previously at 58.80 (when it was bouncing off the 78% Fibo retracement line.
I am still watching to continue to build up my NASDAQ:PYPL allocation. I will be looking to add more in the higher Buy Limit zone if the price breaks the Parallel Channel and goes above the Interest Zone.
I will also look into buying again close to the 61% and 78% Fibo line; assuming price cannot break the parallel channel this round and retrace backs down.
Will continue monitoring it.
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EURO - Price can fall from support line of wedge to $1.1000Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to rising channel, where it at once broke $1.0735 level and some time traded in support zone.
Later EUR reached support line of channel and then bounced up to resistance line of channel, breaking $1.0735 level.
Also, price made a gap, after this, Euro exited from channel and entered to wedge, where it fell to support line at once.
After this, price made upward impulse from support line of wedge, higher than $1.0945 level, breaking it.
Price some time traded between this level and a not long time ago bounced up to resistance line of wedge.
Now, I think that Euro can rise to resistance line and then bounce down to $1.1000, exiting from wedge pattern.
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$GBPCAD | Watchlist | Sell Limit | Technical Confluences:
- Stochastics has entered into Overbought conditions in the Daily and H1 Timeframes
- Price looks like it will target the top of the smaller parallel channel; it coincides with the 50% Fibo Extension levels
- If the 50% Fibo levels break, we may visit the 61% Fibo Extension level; the next range of Interest Zone and the top of the larger Parallel channel
- Gauging the Elliot wave count, GBPCAD is trying to complete Wave 3 move (we will then enter this trade to capture the Wave 4)
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Will be looking to set some Sell Limit orders in the Sell Limit Zone area and Target the 50 - 61% Fibo Retracement levels
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How to trade parallel channels? Parallel channels strategyHow to trade parallel channels? Parallel channels trading strategy
In trading, a channel is a vital element of technical analysis that traders often and effectively use. Identifying a channel in technical analysis involves constructing support and resistance lines that define the zone within which prices move.
Simply put, a price (trend, trading) channel is a combination of at least two lines: a support line and a resistance line. These lines are fundamental to any trading channel, helping traders understand market psychology and price movements.
Support Line: This line indicates the price levels where a downtrend may halt due to a concentration of demand. It’s typically the point where the price stops falling and may even bounce back upward.
Resistance Line: The opposite situation occurs here. This line shows the price levels where an uptrend is likely to stop or reverse due to a concentration of supply.
Channels reflect changes in supply and demand influenced by various fundamental factors. There are different types of channels based on the trend they represent:
Upward (Bullish) Channels: Constructed on higher highs and higher lows, indicating a rising market trend.
Downward (Bearish) Channels: Built on lower highs and lower lows, indicating a falling market trend.
Horizontal (Flat) Channels: Used in markets without a pronounced trend, where prices move sideways within a range.
Channels can also be categorized based on their time frame:
Long-term Channels: Often used by investors who aim to profit from major market trends. These channels can span weeks, months, or even years, providing a broader perspective on market movements.
Short-term Channels: Typically used by day traders or those looking to capitalize on smaller market movements within a shorter time frame, ranging from a few minutes to several days.
To build a bullish channel, identify two rising lows and draw a support line through them. Then, draw a parallel resistance line through the intermediate high between these lows. The key rule when constructing a trend channel is that the price should frequently and clearly bounce off the channel boundary, confirming its validity. The more the price bounces off the channel boundary, the more noticeable the channel becomes to other market participants, increasing the likelihood of a breakout.
The price may experience a false breakout of the channel boundary. Considering the volatility of popular markets, traders should allow the price some freedom to make a false move and temporarily exit the channel. A false breakout followed by a return to the channel can also be seen as a pattern that confirms the channel’s validity.
Why I Prefer Horizontal Channels Over Trend Channels:
Subjectivity: Trend channels can be subjective, as different traders may draw them differently, leading to varied interpretations.
Price Tests: The price may test the channel lines with near misses or overshoots, which can mislead market participants.
Profit Limits: Trading within narrow ranges can limit profit potential, making horizontal channels more reliable in such scenarios.
Traders use channels in various strategies to maximize their trading opportunities:
Buying at Support and Selling at Resistance:
This strategy involves trading based on the expectation that the price will bounce back into the channel, possibly using a median line as an additional guide.
Stop Losses : Place stop losses at a reasonable distance behind the channel line to manage risk effectively.
Take Profit: Set take profit levels to ensure a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, maximizing potential gains while minimizing losses.
Use Channels as One Tool Among Many: While channels are valuable, they should be used alongside other tools and indicators for a well-rounded trading strategy.
Aggressive Trading: Some traders may buy or sell during breakouts, but this approach carries higher risks, especially given the prevalence of false breakouts.
Most breakouts turn out to be false, with major players taking positions from traders who have placed their stop orders just beyond the level, causing the price to quickly revert. However, if the price breaks through the upper boundary of the channel and holds above it, it may indicate strong bullish sentiment. A strong impulse breaking through the upper boundary at high volumes suggests a bullish market sentiment, and the price’s return to the moving average after breaking upward presents an excellent buying opportunity.
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GOLD → a possible move 14 AUGhello guys.
let's analyze Gold. OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD
1. Price Action & Market Structure:
The price is trending upwards within an ascending channel, which has been a key support and resistance guide.
There are liquidity zones marked as "hunted," suggesting areas where stop-loss orders may have been triggered, causing a reaction in price.
2. Key Levels:
Top of the Channel: The price recently touched the upper boundary of the channel, indicating a potential reversal zone or a point of strong resistance.
2,468 Level: This is a critical level. If the price touches this level again, it could trigger a further downward move towards lower support levels.
Support at 2,445.75 : This is the next significant support level if the price fails to hold above the 2,468 mark.
3. Potential Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: If the price touches the 2,468 level and fails to maintain upward momentum, a drop toward the 2,445.75 level is likely. This move could be influenced by the break of the ascending channel and previous liquidity hunts.
Bullish Continuation: If the price can regain strength above 2,468 without breaking lower, it could attempt to challenge the top of the channel again.
4. Market Sentiment:
The market appears to be in a cautious phase, with the recent touch on the top of the channel suggesting the potential exhaustion of the bullish move. The liquidity hunts could indicate a shift in sentiment if the price fails to push higher.
Summary:
Current Trend: Upward within an ascending channel.
Resistance: Top of the channel and critical level at 2,468.
Support: Key support at 2,445.75 if the price breaks down from 2,468.
Liquidity Zones: "Hunted" areas indicate possible stop-loss triggering, suggesting potential for reversals.
Outlook:
Bearish: If 2,468 is touched again and fails to hold, expect a drop towards 2,445.75.
Bullish: Price needs to stay above 2,468 to continue towards the upper channel.
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TPL Plastech - There are many a Cups for you to take a Sip :)TPL Plastech - after breaking out of a Beautiful Cup and Handle Pattern above 78 levels, the price started travelling within a Parallel Channel forming repeated Cup structures (Rounding Bottom)
Today, the price momentarily broke down below the previous Rounding Bottom BO zone around 106, but took support from the bottom of the Parallel Channel and bounced nicely to end the day around +2.58% and also sustained above the Support line of 107
Today also formed a Harami Cross pattern which is a 2 Candle Bullish Reversal Indicator. Its so reliable because it formed at the intersection of 2 support lines
Targets are 140, 150 and new Target based on the new Rounding Bottom pattern is 170. From CMP - we still have another 70% upside left
Remember....
Every "Dip" in the price...
Forms a "Cup" structure...
For you take a relaxing "Sip"...
If by 3:15 pm on Friday, the price manages to sustain above 107 then you can Add / Buy Fresh with full Conviction :)
Disclaimer:
3+ Years Teaching Experience in Stock Market - Technical Analysis, Behaviour Analysis, Advanced Patterns, Emotional Management, News based Trading...
We are NOT SEBI Registered and Our focus is NOT providing Buy/Sell Recommendations/calls. Primary Objective is to provide detailed analysis of how to review a chart, explain multi-timeframe views purely for Educational Purposes.
We strongly suggest our followers to "Learn to Ride the Tide irrespective of its Side"
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$BTC | Buy Trade 1D | Buy Limit |Technical Confluences:
- Price action is condolidating at the mid of downward parallel channel
- Targeting the price action to move towards the area of resistances (Interest Zones, Lower-Bound of Parallel Channel, Horizontal Trendline & 50% Fibo Retracement level)
- Elliot Wave 4 completed or will it extend and then, aim for the 100% Fibo Extension line @ 93,359 to complete Wave 5
Fundamental Confluences:
- It's Bitcoin; it can go to whatever level it wants.
- Many disagree and feel it will replace fiat. IMO, not in the near term and it will be many more moons before it happens. In the meantime, it's my speculative asset, Lol.
- As the world embraces more of the blockchain adoption, Bitcoin hype will still remain.
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CRYPTOCAP:BTC orders set at the Buy Limit zones. Patiently waiting.
Remember, DYOR.
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
Euro can start to decline and exit from wedge patternHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price a few moments ago entered to upward channel, where it at once reached the resistance line and then rebounded down to the support line of the channel. Then price rebounded up and in a short time rose to the support level, which coincided with the support area, making the first gap and soon breaking this level. Next, the price quickly rose to the resistance line of the channel, forming a second gap, after which reached the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone and turned around. Euro exited from the upward channel and started to trades inside the wedge, where it at once declined to support line of this pattern. After this movement, the EUR turned around and made an upward impulse to the resistance line, breaking the 1.0935 resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. But a not long time ago it turned around and fell back to the support line, where continues to trades near. In my mind, EUR can make small movement up, higher than the resistance level, and then drop, breaking this level and exiting from the wedge. For this case, I set my TP at 1.0840 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Parallel Channel Breakout in VOLTASStock: VOLTAS
Current Price: 1560
Chart Pattern: Parallel Channel Breakout
Overview
VOLTAS has recently demonstrated a technical breakout from a well-defined parallel channel pattern. This breakout is an indication of potential bullish momentum, suggesting that the stock could experience significant upward movement. The breakout occurred at the 1560 level, which serves as a critical point of reference for further trading actions.
Trade Setup
Breakout Level: 1560
The breakout level represents the point at which the stock price moved above the upper boundary of the parallel channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or continuation in the upward direction.
Entry Strategy:
Go Long: Enter the trade at or slightly above the breakout level of 1560. This ensures that the breakout is confirmed and the trade is initiated in the direction of the new trend.
Target Levels
Initial Target: 1625
This target is set based on a conservative estimate of the stock's movement post-breakout. It represents an intermediate price level where profit-taking or partial exits might be considered.
Final Target: 1684
The final target is derived from the height of the parallel channel pattern. This level projects the full potential upside based on the channel’s dimensions, assuming the breakout sustains.
Risk Management
Stop Loss: 1500
A stop loss at 1500 is recommended to manage risk and protect against significant adverse movements. This level is strategically placed below the breakout point to allow some price fluctuation while still maintaining a controlled risk profile.
Technical Analysis
Pattern Confirmation: The breakout from the parallel channel is a bullish signal, indicating that the stock has moved beyond its previous range of consolidation. This suggests the potential for further upward momentum.
Upside Potential: The height of the parallel channel, when projected upward from the breakout level, provides a target range for potential price movement. The final target of 1684 is calculated based on this pattern’s projected extension.
Summary
Action: Go Long
Entry Point: At or above 1560
Stop Loss: 1500
Initial Target: 1625
Final Target: 1684
Additional Notes:
Continuously monitor market conditions and stock performance.
Adjust stop loss and target levels as needed based on ongoing technical analysis and market developments.
Consider using trailing stops to lock in profits as the stock price moves toward the target levels.
Disclaimer: This recommendation is based on technical analysis and educational purpose. Always conduct your own research and consider consulting with a financial advisor before making trading decisions.
EURO - Price can start to decline to $1.0830 support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price declined in falling channel, where it fell to support level, after which at once bounced up.
Price reached resistance line of channel, and then bounced down lower $1.0830 level, breaking it.
But then Euro made a strong upward impulse, thereby breaking $1.0830 and $1.0930 levels, and exiting from falling channel.
After this, EUR started to decline another one falling channel, where it soon broke $1.0930 level.
Then price traded near this level, but now it trades near resistance line of falling channel.
I think that Euro can bounce down from resistance line of channel and fall to $1.0830 support level.
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EURO - Price can make small movement up and then continue fallHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to grow inside rising channel, where it made first gap and then broke $1.0770 level.
Next, EUR reached resistance line of channel, formed a second gap, and then made little correction.
After this, price made upward impulse, thereby exiting from rising channel and breaking $1.0890 level.
But soon, Euro turned around and started to decline inside falling channel, where it soon broke $1.0890 level again.
At the moment, price trades near support line of channel, so, in my mind, EUR can make a small move up.
Then price can turn around and continue to decline to $1.0755 support area, breaking support level.
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GOLD - Price can bounce from resistance line to $2330 levelHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price bounced from $2330 level and little declined, but soon turned around and started to grow in channel.
In channel, price at once broke $2330 level and then continued to move up, until it reached $2425 resistance level.
Gold little corrected and then in a short time rose to $2483 points, breaking $2425 level and exiting from rising channel.
After this movement, price started to decline near resistance line and soon broke $2425 level one more time.
Then Gold tried to grow but failed and continued to decline, but now it trades near resistance line again.
So, I think price can reach this line and then bounce down to $2330 support level.
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GOLD is Bearish for a whilehello guys.
Key Points:
- Entry Level for Selling: The suggested entry point for a short position is around $2,395, as indicated on the chart.
- Downtrend Channel: The price movement suggests a descending channel, and the recent price action supports this pattern.
- Support Level: There's a crucial support level at approximately $2,340, where the price might find some buying interest.
- Trendline: A longer-term trendline can be seen providing resistance, which the price has respected recently.
Trading Strategy:
- Short Position: Enter a short position around $2,395.
- Target: Aim for a target of around $2,340, where the next support level is situated.
- Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss slightly above the recent high, around $2,420, to manage risk effectively.
Summary:
The chart suggests a bearish trend for Gold (XAUUSD) with a potential short-selling opportunity. Traders can look to enter short positions around $2,395, targeting the support level at $2,340, while maintaining a stop-loss at $2,420 to mitigate risk.
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BITCOIN - Price can start to decline inside rising channelHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSDT, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to falling channel, where it bounced up from support line and rose to resistance line.
Then price bounced from this line and fell lower than $56700 level, breaking it and exiting from falling channel.
After this movement, BTC turned around and started to grow inside rising channel, where soon it broke $56700 level again.
Later price made retest and continued to grow to next level, which coincided with one more support area.
When BTC reached this level, it broke it and rose to resistance line of channel, where continues to trades near.
Now, I think price can start to decline from resistance line to $63800 support level.
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The last bullish chance of TONCOIN in short-term !!OKX:TONUSDT
TON is in an ascending triangle which means the price is about to do a good bullish movement. The price can increase as much as the measured price movement ( AB=CD ) .
The break out needed for increasing further has not happened but it should happen pretty soon.
✨Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments, We will be glad.
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⚠️Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
BTCUSDT main parallel channelBINANCE:BTCUSDT passed main channel a few month ago.
As you can see the reaction of price is pretty good to the Middle Line of the channel.
The bullish move is so strong that the probability of reaching 50K is low but if the rally continues 50K area is a sweet spot for BUY.
GBPCHF | Short D1 | Market Exec | Incoming Risk-OffTechnical Confluences for Trade:
- Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on D1 and H1 time-frames
- Stochastics are also Overbought in multiple Cross-CHF pairs and even on USDCHF pair.
- Price action is close to a Supply Zone
- Price action is close to multiple Resistance Trendlines & top of Parallel Channel as well
- Targeting the 38% Fibo retracement for this trade
Fundamental Confluences for Trade:
- There seems to be some disconnect between asset classes and with everyone already so 'risk-on', the risk-off build up momentum is ripe for the taking.
Suggested Trade:
Entry @ Area of Interest 1.1570 - 1.1650
SL @ 1.1718
TP 1 @ 1.1425 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved)
TP 2 @ 1.1276
Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.60 (Depending on Entry Level)
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks.
Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only.
ADA Swing long idea The ADA (Cardano) long thesis derived from analysis of Fibonacci retracement, with particular emphasis on the golden pocket retracement level. The analysis is complemented by robust backtesting, a key horizontal level which acts as a support zone. The identification of a potential Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) and alignment with a predictive parallel channel acts as technical confluence, reinforces confidence in the long bias.
In navigating the upward trajectory, traders should identify and monitor key horizontal levels, which may serve as profit-taking opportunities. Concurrently, the implementation of risk management is imperative to mitigate downside exposure.