EURUSD Trade Idea for 15/NOV/2023In this video, I did a full breakdown from the weekly timeframe down to the 1h timeframe. I talked about what I'll be expecting from the market today and I also talked about why I might not trade today.
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Parallelchannels
13/NOV/2023 EURUSD ANALYSISThis is a fully detailed top down analysis on eurusd. In the video, I talked about the pair from the weekly timeframe, showing what I expect the price to do over the next week and also explaining how it relates to what I expect the price to do today. I dropped down the daily and 4h timeframes and also explained their relationship and why I expect the price to drop today. Finally, I dropped down to the 1h timeframe and talked about the levels I'm going to be watching out for before I take any trade on the pair. I also talked about what the market could do that will make this analysis become invalid.
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EURUSD TOP DOWN ANALYSIS FOR 13/NOV/2023From the daily timeframe, you can see that eurusd is in an upward channel. I will expect to see the channel last for the next few weeks because there's a possibility that the price will touch a weekly resistance zone for a retracement up above. However, the price moves in trends and made a higher high two weeks ago. Throughout last week, the price has been on a retracement move downwards and I expect the retracement to continue even lower than last week's low before the next impulse for the higher high comes.
On the 4h timeframe, we have a temporary downward channel which we expect the price to respect all the way down to 1.06500 or even lower within this week before the next move upwards again.
On the 1h timeframe, that's where I look for trading levels and from what I can see, the price is trading between 1.07000 and 1.06500. Like I already said, I expect to see the price drop so before I will take any trade, I will expect to see the price rise to the most recent resistance which is the 0.07000 level which will meet with the descending trendline resistance and act as a confluence for a possible move downwards.
In a nutshell, I will expect to see the price rise to the 0.07000 level before I start looking for selling opportunities down to last week's lows and ultimately 0.06500.
Tune in by 6:30am WAT for a video analysis on the pair.
TLT ~ Have US Yields finally topped? (Weekly / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart dividend adjusted.
Price action bouncing off Golden Pocket (66% Fib) support
Heavy trading volume = institutional activity (ie positioning?)
Rejection wicks on previous weekly candles = selling pressure still present (correlation with long-end yields holding strength)
Looking for re-test of lows + bounce to confirm double bottom support base established for bullish momentum.
Inverse play = price action engulfs previous candle, completes gap partial-fill + taps overhead resistance aka descending trend-line (light blue dotted).
Institutional short-squeezes could still be active - complimenting inverse play thesis.
Failure to break above/below either trend-lines = price action continues to contract until eventually ripping in volatile fashion in either direction.
Set alerts - monitor US yields - wait for trade to set up in your favour.
Crude Oil Futures ~ Golden Pocket Support (2H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! intraday mapping/analysis.
Crude Oil Futures finding support on Golden Pocket + lower range of descending parallel channel (white dashed) confluence zone after flat bottom break, while hovering above lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) + 66% Fib confluence.
Price action accumulating while digesting recent sell-off
Bias leaning towards bullish reversal to re-test break aka "return to scene of crime", TBC
Heavy confluence zone(s) underneath to keep price elevated (unless wrecked by major economic/geopolitical news catalyst)
Breakout above accumulation to validate bullish reversal &/or tap parallel channel (green) + 66% Fib confluence & rip back up to trigger fake dump/liquidity grab
Eyes on US Yields for correlation (linked via Related Ideas)
Set alerts - wait for trade to setup - hyper-awareness for potential oil manipulation by either OPEC+ or US (SPR refill narrative)
US10Y ~ Intraday Analysis (2H Chart)TVC:US10Y intraday mapping/analysis.
US yields dip while bonds & stocks rip.
US10Y in clear downtrend with potential bearish H&S pattern developing, TBC.
H&S development would correlate with bonds/stocks pullback before further bullish momentum into EOY.
Left shoulder, head & neckline outlined. Right shoulder parameters:
Rally above ascending 1st trend-line (green dashed)
Resistance at 200SMA, gap fill, 2nd ascending trend-line (green dashed) + upper range of descending parallel channel (white)
Price action rolls over to re-test/break neckline & validate pattern
Prelim target = lower range of ascending parallel channel (light blue) + 50% Fib confluence zone.
Note: break of "neckline" before right should formation negates H&S = express trip to prelim target.
Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Crude Oil Futures capitulating from early October rally despite ongoing Middle East tensions & geopolitical uncertainty.
Only macroeconomic narrative/headwind that would override war escalations is increasing probability of global recession-induced demand destruction, IMO.
Notes:
Flat bottom pattern development = bias towards bearish price action, TBC.
Crude Oil = highly manipulated trade with ongoing short-risk from Saudi Arabia &/or Russian market intervention - trade at your own risk to capital.
US100 ~ November TA Outlook V2 (4H Intraday)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis V2.
Always good practice to revisit your chart(s) after couple days with a refreshed perspective, to determine whether your initial TA has complimented developing price action, or your drawings need to be updated/overhauled.
Revisit updates:
Re-adjusted ascending parallel channel (green line) + highlighted middle trend-line (white dashed) to emphasize potential resistance of breakout price action
Extended descending trend-line (light blue dotted) to connect pivot points from Nov 2021 Dec 2021 peaks
Remaining TA drawings have held up so far, TBC.
EURUSD Setup 09/NOV/2023This is a detailed top down analysis of eurusd. I started the analysis for the weekly time frame, showing the levels I will expect the price to hit in the long run and ended the analysis on the 1h timeframe, showing the levels I expect to take a trade from today.
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If you're going to take this setup, trade responsibly. There's no 100% sure setup in the market so apply proper risk management.
EURUSD Analysis and setup for 07/Nov/2023This is a detailed analysis which shows the levels I'll be watching out for from the daily time frame all the way down to the the 1h timeframe. It's a full top-down analysis that is purely based off of price action.
Remember that forex is risky so everything you see in this video is purely for educational purpose and is my Idea. It doesn't act as investment advice. If you trade based on the analysis in this video, you are doing it at your own risk.
US10Y ~ November TA Outlook (Weekly Chart)TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis.
US10Y getting dumped off combination FOMC decision, US economic data + US Treasuries update triggering institutional short covering.
Bond & equities market squeezed higher, in-line with seasonality.
Possible bearish H&S in development on lower timeframe, pending pattern confirmation.
When Madras Fertilizer is set to be a quick Riser.Madras Fertilizers Limited is engaged in the manufacturing of Urea and Complex Fertilizers. It is also involved in manufacturing Bio-fertilizers and trading eco-friendly Agro Chemicals, Organic Manure, and City Compost under the brand name ‘Vijay’
The Co has proposed to set up a 20 MW gas-based power plant with Gas turbine along with Heat recovery by steam generation. It is expected to be funded through the sale of vacant Land in Guindy and Manali and the rest through internal accruals
The Co has changed feedstock from Naptha to RLNG which has resulted in reduction in the cost of production of urea.
The Co is concentrating on product diversification under which two new projects have emerged which are under the study of technical feasibility and financial viability.
Market Cap 1,216 Cr.
Stock P/E 6.56
Industry P/E 10.2
ROCE 26.8 %
EPS 11.5
EPS preceding year 10.1
US500 ~ 4H Intraday (Bearish Capitulation)CAPITALCOM:US500 intraday chart analysis:
4H chart = bearish H&S pattern development + neckline test validation.
Fib retracements:
Straight line/left labels = March 2020 (Covid) low - Jan 2022 high
Dotted line/right labels = Jan 2022 high - Oct 2022 low
1st target (yellow dashed):
~4100 lower parallel channel & May/June lower-range chop confluence
Temporary oversold/bounce target? TBC..
2nd target (white dotted):
~4000 psych level, H&S extrapolation, 38.2% Fib retrace & declining trend-line (Aug 2022 + Feb 2023 peaks/pivot points)
Bullish reversal target:
~4200 (23.6% Fib retrace)
Amazon (AMZN) -> Growing With E-CommerceMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Amazon.
Looking back at January of 2023 you can see that Amazon stock perfectly retested and already rejected the support trendline of the rising channel and also a previous resistance level.
With Amazon currently retesting resistance at the $141 level, I do expect a minor rejection but then I would love to see a break and retest and another push higher to retest the channel top.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
CADCHF: WATCH The Breakout Trap ❗Buyers attempted to push price out of the descending trendline but failed at the breakout. The price has now sunk slightly to liquidate some of the buyer liquidity before it reverses and goes to sweep the seller liquidity. Potentially now giving the true breakout move, time will tell.
AAPL Targets Lower, Be SmartWe are at an interesting zone when it comes to AAPL. It's holding strong above the most relevant pivot low as you'll see in the chart. There is a chance that it can go up fro here so if you would like to long, I would place a stoploss elow the recent wick low. I would also manage my position size so the its a 1% risk on the trade it your stop was to hit.
In the end, when zooming out, I think AAPL will retrace back to the bottom of the channel before pumping higher. There are a few key levels on the way dwn where we can expect a reaction and other trade set ups to play out.
I'm currently long, anticipating a small bounce at these levels, with a 1% stop under the current wick low. Lets see how it all plays out.
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This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.