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Parity

#Elliot wave #eurusd #short #fourthwaveThe last few days price action looks to have completed a very nice fourth wave in an 5 wave impulse beginning from late August highs. Some of the key factors I would identify are 1) the scale of the moves, the first wave being similar in size and time is not surprising 2) the alternance principle in the retracement waves - 2 versus 4. Typically in a 5 wave set the two retracement waves - (2 and 4) will have different characters, in this case the 2nd wave was quite a sideways retracement following a first impulse off the 1.16-1.17 area highs, and conversely the 4th wave has been a violent move. 3) the 4th wave has just stopped short (as of now) of touching the 1st wave thus not violating the EW principles (otherwise the wave count could not be correct!). 4) The wave count "looks good" in my opinion anyway. If this analysis is correct it would suggest a move through the sub-1.06 lows, and potentially and extended 5th wave the size of the 3rd (1.15 to 1.06) - this would target parity/1 in the next couple of months! Let me know if you have any thoughts or observations on this throughcalmandthroughstorms.wordpress.com
Short
by cns
Long to an eventual double top, short to parity...;)If the downward movement continues, a breakout of this support to the 61.8% fib is a possibility, or even go further from here. If a retraction arise, from this Support where we are, or from below (acting as a false breakout of this support), we will look for the last lower lows from structure, around 1.108 or 1.122, however, the 61.8% fib extension from the eventual leg that is now being created to 1.088 (if we get there), points to a double top around 1.122 area.
Short
by Andre_Cardoso
1
Long live the... Dollar?Back in July 2014, price broke out of a falling wedge pattern, found resistance at the 1.000 level and following the unpegging of the Swiss Franc, retested the backside of the wedge this January. Since this event market sentiment on the dollar has been incredibly bullish, pushing price through the parity resistance within the last week. It has since been failing to break back past this new found resistance, and on the weekly chart a Golden Cross looks set to take place, giving further catalyst for bullish continuation. If sentiment for the dollar continues as it is, we could expect a nice long opportunity at this point towards the 0.382 retracement level, which also happens to lay just below the 1.15 resistance level. A stop loss just below parity here would give you an excellent 10:1 Reward:Risk ratio! For those of you feeling particularly ambitious, the 0.618 retracement level happens to lay on the 1.4000 Monthly support. Good luck!
Long
by ForexVader
Cover Your Shorts, Exit Strategy and Reversal of Trade If you have been short EUR/USD or buying FXE puts, for this last move its time to scale out and take profits. Tomorrow morning we will have a volatile whip lash as the ECB is likely going to announce QE. There have already been reports of leaking news concerning the size and scope of the QE. Bloomberg has even mentioned a delayed start date, March 1st. From the charts I'm reading I'm expecting a quick plunge as low as 1.12 with a rally that could go as high as 1.20. This is the relief rally many traders have been begging for. So take the bold action and go long. However, don't hold on thinking this is the start of a new long term bullish uptrend, we will eventually see parity and finally .80 EUR/USD handle.
by QuantitativeExhaustion
33