"PANW" Palo Alto Networks - Insider TradingPANW is being bought by US Parliament member Nancy Pelosi, she bought twice in past month.
The current price is in perfect Golden Zone on Daily chart. If we go past ATH there is no actual telling where it will go up to next, we might just move sideways for now to reset RSI or even start moving up at any time. But it also might just drop down a bit.
Palo Alto Networks, a cybersecurity company that provides advanced firewall and cloud security solutions. Palo Alto Networks offers a range of products and services aimed at protecting organizations from cyber threats, including next-generation firewalls, cloud security, endpoint protection, and threat intelligence services. The company is known for its focus on innovation and its commitment to helping businesses secure their digital assets against evolving cyber threats.
Parliament
A Golden Cross for EUA FuturesEuropean Union Carbon Allowances (EUAs) rose close to 19% in the past month (16/01/2023-15/02/2023). In its quarterly publication released on Monday 13th February 2023, the European Commission revised upwards its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 0.9% in 2023 from 0.3% previously. Moreover, it expects the trading block to avoid recession. With the European Union on a healthier footing than previously assumed, market participants are more optimistic and hence have upgraded their expectations on carbon allowance demand. The compliance deadline for 2022 emissions is 30th April 2023. There could be strength in demand as we approach that date.
At the same time, markets are anticipating an announcement on final decisions from trialogue discussions (between the European Council, European Commission and European Parliament) on the ‘Fit for 55’ legislative proposal package put forward in 2021. The preliminary agreement announced in December 2022 was more aggressive than the European Commission’s initial proposal on many fronts affecting the European Emissions Trading System (See summary table of some of the provisional agreements below). A tighter Linear Reduction Factor; wider scope of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms; an extension of the Market Stability Reserve intake of 24% to 2030 are all positive for EUA prices. The market awaits confirmation that these will be in the final wording.
Still risks linger with the financing of REPowerEU, where the Commission had proposed monetising some of the EUAs in the Market Stability Reserve. Parliament voted on 14th February to partially accept the idea of using Allowances in the Reserve to finance REpowerEU (by taking €12bn from the European Innovation Fund and then compensating the Fund with 27 million Allowances)1. The remaining €8bn will come from front-loading planned auctions of EUAs. If the Council also approves we see this as a price negative move.
With close to a 19% gain in EUA futures prices in the past month, the market has entered a “Golden Cross” in technical analysis jargon, where the 50 day moving average (DMA) price rises above the 200 DMA. It is interpreted by technical analysts and traders as signalling a definitive upward turn in a market.
Sources:
1 Peter Liese Press Release - Overcome dependency from Russian Oil and Gas breathing speace for electricity consumers and industry
ORBEX:BoJo Pushes for Election, Draghi Hints to Fiscal Measures!In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPUSD and #EURUSD #FXMajors!
GBPUSD Dragged down by:
- BoJo push for an early election on December 12
- Increasing likelihood of October exit failure
EURUSD Under Pressure as:
- ECB reiterates downside risk, stubbornly low inflation
- Draghi hints to fiscal policy measures
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Draghi - Last word, Johnson's threats, EU and USA statisticsThe main event will be the announcement of the ECB decision on the monetary policy parameters in the Eurozone. Given the general tendency toward easing monetary policy in the world and the recent actions of the Central Bank of Europe, euro can be expected a pretty unpleasant surprise, In theory. But in practice, most likely everything will be ok.
Mario Draghi is ending his eight-year term at the European Central Bank. Accordingly, there is simply no reason for him to present any surprises and slam the door after leaving. However, follow the ECB's comments on the quantitative easing program and the size of bond purchases by the Central Bank is needed.
Given the general state of the global economy in general and the Eurozone in particular, the ECB does not have to rely on positive signals for the euro today. But they are unlikely to sell the euro. In this regard, today we recommend working with the euro with hourly oscillators, but with a mandatory eye to the decision and comments of the ECB.
Also, today it is worth paying attention to data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone. They may well create the ground for a subsequent reaction to the results of the ECB meeting.
As for other countries and currencies, quite a lot of macroeconomic statistics will be published in the United States, including data on orders for durable goods, business activity indexes, as well as statistics on sales of new homes. We are still negative about the dollar, so we recommend using weak data as a reason for its sales in the foreign exchange market.
The Brexit situation is again plunging into a chaos of uncertainty, but uncertainty without a global threat. This refers to an exit without a deal.
On the one hand, the House of Commons of the British Parliament supported the new Brexit bill, based on an agreement reached by the government with EU representatives last week. On the other hand, Johnson does not abandon attempts to complete Brexit by October 31 and proposed that Parliament finally approve the agreement on Thursday, otherwise he promised to withdraw the agreement and call early elections.
Despite Johnson’s threats, markets generally believe in a happy ending but are not completely sure what final form Brexit will take. In this regard, our recommendations to buy the pound on the rebound remain relevant today.
The oil market experienced some recovery yesterday after the publication of data on oil reserves in the United States. Oil stocks unexpectedly declined (by approximately 1.7 million barrels, while markets were preparing to continue their growth by 3 million barrels). Our position in oil is still unchanged: while the asset is above 51.20 (WTI brand), we give preference to purchases on the intraday basis.
Markets took a break, pound tested 1.30"Markets took a break" the lack of high-profile news and frankly difficult weeks contributed to that yesterday.
GBP has tested 1.30 against the dollar. As we expected unsuccessfully since a successful test requires positive news from Britain. Johnson’s attempt to accelerate the negotiation process did not bring home the bacon. Parliament refused to re-vote on the approval of the agreement. Motivation: the decision was already made on Saturday and it makes no sense to discuss the same thing again.
However, Johnson does not give up trying to take the UK out of the EU on 31 October. We are rather sceptical about this and are waiting for a delay for another 2-3 months. Nevertheless, the general feeling of further leaving hangs in the air, so buying pounds in the daily lows area still seems to us to be a good trading idea. In the end, the growth potential has not yet been exhausted.
Another promising idea, in our opinion, is the sale of the dollar. But recently, we see more and more reasons to start a downward dollar rally: rates in the US are falling, economic indicators are deteriorating, US exporters continue to suffer due to a strong dollar (in the current reporting season, at least 16 leading companies have complained about problems with profit due to for a strong dollar), in addition and do not forget about the structural problems of the US economy (public debt, chronic trade deficit and trillion budget deficit). So we will continue to look for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Canadian retail sales figures are what we are waiting to come out. Especially because the Canadian dollar has recently strengthened in the foreign exchange market. On the one hand, the Canadian dollar may still grow. On the other hand, weak data on the background of a rather strong overbought Canadian dollar may well give a signal for fixing profits and starting correction in pairs with the Canadian dollar. We are closely watching the news.
UK Verdict, our recommendations and plansA new version of the Brexit deal has been agreed between the EU and the UK. The pound added about 500 points by the end of the week, bringing the account of its achievements to almost 1000 points. Recall that the UK and the EU, as we predicted, were able to agree on the terms of the deal at the last moment. As a result, at the EU summit on Thursday, this deal was approved by Europe.
Another problem appeared - Johnson does not have a majority in Parliament. Accordingly, he had pretty high chances to repeat the fate of his predecessor, Theresa May, who also agreed on the deal, but could not pass it through Parliament. On Saturday, a vote took place, following which the British Parliament ordered Johnson to ask for a 3-month postpone so that parliamentarians could bring its legislation into line with the new realities.
Johnson, who says more than once that there will be no postpone. Thus, he was put in a rather uncomfortable position. In general, there is a feeling that such a vote is rather an attempt to publicly humiliate Johnson, rather than a really necessary thing to do.
Nevertheless, Johnson sent an unsigned letter to the European Union on Saturday requesting a Brexit delay. At the same time, he sent a couple of letters to the EU (which he did not forget to sign), in one of them he says that he is against the postponement.
This week we will continue to look for points for its purchases because the Brexit issue has not been solved yet. Therefore there is still potential for the pound to grow.
It is worth noting the weak statistics for the United States and China, which only confirmed what has been clear for a long time: trade war cause real harm to everyone. No breakthroughs were observed regarding the end of them. In this regard, we recommended focusing on finding entry points for the purchase of safe-haven assets.
Given the state of financial markets at the beginning of the week, we see no reason to revise our recommendations and this week we will continue to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen.
As for the euro. Technically you need to buy EURUSD, we recommend doing it with an eye on Thursday. The ECB will announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy in the Eurozone on Thursday. Most likely, there will be no changes, but given the general weakness of the Eurozone economy, we will not be surprised at the “dovish” comments from the Central Bank or even the expansion of measures to soften the monetary policy, which may well provoke euro sales.
The oil market was relatively calm last week. And although the Middle East continues to resemble a powder keg (Turkish military operation in Syria, an attack on an Iranian tanker, etc.), so far the markets are trying to ignore it. Last week, reserves increased by almost 10 million barrels - the maximum value since April 2019. Saudi Aramco has postponed the launch of its long-awaited initial public offering on Sunday. And although there is no direct connection between this event and the state of the oil market, in general, this is a rather bearish signal. As for our position, it is generally unchanged, while oil (WTI brand) is higher than 51.20, we tend to buy oil.
The supreme test of pound, China's GDP & US retail salesYesterday Brexit turned a corner. The Prime Minister got the European Union to renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement that the EU said to would never renegotiate. The British pound, as we expected, hit a fresh five-month high above 1.30. But after that, many buyers decided to take profits, resulting in a rebound of the pound more than 150 points down. The reason for taking profit was both about 1000 points per week, which, for example, could be earned in the GBPUSD, and fears that Brexit deal might fail again.
Parliament is expected to sit on Saturday in what could be one of the most important Commons’ sessions of the entire Brexit process. Recall ones the agreement between the EU and Great Britain was already agreed, but the country's parliament voted “against”, as a result, Teresa May resigned and everything had to start all over again. If the story repeats, then the further development of events can be quite unpredictable. That is why many decided to take profits, and it is difficult to blame them. The fact is that the current version of the treaty doesn’t quite satisfy the Irish Democratic Party. And without their support, Johnson is unlikely to gain enough votes.
As for our position, so far it is unchanged. We consider such bounces of 150 points as an excellent opportunity for purchasing. If the Parliament votes “for”, the pound will simply be doomed to further growth. It will be 200-300 points or 1000 is difficult to say, but pound purchases will live up to.
If Boris fails that will certainly trigger massive sales in pound pairs. This option must be borne in mind and do not forget to put stops. You can safely sell the pound if he loses.
The US, meanwhile, continues to show weak macroeconomic statistics. Yesterday, data on industrial production not only came out worse than forecasts below 0. The statistics on the real estate market did not please either. In general, we see an increasing number of reasons for the sale of the dollar. And today we continue to look for points to open short positions on the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Of the other statistical news, it is worth noting today's data on China's GDP. The indicator reached 6% (with a forecast 6.1%). Industrial production growth rates (went above forecasts) and retail sales (within the framework of forecasts, but in a good plus).
In this light, our recommendation to buy safe-haven assets continues to be relevant. So today we continue to look for points for purchases of gold, as well as the Japanese yen.
ORBEX:GBPUSD,EURUSD -A Real Brexit Deal, OR Another Failed Vote?In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #GBPUSD #FXMajors!
Pound Bid on Brexit agreement with EU. BoJo nee's to break DUP and opposition resistance and get deal through Parliament. Expected over the weekend!
Euro supported by positive news and despite Germany revised GDP downward. Risk appetite up in general with #Aussie, #Kiwi, #Loonie all up!
Meanwhile, the #EUSummit continues.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Britain & US "race to the top” eventfull countryThe Supreme Court has ruled that Boris Johnson suspended UK Parliament unlawfully. Also, Johnson gave the Queen illegal advice to suspend Parliament.
On the one hand, the news is not good for the pound, because it means another domestic political crisis, on the other hand, such a court decision should lead to Johnson's resignation. The pound has recently followed the rule "what is bad for Johnson, good for the pound." So from this point of view, yesterday's pound growth just looks very logical.
The weakening of Johnson’s position means a chances decrease of a “hard” Brexit. For the pound, of course, the news is exceptionally positive. So we will continue to observe with interest the chaos in Britain, but at the same time, our recommendation to “buy a pound” does not lose its relevance. However, you need to be careful.
It is worth noting buyers activation of the euro against the statistics background from Germany. Indices of economic expectations from the IFO came out better than expected at fairly good marks. However, it is still too early to rejoice. Rather, this growth provides an opportunity for euro sales at relatively good prices.
Yesterday the US dollar was under pressure in the afternoon. Weak consumer confidence data is the reason for that. Conference Board consumer confidence index showed a value of 125.1 with a forecast of 133.0 in September. Our recommendation on the dollar is unchanged - we are looking for points for the dollar sale. Moreover, the scandal surrounding Trump Zelensky’s call seems to be gaining momentum. The chances are low, but buying a dollar against such a background is still extremely dangerous, especially considering its current prices.
Yesterday, the markets were reassured by the news that China guaranteed the American soybeans purchase at no additional cost. What can be seen as a kind of positive signal on the eve of the main meeting between the US and China next week. However, judging by the dynamics of gold, investors prefer to believe the facts. Accordingly, we do not observe serious threats to our recommendations to buy gold in the area of local daily lows. Moreover, Trump once again made it tenser. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, he accused China of a good half of mortal sins.
There are no major changes in the oil market so far. Fears of another hurricane in the United States, expectations of recovery in Saudi production, as well as developments around Iran. Well, in the meantime, oil prices follow in the direction we have indicated. Recall from last Tuesday, after an increase of 15% last Monday, we recommend selling oil.
Hurricane Dorian, Trump's new tariffs & Brexit Queen approves PM`s plan. Parliament is to be suspended for five weeks ahead of 31 October, the day the UK is due to leave the EU that was perhaps, the main event. This event is unusual: the prime minister, who was not chosen, and the Queen, who was not chosen as well, blocked the work of epy supreme body, which directly selected by people and represents their interests. So we closely monitor event development in Britain.
This week we will see the continuation of an exciting series from the UK. On Tuesday, parliament will return from the summer break and will work for only a week before suspending its work, according to the Queen’s decree. A hurricane of events that is what we all are waiting for.
Events are becoming less predictable and ever larger in terms of consequences. One of the main victims, well, main beneficiaries, of course, will be the British pound. We will refrain from direct pound trading orders. However, we continue to believe in the triumph of common sense and a valuable exit, which will provoke the growth of the pound by hundreds or even thousands points. But taking into account how events are developing, it’s worth preparing for almost everything, including the classic divorce with “beating dishes”, the division of property and the courts.
As for the other important events, another uncertainty in the trade war: the parties either want negotiations or not. But at the same time, the facts show that the war is going on and even intensifying. From now on, the United States introduces new tariffs on goods from China.
Also, Extremely powerful, life-threatening Hurricane Dorian is gaining momentum and could potentially cause major damage in Florida. Tomorrow we will write in more detail how to make money on this natural phenomenon.
In general, given how uncertain and worried the world is, this week we will continue to buy safe-haven assets.
The week may well be difficult for the Australian and Canadian dollars: on Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision on the interest rate, and the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on Wednesday.
Well, the publication of statistics on the US labor market will conclude more than an eventful week. Considering that before the FOMC decision is announced, it remains just a couple of weeks, the data on the NFP may well completely change everything. But we will talk about this in more detail during the week.
As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
As for our trading preferences for this week, we note that we tend to sell the euro, avoiding trading the pound (until the current situation with the Parliament’s blocking becomes clear), buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell oil and the Russian ruble.
GBP/USD: Hot or Not ?GBP/USD: hot or not ? The trend remains downward in the short/very short term. After breaking down the static support at 1.264 identified by 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement, the next target targeted on this currency pair is the support area at 1.25. Reachable today as analysts expect a recovery of the intraday US dollar ahead of the publication of positive nonfarm payrolls.
So technically, the price should go to test the support in the 1.25 area by todays closing and, should it be violated to the downside. It could mark a new period minimum in this 2019 going beyond the 1,237.
Basically this hypothesis is the most likely in the short term as the strong uncertainty around Great Britain due to Brexit. A rebound at the moment is not expected. Except for even more expansive scenarios of monetary policy from the Fed.
To summarize
GBP/USD: hot or not ? Maybe not. We recommend a short entry on this pair. The first target is in area of 1.25. The second target is in the intermediate area at 1,244. So the final one is at 1.237.
We are preparing for European elections & referendum in the UKToday, we shall consider important topics, near future and opportunities.
Elections to the European Parliament will be held in Europe this week. (Elections will be held in 28 countries from May 23 to 26, 2019, 751 members will be elected. Those elected people will represent more than 512 million Europeans, which makes these elections the largest transnational elections in history.) The event is quite dangerous for the euro buyers. The fact is that the victory of the euro “skeptics” might cause difficulties in adopting the EU budget. And the Italian populists, with their plans to violate the EU budget deficit requirements, do not contribute to the faith growth in the bright future of the euro.
Another potential victim of election results could be the pound. It is all about the attention that has been focused on internal political squabbles and negotiations in the UK. There are two sides in Brexit process, they are the UK and the EU. However, the EU could not make a compromise and then there will be no agreement at all. And there will be a “rigid” Brexit. In this light, we continue to remind you of the risks incising working in pound pairs, especially when it comes to buying pounds.
Confirming our thesis about how is everything uncertain over the pound and Brexit, we cannot but note that British Prime Minister Theresa May will invite members of the House of Commons of the British Parliament to hold a new Brexit referendum. May wants to propose to British to decide, on their own, whether to approve her version of the deal or not, following the example of the majority of parliamentarians who have repeatedly voted against, or to abandon the idea of “divorce” altogether. Pound after the appearance of this news soared by a hundred points, but then returned to the original.
(in chronological order of publication) Inflation statistics from the UK, data on retail sales in Canada, as well as the text of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting publication, are the most interesting events.
We note that recently the Canadian dollar has strengthened in the foreign exchange market. This is due to news that the US will soon cancel duties on steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico. That is, the attitude of the markets towards the Canadian dollar is positive. So, the positive statistics on retail sales will definitely give an upward momentum to the currency of Canada. Recall that this week we recommend looking for points for buying of the Canadian dollar.
Our trading positions for today are as follows: we will look for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Long CABLE Fibonacci Level Gains Pre 20 Mar 11:30 UTC ParliamentGBP/USD will continue to pump preceding Wednesday's Questions with the Prime Minister in the House of Commons (when she is expected to introduce a third deal-agreement in regard to the UK's exit from the European Union), for this will determine: 1) whether or not the UK will as for an extension to Article 50, and 2) the extension's length of time and reasoning. 96 Pips. The European Council is set to discuss Article 50 at 15:30 (UTC+1) with a press conferece planned for 19:00 (UTC +1), and we can assume the the Council's decision in regard to the UK's request for extension will be announced.
Will Great Britain ever leave the European Union? Let's discuss A short rise before...
The price of the FTSE100 broke the resistance on the upside: now is destined to go to test the key level identified by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement place to 7340 points. From here the possibilities that continues upward past him and confirming a weekly close above are relatively low; it is more probable that, once it is brought close to that level, it reverses bringing itself again in area 7100 points.
London: in or out ?
The fundamental scenario remains unchanged: investors and markets are still trying to understand how the "Brexit" issue will develop, as for now it is not yet clear when and if Britain will actually leave the European Union. On Wednesday Prime Minister May will bring his agreement to the parliament: if he is rejected for the third time, there may be a scenario that seemed remote a few weeks month ago: the request by the EU to postpone this exit. To conclude, Theresa May said that if Parliament does not support the Brexit agreement, there is the possibility that Britain "will not leave the EU for many months, perhaps never". We will await Wednesday's developments.
What's going on with Brexit? The end of March is fast approaching so all eye should be on GBP just in case we get a big move. Here we discuss what happening in the UK Parliament this week and what the possible outcomes will be.
This is not investment advice
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Steve Nixon
Trainer & Mentor
FTSE100: NO DEAL BABY The technical side
The price has reached the EMA200 daily, key dynamic resistance for the continuation of the trend: an upward break would bring the price directly into the upper area between 7330 and 7520 points; a rejected, however, will return it to test the 6900 points.
The result of a " no deal " Brexit
In the last three sessions it seems that this second hypothesis is becoming the most plausible one: the fundamental scenario remains strongly bearish both for the English index and for the pound as for now the exit from the EU with a "No Deal", without agreement between London and Brussels, seems to be the most likely option. This will entail a series of negative consequences both at the bureaucratic and institutional level, but above all at the economic level.
Our target!
We remain strongly convinced that, if there were no significant changes, the target of the FTSE 100 from now to a month is the support placed at about 6700 points and in the short term will lateralize between 6700 and 6900 points.
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U.S. Dollar is going to drop compared to Canadian!The U.S. Dollar is going to drop compared to the Canadian dollar because of the recent election in Canada. Having the Liberal party out of the Parliament means that PC will stop the damage that was a ongoing problem with the Liberal Party. The PC party will be creating jobs and will be pulling the Canadian debt back from where it currently is as the liberals buried us in it. the liberals dropped our Dollar about 23.4% over time and that will flip with the new Party in government. So i hope you either will get out or stay in long and hope i am wrong but this is my analysis after the current Election.
- Jon Matthews
CAC40, the tricky index of the WeekIt was interesting to observe CAC40 this week. Despite the move down of DAX30, DJI, SP500, NSDQ, event Eurostoxx, CAC40 try to stick upside at a range between 44500 and 4500. MACD shows that there is no momentum, no more steam to keep CAC40 that high up. But STOCH shows that there is a try to keep it up at 4500 as if this range would be a proof of a healthy French economy which by the way is not the case. Keeping in mind that there are European Parliament elections in France on May25, I may think that CAC40 is artificially high, hold that high by French banks in order to limit the effect this could have on Front Nationale. I think that after May 25, and with the outcome of the French EP elections, CAC40 would loose serious ground.... Let's see....