AAPL, NVDA, MSFT & XPS: High-Probability Trade Setups This WeekWeekly Trade Radar & Market Outlook
This week, my focus is on AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, and XPS. There could be a potential retest of the 200 SMA with AAPL and MSFT, offering opportunities for well-structured trades. NVDA looks weak and has already tested the 200 SMA, making it a candidate for further downside potential or a short-term bounce. Additionally, Chinese developments in AI chip production remain a factor that could influence price action, particularly with NVDA. Staying aware of these key levels and macro developments is crucial for trade execution.
📚 Trading Plan: Ichimoku & 200 SMA Monthly Options Strategy**
📌 Strategy Objective
This strategy aims to capitalize on **high-probability trend-following setups** by using the **Ichimoku Cloud and 200 SMA** for confirmation while trading **monthly options contracts** to minimize time decay risks.
📀 Trading Rules
✅ 1. Entry Timing Rules (Your 3 Golden Rules)**
🚫 **No trading on Mondays** (Avoid weekend gaps & false breakouts).
🚫 **No trading on Fridays** (Avoid weekend time decay & volatility).
⏳ **No trades before the first 15-minute candle closes** (Avoid market noise).
📊 Setup & Trade Criteria
🔹 2. Trend Confirmation Using Ichimoku & 200 SMA
Bullish (Call Trade) Criteria:
✅ **Price is above the 200 SMA** (bullish bias).
✅ **Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud** (strong uptrend).
✅ **Tenkan-sen is above Kijun-sen** (momentum confirmation).
✅ **Chikou Span is above price from 26 candles ago** (historical trend alignment).
✅ **Future Cloud is green** (trend continuation signal).
Bearish (Put Trade) Criteria:
✅ **Price is below the 200 SMA** (bearish bias).
✅ **Price is below the Ichimoku Cloud** (strong downtrend).
✅ **Tenkan-sen is below Kijun-sen** (momentum confirmation).
✅ **Chikou Span is below price from 26 candles ago** (historical trend alignment).
✅ **Future Cloud is red** (trend continuation signal).
🔹 3. Entry Triggers (After First 15-Min Candle Closes)**
**Bullish (Call Trade) Entry:**
- Price pulls back to **Kijun-sen** and holds support, then starts to bounce.
- OR price **breaks above the Ichimoku Cloud** and holds.
- ✅ Enter **Call contract (monthly expiration)**.
**Bearish (Put Trade) Entry:**
- Price pulls back to **Kijun-sen**, rejects resistance, and starts falling.
- OR price **breaks below the Ichimoku Cloud** and holds.
- ✅ Enter **Put contract (monthly expiration)**.
🔹 4. Selecting the Right Option Contract
✅ Monthly expiration contract (third Friday of the month).
✅ 30-60 days to expiry (avoid rapid theta decay).
✅ Strike Price:
- **ATM (At-The-Money) or slightly ITM (In-The-Money)**.
- Delta between **0.55 – 0.70** for balance between premium & movement.
✅ Liquidity Criteria:
- **Open Interest > 1,000** for easy fills.
- **Tight bid-ask spread** (<$0.10 on liquid stocks).
🎯 Risk Management & Trade Management**
🔹 5. Stop Loss & Take Profit Rules**
Stop Loss (SL):
🔴 For Calls: Below the Kijun-sen or most recent swing low.
🔴 For Puts: Above the Kijun-sen or most recent swing high.
Take Profit (TP):
✅ First Target: At the opposite edge of the Ichimoku Cloud.
✅ Second Target: Key support/resistance level based on price action.
✅ If profit reaches 70-80% max potential, close early** to avoid theta decay.
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🔹 6. Trade Adjustments**
🔄 Rolling:If trade is profitable near expiry but hasn’t hit full target, roll to next monthly contract.
🔄 Cutting Losses: Exit early if price **closes inside the Ichimoku Cloud** (loss of trend strength).
📊 Trade Example: Bullish Call Play**
- Stock:** AAPL
- Current Price:** $190
- Bias: Price is above 200 SMA and Ichimoku Cloud
- Entry Trigger:** Price pulls back to Kijun-sen and bounces
- Option Contract:
- Expiry: **Next monthly contract (e.g., July 19 expiration)**
- Strike: **$190 ATM Call**
- Delta: **0.60**
- Bid/Ask Spread: **$2.00 / $2.05**
- Entry Price: $2.05
- Stop Loss: Below Kijun-sen (~$187)
- Take Profit:
- First TP at $195 (Cloud resistance)
- Final TP at $200 key resistance
🔹 7. Why This Strategy Works?**
✅ **Avoids weak setups by following strict entry rules**.
✅ **Uses monthly contracts to avoid rapid time decay**.
✅ **Combines trend-following confirmation from Ichimoku & 200 SMA**.
✅ **Ensures liquidity & better risk management with ATM/ITM options**.
📀 Final Notes
🔹 Only trade **Tuesday to Thursday** to avoid low-probability days.
🔹 Wait for **first 15-minute candle to close** before entering.
🔹 Stick to **monthly contracts** for better theta control.
🔹 **Follow trend confirmation rules strictly**—no guessing.
Turning a Small Trading Account into a Side Hustle for Financial Freedom
Imagine having a skill that allows you to generate income from anywhere, with nothing more than your phone, iPad, or laptop. No need for an expensive setup, no need for hours glued to a screen, and no need to risk everything on a single trade. This is the power of trading options with a small account—starting with as little as $500 and scaling up over time to create financial security, eliminate debt, and build leverage for larger investments.
Weekly Trade Radar & Market Outlook
This week, my focus is on AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, and XPS. There could be a potential retest of the 200 SMA with AAPL and MSFT, offering opportunities for well-structured trades. NVDA looks weak and has already tested the 200 SMA, making it a candidate for further downside potential or a short-term bounce. Additionally, Chinese developments in AI chip production remain a factor that could influence price action, particularly with NVDA. Staying aware of these key levels and macro developments is crucial for trade execution.
Trading Method: Ichimoku Cloud & 200 SMA Strategy
For trade setups, I rely on a combination of the Ichimoku Cloud and the 200 SMA to confirm entries and exits. This system provides a structured approach to trading by identifying trend direction, support and resistance levels, and potential breakouts.
Identify the Trend – The 200 SMA serves as the key trend indicator. If price is above, we look for long opportunities; if below, short setups take priority.
Ichimoku Confirmation – Price action should align with the cloud structure:
Bullish trades: Price above the cloud with strong momentum.
Bearish trades: Price below the cloud with confirmation of weakness.
Entry Timing – Trades are entered after the first 15-minute candle closes to avoid early market volatility. No trades on Mondays or Fridays to maintain consistency and avoid false breakouts.
Monthly Options Contracts – Focusing on monthly expirations allows for strategic entries with enough time for price movements to develop.
Risk Management – Stop losses are set just below key Ichimoku or 200 SMA levels, ensuring a disciplined risk-reward ratio.
How This Can Work as a Side Hustle
Many people look for side hustles to supplement their income, but most involve long hours, additional expenses, or require significant effort to scale. Trading options, however, offers:
✅ Minimal time commitment – With the right plan, you spend less than an hour per day analyzing and placing trades.
✅ Low startup cost – Start with as little as $500 and build from there.
✅ No physical inventory or overhead – You don’t need to buy and store products.
✅ Scalability – As your account grows, you can increase contract size and compound gains.
✅ Financial freedom potential – The profits from consistent, disciplined trading can be used to pay off debt, invest, or build long-term wealth.
The Power of Leverage: Using Trading to Build Wealth
The ultimate goal of trading isn’t just to make a little extra cash—it’s to create financial leverage. Here’s how smart traders use small account growth to create lasting financial success:
1️⃣ Get Out of Debt – Use profits to pay off credit cards, student loans, or other financial burdens. Imagine the freedom of being debt-free.
2️⃣ Reinvest in Larger Opportunities – Once your small account grows, you can scale up your trades, fund larger investments, or even start a business.
3️⃣ Build a Safety Net – Having extra cash flow from trading can serve as an emergency fund, helping you navigate life’s unexpected challenges.
4️⃣ Create a Path to Full-Time Trading – For those who love the process, this side hustle can evolve into a primary source of income over time.
It’s About Discipline, Not Just Trading
The key to successful trading isn’t the market—it’s you.
Many traders fail because they lack the discipline to follow a system. This approach isn’t just about making money; it’s about becoming the kind of person who can execute a plan without emotion, without impulsiveness, and without shortcuts.
Success in trading mirrors success in life: patience, discipline, and consistency always win.
Getting Started – No Excuses
You don’t need a fancy setup. You don’t need to be a finance expert. You just need a phone, iPad, or laptop, a brokerage account (I use Robinhood for its simplicity), and a commitment to mastering a system that works.
If you’re looking for a low-stress, high-reward way to build financial security, trading options with a small account might be the perfect opportunity. It’s time to take control of your future—one trade at a time.
