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BTC scenario for next few monthsBTC recently broke the bear flag. In my previous analysis, I pointed out that this would happen, however I expected BTC to have relief rallies between the trendlines before finally falling to 28k. There is a wick to 25k which was possibly accentuated by the tether depeg. The average crypto bear market from bull cycle top to bear cycle low is typically 1 year. If it works the same way this time, the low will be produced around November 2022- January 2023 before BTC will move upwards and then surge in the next halving for 2024. This scenario is in line with previous bear markets where BTC plummets, then chops sideways for months and finally capitulates to produce an absolute bottom near the 200 WMA. This has always coincided with an RSI of 30 or slightly less on the weekly, or an RSI of 43 on the monthly and BTC is currently close to these levels. We can expect BTC in this scenario to trade between 28-37k, perhaps until November where it could drop dramatically to 20-24k and finally find an absolute bottom. As usual past data is never an accurate predictor of future events, so this is just being put forward as a possibility. If you agree or enjoyed this idea, please press the like button. Thanks.
by Rookxb8
USDCAD DAILY (11/5/22)Here we have usdcad in a uptrend channel where it has only made 3 touches so far. we did get a breakout of this channel but price was able to give us solid bullish candles to get back in and close within the channel giving us a fake out (Highlighted in graph). This fake out also gave us the 4 touch of an inner channel which has also given us a flag pole formation. I believe that UC has the potential to reach between 1.341 & 1.351. I will post analysis of lower time frame in the next post.
Long
by J_Pipsfx
Hartley PatternsHello everyone Today we will talk about another method of analysis that will help you bring significant profits. Let's go! Introduction H.M. Hartley in 1935 in the book "Profit on the stock market" for the first time revealed Hartley's patterns. Gatli patterns are used in technical analysis and are based on Fibonacci values. The patterns are reversal patterns and have clear rules and an excellent profit-to-risk ratio. Hartley patterns work better than most well-known graphic formations, which also use different Fibonacci levels, but not as clearly as in Hartley patterns. Designations Hartley decided to designate waves with 5 letters for simplicity: The letter X - is the beginning of the trend; The letter A - is the end of the trend; The letter B - is the first pullback of the trend; The letter C - is a rollback correction (not breaking through the level of point A); The letter D - is the target of the letter C. The zones for the letters B, C, D are determined using the Fibonacci ratio between XA and AB. Patterns are divided into types and have their own names, in addition, patterns work for any direction of the market. Let's take a closer look at the patterns. Bat Pattern formation: the price reaches the maximum/minimum of the XA wave and forms a point B at the Fibonacci correction level from 38.2 to 50%. Using the XA points, you can find the value of the D point, which usually tends to the Fibonacci retracement level of 88.6% relative to XA. In this case, CD is most often longer than the segment AB. Butterfly When wave B finishes its formation at the Fibonacci retracement level of 78.68%, they talk about the formation of a Butterfly pattern. At the same time, the target for wave D will be values beyond XA and will be 1.27-1.618 XA. Crab This pattern is formed when the price touches and bounces off the maximum/minimum of the XA oscillation and forms a point B at the Fibonacci correction level from 38.2-61.8%. The goal of point D is outside the original segment XA and is 1,618 XA Simplifying pattern identification With careful study of patterns, it can be noticed that the formation of patterns depends on the location of wave B in relation to XA. Apart from the drivers and 5-0 patterns, there is an easier way to identify the remaining patterns. Let's divide the values of wave B by Fibonacci levels. 1) 38.2%: Bat, crab 2) 50%: Bat, crab 3) 61.8%: Bat, crab, AB = CD 4) 78.6%: Butterfly 5) 88.6%: Deep crab. If you see one of these values, you can understand which pattern is being formed. For example, if you see on the chart that the price reaches the level of 50%, then you can expect a Bat or crab figure. To calculate where the point C will be, you can use Fibonacci levels relative to the point AB: on 38,2%, 50%, 61,8%, 78,6 % and 88.6%. Now let's define goal D. 1) Bat: 88.6% Fibo HA or 2,618 BC 2) Alternative Bat: 113% Fibo XA (below X) OR 2.0 BC 3) Crab: 161.8% Fibo (below X) OR 3.14 BC 4) Hartley: 78.6% Fibo HA or 1.27 BC 5) Butterfly: 161.8% Fibo (below X) OR 1.618 BC 6) Deep Crab: 161.8% Fibo (below X) OR 2,618 BC. How to trade? It is necessary to open a position at the level, on a confirmation signal or on an impulse breakdown, using pending orders at Fibo levels. Confirmation – in this case, you should wait for the reversal candlestick pattern at the Fibonacci level. Breakdown – in this case, the price bounces off the Fibonacci level and breaks through the trend line in the expected direction. It is worth paying attention to the following clarifications: trading on wave B goes in the direction of the trend, but with a limited purpose (on the letter C). Wave C trading is counter-trend trading, but with a good profit-to-risk ratio (with a goal on the letter D). Trading on the letter D can be considered as trading in the direction of the trend (very close to the support and resistance levels) and also with a good profit-to-risk ratio (the target can be the top in an uptrend, the bottom in a downtrend or any Fibonacci level of the CD segment). These patterns are quite common, and the success rate is quite high. Use the patterns correctly and they will bring you a lot of profit. Good luck! Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Education
by Lingrid
11
Oil setting up at a break higher? Hi trading view community, hopefully, a great weekend was had by all. Looking at oil on the 4H chart today, we see a few signs that buyers are trying to get the trend going again. First, we can see that 108.49 resistance has started to become support. Price continues to consolidate, but that consolidation continues to form an ascending triangle pattern. (AT patterns in uptrends can be a sign that buyers could resume the trend if they can confirm a breakout) Lastly, the lowest on our list is that the CCI has moved back above the 0 line. When the CCI is above the 0 line this can indicate that price is in a bullish zone. From here, we would like to see buyers prove they hold momentum with a break of the pattern. If we do see a confirmation and a new leg higher, we will be watching to see if 116 comes back in as resistance. Failure to break the ascending triangle pattern and or a move back below 108.49 would start us to question buyer strength. Good trading.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Eightcap
Large head and shoulders on Bitcoin MonthlyI have been unhappy with the projections of where Bitcoin is headed. Nobody seems to really know. There seems to be a heavy sentiment of downward, capitulation and some of the usual calls for ATH, which makes sense but I haven’t seen a pattern that looks strong. On the monthly I noticed a pattern that I like. The 5 EMA (yellow) - is about to make the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern. It is an interesting pattern because it is neither capitulation, nor is it new all-time high. Price would need to climb to about 57000 to fully form the shoulder before it drops. This is my first idea so thanks for reading.
Long
by Xylitor
1
ETH Bearish WeekThis the new entry level for ETH. We setting up a Head & Shoulder, - Broken counter-trend. - Retesting the back end of that CT. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: If / When you are taking these trades, please trade responsibly for yourself and your account. It's key to use proper stops, some can even be tight (but not toooo tight) in some cases, depending on your entry. Good luck.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by BlkGekko
CADCHF Watching For A Buy TradeHey Purpose Trade I pray all is well with you today. Let's talk about CADCHF. CADCHF is creating higher highs and lows on the daily timeframe. I do not want to sell against this trend on the daily timeframe so I am anticipating a buy as long as price can stay above 0.74733. No sells are in my view on this pair. My next Take Profit will be back up to daily highs and beyond. This will be a short term swing trade I will hold for a few days. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. If you have questions or care to comment feel free to do so. Please be kind as kindness is free and good for the heart. Safe trading this week. ----------------------- Beware of scammers impersonating me. I will never contact you first on my official platforms to sell you anything. Nor do I ask for you to open an account and deposit money for me to trade. I am an educational educator only.
Long
by ShaquanLopez
XAUUSD - GOLD - At critical level!!A look at OANDA:XAUUSD this week and we find that we are still looking for more down side. There has been a 120+ point drop into 1872 and the first decent rally back has seen it stop right on the 382 and fall away into the 50-61.8% area from that rally. We are now at the point where we have 2 options. 1. It continues lower from here towards 1820-1830 completing the bigger pattern @ the 61.8% level from last years August low. 2. It bounces up from here back to the 1950 area where it would turn to create another ABCD pattern finishing at the 1820-1830 area again. The other option is that we break those levels and head towards the high 1700s, but I will look at that later once we get the info in to make that call. Also on May the 9th there is a Major CIT window which is likely to decide the direction for the rest of the month. So a move up into that time would start the move lower and a move lower into that date would see a reversal higher. Something to keep an eye on over the coming weeks. I hope this helps. Enjoy the week!! 👍👍
OANDA:XAUUSD
by L_F
1
Market Unpredictability This is a perfect example of the market sometimes not going your way. I shorted on the first bearish flag thinking of course that this is one of the strongest indicators of market direction and I got burned (lost a little money). My mistake: Not looking for other signals. In this case the 20ema crossed over 50ema sending the price up. Sometimes you have to look at more than 1 indicator or pattern, this isn't always the case but it is better to have 2 signals than one. The second time both the indicator and chart pattern aligned perfectly together and as a result the market dropped as expected. I want to be clear that you should never jump back in so fast in a trade, personally after a loosing trade I step back for a day or two or trade another pair. But in this case the analysis was strong and it led me to some profits. The market is always going to do what it wants, all we can do is analyze, prepare our risk management and execute.
by Tradingday22
4
Bitcoin Pump - What does this mean for BTC?Hello Traders! First off, If you have any questions feel free to comment or message me. I know trading can be difficult and I would rather you message me about a trade setup than make a mistake and lose out. I'm pretty good about replying so I'll try and get back to you as quick as I can! **As I'm sure you are aware, Bitcoin had a nice pump today from the $38K region almost up to $41K at the time of this post. And I bet you're wondering what the heck does this mean for BTC?! - Well the truth is, we really don't know yet... - With trading you want to see clearly defined chart formations, patterns, directional bias, levels hit, etc. As of right now on the micro we really don't have a clear picture. - It's hard to make a high probability prediction for the micro when BTC is ranging like this. **So then how to we make an accurate prediction in a situation like this!? - When you have no clear direction bias on the micro, the easiest way to try and make sense of it all is to zoom out and take a look at the Macro time frame. - Look at the 4 Hour and/or Daily chart and analyze the chart from the macro perspective. **What's next for BTC? - Zooming out we can see that BTC has been in an overall downtrend, creating lower lows along the way. - This morning BTC was sitting below the support level it's been trading on for the past week or so, it broke above today (which is bullish) however if it closes back below it on the daily that is another bearish signal. - Since January on the macro BTC has been trading in a Bear Flag formation (Bearish) and since the $48K high a couple weeks ago has been nearly in a non stop downtrend. - 16 of the last 19 days have been Red! - Without going into too much more detail, the fact remains... the probabilities favor further downside continuation. **Now it's possible that BTC continues this rally for a couple more days, but until the 50MA + the $43K local resistance is broken and confirmed above, BTC is Bearish and expect downside continuation. ^^Possible Position Entries^^ - Right now I am not in any open positions, I'm waiting to see what happens over the coming days. - 2 Levels that I have my eyes on are the $43K resistance for a possible short, and the $37K support for a possible long. --Final Note-- - The analysis that I do are for the current market conditions at the time of creating the posts. The market changes on a daily basis and so do the trades/setups that I post. I will try to start and add any invalidating factors or create an update post for any trade setups that are no longer valid. Best of Luck Trading!
by natef1
2
US30 - BreakdownUS30: My bias on US30 is short markets. This idea is supported by the Corrective Phase that we are currently trading in, in the W1 timeframe down to the D1 timeframe. On the H4 timeframe, I'm able to see even a much more more bigger structure, as I've applied pattern separation; I am able to see that price has broken the middle section and shooting for the lowest low. However, I'll only participate in this trade when the market presents for me a correction in form of a continuation pattern. Like, and Comment your thoughts !
OANDA:US30USD
by Londanii
ETHUSDT is testing the weekly support The price bounced to 0.618 Fibonacci level on the daily timeframe (2900) and now the market is testing the previous daily support case for new resistance. on 4h Timeframe, the price created two M patterns and the price is testing the second neckline above the 3100 How to approach? IF the price is going to lose the weekly support and retest it as new resistance According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order Be aware to False breakout ––––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Short
by InkyGrip
4
Ethereum Bearish Case - Next Target $2,700?Hello Traders... Here is my technical analysis for Ethereum. -1st) As you know ETH's performance depends upon BTC for the most part. In the short term I'm expecting BTC to bounce to $42,300 roughly. In which case ETH would probably bounce as well and invalidate this TA. But in the case that BTC does not bounce and drops to $36K-$37K, the probabilities favor ETH following this trajectory. -To start, ETH played out the bear flag I spoke about the other day beautifully, exactly as expected. That but only confirmed ETH's bearish momentum. There are many more signals that are giving me the opinion that the next target for ETH will be about $2,700. -I won't go into too much detail, you can view my notes on the chart above. The main things to note are: 1) ETH has been trending between a descending channel. If this trend continues it will lead straight to that Major support at $2,700. 2) ETH closed below the EMA 50 which is a strong Bearish signal. 3) ETH closed below a minor support line. The fact that support line didn't hold and ETH easily broke through signals that the bears are in control. 4) Lastly, there really aren't any strong support lines between where price is now and $2,700. If ETH starts to trend down there will be nothing major to stop ETH from hitting the $2,700 level. Once the bears take control it won't be difficult for them to drive price down until the bulls step back in at the $2,700 major level. -Either way however ETH gets there I"m expecting it to hit the $2,700 level in the near future. -What can we expect from ETH at that level? -More than likely I will open a long position once ETH hits that level. The probabilities should favor ETH getting at least a 5% - 7% bounce and potentially more. Happy Trading and Good Luck!
by natef1
5
How To : Chart Formations Critical Second Top & Bottom Entry Hi Traders and Investors This video is a follow up from my previous posting dealing with shifts of momentum. This time we are looking to add an additional synergy - the second touch in a chart formation - which can be found in Double Tops, Double Bottoms and head shoulder formations. Correctly using the second touch on the chart formations has allowed me to avoid many mistakes in my evaluating my trades and I hope that it will help you in evaluating your trades. When you look at the Double Top and Double Bottom chart formations, you will notice that high frequency trading and algorithms trading will often create the formation of a second top to the same level as the first top or slightly higher by taking stops pilling at the first top . At this point, you want to wait for the synergies to come into play and use your tools to look for a shift in momentum on the 2nd top touch see video. Waiting for the shift in momentum to occurs after the second touch, is a critical piece of of information that will prevent you from taking trades that are likely to be stopped out on the first test. Hope it helps have a great week end Marc
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by PowerIndicators
9
#BTC/USDT 1D UPDATE BY Trader_SL #BTC/USD Chart Update 2022/04/13 1D TIME FRAME As you see in the chart, BTC is trading inside a rising channel and currently sitting at the lower level of the channel. In the past scenarios, we have seen BTC bounce many times after hitting the lower level of this channel also we can see Bitcoin now is with hidden bullish divergence So I'm expecting a bounce in the market from this level and making another Higher low. If any daily candle closes below this channel then this scenario becomes invalidated. Let's see. I'll update you. This is not a piece of financial advice. Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you!
by Trader_SL1
2