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Bitcoin Nearing Target Date and Time - Pullback ImminentMy current projection exists within the "Price, Time, Pattern" boundaries of analysis. As I see it, geopolitical events (worldwide but especially in the U.S.) are expected to ramp up. Some chaos and civil unrest may ensue. This will greatly impact the broader markets negatively. Bitcoin, which currently rides in tandem with the broader markets, will also become effected. But not to the same degree. More on that in a bit. This aspect of my prediction coincides with the "Time" portion. I expect everything to culminate on or before Jan 6-8 of 2021. Correlating to the "Time" maker, we are also seeing Pattern(s) on the chart indicating an imminent future reversal: a nearing to the 1.618 Fib marker, ascending wedge, declining bull volume (though great, still declining), and overbought markers on our RSI chart are all indicating at least a short term pull back could be coming. Though, we are seeing massive amounts of wealth being moved into the crypto market (and it will continue), I do expect a pause of this action coming into January as geopolitical events in the U.S. continue to escalate. Much of the events that are about to take place will catch the majority of Americans by surprise. You will begin to see the VIX (fear index) spike. That will be the trigger alarm for things to come. If we do begin to draw back, the following price points should be considered for entry or re-entry: 19891, 17146, 12,927. Of course, since the market will be directed mostly by geopolitical events, how low it goes depends largely upon how much fear can be generated by these events and by how much the broader markets are effected. Again, though I do see crypto being impacted, I don't see it being impacted to the same degree, as crypto is now starting to be seen as another safe space for cash. As always, do NOT ever allow your emotions to sway your trades. Sit back and think this thing out logically, rationally, and reasonably. Crypto is here to stay. And, of course, Bitcoin, the big dog, will continue to lead them all. You are not wrong to stay in the market and HODL. You are also not wrong to begin cashing out on some portion of your investments here if you have been brave enough to hold this long. No-one knows the future, including me. The insight I give is purely based upon the data that I have aggregated thus far. I use it to help point me towards future events. You don't have to accept it, but I hope you will at least consider it and use it to help you make healthy trading choices into the future. Happy trading all!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
2
short position - will it close or not?Now I do not understand which patterns and charts should be traded. Since I entered a short position, only because the price was at the border of this triangle. and everything, absolutely everything spoke about the reduction of this TF. but how to say - the price just "skyrocketed". This position has not yet been closed, but with such a trade it can be closed quickly))))) Why did I enter a short position 1) We had a descending triangle , which at 89% is always punched to the bottom (we hit just 11%) 2) we had a rising channel , which is also impulsively broken down, if there is no volume , and the price is growing 3) sales were overweight, even this growth is a complete deception 4) FOR almost 4 years of my trading, I see such a trade for the first time, because rsi - 84% on the monthly TF. For all indicators, overbought, only BITCOIN GREEDE is 93% which indicates growth))))) Growth without any correction to certain values ​​(returns) Not working out the levels, the Order Book flies as if it were not there. The number of longs, uncovered gaps, Breakout of all levels without a 25-30% correction, and much more ... I am very interested in how much the price will still rise, and what will happen next, I am very interested in the result of this growth, since this is the first time in my life))))))) I close this deal from the same price of 23830, because I need to rest and gain strength, review the market, and evaluate what is happening in a different way!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn13204076
Bitcoin Growing UpAs Bitcoin matures we have seen it through it's toddler years and the early adopters. I purchased in 2013 but was not that aware of the potential. Then we experienced the 2017 FOMO run and another collapse as we had a great shake out of the crap altcoins. Now however we have the Banks and Wealthy looking to own BTC. With a breakout of the 20,000 mark there is NO overhead resistance, no old pain waiting for a breakeven. This is blue sky, the banks want in and the wealthy, the masses will be slow and come in late like normal. It will be great if it builds a new bse off the 20K breakout. This will allow a bigger move up. This project to over $32,000 is based on the monthly cup formation and the macd looks strong. I used July with the current sloping trendline and expect it to hit this by year end of 2021 but could be there much sooner.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Vince
2
Why multi-month patterns are more successful (SPOT)It is easy to get caught up in the idea of getting a bunch of small winners is the best way to grow an account. This is because of the rush you get when a win occurs. The more often it happens the better you feel. In reality, this works against the trader's odds because you have to win more often and have to be more accurate. What I want to focus on are the long term patterns. over the course of several months. These trades tend to net more profit and cause less stress for the investor because they take less maintenance and effort to trade. The win ratio can be smaller on these trades because the profit is larger. This chart of Spotify (SPOT) is a perfect example of a macro (long-term) multi-month chart patterns that paid out huge profits. This ticker has had a history of macro breakouts most recently a few days ago. The price really follows the moving averages well and consolidated under a clear price of 292. There are a few things you want to look for when trading macro patterns. 1. clear support and resistance lines. in this case, 292 is resistance, and 245 is support. These levels are easily marked and tracked. One could even buy at support for these trades and sell closer to resistance. 2. Volume is king. A low volume name is never going to leave its range. SPOT has tons of volume being a tech name that has huge popularity. I usually look for names that have one million in shares volume per day. 3. For a breakout to be confirmed it needs to attempt the resistance price AT LEAST 3 times. The third time is important because it's a psychological tipping point for most traders and algos. I like to refer to these as layers of probability. The more you have the more likely a trade is to work in your favor.
NYSE:SPOT
by The_Level_Two
2
Documenting Your Trades (For Fun and Profit)How do you document your trades? In a spreadsheet? In a trading journal? Directly on the chart? How much is too much? How little is not enough? I say you need to document enough to tell the story properly. Every trade tells a story. As with all good stories you have a protagonist and an antagonist. Good guys and bad guys. The hero and the villain. And then, there's the journey. In the markets you are the hero and the market is the villain. One way I make trading "fun" and what helps me "tell the story of the trade" is to "Trade Like a Pirate" and use the vocabulary of Jack Sparrow. I have already written on this topic when it comes to analyzing profit targets (seizing treasure and plunder) but let's look at how we learn what we did on a trade by trade basis. When you do an after-the-trade analysis (what I call a postmortem) you should be able to see what you did right, what you could have done better, but most importantly, what you may have done wrong; not to beat yourself up, but to make sure that you *never* make that mistake or repeat that behavior again. (Fool me once, shame on you... fool me twice, shame on me!) For instance, I once lost three trades in a row and asked "How the heck did that happen?" and later when I looked at the actual trade screenshots I realized that both my trading timeframe and trend timeframe was the same! Somehow instead of having my charts on the 60-15 minute charts they were *both* 15 and I realized if I had my chart timeframes right I would have never entered those particular trades, saving me from experiencing those losing positions. Thanks to those trades, though, and thanks to my post-mortem analysis, the first item on my "pre-flight checklist" is now "Verify Trade Timeframes." Thanks to journaling and the postmortem process I'm *never* going to make *that* mistake again. But what about the *psychology* of the trade? *Why* did you enter it, *what* were you thinking once you were in it, *why* did you adjust your stop, *why* did you choose your target, *what* might you have done out of fear that got you out of the trade early or prevented you from realizing as much profit as you could have? Journaling your trade, or documenting the trade *properly* will help you with that. In the example above you can see a recent trade that presented itself to me and my pirate "Crew" in the Gasoline Futures market. I talk about the "weather conditions" before getting into the trade (the wind and the tide), other environmental factors like the "shark feeding frenzy area" helping me decide where I will target my profit (there be treasure *here*), what was going on when the trade actually entered, and finally, managing the trade to my target. In addition, during the postmortem I found an opportunity where if I had used a trailing stop, I could have gotten an additional 42% profit, or 'treasure'. As I mentioned in my Backtesting series, one of the reasons you backtest is that through repetition, you can often find patterns in your system that will prompt you to tweak it to either *improve* results or *eliminate* inefficiencies. In this same manner, through repetition in documenting your trades you may very well find a pattern of behavior that is holding you back from your full potential. For example, In the trade above, after securing 3R, (the minimum I am willing to take in a trade), if I followed price using my trailing stop strategy instead of a target, I found that I could have made an additional 2-3R profit. What if after documenting 20, 30, 40+ trades I find a similar pattern, that I am often "leaving money on the table"? I can then test several exit strategies to see which ones would give me the biggest bang for my buck and increase my R per trade. The other big benefit of having your trade journal "tell a story" rather than "state facts" is you begin to *personify* the market and see it as someone who exhibits certain behavior patterns, and that is what the markets present to us every day: PATTERNS. And if you can determine someone's patterns, you can predict their behavior. If I know that whenever my wife is browsing through a jewelry catalog and consistently goes "ooh" or "aah" over earrings with blue stones in them, I can guess with a high degree of accuracy that if I buy her a set of sapphire earrings she (and consequently*I*) will be a happy person. Likewise, if I can predict with a high degree what "Mister Market" is going to do based on certain patterns, I can keep setting sail, with confidence, day after day and see gains in my trading account (which makes me, my crew, and most importantly the missus, HAPPY! (Because when momma's happy, everybody's happy!). Trade well! (And Journal Well!) PS: Let me know how your journaling journey goes in the comments! I'd love to know how it "upped your trading game!" You can only improve what you analyze! -Anthony
NYMEX:RBF2021Education
by ocaptain
8
BTC's highway to the moon... Bullish indicatorsRecently I've been analyzing charts on higher TFs and finding these parallel channels that the PA dances around and respects to varying degrees over time. BTC is no different. You can add more and more layers of channels on smaller TF, but for now I just wanted to point out these typically bullish indicators appearing on the 12HR: Possible Inverse Head & Shoulders Bull Flag which it's currently trading in Above all major MAs Respecting the ascending channel-- or, as I like to call it, BTC's "highway to the moon" ;) We shall see... Happy trades CD PS: I think maybe this is what Gann Fans are for? I haven't used them yet but I'll check em out.
Long
by cryptodonovan
TARGET REACHED - PULLBACK IMMINENT?Hello Traders, Quick post to update. We've reached our $17,146 target. It is my comfort level to take most of my profits here. For those who are more risk adverse, you may decide to hold. I do not feel comfortable holding any longer. My target of $17,146 AND $17,784 were both reached and we are overextending ourselves here, IMO. RSI is overbought and we're well above our 9 month channel. If I was a betting man, I'd say a pullback to a range somewhere within or around that channel is imminent. Though, I didn't get past predictions exactly right in terms of timing (and I did miss one lower level target), almost all of my targets have been nailed. I don't want to push my luck. We are on a good winning streak here. Finally, an extremely significant development has taken place since my last post. You will notice that Huge Line of Resistance. Previously, that was our overhead resistance for over 2 years. We have broken through that. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY BULLISH TREND! And for this reason, I had hesitated making this post suggesting a shorter term pullback. Our pullback may not happen. The bulls are very strong here. However, until they are able to break above (and confirm) our $17,784 marker on the daily, I will continue to suggest a near terms (within a month) pullback. I will be looking to go long again as we come back into our 9 MONTH CHANNEL. Hope this helps some of you. Happy trading all!
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by stewdamus
analysis EUhello traders, there was hardly any set up lately in the EU however, there was a big buy, but some of us missed the opportunity. So therefore, I have multiple bias of ideas for you guys to see and look at. Highly recommended for you guys to wait at least 2 hours for the candle to close to make your decision. You can see it was making HH and HL. During this time I do not see any of the candle making LH yet. waiting time. Once it broke structure then you would look for sell opportunities , if not look for buys opportunities. thank you for reading!
by MonaySess