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Pause

Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard. The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”. Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD. The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation. Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945. The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
DXY Outlook FOMC Prep 14th JuneWill the Federal Reserve finally decide to pause on further rate hikes, keeping interest rates at 5.25%, or will the Feds hike rates one final time to take rates to 5.50%? There has been much speculation about the likely outcome of the US FOMC regarding its interest rate decision. Especially with the most recent CPI data being released at 4.0% (Expected 4.1% Previous 4.9%) a significant slowdown in inflation growth is being witnessed and it is likely to play towards encouraging the Feds to pause on further hikes. Although the June unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%, the NFP was still significantly stronger than expected at 339k. There are several technical analysis factors applying the downward pressures on the DXY, in particular, the downward trendline, 50MA and the 103.40 resistance level. If the Feds does pause on rates, I'd be looking for the DXY to trade down to the support area of 102.80 and 103, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
Dollar Hits Support. Now Bounce. Everything Else? Pulls Back.Traders, I said it all in the title. Yes, the dollar has now conclusively formed a very ominous Head and Shoulders pattern. The dollar will die once (not if) it breaks that neckline. But do I think that is going to happen immediately. I think you all know the answer. News has hinted at a Fed rate hike pause this week. Next week another news story will come out. I think caution is warranted here. Personally, I'm going to sit the sideline this weekend and play it safe. There will always be more opportunity in the future. Always. Best, Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
2
The FED HAS already pivoted! Who cares what the FED does next?Apologies for the click-baity title, but I did want to get your attention to make (once again) my point that inflation is ON now and that the FED has actually pivoted while many are watching and don't see it that way. Let me explain. Back when the FED started raising rates rapidly I grew worried that at this unprecedented pace of rate hikes, something would break. I stated this all along through each of my post. Foolish people and businesses simply do not have the acumen to hedge against the rapidity of dried-up liquidity in the markets. I did not know the banks would become the first culprit exposed in their foolish investment endeavors. But here we are. Banks are failing because of their own stupidity and guess who gets to pay for it once again? That's right, you and I do through the continued devaluation of our U.S. dollar. "But the dollar's getting stronger", you emphatically retort. Yes. It was. As the FED moved to increase rates in a reactionary manner, as they always are, the dollar did gain strength and is currently fairly strong, relatively speaking. However, things will soon change and many do not even know it as they are focused on the wrong indicator, FED rate hike action and future interest rates. While this is certainly still important, it does not tell the whole story. As you know, I have been calling for a pause or pivot from the FED soon. That pivot has already come. "How so?", you asked. The FED has not articulated strong indicative language regarding a pause or pivot. That's true. But while the banks were failing, the FED did begin to guarantee depositors their money due to 'systemic risks'. I've heard this before (think 2008 and the BIG 3). In guaranteeing depositors their funds, the FED mushroomed its balance sheet by roughly $300 billion dollars last week alone! And this may just be the beginning! Incredible. This is the pivot that I was looking for from the FED. So, while everyone else continues to focus on what the FED will do next in terms of interest rates, savvy investors have already spotted the change and recognize that it's now inflation ON! This subtle (or not so subtle, pending perspective) change in direction correlates with three important thesis points that I have been making all along: That something will break That the FED will pause/pivot That we will see a blowoff top in the US stock market It also aligns with current technicals. As you can observe from the chart above, price action has retested our macro-downtrend line precisely as anticipated, has bounced from there as anticipated, and is currently trending up as anticipated. I do believe this is the beginning of our blowoff top with a price target of US500 to be at or around $5,500 to $6k by early to late fall. Maybe early winter. Timing is difficult. Best to you all, Stew
ULong
by stewdamus
2
'RESUME' the trend journey via 'PAUSE' candleWe all have experienced the 'TRAIN' journey and similar to that in the stock market we have the 'TREND' journey. In the 'TRAIN' journey we have stoppages in between our destination called stations and like in the 'TREND' journey we have stoppages called levels. And then, among the levels, the most frustrating one is 'pause' where stock price show opposite candles that is against the trend and where most traders are hunted. This post is all about the 'pause' and how to use it to enter the trend and finally reach our destination through the 'TREND' journey. Definition:- As the name suggests pause candle is the candle formed in between the trend, the change is usually opposite the trend i.e. if the underlined script is moving in an uptrend then the pause candle will be of negative change and the color will be red and vice-versa. The pause candle indicates a pause in fresh positions by market participants and an entry chance for players expecting reversals. Also, it's an opportunity for new players to enter the trend i.e. for those who have missed the initial trend. Rules or Characteristics of a pause candle:- 1. Prior candles should be aggressive i.e. large candles of the opposite color. 2. It is generally of very small size as compared to the previous one and of the opposite color. 3. Volume is considerably low as compared to previous candles. 4. The RSI level of the spot where this candle originates is usually between the band of 35-75 which confirms that trend has not come to exhaustion. The psychology behind the pause candle:- In the market everything has a cause and a reason similar pause candle also conveys its message to the market players. The generation of the pause candle signifies that there is fatigue among the participants who were driving the stock or are taking some break. Also, it alerts that new hands have entered into the trend and are trying to offer resistance. Those who are looking for reversals spot this candle and enter into trade with the hope of reversals, they are generally weaker hands. Bigger hands those who were the driving force of the trend also want the new player to enter the trend so that they hunt them down and resume the rally at a lower price. How to trade pause candle:- Now, as small players, we don't know what goes inside but try to predict the message through the candle. If a pause candle is formed it doesn't mean the exhaustion of trend or reversal rather indicates a pause in fresh market position. But, here the aggressive trader enters with trades opposite to the trend. At this stage, two cases arise, note talking for an uptrend:- -> The next candle's high crosses above the high of the pause candle: Maximum times this is the case that arises, here the candle after the pause candle crosses the high of the pause candle now what does this indicate? The indication is that the trend drivers or bigger hands are active again and those who have taken a position against the trend are trapped and will try to escape hence, the move will be much sharper as compared to the initial trend. How to benefit in this case? When you spot such a pause candle that is formed after a continuous trend set it to alert candle and wait for the next candle to form. If the next candle crosses the high of the pause candle take the position along the trend and your stop would be the low of the pause candle which is generally too small and ride the sharper trend which is usually equal to the initial one. -> The next candle's low crosses below the low of the pause candle: Though not arises usually sometimes it does occur, here the candle after the pause candle crosses the high of the pause candle now what does this indicate? The indication is that the trend drivers or bigger hands are in the backseat and are not seeing further upside also there is a chance that they can book profits at this level. How to benefit in this case? When you spot such a pause candle that is formed after a continuous trend set it to alert candle and wait for the next candle to form. If the next candle crosses below the low of the pause candle take the position against the trend and your stop would be the high of the pause candle which is generally too small and ride the reversal trend which is usually half of the initial one. This case comes under the reversal candlestick patterns on which earlier an article was published by me but here we are concerned about a pause candle after which rally resumes. Note: The only constraint is to identify the correct pause candle for which you can refer to the above-said rules. Sometimes the candle after the pause candle crosses both the high and low of the pause candle in that circumstance you have to check the color of the candle, for uptrend it should be green then you can take the position else if it's red then wait for the next candle, and vice-versa for the downtrend.
Education
by Chaser30
When BTC is KingAt a top. When you hear the bull roar in flashes of youtube notifications spamming and speaking of 1000% gains. When celebs start shilling their coins and dougin' it. When insecurity bubbles up through our mesh of teeth squelching on and on regarding stakes, gains and your shadows of sins. We seek refuge in the king of coins. And BTC becomes dominant. Even ETH is silenced, steady and confident as she may be. BCH may flutter, but we'll have to see what gives. For the past hours, ETH and Alts are leaning onto BTC. Very insecure movements. Alts capitulating after enormous runs. I've predicted ETH would drop because all the Elliott Waves are converging in to one move up. Weak or strong, who knows. One thing is sure, there is alot of room below for a nice new, fresh, position, when blood hits the streets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ofcoursebutmaybe
1
#bitcoin - In the storms eyeTaking into consideration, that Bitcoin is undecided where to go and receiving many different signals that are equal for bears and bulls, I am not trading right now. This is another "Pause" that will likely lead to a bigger move, both sides have been rejected with a slight tendency upwards last night. As I said before, the H6-Diagonal could end this bull-move pre-maturely, so far it did not really do that, it simply accepted it as border resistance. Bitcoin has overcome a breakout-level here AND is holding for now above the WW-Diagonal and the Daily-Diagonal, which gives this situation a slightly better chance to break upwards, than down. Nothing that would justify a new position now, also keeping in mind for those who are still long, that a possible max-target of the former Adam and Eve has not been fulfilled yet. We also have a minor symmetric triangle on 15m, that will likely lead the further direction for today very soon. Targets & Supports remain. ______________________________ Warm regards, Neru
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gl4diator
2