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ridethepig | NZDCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01NZD is moving as collateral with AUD, those following the previous AUDCNH idea will know this is no less imaginative. New Zealand is exposed to a short-circuit in Chinese supply chains leaving it vulnerable to a slowdown in China via coronavirus. On the monetary side, RBNZ has been notably quiet around the impact from the virus. The CB will not be able to hide from the slowdown for too long, exports are already being hit, tourism, commodities and consumer confidence! As is the case with AUDCNH: The range we are trading in NZDCNH is clearly defined; 4.7 - 4.05 and this trend has held since 2015. The flip is being broken and a breakdown looks imminent. Given the risk environment, I recommend trading towards support at the 4.05 lows and selling rallies going forward. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes coming on the CNH crosses ... an entire dissection of CNH and the impact from PBOC intervention. Jump into the comments with your charts and views!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.02.24A bloodbath across most of Asia with SHCOMP managing to hold via PBOC intervention. Actively sold the Tokyo close as red alerts have been triggered across Global EQ Index. Those familiar with the current technical flows we are tracking will remember the PBOC dip; it was a classic example of CB intervention in attempt to stop the bleeding. The issue is that markets want to test the limits, CV is showing no signs of abating and the impact is still yet to be seen in earning and growth figures. We have retraced back to the last breakdown point and selling has begun as if a new crisis is here... Good luck all those on the sell-side in equities, a major move in the making if things do not get under control within days on the virus front. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
SShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | Flash Crash In Play For AUDCNH !!A major breakdown ahead of the open as markets catch up to the virus disruptions. AUD and global trade are set to suffer for sometime, it will take a brave man to step against this flow. On the monetary side, RBA tee'd up a rate cut in April with another in Q3 on the cards. Housing has already done the heavy lifting, will need A LOT more help from elsewhere to create a positive outlook in the near-term for AUD. PBOC in a 'whatever it takes' moment with the printer starting to overheat. On the technicals, the doldrum 4.7-4.9 range remained intact throughout 2019. Since the new decade we have broken the lower end in the range via coronavirus trigger, a screaming warning for what is cooking globally. We are sitting at key support 4.5 which needs to hold otherwise we have a flash crash in play towards 4.3 - 4.25. Unless buyers step in quickly we are set to lose support on panic. Continue to sell weakness if we lose support. For those tracking USDCNH : For those tracking EURCNH : Lastly, for those tracking Chinese Equities : Best of luck all those in CNH, risks come from further PBOC intervention although looks like they ran out of time! Thanks all for keeping the likes, comments and charts coming!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | EURCNH Market Commentary 2020.03.01Here we go for a round of important chart update on the FX, Commodity and Equity board... I do not subscribe to the idea of this being the start of the euro reserve currency rally which we were tracking earlier in the year that failed from the Coronavirus short-circuit, although it is certainly moving with speed. Remember we have month end flows in play now too and to put the 🍒 on top the virus still not under control. I am expecting further downside in euro as the outbreak continues to delay the recovery in trade for Europe, now it is crystal clear if it wasn't already that the EUR really holds the key to pandora's box for those wanting to play the reflationary trade. This has been delayed till later in 2020 via the deflationary shock from COVID-19. Tracking 1.05xx-1.04xx in EURUSD. On the CNH side, the PBOC intervention is notable: Advise selling rallies in Chinese Equities for now, the demand for currency will increase as long as the virus shows no signs of abating. I expect this cross to grind towards the 7.40 levels where it would be very attractive for those mid and long-term macro players to buy the dip into 2021. On the technical side, Strong resistance is found at 7.73 / 7.75, use this to sell into and target the support at 7.40 / 7.38. Thanks as usual for keeping your support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
SHCOMP Gap Fill and 61.8% Fib BeatI apparently forgot the #1 rule in investing that has remained true since the financial crisis: don't bet against global central banks and their ability to maintain economic(stock) expansion. The PBOC has injected enough liquidity during this coronavirus outbreak to ease all trader fears of a market decline which has led to price filling the gap that was created around the Chinese New Year, and as of last night have now moved price back above the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. Both lower indicators are leaning bullish with a fresh bull cross in the PPO and an RSI that looks ready to move back into bullish territory above the 50 level.
S
by PrepForProfit
ridethepig | CNY Market Commentary 2020.02.16On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733. The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the USD devaluation / reflationary growth theme. I am still holding shorts and active looking for a test of the 6.825x. Anything below that will open the floodgates for the major break: As usual thanks for keeping support coming with the likes and comments, we'll open up the short-term flow after the Tokyo open in the comments below for those trading live!
Short
by ridethepig
RIDE THE PBOC !!!China returning from LNY and an (un)lucky -8% selloff taking the headlines as SHCOMP catches up to the bleeding across Global Equities since last week. Well done those that caught the move we traded live here: A flawless -8% leg in a single gap; as long as the full extent in the impact of this virus remains unclear it will be difficult for SHCOMP to get back above 3,000. These retraces should be seen as good SHCOMP selling opportunities (although tricky in this case for some). The liquidity injection from PBOC will be enough to put the handbrake on the selloff, this area is of focus and here looking for 2983 to the topside while 2650 is the area of focus below. China a much bigger part of global growth now; almost 2/3 of China is in shutdown meaning PMIs are likely to dip next month. We have some time to complete the retrace before reassessing if the coronavirus impact can be looked through or if we will need to change MT and LT outlooks. A transmission leg, not for the feint of heart. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with your likes, comments, charts and etc! Good luck all those trading SHCOMP after the last 8% move we can afford to leave some chips on the table.
SLong
by ridethepig
8
Sellers Biting On Granite In Gold!Bulls now have a solid position, since the opposing break is sellers biting on granite!! The lows cannot be broken, here we are tracking spillover risk-off flows from PBOC in USDJPY, Gold and SHCOMP in particular; Firstly USDJPY : Secondly SHCOMP : Bulls now on the one hand wants to trap sellers but on the other hand wants to load as much as possible. The annoying move of spiking out here without having loaded enough is dangerous; the former move would leave the lows unprotected. Buyers can calmly finish his preparations for the appropriate sizings, welcome the risk which is aiming for a breach in the highs. Note how we are still on track for the 1650 leg: From the painstaking and long-winded pullback, defensive measures have been placed and you can see how well aware retail is of the set-up with 1550 acting as strong support. Looking for 1550 ==> 1600 ==> 1630 ==> 1650 to complete the leg in Q120. As usual thanks to all for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | CNH Spot Commentary 2020.02.03An important update to the CNH chart after the latest coronavirus measurements and impact calculations. PBOC stepped in as expected to stop the bleeding and SHCOMP ending the day with a lucky -8%: In the FX market, the impact will show over the coming sessions as demand for CNH increases with capital rushing to the doors. This is not a healthy technical looking picture, buyers were tracking the "Cup and Handle" formation earlier last year till we traded the rejection live in the diagram: Although it takes a brave man to step against the current flows as they have been short-circuited via a temporary demand shock, I continue to look to ride the pig to the downside here and trade the leg towards the lows in the 6 handle via USD devaluation. Good luck all those navigating around the coronavirus flows, we will keep the charts updated incase of any breakouts to the topside. If this is the case we will need to reassess the view as the 7.27xx technical target which I mentioned earlier would be back in play. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Sticking With Gold in CNY Here we can focus on the realms of reflationary risks that are around the corner, the struggle to shake out bulls is identical to the struggle we saw in 2016 which is reassuring, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing issue. For those tracking the previous diagrams in Gold it is obvious in USD terms both on the Weekly and Daily. Weekly: Daily: What is surprising is that the boat is still not fully loaded which is quite unusual to see this late in the game. The swings otherwise always appear as waves which are being defended and the defender is always assigned to a direction! Very true; but waves in a macro trend are swings of more importance. So it should seem relatively normal to treat them with full sizings and extensions. Here is clearly a strong move in miners, though it involves the sharp threat of capitulation for bears. Which would make things much easier for trading XAU: On the other hand there is also risk from 2's 5's: Bears will have to overcome the entire flow which is now ready to continue marching forward towards the targets. For those tracking the end of year positioning flows for 2020 Q1, reflationary risks are around the corner!! After months of choppy waters , finally bulls are emerging from beneath the woodwork as we begin the flows towards 1650. I stick to my average forecast of XAUUSD $1650 and expect Gold to hit $1595, $1650 and $1800 on a 6, 12 and 24m basis. This is my final target in the 5 wave swing, afterwards I will expect Gold to enter in consolidation via profit taking. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FX_IDC:XAUCNYLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | AUD 2019 In ReviewHere we go with an update to AUD as we enter in 1H20. Consumers remain the key to the flows here, in my books markets overpriced odds of another cut from RBA in Feb 2020 ahead of income tax cuts in the middle of the year to stimulate the recovery. After RBNZ surprise hold in Q419, NZD was able to sustain a strong bid. After AUD unemployment came in better than expected, smart money is tracking for the same course of action from RBA and AUD. The shape of the Long-term Macro chart: The housing market continues to rise with a lack of supply entering into expectation plays by 2021 via declining vacancies and higher rental prices. The low rates will act as a catalyst for price growth. On the Corporate side , with PBoC using AUD to arbitrage the trade war business investment will continue to pick up in 2020. Scott Morrison will keep public infrastructure at high levels, while the weaker AUD in 2019 will continue to help exports. Unemployment has shown signs of improving, spare capacity will last till end 2021 and keep inflation via wages benign. This is supportive of RBA remaining on hold and here betting on no further easing as long as macro conditions show signs of improvement and stability. Dollar bear case: Australia / New Zealand: Forecast summary We can continue to update this thread over the coming Weeks, Months and Quarters so feel free to jump in with your idea generation to further the discussion for all. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | CNY 2020 Macro MapIn a nutshell, I am expecting Copper to keep Chinese Equities afloat and recover Q120 with less uncertainty via fiscal policy and a rebound in exports. For those following the latest Hang Seng / Copper chart: For the macro side, CNY will find a strong bid via trade tensions easing as we move into 2020 US elections. China's outlook for future generations is changing and while Trump protectionism causes USD devaluation via FED permanent operations. Flow wise I am expecting a lot of business to be done within 1H20 in FX markets, my main targets for 2020 remain at 6.85xx with momentum picking up in the decline through 2021. The reflationary theme is picking up traction and if we see the Dollar materially decline it will be enough to provide some further growth to Chinese exports in Q1, however from Q2 onwards it will be countered via capex softening and provide a choppy consolidation range. I look for this to break in the second half of 2021 which will complete the macro driven pullback towards my main swing target at 6.50. From a technical lens it should be no surprise we are trading the same key 6.949x from before in USDCNH: While for those tracking the long term dollar devaluation we have covered the macro side in previous charts: Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, more 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming days and weeks. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes and comments!
Short
by ridethepig
Major Reversal In Play For CNY - A Must Track!!A good time to update the CNY chart with US away from their desks for thanksgiving. Both sides rolling back tariffs means that CNY has unlocked the gates for a retrace towards the key 76.4%. On the monetary side, updates from PBOC who continue sitting on the bid and are unlikely to change stance and keep CNY strong against the crosses, and as long as this remains the case the highs will be capped. Risks to my thesis come from another escalation in protectionism. For Chinese Equities the important and key 2793 is back in play again: Those following previously will remember trading the breakout to the topside, which is now clear was the final exhaustion leg. A textbook one to track for those wanting to dig deeper: For the technicals we are tracking a similar leg in nature to the sell-off in 2017, initial looking to target 6.9xx with extensions as low as 6.6xx and 6.4xx. While to the topside invalidation will come via a break of the highs. Best of luck all those on the CNY bid, jump into the comments with any questions and your views on CNY!
Short
by ridethepig
USDCNH correction over, trend resumes Here we are coming to the end of the corrective wave within the underlying bull trend. The time has come to start getting to work on the top-side here again, this is a move we have been tracking for some months (see attached). We are going to be exploring the speed limit of the dollar over the next few months so buckle up and get ready for some very large moves across FX . Like the rest of the USD board, markets have been corrective and now is the time to re-establish upside exposure. Initial targets for the weekly move come in at 6.97 . There is scope to continue as far as 7.10 and 7.20. Best of luck those who are navigating around the US-China trade flows.
Long
by ridethepig
USDCNH: Weekly downtrend expirations...Weekly T@M signals imply $USDCNH might be basing before rallying from this juncture. Will be interesting to monitor developments in this pair, as fundamentals present complex issues, related to trade talks with the US and the price of commodities as well. The largest distribution pattern led to a signal that exceeded the target, but ran out of time, followed by a smaller distribution pattern, which is 1 week before its time expiration. IF price doesn't go any lower, odds are this pair bottomed here and will retest recent highs, and possibly trend even higher over time. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Neo - Matrix action News or Rumors, NEO will be in it's Matrix trend for long gain with correction. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There's so much confusion and a neutral response over the news which is usually start of a bull or bearish rally ? judge by yourself looking at charts and match the dates of the news. First there was a News but the price was jumped upto $48 but then there's a rumor that NEO is FUD. news.bitcoin.com cointelegraph.com Please check out following Neo decentralized exchange whitepaper. Read white paper before buying NEO. neonexchange.org ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Golden rule " Sell the news and buy the rumor ". Diamond rule " Buy almost at trend line, wait for the news to sell then again buy if there's a rumor " ;)
NLong
by fk91
BTCUSD: UpdateSideways action here...I'm waiting for fundamentals to evolve, the chart shows mixed signals that could develop into both a downtrend or an uptrend with equal chance...a bit leaning towards uptrend due to the long term chart, and also the poor follow through to the downside recently. Other than that, I don't yet have a good enough low risk setup here, so, I chose to wait in cash for now. Keep an eye out for the dates on chart. I can think of a few possibilities, a bullish scenario would be if suddenly the SEC approves the Winkledudes ETF, which could result in everyone forgetting about the China regulatory crackdown risks, and cause a massive short squeeze rally. A bearish scenario would be if we don't get any new positives, and China confirms eventually that they are banning everything, and we see an increase in oversight everywhere, with maybe the CTFC and the SEC making US investors' life hard. The timing for this to unfold will be slow and painful, probably, since China won't make any official remarks, or at least it is unlikely to do so, before 1 month after the end of the Communist party congress, which takes place during October. Let's wait and see... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by IvanLabrie
35
ETHUSD: Bird's eye view, don't miss the forest for the treesI'm holding long positions in $ETH, and aiming to add once we get further confirmation of the weekly uptrend resumption. Recent events have led to a rollercoaster of emotional trading and a lot of people badly positioned. I was anticipating a sentiment reset before, as you can see in my related ideas, it was in fact needed to resume the long term uptrend in cryptocurrencies, but it's never easy to maneuver keeping the long term picture in mind when short term charts and sentiment seem abysmal, but that is when opportunity comes knocking. Let's see if things evolve favorably, if I'm on the right track, market participants have weighted risks from China's crack down far too heavily and not considered positives like Japan's position in this juncture, or the massive potential of ICOs as a means to democratize venture capital, or heck, the implications of $ETH finally scaling once Metropolis finally goes live in 2 weeks. I added fundamental events and key levels on chart, I think we might see a quiet period during China's golden week, but, some traders might use the lower liquidity to squeeze shorts, after jewish investors return to the market after Yom Kippur. Keep an eye out for these developments, and be ready to increase your exposure, or, start getting involved in this great trend soon. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
21
USDCNH Bottomed / BTC-Crypto ForecastDear traders, I believe we are at a critical juncture here. Quite possibly, China allowing shorting of their currency might have made the $USDCNH pair bottom last Friday. This is no minor news, and if we study the chart we might be able to understand the relationship between the chinese Yuan and cryptocurrencies. Since 2014, that $USDCNH bottomed, it spent a long time basing, before starting a prolonged bull market. On the way up, said bull market was showing signs of exhaustion, which us, using the Time @ Mode methodology could see and anticipate. ByFebruary 2017, it was clear that bull market had ran its course, at least for a few months. After a period of distribution, with the government making efforts to strengthen the Yuan, severely punishing speculators, forbidding the shorting of the currency, and increasing rates to borrow the Yuan, the market topped and started a strong decline. The signals on chart indicated a fall to at least 6.54509 was warranted, within March/April until November/December 2017. Since this target was exceeded, it is likely that the market is bottoming, or possible bottomed. This doesn’t mean mmedate upside, but possibly a period of basing in the daily or weekly timeframe might ensue. This aligns with the time duration of the decline, ending by November or December of this year. After the end of November, if $USDCNH bases around here, the market will be ready to surge upwards during December! How does this matter for cryptocurrencies? Well, the long term forecast I made available long ago, with the only change being the price target getting extended to 6303.98, had a time duration of 20 months, culminating during November/December 2017. This also happens to correlate nicely with the timing of fundamental events that can derail the bull market in crypto like the Segwit2x hard fork, and interestingly, with a period that already started, that of increased scrutiny and regulatory oversight, which might culminate in the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC, which is what the long term technical charts suggest. Now, what are the risks? There is a chance we already topped, since target #1 in the weekly was hit, and we already saw some pressure from bears lately, but there is a larger probability that the market won’t fall immediately, since I assume that the smart money will need time to liquidate their holdings. How can they buy themselves time now? Maybe approving an ETF for trading in the US, like the Winklevoss, and maybe even the ETH ETF surfaces and is approved...But, I’m pretty sure, that the writings are on the wall, the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC is well overdue, so, I will start taking precautions. First, I will look to accumulate long positions in the $USDCNH pair, as my first move, and econd, I will be ready to hedge or liquidate holdings if needed, to then redistribute to my other accounts in equities and currencies, reducing my crypto position to only 25% of my net worth. If we do start a bear market, shorting might be a profitable endeavor, so, why not? In the short term, I’m following sentiment and technical charts, to determine if my bullish outlook is correct or not. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
39
ETHUSD: Peak ICO negativity sent $ETH back to the accumulationThis is an update of my $ETHUSD long term forecast. We're holding spot holdings in $ETH among other currencies in our crypto portfolio for a good while now. We aim for the targets on chart, it should base here for a bit, before launching higher, as the ICO 'ban' is potentially either reinterpreted by the market as actually bullish, since $ETH is a protocol to run smart contracts harnessing the power of descentralized computing first and foremost -and not an 'ICO scam machine'-, or proven to be falsely reported or exaggerated on some crucial detail. Overall, I think this can resolve positively, but we need to wait and see to know how it actually does happen. The chart provides us with guidance, and parameters for risk management, as well as potential target zones, which have been reliable and very accurate in the past, so, let's see if we get it right this time. Regulations that could result in a catastrophe for cryptocurrencies exist, and have existed for a long time, but it is up to the regulators doing the interpretation of the 'language' in them, to actually enforce something that might damage the crypto markets -albeit temporarily, but potentially drastically enough to cause a bear market for 2 years, and a severe crypto market cap decrease-. As always, the devil is in the details, and we still don't know how the ban will be enforced, other than scarce reporting of chiense exchanges halting trading or taking preemtive action, and it isn't yet clear if/when/how will they 'refund' ICO investors. Who knows?? Certainly not me, or the market. It is key to remember that many of the insiders and market participants might be aware of facts we still don't know about, so many times, they show their tracks in the technical charts. Shout out to @db3NYa5Vww for the help in interpreting the texts concening potentially relevant regulations. Best of luck. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
16
ETHXBT: Ethereum has a weekly uptrendThe target hasn't been hit yet, but we might end up hitting it, and stalling there for some time, as I had explained in the monthly chart I posted. If you're long, look into closing margin longs on target, or if you own more than 50% account, go back to BTC to maintain equal weights in your cash account (spot, no leverage). The support here is strong, so you can probably look into going long if this support zone holds. $BTCUSD is right against resistance, derived from the ETF decision news price action. It's a good idea to short with a stop at 1190+, or simply buying $ETHXBT alternatively (if you didn't yet). We closed our margin longs on the previous bar, and now reentered. With some luck, we won't go any lower before hitting the weekly 'Time at Mode' target. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
11