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EURUSD: Tight stop loss longEURUSD has an interesting signal in the short term. The chart points to more upside here, but the most interesting thing is that the stop loss for this long trade is very tight. Also, we have a record position in speculator shorts in treasuries plus a massive selloff courtesy of China, which would correlate with today's dip in the Euro (on the back of Yellen's remarks as well). With these things in mind, there're big expectations going into Trump's inauguration on Friday, and the downtrend mode resistance has been breached in the daily and weekly charts here, so, upside is possible. I don't discard a selloff in the Pound, so I'd keep that short as my backup plan, but I'm taking this long here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
USDCNH: PBOC gave us a nice discount in BTC and USDCNHFollowing the PBOC's manipulation and the massive drop for two days, price is starting to slow down. I think we will see a bottom here shortly. If we don't hit 6.7696 before Monday's close, we can anticipate a turn here. After the week closes, we'll get more confirmation of the risks in BTC and USDCNH. It could take as long as 3 weeks to confirm upside is viable again, so let's keep close watch of this and don't miss the discount to enter the long side again. I'll update this one as needed. As a sidenote, it's interesting to see volatility increase in this pair, it tends to move very little compared to other FX dollar crosses. An increase in volatility and liquidity might make traders become interested in it, which would create more opportunities and potentially higher win rate signals with increased liquidity. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Daily updateThis is what we're looking at here. We're already in a full position, so, we're limited to use leverage to add trades here. We took a long, currently in profit, and we're aiming to book profits and reduce our long term position against resistance higher. We'd like to see the following happen next: No new lows after today. Daily close above 5175. Price not hitting going under 4811, and not hitting 3991 by the 16th (if #1 and #2 happen...naturally, this won't occur) Price return to 6300 give or take, within a few days, and then go up to test the PBOC key level. After this happens, we'll need to see how price action evolves, in which case, I'd favor booking profits from our longs, except for the core long term position of 15-30%. In my case, I aim to hold 20/20%, in ETH and BTC, and not close these until we achieve the long term targets described in my other charts. Good luck to us all. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
48
BTCCNY: Intraday viewBTCCNY's correction appears to have ended, at least for now. We need to determine if it'll hold here, or break lower before finally resuming the long term advance. I'll monitor price action to manage my position size accordingly. I'm currently long, after trimming down to 20% exposure before the PBOC news fueled 37% decline, and added 60% gradually, over 3 days. Keep an eye on RgMov and volume and ATR here, for now, things are quiet, but this won't last. I expect to see a retest of 7498.90 in the short term, but what happens after that is yet to be seen, so, I'll look to reduce my long exposure back to 20% once we hit this target, or at least place a trailing stop loss, to reduce risk on part of my position. Remember to always hold 15-30% that you never sell, spot, no leverage, and no stop loss. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
14
BTCCNY: Long term uptrend en routeThis is what the long term picture looks like for Bitcoin right now. We have now hit the Range Expansion validation target, which confirms that bullish momentum is intact, increasing our confidence in the forecast on chart. There are two targets, one with a high probability of being attained, of more than 60%, and one with lower probability, but still more than 50% chance, and a high probability reversal level on both cases. Once we hit the targets on chart, we could see price stall, or reverse back down to 2955.01 as a worst case scenario. We will be able to determine which will happen, once we reach those levels. If we see price stall, then bullish continuation is more probable, and with detailed multi timeframe analysis, we will be able to add to longs safely on each short term and intermediate term setup that the trend might give us. Don't pass on these low risk opportunities I present to you. I have been covering this extensively, so that people can see how well the trading methodology I learned from my mentor, Tim West, works in Bitcoin. I won't necessarily cover it in such detail in the future, this will probably be my last chart for the year. Next year, I might post updates to it, but not post so many trade setups for my followers. If you're interested in receiving all my trade ideas, contact me for access to my trading signals or private tuition course. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
4
USDCNH PBOC DevaluationThe PBOC’s task becomes increasing difficult with a strong USD since China decided to hitch its star to the USD. China from the 1980’s until now has exported goods and capital to America. The DXY Index (US Dollar Currency Index) weakened to a low of 72.00 in Spring 2008. Since then, it has rallied over 33%. The CNY has strengthened 5% in USD terms and manufacturing wages are up 128% over the same time period. In FX terms, Chinese goods are 38% more expensive, and profit margins of manufacturers are collapsing. Further USD strength will be crippling to the economic base of China. A strong USD also intensifies capital outflows as rich citizens rush to convert their wealth into a strong and rising USD. Each time the Fed has thought about or actually completed a rate hike, China has responded forcefully by devaluing the Yuan. We expect PBOC to further devalue their currency in response.
Long
by forexmasters2016
1
AUDUSD: Longer term charts might indicate a downtrendThere's a discrepancy between timeframes in $AUDUSD, with the daily recently turning into a downtrend, after suggesting buying dips was viable all year; the weekly in an uptrend, and close to fail to confirm bearish momentum within 2 weeks; and the monthly indicating a full flung downtrend is en route, and it should eventually achieve the 0.63111 mark by or before the end of December 2017. In the short term, the daily chart despite indicating bears are in control, might indicate a retracement or sideways consolidation is about to start, specially viable after we hit the second target, and/or when time for the daily downtrend runs out by January 3rd. RgMov warns you in the daily, if you wish to go long to catch a retracement, because price might just go sideways, chopping buyers and sellers out for a while, so it will be easier to take the sell side only, either after an overbought rally in the daily, or after a sideways consolidation ends. (I prefer to do nothing for now, but, if you're interested in going long, you can try to buy a new daily high, risking a drop under last week's low) Good luck, Ivan Labrie
Short
by IvanLabrie
USDCNH: Pullback's done hereUSDCNH appears to have completed a correction and is ready to resume the uptrend here. This bodes well for Bitcoin longs as well. If you want to take the trade, risk a drop to 6.8374, or enter gradually over a few days, risking a bigger move down. The other alternative is to dial down to 1h charts to take the trade, or simply buy a new daily high, with a stop at the recent low. In the current enviroment, I don't favor using stops at all, and start with smaller positions, due to the 'expanding bias' where markets go a bit further than expected, or take a little longer to turn, each time. If you have tight stops, you'll get chopped out multiple times. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
USDCNH: Potential long term topWith oil rallying, and China soon to be accepted by the IMF, to include the Yuan in the SDR currency basket, the technicals in this chart suddenly look very good to me. You could go short here, with stops above yesterday's high to begin with. The currencies not affected by today's fear spike due to Deutsche Bank's shock were: the Euro (surprisingly!), XAU, XAG, CHF, CNH, so, we know these are relatively stronger (same as oil and other commodities). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
BREXIT YUAN DEVALU: USDCNH - SNEAKY FX FIXING? SELL SPX & FTSEAt the start of 2016 the PBOC began aggressively devaluing the off-shore Yuan against the USD, imo in an attempt to start the year with a competitive export:import advantage - with the aim of making 2016 a headline "come back" year for China amid the growing GDP growth and Credit bubble worries. As a result Equities across the board sold-off (-8.5% in a few days) as non-chinese Exporters globally feared that their biggest market/ growth market was coming under pressure, as the relative value of their USD exports soared, as Chinese import demand would fall significantly and as a function of the depreciation relative to the USD. Whilst the initial highly correlated move hit equities by -8.5% (7 days), however when fully priced, the CNH devaluation fears took the SPX down 13% to 1808 lows in just 12 trading days. The PBOC Deval intervention took CNH to lows of 6.7550 and low-closes of 6.6900. Brexit - Under the radar and sneaky PBOC FX Intervention? 1. Fast forward 6 months - the Days going into Brexit USDCNH traded at almost exactly the same fix as the pre-deval January level at 6.58 (blue line), then on the most volatile brexit days, the 24th and 29th, PBOC fixed the Yuan 1000pips lower to 6.6850, just above the extreme January lows at 6.6900 - Since then CNH has continued drifting lower, and now has eclipsed the shock January low closes of 6.6900, currently at 6.6960, which is now a new 6 year low. - This begs the question, did the PBOC plan this as a way to get their goal of competitive depreciation achieved WITHOUT the negative press/ market impacts that were seen in January? The answer is unknown but by looking at the Yuan prices on brexit day and the day after, it certainly looks like it - 1000pip devaluation in 2 days, thats bigger than any deval in CNH's previous history (even from January). How to trade it? 1. Imo this trade is a no brainer, given the PBOC seem happy to keep fixing CNH higher and have shown no signs of stabilising/ appreciating - with the last 6 daily candles in the green, my bets are that the PBOC in the near-term think they have gotten away with the deval, in the midst of all of the brexit effects e.g. Central Bank information flows are high, the brexit news itself and general market volatility are all acting as distractions - thus the SPX hasnt priced any of this deval YET despite it being more extreme than what caused the 8-13% equities sell off in January? - I have to admit, it has taken even me until now to realise this sly depreciation, nonetheless this trade (short Equities) is a one up on the market currently as most still havent noticed and continue to focus on central bank action.
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
USDCNH: Weekly short setup, long the laggardUSDCNH is a very interesting pair right now. In this chart you can see a few instruments, pitted against each other. Currently, talking currencies, the offshore yuan is lagging the group, compared to the other dollar pairs on chart, and it happens to have a weekly time at mode downtrend signal, which confirmed last week on close, which gives us targets of 6.37 and 6.28, with a possibility based on the monthly, of hitting 6.05 in the long term. Keep a wide stop loss if you take this trade, I'd reccomend 1 to 3 ATR for the stop, and short at market. As a sidenote, you can also see that Palladium and Copper are lagging the group. Now, this could mean that on a relative strength basis, the Yen, Canadian dollar and gold, are safer investments, but it also implies they have already moved a lot, and they might not have as much room up, compared to CNH, EUR, AUD, Copper or Palladium. I'm willing to wager on the latter being true. Keep risk reasonable, and good luck if you take this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
USDCNH, AUDUSD and NZDUSD: Don't fade an uptrendIn this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start. AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it. It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does. NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join. CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side. Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis. I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
USDCNH: RMB has toppedAfter forecasting the path this pair would take with considerable precision, I jumped on the short side. Presently we have short positions running, and we plan to add to them as described on chart. The target is a time at mode 17 bar decline target's, but it could extend further down, maybe even to the mode at 6.21329. This pair has been really volatile, and trending excellently, both up, and down, so it has become one of my personal favorites. It's also useful to analyze it, and other Asian theater currencies, to have a sufficiently precise macro view. Good luck if taking this trade. If interested in my services, contact me privately, see my profile for details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
Yuan fuelling the bitcoin resurgence?The cryptocurrencies have been back in the news recently, in light of Bitcoins astronomic resurgence. Although it would be naive to believe that any one thing can be the driver behind the 150% increase over the past few months, significant parallels however can be drawn with what has been going on in China. Now, I don't want to bore you, but for those who don't know; Chinese nationals can 'only' transfer out of the country the equivalent of $50,00 per year. With China's economy in somewhat of a downward spiral the government are increasingly keen to keep as much money as possible within its economy rather than it being held, invested or spent outside of China. There have been a number of high profile attempts to try and circumvent the restriction, which have had varying degrees of success. The abuse of China UnionPay is the one currently under the Ministry of Public Security’s microscope. Via the use of Union cards in Macau; the former Portuguese enclave has become a hotbed for the use of unregulated POS (Point Of Sale) systems. Chinese nationals can use these vendors to ‘purchase an item’ but in reality receive cash as a result of the transaction. My point is that with these capital controls gaining momentum, a parallel can be drawn with the increase in the price of Bitcoin. As a side note - expect Macau based casino revenues to be detrimentally affected, compounded by other measure being taken by Beijing to restrict the decadence of high profile officials on the island. ( OTC:WYNMY & Galaxy are two Macau based casino behemoths if you’re interested in that side of things). I am ultimately quite bearish in the short-term with the cryptocurrency having already failed to break the November 2014 highs with my target being the 0.5 fib level (circa $360) with 0.618 fib level ($310) presenting a favourable buy opportunity. It's pointless me regurgitating articles so I have put a link to it below (South China Morning Post). I have also put links to a few more articles that I found both useful and interesting when putting this analysis together. Sources: Bloomberg: www.bloomberg.com Deutsche Welle: www.dw.com South China Morning Post: www.scmp.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DarrenWells
2