SALES ARE DOWN, SUBSCRIPTIONS ARE UPThis is a great candidate for a buyout, perhaps from Apple.
Their business is strong regardless of the tanking sales, due to the subscription model.
Let's see if we've bottomed out here.
Pelaton
PTON Short EntryOh Pelaton. What a ride you had :) This stock started last year (2020) at around $27 a share, rising up to $170 just 12 months later. It's time for a correction. And, although I'm not a fundamental expert/trader, I believe there's a case to be made here. First, let's look at the charts.
Technical Basis - Daily Chart
Let's start with the Daily chart. There are quite a few things happening right now in this chart. Let's start with the moving averages. The first red arrow below points to the crossing of the averages. With the 200 period on top and the 20 period on bottom, we are in a perfect situation to enter a short trade.
Next, we have the diagonal trend line that'd been respected for a few months now. We're right at that level, with the Stochastics up in overbought territory. Great second sign of a solid short entry.
Going on, we see a bit of a support/resistance zone around $100 (my line is at 99.88). Price has respected this a bit, and we're back at that level. On the short side, this is a bit of a break and retest entry, and I am expecting this to fail downward.
Finally, my favorite part is that the horizontal support/resistance line is currently crossing the trend line. This is a great place to enter a trade. When two of my lines cross on a chart, its a confluence of lines, and likely to be a point where price bounces.
Technical Confirmation - 4H Chart
For furher insight, I pulled up the 4H chart. Now, this isn't a perfect entry or setup by any means, but it's decent confirmation. Price has tested the upper Bollinger Band, and Stochastics are in overbought territory. Again, a great place to enter as the current candle is showing a reversal pattern together with the previous two.
Fundamental Thoughts
As mentioned, I don't look deeply at balance sheets or company politics. Fundamental investing is not my game, and I don't pretend to be good at it. However, there is one thing that comes to mind. The pandemic is getting better in many countries, and people are beginning to go outside. Gyms are re-opening, people can run/bike outside, and although Pelaton built a huge customer base, I don't think purchases and revenue will rise at such rapid rates. Just my two cents there.
My Trade
So, there are many ways to get into this trade to make money. You may not be able to short the stock, and that's okay. I often don't short stocks myself. Instead, I'm going with a Vertical Put Spread option on this one. I am doing a 18 Jun 21 spread at 97 and 94 strike prices. The premium I paid came out to $90/contract, with maximum gain of $220 (not including commissions). My breakeven point at expiration is just about $76 for PTON.
Pelaton - Long Opportunity - What about Recall & Earnings!?Pelaton Opportunity..
They did have a recent recall on their treadmills which caused more dump in price, it was already dumping to begin with.
Earnings now.
Currently trading at under half the price from all time high - time to keep greed in check.
Head & Shoulder pattern played out, dump ongoing..
With the 200MA forming right at the .618, which we're currently at I wouldn't mind laddering some buys down for a potential swing in the near future. Decent risk to reward considering the amount of price history above current level.
Good luck!
ridethepig | A retrace in play for home fitness📌 Peloton
One of the aspects of consumer behaviour that has changed the most over the past few months has been the approach to fitness and home-enablers. As we introduced a deep and accurate buy approach it helped that Fed and other CB's helped to raise the bar even higher with their ambitious and methodical (right...) approaches.
So, as with many other improvements, the $2,000 coat hanger consists of a monthly subscription service which members can go through daily. However we would need to see consumers continue to cough up $2,000 for an exercise bike when the economy is tanking. We are certainly not ready for mass adoption and growth until the economy heals. Armed with a pair of trainers and one can produce the same outcome although I refuse to demonstrate illustratively ... maybe one day on Tradingview streams!
In any case, the format of the flow is quite simple. Throughout the impulsive leg it was a matter of letting bulls over-extend before finding a comprehensive fade.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
ridethepig | Bullish On Home Fitness ... Pelaton At The Lows!We can start to look for single stock opportunities as behavioural economics changes as a result of the Coronavirus impact. We are talking about a dramatic loss in confidence, global OCD patient numbers are ticking higher which btw itself from time-to-time be a very useful indicator.
We are talking about an outbreak which has triggered volatility across the board and home enablers will benefit. Would it not be opportune to direct our focus towards a new sector? How to do that will be seen in the following months in the stages of transfer.
As the main background to the theme, VIX now reaches the final stages in the move towards 85 it's time to start looking for value areas in PTON:
We are starting to reach the initial targets in SPX and DAX selloffs which implies there will be some profit taking from sellers despite the fact we are entering into a recession:
DAX
SPX
Other opps... GILD will continue doing the heavy lifting on Remdesivir (GS-5734) side, this is their free pass into the Chinese Healthcare system. Models will need to start quickly repricing revenue from the Hep B cases in China. GILD will do the heavy lifting here, +/- $20 upside available on the headline for FDA approval which looks around the corner. Flow-wise, the initial target area from the latest technical break comes into play at 86. xx (+25% from current levels).
Highlights on the ownership front going to usual suspects in here, Morgan Stanley, Soros, Blackrock, Eminence and Fidelity. This is another known position, it's going to be decided in the next few days. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling.
