AI's EUR/USD Pattern & Scalping Range, Local European SentimentAI's EUR/USD Falling Channel & Breakout Odds with Scalping Range
D ear Valued Investors,
Introduction
I would like to provide you with an update on the trading bots' activity. They have been diligently following a short position initiated at 1.101, see the idea above the chart, and I am pleased to inform you that the trade has been successful, as indicated by the success of the forecast on the left side of the chart.
News Trading - Natural Language Processing Results
- The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in July, which could strengthen the euro. The ECB has been signaling for months that it will need to raise rates to combat inflation, and the latest data suggests that inflation is still running high in the eurozone. A rate hike would make the euro more attractive to investors compared to the dollar, which is currently yielding very little.
- The eurozone economy is showing signs of resilience. The eurozone economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2023, and the latest data suggests that growth is continuing in the second quarter. This suggests that the eurozone economy is more robust than many economists had expected, which could support the euro in the near term.
- The risk of a recession in the United States is increasing. The US economy is facing a number of headwinds, including high inflation, rising interest rates, and the war in Ukraine. These factors could lead to a recession in the US, which would likely weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro.
Personal Comment
I live in the EU, and as a consumer, I don't see any sign of recession here. To me, it seems that the US economy bears the bigger weight in the news of the war are about. Objectively, the US economy might be stronger, but the prices don't necessarily reflect the current power. Investors try to speculate which economy will suffer harder and pool value into those that seem resilience. I believe in the resilience of the EU economy, and I experience the local sentiment. While prices are rising, people don't FUD yet. Many seek opportunities to make a profit that can cover the inflation costs. EUR has seemed more resilient so far to the difficulties than the other European currencies. If you live in the EU, you know that many countries still have their national currencies (not EUR), but you can pay with EUR everywhere here. So, it makes sense that many sell their national currencies to EUR. EUR is more resilient, and they can pay with it as smoothly as with their national currencies.
Pattern Recognition AI's Results
Through my pattern recognition algorithms, I have identified a falling channel pattern on the chart. This pattern is characterized by purple trendlines. Despite its bearish implications, the price broke above this pattern on December 11th, suggesting potential bullish momentum.
Scalping Possibilities
Currently, the EUR/USD is in a consolidation phase, trading between the support level at 1.072 and the resistance level at 1.082. These levels align with the EMA 100, and the support line is denoted by the color green, while the resistance line is represented by red. Shorting opportunities may arise from resistance to support.
Neural Network's Prediction
Based on the current technical indicators, I anticipate a scenario in which the EUR/USD gains momentum from the support level and breaks out above the channel. This potential trajectory is depicted by the white lines. In the event of a successful breakout, my neural networks suggest target prices of 1.095 or even 1.100.
Technical Indicators
The fluctuating volume below the channel indicates increasing volatility. Noteworthy bullish indications include the price consolidating above EMA 20, the RSI crossover below on the RSI indicator, and the strong uptrend of MACD since December 7th.
Disclaimer:
I would like to emphasize that this communication does not constitute investment advice. I strongly urge you to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. It is essential to recognize that your funds are your responsibility, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Sincerely,
Ely
Personal
If you Could Read my Lines, the story my plots would tellsum of none. master with no grand and no ground.. i have put in my 10,000 hours, i heard that was enough to master a skill.. add as many zeroes as you want i still feel it's my first day with a keyboard... i wake up each day and think of something i need to learn and improve in myself. i'm scared most of the time, and i feel alone more than i knew i could. surviving this world i live in, where my life is impossible to understand, the coffers bare and not slept in a bed in over a year, parking lot to parking lot stealing power and free wifi coding 18 hours a day.. i don't know how i'm still here.
with charts, i find something i understand, can trust, when they speak to me.. indicators are more than simply what's in front of you, but what isn't obviously seen. sometimes we miss that there's more than just the standard tools rigidly picking us up and slamming us down..
by changing the way that we listen, we expand understanding.
my days charting have taught me to speak stronger
and how to listen to what isn't said
amidst noise, distortion, and aggressive volatility
in search of tender.
PSAVERT - the personal saving ratePersonal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income (DPI), frequently referred to as "the personal saving rate," is calculated as the ratio of personal saving to DPI.
Personal saving is equal to personal income less personal outlays and personal taxes; it may generally be viewed as the portion of personal income that is used either to provide funds to capital markets or to invest in real assets such as residences.
Market looks like 2008 + InflationYou been worried about inflation? How about inflation and recession at the same time? Me too, but I’ve been working on methods to mitigate losses and ways to succeed in the coming years.
Look at any commodity and you’ll see the similarities to 2008. I don’t want to be alarmist, but, it’s the truth. I got out of my positions in November and chose to not reenter. Stocks and commodities are hardly stores of value. It’s a shame but unless you’re prepared to short this market, get out, use your money to start a business in an emerging market, something that doesn’t rely heavily on commodity inputs.
Consider that people won’t have money going forward, they will, but it will be chewed up by inflationary elements of society. Buy tools, something that people can rely on your for. If you can’t use them yourself, rent them out. Find ways to supplement your income, and reduce your cost of living.
Maybe reducing costs isn’t that crazy, just go back to the old staples of life.Maybe by building a vegetable garden, buying your own weights and exercising outside of a gym, reducing to one subscription for streaming or find natural sources of entertainment, etc. - live more, but spend less.
This is the way to success in this next market cycle, because to be honest, owning land or bitcoin or other stores of value will help, but will still be be subject to taxes and the fluctuations of strength in the USD, CAD , etc. This still leaves you exposed to uncomfortable risks.
Hedge your investments in those stores of value with your own personal budget and expenses. It sucks, but you’ll be happy in 10 years when you chose to focus on your outputs and inputs in a more personal way.
This is just an idea but it’s something we should all be considering. I mean damn, wheat, oil, housing, it’s all at 2008 levels. Why not be proactive and get prepared for this next market cycle.
PERI - Upward and OnwardPerion Network Ltd is an Israel-based global technology company. It delivers online advertising solutions and search monetization to brands and publishers.
The run for digitization during the Covid Pandemic has provided a stellar price increase for the stock followed by a somewhat laggard performance in 2021.
The fundamentals of the company look solid and my personal believe is that the growth potential of the company is not really reflected in the current price. By not being a large US entity the company might have been somewhat overlooked by the market.
Key Fundamentals
Solid revenue growth of 41% yoy
No long term debt on the balance sheet
High operating cash yield of 120%
RoI 10.1%
Technical
The price seems to form a wedge since its all time highs, currently trading just short of the upper leg of the wedge in what seems to be short term resistance around $20, ahead of the July highs of $24.
Wedge formation since all time high in March
Short term support around $17
Medium term support around $15
MACD trading flat with no clear signal
RSI just short of overbought territory, confirming first resistance (R1)
Conclusion
Potential Long position below current levels, I'd be happy to own the stock anywhere between current levels and $17.I see longer-term upside as long as the earnings maintain momentum. Breaking through the wedge at $20 will be key in the short run however. I would align my exit with current analyst consensus at $28 while maintaining a SL in the $15-17 area.
***Disclaimer: This is my personal view and does not represent trading advice. I publish this as a personal trade log and to keep track of my findings and believes. Do conduct your own research before investing and do not trade what you cant afford to loose.***
29/04/2020On this chart I have looked at some EMA's and MA's and also the VPVR point of control on the daily for BTC.
The lighter blue represents the 30EMA, yellow 21EMA, green 55EMA which we have seemed to all pass. The purple is the 200MA and deep blue 30MA. We have clearly passed and continue to pass the 30MA and are very close to the 200MA.
The volume is steady though still low, and the VPVR shows the current PoC would be the $7220 mark or there abouts.
The delevoping volume area to the upside looks to be around $9Ks/$10Ks mark, and to the downside around the $6550/$6580-ish mark.
After clearing the $7200s on the VPVR and continuing upwards the next target I would look at if this uptrend continues would be within the 8Ks to $8100s, possibly $8600 mark.
I still hold a longer term bias to the downside and think this could be a dead cat, or as some say 'the shake out before the break out'.
Again, given the Halvening and current economic situation, I think it is an uncertain market to trade, I think personally this uptrend is a dead cat pump before the Halvening and again it is to shake out alot of SL and FOMO buyers/traders who are jumping on the pump, although the TA looks different as the days go by, and different on almost all time frames. I am just posting what I can see using some indicators and my own personal opinion.
The next 2 months are going to be crazy price ction IMO and probably won't settle down until mid June or further ahead.
As I post his, BTC has gained 2.5% in the past 6hrs, but I can't help but think there is heavy manipulation in the market right now although I may just be doubtful of the pump. I still think we are in for a pullback, maybe not as far as before but most certainly we cannot keep going up in this manor IMO.
Just my thought for this morning, maybe it helps, maybe it doesn't. My charts are for my own comparison and to refer back to in the future. I would not urge anyone to take anything I say as advice, I am simply speculating on a speculative market that changes each and every day.
Thank you for taking the time to look at the chart and any opinions are always valued as I like to see things from others perspectives to compare to my own.
Courses, horses - or the mind?If you’re reading this looking just for the best course to attend, you may be disappointed. I go deeper than the simple issue of 'which courses' or 'what course is best'. The sharing of my personal experience may be of value to new traders but also for more seasoned traders.
INTRODUCTION
I’m sharing a summary of my experiences over the last 4 years, so that others can see something more about ‘courses’ – and what courses can never give you.
I am nobody known or big in the trading world. I do not offer advice in this or any other post. I do not train anybody. I do not seek anybody's money for any service. I do not require recognition. Take all of what’s written here as 'what I've learned' and cautiously apply the parts of it that you find of any value. Where I use words like ‘you’ and ‘yours’, this is my self-talk as if I’m advising myself all over again. I do this all the time. You're not mad if you're doing self-talk. It is an important thing to do.
I started off with binary options and lost a fair amount of money. I watched numerous videos on YouTube about how to trade these, with numerous so-called successful strategies. In my searches I came across Spreadbetting, and did the same. More money lost. I then signed up with various trainers and spent more money there. More losses. I'm to blame I was led to understand because I didn't follow the rules. That's true to some extent - but something fundamental was missing. Why could I not follow the rules of some strategy invented by others? It's about why this post is in the Trading Psychology section of Tradingview.
I followed various gurus on websites, paid more money and still no success. Most of these gurus had state of the art audio-visual equipment and studios. They usually appeared with large microphones, conspicuous and 'in the face'. Is that really necessary? Some will say it’s all about better sound quality.
Then I got into ‘trading diaries’ and other things people out there said I should do. Still major problems.
So, what was missing? To put it in a nutshell the problem was grappling with my personal psychology . This is about the way I work - how my mind functions in relation to risk, which would be different to everybody else. Psychologists may be able to tell you a bit about how minds in general work. They cannot tell you exactly how ‘your mind’ works.
GURUS?
Most of the gurus I came across would mention psychology several times but never get to the heart of it. Naturally they're not psychotherapists, so they can't tell me how to sort myself out. Most trainers focused on 'discipline' which is fine, but they couldn't tell me how to become disciplined. What? - am I just supposed to pull myself together and follow a script? Some would say 'yes'. But this is not how the human being operates. If everybody could just pull themselves together and follow a trading plan and a set of rules, then everybody would be rich. Come on - we all know that's silly.
... truncated .
This post became so long, that it cannot fit on Tradingview. It is accessible here where I go on to explore:
GURUS?
RECOGNITION
METHODOLOGY AND STRATEGY
MIND AND PSYCHOLOGY
PATTERN REWRITING
IF I COULD TURN BACK TIME
I do apologise, and hope Tradingview allows this post to remain.