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The crisis in Argentina and Corbyn attacks JohnsonThe crisis in Argentina. Argentina’s stock market lost more than 30% on Monday, and the Argentine peso also fell significantly. The ghost of default in Argentina scared investors around the world. Given that it is all about the 25th largest economy in the world, their fears are more than understandable - this could well be a signal for a full-fledged global crisis, the prerequisites for have been formed for a long time ago. In this light, the constant attempts of gold to “gain” a foothold above 1525 are understandable. But on the other hand, our recommendation to sell on growth paid off all week, giving good earnings almost every day. So this week we will continue to adhere to a similar tactic. As for the Pound. Even though its weekly growth was slightly more than 100 points, it is important, that in dollar pair, it was able to gain a foothold above 1.21. The reasons for growth were good statistics on retail sales and the labor market and Brexit. So, last week, pound sellers were flustrated by aggressive rhetoric from the British opposition. Jeremy Corbyn, British politician serving as Leader of the Labour Party and Leader of the Opposition, called for a vote of no confidence and declare a caretaker government that ensures that the country will not leave the EU without a deal and will hold early UK elections. We emphasize that it is all about the rumours, so this week we will continue to look for points for pound purchases. As for the dollar. U.S. retail sales came out pretty good, however, we still continue to recommend its purchasing. Market expectations regarding the September FOMC meeting unchanged - 100% of traders believe that the rate will be lowered by at least 0.25%. This alone is enough to maintain our confidence in a dollar decline. As for the upcoming week, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it promises to be relatively calm. The main event will be a symposium in Jackson Hole - guaranteed a lot of comments from representatives of leading central banks, which will certainly lead to spikes in volatility in the foreign exchange market. So you should be prepared for this and adjust the parameters of open positions for this factor.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Argentina Financial Crisis Fears ArisesFears once again loomed all over Argentina in a financial crisis rushing to the fore. And over the weekend, President Mauricio Macri had a stunning rout in the primary elections. At the same time, investors dropped its bonds, stocks, and currency en masse in a selloff. And it left Wall Street thinking that the crisis-prone country will have another default. In addition to that, the upset is widely seen as a preview of the presidential vote in October. And it suddenly opens the doors to the possibility of a more protectionist government will take power come December. Also, it might untangle the hard-won gains that Macri build-up to retrieve international markets’ trust. Then, it intensified worries Alberto Fernandez, his populist rival, and Cristina Fernandez, his running mate, will attempt to renegotiate its debts and agreements with the International Monetary Fund. In the coming year, the foreign-currency billion debt is due. Edwin Gutierrez is the head of emerging-market sovereign debt at Aberdeen Asset Management. And he stated, “The market is starting to price in default” and it “is unwilling to give Fernandez the benefit of the doubt.” Debt Payments of Argentina Meanwhile, looking at the credit-default swaps, it suggests that traders are expecting a 75% likelihood that Argentina will suspend its debt payments for about five years. Last Friday, this chance was only about 49%. Then, its dollar-denominated government bonds wiped out about 25% on average. As a result, it dragged down prices to as low as 55 cents on the dollar. Yields, on the other hand, on shorter-maturity notes surged above 35%. Moreover, in Argentina, the peso tumbled as high as 25%, hitting a new record-low 60 per dollar on Monday. Also, the Merval stock index had the most lost in the intraday trading. On Sunday, Macri expected to trail his rival by just a few points and pummeled the polls, with Fernandez in a 15-point lead.
by Financebroker
2
Swing trade, with researchI was doing research with bond yields for Mexico and the United States. Mexico's 10YR bonds are falling, meaning they can't pay back their debts as much. The United States 10YR is the same way. However, Mexico's interest rates are rising. Rising interest rates meaning their printing more money, making their currency less valuable. The United States Fed has had talks about lower interest rates, making the Dollar rise in value. As my analysis shows, theirs a triangle. We are nearing the bottom of the triangle, most likely, it will rise up to the top of the triangle again, there hasn't been much movement to break the triangle. I will keep adding to my position until I either hit my stop loss or take profit. I'm not sure how long it'll take, I am confident about this trade
Long
by moderngatsby
USDMXN - On its way to 18.90 and lower!The Mexican peso looks strong. It broke to the downside during the US session and bottomed today at 18.95. I see two supports. The immediate support is the 18.90 area. If we break that support, we could go to the second strong support at 18.75, especially if oil price does not fall. Also, both the daily MACD and RSI give us a bearish signal. On the other hand, if we go bullish, I expect the prices to go to 19.15. However, as I mentioned, I am more in favor of a downside.
Short
by Joel_Ochoa
USDMXN - Descending TriangleHi everyone, After the market rallied during the last week in favor of the US dollar , we sold off later in the day making the chart bearish in the short run. It seems we are forming a descending triangle . We could go to 18.75 soon, and that could be a break to 18.50, especially if oil price don't fall. On the other hand, if we go bullish , I expect the prices to go to 19.19 and then to 19.50. However, as I mentioned, I am more in favor of a downside.
Short
by Joel_Ochoa
USDMXN: Happy Easter! Hey everyone first i want to wish everyone and their family a great easter weekend! We are looking at the USDMXN pair a second time after we were anticipating a great short from the last idea. I will link it below. We clearly see that the bearish trend line is broken and retested on the 1h timeframe. The red horizontal line is a key support level, where price did change before. Divergence is also in play around this area. We are looking for long in this area only and aiming for the last highs at least. I will keep you guys updated and have a great trading week!
Long
by darian_fx