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Peso

Peso and Dollar Tap DancePeso has been Trumped by "Build the Wall". Mexico has conceded to work with US on Border "issues". Mexico lost Ford mfg to US because of Trump agenda and probably will lose more. Mexico hopes to arrange decent trade to counter effect. Mexico Central Bank sold off dollars to stymie skid . Meanwhile, speculators know that the Peso is squat . I think the Peso is squat. Technically, the Peso is squat. Technically, we are due for a retrace and the classic Triple Tap Price Action may conclude. I look for a potential reversal from it when RSI is Your Friend . Note: I mostly go long and buy breakouts on this pair, because your True Best Friend Is The Trend (and the Peso is still squat).
by dead2live
USDARS: Next up leg startingI think it's fairly certain to see more upside in USDARS right away. If you own pesos and live in Argentina,it's wise to sell them for silver/gold/dollars periodically. Now is a good time. I reccomend splitting with a bigger weight on USD bills, due to gold and silver volatility. Right now, the trade favors dollar strength, so you'd increase your dollar holdings next. You can rebalance this portfolio periodically, or even go back to pesos, and use term deposits to earn interest while the Peso strengthtens (usually down legs last a 1-3 months). Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDMXN. Correction to be activated after Wave 3 hits targetDespite my wrong prediction on USDMXN, I still believe Peso should take some territory from the USD in the upcoming weeks. Wave 3 targets have been hit today and it is a good moment to fall down in Wave 4 of 5. Notice also a huge bearish divergence on Weekly Timeframe Will short this pair once DXY reaches 100 figures as per my DXY charts posted earlier. Will set a SL order at 21 ish and target 17.25 as a TP1.
Short
by captain_smollett
1
USDMXN: Fading the irrational rally, viva Mexico!This morning I bought an $MXF stake at the open, and shorted USDMXN at 20.0022. I think we might be in the presence of an 'ending diagonal triangle', or terminal wedge, in Elliott Wave parlance, in particular according to the Neowave rules. If that's the case, we will a see brutal rally in the Peso, sending USDMXN down to 16.43 in approximately the time the arrow indicates on chart. My clients are long MXF but not in the USDMXN trade, it is a higher risk trade, so only take it if you have higher risk tolerance and don't risk over 1% on it. The initial move in equities and the peso made absolutely no sense in my opinion after discussing it with Tim West. We've been buying on weakness today, along with my clients and the people over at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom -and with great results if I may add-. Apparently Carl Icahn tagged along, buying a neat 1 billion worth of stocks today. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
7
USDMXN. Chart has predicted Hillary Clinton´s victory?It´s been quite fashionable to analyze the USDMXN pair since Mr. Donald Trump has become an official candidate for the presidency of the United States. All his promises had strong influence on the Peso and every time we have any news on Mrs. Hillary Clinton´s advances in the presidential race, Peso recovers strongly against the US Dollar. But if we check a long-term chart, the pair has been trading in a channel since 1994. Currently, the quote is at the top of the channel an also at the top of the fork built from lows of 2011. Looks like the market is ready to push back and that may mean a victory of Mrs. Hillary Clinton has already been priced in time ago. Obviously, any strong advances of Mr. Trump will push the Peso lower and a possible victory in the elections would bring the Peso to the new historical lows against the USD
Short
by captain_smollett
Long Peso Because Technicals and ElectionPreemptive note: This is non partisan analysis. Please do not waste my time (or yours) by saying anything about the polls not being accurate. That's self-indulging conspiracy theories that have no basis in any fact. Now onto the reasonings. 1) Price currently sitting at the .618 fib retrace. You can see this clearly on the chart. This is a level to look for a reversal. A short is thus worth it in terms of risk reward. Yes, the peso is right above this level as I am writing this, but I have absolute full-faith that this level (or the .764 retrace) will hold. 2) Hillary is still likely going to win because of demographics and how the electoral college works. The Peso's weakening in the last few days against the dollar is solely because of the market adjusting its expectations from a sure Clinton victory to more of a "meh" perspective. Possible problems with this: Trump winning or the Fed inexplicably does not raise rates. I'm willing to accept those as unlikely risks and thus take the trade
Short
by zkstonks
3
USDARS: Update, we broke the key levelThis doesn't bode well for my local currency, the Argentine Peso. It's possible this week triggers a weekly time at mode uptrend signal, that forecasts a rally to at least 16.052 within ten weeks, starting with this week as #1. With the fundamental events this week, it's possible this is the start of the acceleration and breakout of this range, specially now that RgMov has shifted into an uptrend in the daily chart, and that we're above the fundamental key levels originated from local events (presidential speeches). Good luck to us all (mostly Argentinian residents that have to deal with hyperinflation). Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Target is 18.744We are at a very critical juncture in the market, and it's possible to see increased chances of a rally in oil and equities, and probably a dollar decline against emerging markets currencies, at least vs the yen, aussie and canadian. Argentina's monetary policy might make the selling pressure persist though, and we might see this target hit in little time. The consequences might be harsh, with price increases, and increased costs for employers, with improbable raises in the minimum wage, or at least not enough to accomodate basic expenses any middle class or lower family might have. That being said, I will update this chart if I change my view, for now, this is the setup on chart, and what makes sense with my country's fundamentals. Energy costs increase, despite falling crude, add to it rising crude, and it's even worse, so let's see how it pans out. This was a very rough adjustment, after years of holding a ceiling artificially, which did have its costs too. Good luck, fellow Argentinians. Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Possible correction in the USDCOPThe inverse correlaion between oil and the dollar remains , therefore fell last week nearly 140 pesos. With falls on Thursday and Friday a pattern of bearish candles known as "Techo en Pinzas" was formed. This move leaves the 3,320 as a resistance . While the dollar does not close above 3,320 , there is a likelihood of a correction towards 3,120 or 3,060 ; Prices in this area are above previous minimum and the uptrend line , which act as support areas. If the dollar closed above 3,330 , it is likely that the upward trend comes back and the dollars set a new high.
Short
by JulianVillamizar
5