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Petrobras

Short Petrobras based on an unsustainable rallyFundamentals Petrobras has seen an 80% rally through March, which is unsustainable. The reason for this is because the rally is based on the possible [ impeachment of president Dilma Rousseff, whose policies adversely affected the Brazilian oil market. While this is good news for the Brazilian oil company, the fundamentals of the company simply do not fit with such a rally. It still has the largest debt level in the entire oil industry at about £75 billion; it will continue to have legal costs incurred from a corruption scandal; oil prices are still too low to be strongly profitable, and in my opinion will move lower to about $30, which will further fuel this rally to be pared. Technicals The stock price has hit a very strong level of resistance in the 4.50 and 4.75 price range, as indicated by the horizontal black lines, and is likely to rebound off this. There has also been very strong bearish divergence on the RSI, which is all indicated by the thin black arrows.
NYSE:PBR.AShort
by olly_price
Technical and Fundamental Analysis of PBR (Petrobrás)Fundamental keypoints: (Translated from portuguese) * New management: The new finance minister shows that is able to change the actual situation, which makes the market enthusiastic and hopeful * While Dilma said the actual president is going to stay for the moment, there are rumors saying she'll (Which is Maria das Graça Foster) be replaced by Vale's actual president, which also makes the market hopeful. * Although there are new reports, most of the media forgot about the incident already. The incident being a lot of reports of corruption inside the corporation, one of the most scandalous reports of corruption on Dilma's last government. (2010-2014) * Most of the debt is being cleared on recent discussions about opening a new paper, or trying to re-finance it with investors. * The target price most brokers and banks that still recommend this stock are aiming for is from 14 to 18 R$. (Reais) * If there's a new paper on the market, this one will drop it's value fast. So be aware of the risk. Technical Keypoints: * Most of the bullish movement is because of fundamental price action, while it applies itself accordingly with technical analysis, considering the following: double bottom, probably followed by an harmonic pattern that indicates bearish behavior. Which means that short term we could expect a rise, then a drop. In the long term, I'd expect it to go sideways, followed by some bumps. If it goes out of the harmonic pattern, you could expect a continuation of the bearish trend (downtrend). Portuguese text: * Nova gestão Dilma: Ministério da Fazenda demonstra entusiasmo e mudanças em prol do mercado * Otimismo em relação a troca de presidente da Petrobrás, devido a pressão política em cima da Maria das Graças Foster * Murilo Ferreira é cotado como possível substituto, isso cria expectativa para com o mercado * Apesar de novas denúncias, mídia não comenta mais tanto do assunto, algumas corretoras ainda mantém indicação de compra * Negocia-se com credores as pendencias atuais e estão tentando evitar riscos sobre dívida em recentes reuniões * Preço médio cotado por análise fundamental é entre 14 e 18 R$ (Alvo) * Dissolução dos papéis atualmente pode acarretar falta de investimento futuro (?) That's it, trade safe.
NYSE:PBRLong
by Ice_
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