Valeant Pharma: Moving back downVRX may, at first glance, look like the bloodshed is over and is moving to recovery. Not just yet. The daily MACD and StochRSI are inching toward sell indicators (see screenshot) and despite the markets upward movements today (Mon 12/14), VRX's recovery was pretty modest as more shareholders exit as they see the fall incoming.
Bottom line: Put options are a possability for short-term holding if you have the risk appetite. If you don't, then definitely wait to buy (back) in if you have been considering it. If you're holding this in hopes of shaving some of your losses or bought thinking it was recovery time, sell. Sometimes the most profitable thing you can do is take a loss.
VRX's financials aren't bad by any means, but they're product pipeline is pretty weak. Consider Addyi, the "female viagra": in the first month on the market only 224 rx's for it were sold. The market is very narrow since it is only considered safe in post-menopausal women who don't drink and think its pretty dramatic side-effect profile is worth the risk. VRX has even hired on a crisis-management firm in response to antipicated F.T.C action in regard to their pricing practices.
Valeant should have never reached as high as it did and now the correction is coming. VRX has been around a while but thier $31bln market cap is absurd. They have a price to earnings of 54(!), an earning per share <$2, and still have a fairly high debt-to-assets ratio. Compare those stats to Shire who is $38bln but have an earning per share of $15, and a price-to-earnings of only $12.21.
Pharmaceutical
HART: Going back up so soon?Harvard Apparatus Regentive Technology is a bioscience company working on more natural heart valve replacements and other pretty cool biotech stuff. However my interest is because the way they are ramping up for another go after moving from $0.60 to $3.25 in less than a month. This is shaping up to be your typical "head and shoulders" scenario. HART's 1day MACD only crossed into negative on 12/7, giving the appearance that they are ready to fall back down. However it bounced at the 50% mark ($1.90) and StochRSI is already showing a cross upward.
What makes it really interesting is if you check out the 4hour or 2 hour you can see the MACD already coming back to positive. (see bottom image)
The markets are rough given the fear of a rate hike along with some 'cooling off' given the build up of overheating from past 2-3 years. However, at such a low price HART could be a worthwhile option play at a $5 strike a few months out. The option route would allow a relatively low bet--I need to look at the chain but I'm guessing as little as $20 a contract---with a short-term opportunity if the 2hr/4hr MACDs stay positive and bring the 1 day up; and a medium term opportunity if the indicators and the stock can't handle the bear market---HART has enough room and volatility to pay off later as well.
Even at $2.35 a share it's a good, cheap play.
