A little jump before big dump ?!Still bullish on AZN.L but ascending broadening wedge :
- Need to break 7 580$ resistance
- RSI divergence
- MM20 > MM50
Statiscally in 80% of cases, the exit of this pattern is bearish.
So, I will open a short position around 7 400 $. (TPs on chart)
Always 2 gap to fill :
- Around 6 930 $
- Around 6 550 $
Happy trading
Pharmaceuticals
Ascending Triangle Breakout from Double Bottom for up trend ideaAfter years of going from top-left to bottom-right, there was a Double Bottom bounce with an Ascending Triangle currently sitting at the top of bounce. NASDAQ pre-market volume is quite nice, and the weekly volume has been consistent with price movement direction. The weekly EMA and SMA are moving from vertical to horizontal, the last three weekly candles are currently green, and the angle from the lowest weekly opening to the current price is pointing (from left to right) in an up direction. Good luck to all.
MNK: DEAT CAT BOUNCE OPPORTUNITYMNK is dead or almost dead. Often times there is a dead cat bounce in stocks like these, as 'everybody' gets the same idea to throw some money at it.
This is a high risk scenario but with potentially good risk to reward ratios.
Disclaimers : I've clearly said this is high risk. This not advice to trade in securities. I am simply showing what may happen from a perspective of speculative opinion only. Your losses are your own if you enter a trade on this. Kindly sue yourself if you lose your money.
DRG - Pharmaceuticals Finding Relative StrengthDRG broke out of a consolidation period during yesterday's trading & continued its bullish momentum today. The industry is also beginning to find relative strength against the SPX. This could be an industry worth looking around in to find some stocks to provide alpha if it continues to strengthen.
FOMX - Foamix Pharma Reversal Pattern FormedOn October 18th, 2019, the FDA approved Amzeeq, otherwise known as FMX101 for the Israel based pharmaceutical company, Foamix. Amzeeq happens to be the first and only topical monocyline treatment to be used on acne patients. In anticipation of approval for this new product, shares of FOMX rallied from $2.53 per share on 10/08/2019 all the way up to highs around $3.63 per share. As it turns out, the anticipation for the approval is now correcting lower to what seemed to be overbought conditions in anticipation. FOMX 101 is expected to be entering into the market early next year with the hopes of being on shelves for January 2020. This new topical treatment will be entering the dermatology market which happens to be worth several billion dollars. This is very good news for a company that has been anticipating FDA approval for several years, these are make or break moments for new companies.
If you look at the chart above, I posted what seems to be a hammer which I am waiting for the end of the day for confirmation. If this pattern holds, this may be a reversal pattern to hop into FOMX to join the reversal towards December price targets between $3-$6 dollars. Watch to see if the hammer pattern holds, then watch to see if the reversal in confirmed. If we see a reversal, we may be looking towards short terms gains of 25% and higher. Option markets are pricing in a high volume of $4 and $5 strike price calls for december.
Cheers,
AC
LABU - watch the volume and trend lineBiotech has had a hard time of it lately due to both political risks related to the election and litigation risks from the opioid epidemic. All of this, of course, on top of broad market weakness due to the China trade war.
However, biotech earnings are better than most sectors this season, so the bear market likely won't continue forever. I've drawn a trend line on my 1-hour chart and am watching for an upward breakout. Today we had some nice volume come in as we recovered from oversold on the daily chart and achieved our first green day for some time. However, we fell short of the minimum 6 million shares I'd like to see to signify a true reversal. We also fell short of breaking my trend line.
I expect LABU will fall to about 25.50 before it's likely to get a real bounce.
High-risk, high-reward drug catalyst play on ASRTAssertio therapeutics is slated to get an FDA ruling on its new drug application for cosyntropin depot by October 19. If the FDA approves the drug, the stock could move up significantly. Assertio has an 8.9/10 Equity StarMine Summary Score and is rated extremely undervalued by S&P Capital IQ. Despite relatively good earnings last quarter, the stock price is down due to a stock offering after the earnings report. Assertio also has a lot of exposure to litigation or regulation around opioids, because its most successful drug is an opiate. A new drug approval could shake the stock out of its lethargy and give it a really nice boost. Short interest in the stock is reasonably high, at 15% of float, which could contribute to a short squeeze. Of course, failure to get approval would send the stock tumbling.
J&J vs opioids (Johnson is winning)Fundamental analysis
In one of the first state opioid cases, an Oklahoma judge ruled against Johnson & Johnson, awarding the state $572 million, well below the over $17 billion the state was seeking in damages.
Meaning... out of the 17 billion, they lost only 3.36%, and they expect to appeal the case, probably lowering this amount.
Technical analysis
On a technical analysis, I still think the risk reward ratio is too small to enter a position now. But technicals are good (not great). So I am keeping this on my watchlist.
ALKS BUY 03.09.2019BUY signal at 20.98 $
Alkermes plc is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the researching, developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products that are designed to address medical needs of patients in therapeutic areas.
If you want to see more history of this strategy, I will able to show you if you request me.
ATTENTION this strategy may has downtrend about 20%, so you can split your buy order, that you have not big downtrend.
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You use these signals inside your strategies at your own risk.
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GlaxoSmithKline - Top of the range, limited upside.SELL – GLAXOSMITHKLINE (GSK)
GlaxoSmithKline PLC is a global healthcare company. The Company operates through two segments: Pharmaceuticals and Vaccines. The Company focuses on its research across six areas: Respiratory diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/infectious diseases, Vaccines, Immuno-inflammation, Oncology and Rare diseases.
Fundamentals
GlaxoSmithKline has shifted strategy in recent months by increasing spend on science research and development by 12%, this has been seen by some as too little to late. AstraZeneca implemented a similar plan 5 years ago. Revenues were flat at GSK in the most recent market update. The timing of the additional investment is also under scrutiny as net debt increased from £23.9bn to £28.7bn. The share price feels a bit heavy here and it could be time to cash in.
Best Broker Target Price: 1750p (Jefferies 23/04/2019)
Worst Broker Target Price: 1575p (Deutsche Bank 08/07/2019)
Technical Analysis
The share price of GlaxoSmithKline has been trading in a huge range since mid-2015. The price has gyrated between 1227-1745 for many months and there appears to have been another failure at the upper end of the range. The week commencing 29th July 2019 ended with a inverted hammer candle, this is a bearish signal and suggests further downside could be seen in the short term. It is possible that we could see a continuation of the range.
Recommendation: Sell between 1600-1750p
Stop: 1780p
Target: 1230p
Pharmaceuticals showing strength this earnings seasonIt's been a banner quarter for large-cap pharmaceutical companies. We've had earnings beats and guidance upgrades from GlaxoSmithKline, Biogen, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, Celgene, and Procter & Gamble. More earnings beats may be coming, with Amgen reporting today after market and Amarin tomorrow. In my opinion, the whole sector is set to surge, and the leveraged Direxion Biotech Bull ETF could be a very strong play this quarter if you can find a good entry point.
AMGN attempting trend line breakout ahead of earningsAmgen is attempting a breakout above its one-month downward trend line this morning. I will wait to enter until I see a change in volume. Currently there's bearish divergence on the volume profile, which suggests that this may correct downward before confirming the breakout.
Amgen reports earnings tomorrow, and has a positive earnings surprise prediction from Zacks. Amgen has beaten analyst estimates 7 of 8 quarters in the last 2 years. The company's recent price weakness and great valuation (15.8% below the average analyst price target) makes it a good candidate for a pop on an earnings beat.
Biogen ascending triangleBiogen has formed an ascending triangle. With strong earnings and a guidance upgrade, the catalysts favor upward breakout. However, certain aspects of Biogen's business are struggling and face increasing competition, so the stock could also fall. I will play oscillations within the triangle by buying and selling crossovers of the green line, with stop losses in place. I will also play the eventual breakout.
Zynerba Pharmaceuticals in upward channelZynerba Pharmaceuticals has been surging since it got added to the Russell 2000 and 3000 indices. It is in an upward channel, just broke trendline resistance, and looks strong on the indicators, including high buying volume. It will meet short-term resistance around 16.47. Look for a break above that level on volume.
Biogen looking for gap fill breakoutBIIB is up this morning on an extremely strong earnings beat and a guidance upgrade. BIIB has an upside gap to fill, with some clearance on the volume profile. That should make it fairly easy for BIIB to keep moving upward to 280 once it breaks decisively above 245.35 resistance.
Near 20-year lows, Amneal is still too riskyGeneric drug maker Amneal has been slowly melting down since 2015, falling from $50 per share to today's closing price of $3.44. Amneal makes money, though it missed estimates last quarter by about $0.04 per share.
S&P Capital IQ rates it an undervalued, high quality, and financially healthy company, but I think that overstates the case. In my opinion this company is at real financial risk. Amneal's cash reserve shrank by 3/4 year-over-year, while its accounts receivable grew in an equal amount. That suggests that while Amneal's assets may look good on paper, it may not be very liquid. Amneal may need to do a better job with collections. Furthermore, ongoing litigation over price fixing and the opioid epidemic exposes Amneal to potential damages of $1.2 billion, almost its total current assets.
Amneal has some support at its current share price as it approaches lows from back in 2008 and 2002-2003. It also got an analyst upgrade today from SVB Leerink after the analytics firm determined that of the major generic drug makers, Amneal has the least exposure to that ongoing litigation I mentioned. (Endo Phramaceuticals has the most exposure, and Teva comes in second.) However, given the enormity of the drug makers' exposure, saying Amneal is the least exposed doesn't mean much.
If the litigation plays out in the generic drug makers' favor, Amneal will be a great stock available at bargain basement pricing. Until then, this stock is much too risky. It may continue to fall to its 1998 lows of under $1 per share.
Look for Merck to respect trend line before enteringMerck ended the day near the bottom of its parallel channel, right above a high-volume support node at 8.19 and a trend line that's parallel with channel bottom. After hours, the price has moved below both the support and the trend line, but in my experience, after hours moves don't necessarily mean much. The real test will be tomorrow after market open. If the trend line breaks, then the price will test the bottom of the channel. That will be an opportunity for an entry with a tight stop loss.
Merck had a product launch after hours today (a smart pet feeder) that could help move the price upward, but honestly this stock has so many catalysts that I'm not sure investors pay much attention to them anymore. This one is pretty minor in the scheme of things. More important factors are Merck's strong analyst ratings and long history of earnings beats. One possible downside catalyst is Merck's slightly negative Earnings Surprise Prediction from Zacks.