Celgene ($celg) if tomorrow...if only tomorrow....Weekly chart: we have the downtrend channel clearly defined on a weekly basis. On a monthly basis we have already had a minimum of swing with a dragon fly bullish, on a daily chart some signs of an incoming uptrend as described in the latest posts...but tomorrow...tomorrow is where we play the game with the last resistence in place at 86.72 dollars. Once we get out of the channel and we leave this solid resistance it will mean that Celgene will be ready to come back to war.
I will be long in case the price breaks such thresold because signs of long will get really clear.
Pharmaceuticals
TEVA is recharging the battery waiting next earnings release ($TEVA) was accelerating the uptrend but since some days it has come back on its path inside a bullish flag. It is important to note that next week earnings will be released so high volatility should be expected. Masch is about to turn on bullish mode RSI is quite down and vortex is neutral.
I might expect that some investors will get long before the earnings pushing the price up but it is just an hypothesis. So far we are still inside the range with lower and upper edges showed on the chart.
LONG TERM LONG ON OTSUKA PHARMA!I will not go into details on this one. Bottom line is, I am impressed with Otsuka's vision and its recent developments - and many other things which I will not explain here. I will be entering a long position soon, watching the action at these levels. This is will be one of the stocks I would recommend to add to your stocks portfolio.
-Keep it Real-
Alexion (AXLN): new entry longTime to raise up the head has come for ALexion pharmaceuticals. After some years in a trading range and a never ending downtrend since 2015 (black line) price has broken it up reaching recently 135.87 dollars. As showned in the graph we have an important technical signal which is the cross between MA 50 and MA 200. We have also the RSI confirming tghe momentum and an entry buy from vortex.
Volume is neither low nor high but enough to confirm the uptrend, given trendlines and the mix of the other indicators. Price has borken the dynamic resistence at 128.41, the short term trading range YTD.
Biogen Earnings Swing July 2018Biogen's (344.10 at close at the date of this writing) and Eisai's recent success with BAN24O1, an experimental medication for Alzheimer's which is currently in mid-stage clinical trials, in addition to a recent price target raise by Citi, and overall bullish analyst sentiment led to a rally between July 6-9, 2018.
Although the clinical trial's success was certainly reason for bullish sentiment, it ran too far too fast and indicators pointed towards to a sell off. I thus opened put options on July 9, expiring July 13 2018 (currently in the money). We are now only about two weeks away from Biogen's earning report. After studying historical data and charts, I've found that there is often a sell off prior to earnings OR there is a run up then a slight sell off right before the earnings date. I've annotated the chart with periods that indicate this.
In this case, I believe downward momentum will continue followed by a slight rally pre-earnings then a sell off. Opening JUL20 puts may be a smart move at this time.
In the long term, Biogen -0.21% is very scalable and overall is very promising. I agree with Citi's PT of 371.
www.wsj.com
Playing the gap with pharmaceuticals, Lipocine Inc (LPCN)Pharmaceuticals can take nasty falls if their products fail to pass FDA muster. These falls can provide nice opportunities for swing traders to play the gaps that are left by these sharp moves of price action. Lipocine Inc (LPCN) took a nasty dive on the 8th of May, leaving behind a pretty nice 31% gap that will eventually get filled. Since the drop, LPCN has formed a textbook ascending wedge in it's current longer term bearish downtrend, signaling higher prices in the short term. If this wedge continues to hold through it's formation, the gap will be filled where the top of the wedge and the top of the gap intersect (A). Because the ascending wedge is a bearish continuation in an overall downtrend, the price will eventually fall back down (B). However it is also a good possibility that LPCN will fall out of it's wedge before it even fills the gap completely, as price action on average tends to break out ~60% of the way into the wedge, which is well before the gap fill (A).
Celgene is under the radarCelg is under the radar because after an insane downtrend, calm and a bit of optimism is getting back. Price is consolidating in a narrow range and on friday we have seen a first endeavour to break the flag with no success. This has happend because MA 50 has acted like a resistence.
If the price breaks the wall of 80/80.50 with momentum I expect a new buy long with a new uptrend. As showed price has never tried to under 74 dollars since several weeks, plus volatility is really squeezed. I will carefully watch the graph along the next weeks (watch and wait).
TEVA up trend is acceleratingAs showed in the picture trend is accelerating as a sign of streght for TEVA. After some consolidation pauses we have a situation where RSI in pointing up, MACD non really clear as we have had a lateral movement, volatility stop positive.
Red trendline is showing the acceleration. TP around 27 first and 30 dollars after. Despite some up and down of nasdaq, Teva has held the hit continuing the lateral movement rather than going down, another sign of strenght at the moment.
GlaxoSmithKline ShortShort from $42.01.
- Market Cap: $102B
- Beta: 0.83
- P/B: 20.42
- GSK’s consumer healthcare segment sales were down in 2017 due to a slowdown in global growth of its key consumer categories.
- They have also faced pricing pressure from competition and slow down in emerging markets. Although GSK have several candidates in different stages of development, the company has been set back on numerous occasions by the regulators. The largest setbacks in the past few quarters include the phase 3 data on chronic coronary heart disease, Duchenne muscular dystrophy candidate, kydrisa failing to meet the primary end point in a phase 3 study.
- The company phases massive competition from small start-ups to large pharmaceutical corporations. There consumer healthcare segment faces competition from big companies like Johnson & Johnson, Colgate Palmolive, Procter & Gamble and Pfizer.
- Advair, one of GSK’s largest revenue providers is facing intense competition in the asthma and COPD market from AstraZeneca and Merck respiratory drugs.
NeroTree Capital rates GlaxoSmithKline PLC as a SELL with a price target of $38.
$TEVA - Berkshire breakout? Disclaimer, TEVA is in a very bad financial position, with dwindling cashflows and large debt. Buffet has always been the king of "value investing", hence why a position in Teva isn't surprising from him - it's most likely that he sees the company as severely undervalued and is entering into stages of repair.
Buffet's new position in Teva was widely publicised this week:
fortune.com
markets.businessinsider.com
finance.yahoo.com
Just after Buffet disclosed the position, Teva announced the U.S. release of the QVAR Redihaler Inhalation Aerosol.
www.streetinsider.com
-new form of asthma inhalation treatment
-breath actuated
I don't think this is too important. I'd much rather to follow his other position into AAPL rather than TEVA
Dechra Pharmaceuticals Fake-BreakoutLast post: June 3rd. See chart .
Review: Price was approaching the resistance level.
Update: Since the last post, price broke above the resistance level but has failed to stay there and has now fallen back below that level. The breakout was a fake breakout.
Conclusion: We need price to break the resistance level again and stay above it before looking for trading opportunities.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
Dechra Pharmaceuticals Looks Set To Breakout SoonLast post: Feb 28th. See chart .
Review: Price had broken a resistance level with a strong move to the upside.
Update: Price continued to trend higher but is now in a period of consolidation.
Conclusion: We will be waiting for a breakout of the resistance of the consolidation zone before considering a trade.
Any comments or questions, do not hesitate to leave them below. Give us the thumbs up if you share our sentiments!
Sublime Trading
ABBV - when having all your eggs in one basket works outAbbVie's bread winner is Humira - this drug accounts for the majority of their revenue. However, they did forecast that by 2020, revenue from Humira will be $21B - which is about 75% of their 2017 revenue of $28.22B.
Since AbbVie depends so heavily on their flagship, their stock is fairly volatile, giving this play more of a risk. Consider well-hedged positions (like married puts), or at least ITM leap calls.
Small Pharma Big Backers and Partners - LONG SNG (Synairgen)Prudent Drug Discovery Company
Low market cap ( appox £13m at time of writing ).
Issues shares very rarely ( last placing nearly four years ago ).
Has material interest in its work from larger partners ( Pharmaxis ).
Sold interest in LOXL2 programme for £5m to Pharmaxis in December.
Pharmaxis continues to fund and develop LOXL2 inhibitors and Synairgen retains interest across all fibrotic indications at circa 17% of all partnering proceeds.
Potential of drug appears across multiple uses now ( not just lung-related ) and indications from Pharmaxis looking very good.
Recent interviews from Pharmaxis management suggest a good chance of a deal with major pharma in H2.
Low free float in the stock ( 60% in hands of major shareholders ).
Major funds holding ( Woodford Investment Management and Lansdowne Partners ).
High profile investors holding stakes ( Richard Griffiths and Leonard Licht ).
These high profile investors have been raising, rather than reducing their stakes in the company, periodically.
For a risky smallcap biotech stock it appears well placed to survive and thrive, regardless of the short term success of a sale/licencing deal of LOXL2 by Pharmaxis, making it considerably less risky than most biotech stocks in the long term. However, the indications and noises being made about LOXL2 by Pharmaxis are looking as positive as you could hope for, and backed up by them putting their money where their mouth is in the first place and increasing their stake for cash.
Teva is now a buyAfter a couple of years where price has persistently followed the downtrend, last week Teva broke up such dynamic hreshold. Price has confirmed such trendline with a hammer 3 days ago at 17.04 dollars. Moreover we have the cross on the daily pattern between MA 50 and MA 200 turning to bullish set-up. Q1 earnings has been released beating expectations. SAR is positive and supertrend recently turned into bullish conformation as well. Trump is due to talk about drug prices this week but I don't deem Teva will be harshly impacted, because of the type of business. On a daily basis the hammer of three days ago confirmed by two green candles bear witness to a short term reversal. TP around 21.50/21.80
LABU long ideaLABU setting up for another run higher? Indicators would suggest it. Buy the dip...........
MYL a buy opportunityAfter the breach of the multiyears downtrend prices have jumped till 47.68 dollars. We have seen a retracement according to the uptrend in progress. The price level around 39-40 is a stong support where a long can be setup. SL can be put a bit lower just underneath the MA 200 at 38 dollars. MA 200 is still under MA 50 and MACD is crossing over for a bullish setup. On top of that, price has reacted promptly after the NASDAQ sell off the day before yesterday.
Shaping the Future - an analysis on GWPHGood Afternoon and welcome to an analysis on GWPH.
Looking at the chart we can see that GWPH broke through the support line on 2/22 and is now testing it as the current Major Resistance line. We have fallen to the Major Support line on 3/2 and bounced back up to touch the resistance line again. We almost looked as though we were going to break into the resistance line however all indicators show we are heading back down, at least for the short time.
Looking at the DMI the +DM and the -DM touched briefly on 3/9 but then like a magnet split away from each other. The ADX is still above a 25 (barely), but nevertheless it is still above the signal line showing we are in a strong trend, and that current trend has been bearish. Plus the RSI hit my projected downward line and turned to head back south helping to confirm we indeed could drop further. The MACD is relatively flat and has turned up but it is still below out signal line as well.
From the looks of the chart at the moment we could definitely head back down to touch the support line again. A good entry point would be between $109 and $111 with placing a stop loss just below the support line to minimize loss.
Since Sep. of 2016 we have been in a trading range from roughly $95 - $140. Currently we are on the lower end of that spectrum. My personal opinion, with more doors opening for the legalization of marijuana in different states in the US and in other countries, I believe this GWPH is a good long hold. They have an A+ team, and I believe they will shape the future of cannabis-based therapeutics.
Happy Trading :)
Much Love
DustyPH
*all comments are welcome*
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell***
Anthera Pharmaceutical ... -80%This is biotech "at its best".
An expert review board gave this drug an approval of passing, with a shelf offering of about $100 millions.
And now ... Sollpura has just failed to achieve the desired results in a Phase 3 clinical study ...
Luckily, I closed one trade with a win for this stock.
Conclusion: Stay away from small biotech firms!
SRNE on the way UP, bullish to $8.40?SRNE looks bullish.
So far this has been climbing up my original projections, however, exceeding my highest highs as this stock continues to display an extension of wave 3.
IF in fact this current cycle of waves is only a WAVE 3 (per Elliot Wave analysis and rules), then this may reach and exceed the $21.00 mark!
So here are the targets if this count is valid:
Target 1 = $8.40
Target 2 = $13.87
Target 3 = $ 21.00 - $23.50
