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Lightwave Logic LWLG - Hourly July 2021The new shelf registration (basically 10% dilution) could potentially create more weak hand selling/stop-loss raids, leading to a PPS possibly as low as that 4.50 area. That said, the RSI is showing solid support on the 1 hour chart and the bullish channel support line is still intact. I would love to see the new 50% swing (17.24-7.31) retrace of 12.28 get tested this week. Our new potential trading range could be between $7-$17 until official revenue guidance is provided. Given what we know here, a market cap of $1b-$2b feels about right IMO. The 3.15-17.24-7.31 fib extension is pointing us to a target zone of $21-$30.
LLong
by ScottEff
2H Growth & Acquisition Friendly (PT: $9.00)Second half of the year has already been projected by various telecom companies and suppliers to be strong and accelerated compared to the first half. Seasonally weak Q1 numbers came in almost across the board. However, NPTN managed to not do as badly as most had anticipated, hence the growth in March fueled by positive sentiment that momentum was returning. NPTN has repeatedly shown that it will dip under its overall trend lines (red+yellow) and return fiercely for some gains. It will take a stable, forward looking market with growth and momentum to get it back to $9. However, in the short term, I can easily see it retracing back up towards $7.50 before some profits are taken and the price drops back around $6.50. NPTN guided for a solid Q2, though the ZTE news may have a bit of a negative effect on it. However, that news has probably been baked into the current price, which is in part why it's dropped to where it is now. Ignore the Huawei noise, as China talks are at least still neutral, but moving forward again with additional talks and likely more extensions for negotiations. Q3 guidance should remain the same, specifically focused on getting margins up with flat revenue compared to Q2. Anything above that, and we've got a rocket that will easily coast to $8 I think. Sales and growth into its strongest areas of 400G and 600G continue, with Verizon and others quickly deploying and growing 5G capabilities that NPTN participates in. Additionally, now that LITE has chosen to buy OCLR, the speculation that NPTN could be acquired escalated, so owning a piece of NPTN has additional leverage.
NLong
by N3utra
AAOI: Fool Me Twice? Ignore The Hype, Wait For Trust (PT $24.50)The recent run up in AAOI stock price is a familiar story if you've been tracking or involved in the company since last year. What was once a glorious shining star from a parabolic blowout, quickly became a bubble of sorts and collapsed. The stock is tainted because of leadership's comments and weak guidance last quarter. The only reason to run the stock up is to profit and then watch it come back down, which I believe it most likely will. This is a volatile market full of excuses to bring any and all names down and AAOI is a very, very easy target. I personally took a $70k loss last quarter on an investment I started back on 9/19/2017. I'd averaged down and waited for news and the tide to turn. A nice chunk of my portfolio ended up being allocated within the position, so it was dead money just sitting there for over 4 months. I think the company's technology, manufacturing capabilities and products (margins) are phenomenal. I think their execution to leverage their strengths and positions within the industry, plus their credibility, are found wanting though, and that's the real killer holding the stock back. AAOI was dead money until the recent run-up. It's not going to grow back into the $40s without some serious and flawless momentum. You have an insanely high amount of short interest always playing against you. No matter what gains the price makes, they'll bring it back down. On top of that, ANY bad news will just send the stock down even further. It's already hit the mid $20s. People have been calling for prices into the teens without hesitation. I'm inclined to believe they'll push it down there if they want to on a bad, upcoming call. The volatility in both the price and management's lack of transparency is not good for anyone seeking stability or trying to recoup money lost within the stock. Again, any good news will be processed and then cast aside because of the short interest. Any bad news will be magnified and blow the price down. Management made some really weird comments in their last call that make the specter of dishonesty rear its head. A lot of people already don't trust what they say, so you're playing against that as well. Leadership in ANYTHING has to be solid for any entity to move forward.When that starts getting questioned, it does not bode well for results or for participants. Guidance for Q1 was terrible. Almost all the commentary and other positive catalysts for the company are taking place in the second half of 2018. June is about where the stock will finally start to test whether it can go back up, and that's assuming nothing crazy or weird hits the company again. My thoughts are that this quarter will meet expectations and guide for some growth, but it will only keep the stock back in the $30s. Anything less and it'll be back down to $24.50, maybe less if sh*t hits the fan. The short interest is just so brutal and easy for people to hold down that it's a struggle. If the stock starts to rebound, stabilize and hold, positive news starts rolling in (FB extends their contract into Year 2) and the short interest starts to decrease after June, I'll look at possibly buying again. That's a ton of 'ifs' and a great company shouldn't have to instill that kind of hesitation in investors. It'll be another year before the stock even tries touching back to the $40s or $50s. Management has to rebuild trust, their execution has to blow the competition away and they have to chase out the massive short interest. Please be careful with this one. The risk is extremely high. Don't bother "hoping" for some quick cash. Find the stability and begin a position then if guidance is promising.
NASDAQ:AAOIShort
by N3utra