THE KOG REPORT - The week ahead for GOLDTHE KOG REPORT
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the price to retest the new highs created, and as long as the price wasn’t beaten, we would be looking to short the market back down into the 2165 levels and below that 2150. As you can see, we have another point to point move, with a low set in at 2150 for the week, giving the perfect short. We had planned the levels to go long in the KOG Report, and during the week we said we would stick with our plans to long the market from the level shown on the chart, which again gave us a tremendous pip capture into the resistance level.
A fantastic week on Gold, with Excalibur playing it’s part as well KOG’s levels and bias for the day and week completing. Not only on Gold, but the numerous other pairs we analyse, share and trade.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
This week is an important week on the markets with lots of news the later part of the week, mainly the big one on Wednesday being FOMC. We could see an aggressive start to the week with price again wanting for establish a baseline pre-event, so we’ll be looking for spikes in either direction until we settle. To start the week we have a support level below 2145-7 which if attacked and supported could give an opportunity to long the market back up towards the levels of 2165-7 which ideally what we want to see. Now, this price point is important, as an extension of the move can lead into the 2170-75 region, but we must stay below this level if bears want to again attack the lower levels again. So, for that reason, it’s this level that we will potentially want to see a short opportunity develop back down into the 2150 level and below that 2145. We'll access price action if we get to these levels.
For this week we’re giving the range of 2210 resistance and 2135 support, which is huge and price definitely has potential to play it. There is an order region 2172-2152 which is where we could see accumulation pre-event, so please be mindful of this and try not to get caught trading mid-range.
Please note, price breaking above that 2175 level and holding will result in that 2210 region being attempted and price breaking below 2145 will see us getting a deeper pullback into the 2110-15 region before another RIP in the making!
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bearish below 2175 with targets below 2150 and below that 2145
Bullish on break of 2175 with targets above 2195 and above that 2210
The market will always give you opportunities, either to get in, get out, or to manage your trades, so please make sure your money and risk management is up to scratch if you’re trading these markets.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
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GBPNZD - Looking For Buy Setups ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last GBPNZD, we were looking for sell setups around the 2.16 resistance.
GBPNZD is trading lower and it is approaching the lower orange trendline.
Moreover, the zone 2.1 is a strong support.
🏹 So the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
As per my trading style:
As GBPNZD approaches the lower orange circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
The MASK Has Fallen 🤿 Now What?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
MASK is overall bullish trading inside the rising channel in blue, and we are currently in a correction phase approaching the lower blue trendline.
Moreover, the zone 3.5 is a support zone .
🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue trendline.
As per my trading style:
As MASK is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
NZDCAD - Trend-Following Sell Setup ⬇️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
on DAILY: Left Chart
NZDCAD has been overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in orange and now it is sitting around the upper orange trendline again, so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
on H1: Right Chart
For the bears to take over, we need a momentum candle close below the last major low in gray.
Meanwhile, until the sell is activated, NZDCAD can still trade higher and even break the orange trendline upward.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
IDEA - Shift In Momentum In Action!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
After an over-extended bearish trendline, IDEA has been trading inside a range after rejecting the round number 0.01
We have been stuck inside the accumulation between 0.01 and 0.018
🏹 For the bulls to take over, we need a Daily Candle Close above 0.018
Meanwhile, since IDEA is inside a range, we will be looking for short-term buy setups as we approach the lower bound of the range 0.01
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Niocorps Developments - the Big One CountThis Eliott Wave Count of Niocoorp Develoopments reflects a bullish longterm Supercycle upward impuls pattern of the marcet.
Wave 3 upward impuls pattern should lead the PPS of the shares above 106 Dollar propably higher, after the a-b-c running correction of the past months. If the abc correction should last a little bit longer the 0.84 Dollar are an exiting entry point. Bu this scenario of a wave c extension within the running correction is not necessary. PPS can explode anytime within the start of the Wave 3 upward impuls.
Note: This is no advice to buy or to sell a stock. Stock can rise or fall. Each investor is acting on his own risk.
Big picture analysis on BITCOIN! (Over 100k)What is up my Tradingview family! as you know I have been posting bearish charts on Bitcoin in the short term but today I would like to share with you what is happening in the BIG PICTURE.
When I saw a short term correction coming I took profits and reduced risk HOWEVER I never EVER sell 100% of my position on Bitcoin because this is simply stupid considering the big picture trend.. Its better to sell 20% - 30%.
BTC
ETH
I am now in a very good place with a good chunk in the markets and USDT that I have been steadily deploying (AVG DOWN) back into the dip. This is compounding my portfolio!
In the short term a correction could be over OR it could still see one more sharp leg down. (this is why your AVG back into the market) when you sell into FOMO its very nice because the worst case scenario you buy back near or below the price you sold - the best case scenario you buy everything at MASSIVE DISCOUNTS.
In the big picture I expect Bitcoin to reach $90,000 - $100,000 then proceed to FOMO to $230,000 and potentially $250,000 per coin.
This cycle is a repeat of the 2013 2014 cycle (in fractal nature) but can easily FOMO even higher than that one did.
Stay profitable!
Bull Principle.I don't like to speculate too much, thus I am very cautious when mentioning
anything further than a few days from now on into the future.
This idea was born as an answer to the question pitched
by fellow trader - nickrandy1 . Respect!
Simply two charts. The #1 major reason why we are going sky up
is mapped above - the FINISHED correction model xyzwxyzwxyz
(or wyxzwyxzwyx, if it is more comfortable, doesn't matter).
Divergences lie, channels lie, SMAs lie, voodoo-doll-forecasting lies as well.
But this market looooves following the same proportions again and again.
And the same correction models are observed over and over.
The chart is screaming in our faces with accumulated groups of
1-2-1-2-1-2 waves(initial waves group, expecting multiple impulses on
multiple timeframes). We are slowly but STEADILY moving up
towards the Papa Ponzi's Pump(PPP) that may inflate btc hundreds percent!
9k? silly target, 100%!
10.5k? reasonable.
11.5k? good for the third target.
14k? smart to save some btc, it may pump further...
24k and even further.... (I am very skeptical on this. 11.5k sell -
the way to do it)
Yeah, btc may die in 5-20 years, but people live in the day.
Until that moment this beautiful inflation bubble
is easily pumped more and more and more. And no one is able
to stop it!
A perfect opportunity...
If it goes as planned, this is just the end of the very first
accumulation phase, out of the three expected. (1-2- , 3-4- and 5-)
Consider the m30 chart:
We can treat the waves (since 3 Jan) on 30m chart
within the boundaries of the Wave Theory as some fully formed 1-2-1-2- legs
or a 1-2-3- part of the unfinished 12345 impulse...
and the 3- third wave is just getting started in any case!
The 3rd wave (starts in a few days already?) should be
the longest one ;) out of all three expected to form
in the case of bullish scenario playing out.
The previous 4k impulse:
Now look at the current chart:
Anyway it is reasonable to assume,
that 8700 9k, 9.5k, 10.5k, 11.5k and even 14k - all are
good targets for the next few weeks.
New bottom is definitely less probable
than some new highs right now.
We are in the bullish territory, 100% confirmed.
Notice the death confirmation level - 6767 .
Anything below promises a 100% death for the Rally
and starts a new bearish trend for the following weeks.
So if we're trading above 6767 - there's
still a chance for the Rally. This number is defined
with respect for the very base principle of the Wave Theory -
wave #2 never retraces 100% or more of the wave #1 height.
The next few days may get very tense,
volume-wise =). Be safe, stay bull.
P.S. Fellow trader, fire that " like " button if agree ;)
British Pound on parity with the USD in long term? British Pound and the USD on parity? It could well be happening in the longterm as a big picture 3 wave structure to the downside stays in tact. The key levelis highlighted in blue. Should we break under this support we will have further confirmation that this setup can well play us. It will defenitly interesting to watch this pair over the next couple of session as Brexit uncertainty has increased recently.
EURGBP - Sleepin' with the FishesEURGBP Emerging Price Pattern.
EURGBP price is consolidating in this tight and tightening parabolic support/resistance line formation. Price has been very consistent bouncing between the flanks of the sterling salmon.
This pattern, as you can imagine, is not a common pattern and it is not clear whether it will be yanked up with the fisherman or flounder down to Boris Bay. I suspect that it will push lower and ride the waves.
If you have any inputs or believe I'm missing something, drop me a line!
GBPJPY: To change your perspective, change your perspective.I'm saying, that GBPJPY is in trouble - having pumped north like nobody's business. The technical picture on the weekly is troubled. That means there is opportunity for all traders (long or short) on lower time frames. I'll say no more here. Have a look. And - if you think differently, give to the community your reasoned assessment. It is in giving that we receive. Let's not do the FB thing where you just 'feel' it's gonna go north or south. Thank you.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Technical Picture Deteriorating FurtherBitcoin Sunday Update
Nothing has happened over the last 24 hours of trading to
improve the technical picture - after breaking the bear flag
formation all remaining longs closed out and those day traders
who then sold did well from the highs of the new day at the
9900-9917 range. Since then it's carried on drifting lower, still
falling away out lack of interest rather than outright rejection
at this point. The pattern is still overall bearish. The parallels
guiding the descent have shifted to a less acute angle but the
downtrend is still clearly in play with Bitcoin making a little
continuation pattern before it falls away again, sliding lower
towards the parallels below it and making small bounces off
the blue support lines as it descends towards 9061, then 8805
and then 8551.
Over the last 24 hours Bitcoin has built up and reinforced
heavy overhead resistance at 9900-9917 - whilst below here it
remains in a weak technical position - look to sell rallies with
stops above 9710 for now.
Coinbase Update Saturday 11:07gmt/06:07est*
Ripped through the lower parallel of the flag on Coinbase -
now trapped in smaller parallels and finding scant support off
the lower line - now an attempt for 9900-9917 line which was
the last line of neartterm support here on Coinbase and 'limit-
down' those with long memories back to last night may
remember.
This is more dying of dis-interest than outright rejection - but
it's not remotely tempting to buy right now. Likely to slide
away and the bears that are out and sniffing blood won't be
backing away until the upper parallel is broken and then held
on the retest too. Too many failed breaks now to trust them,
no? Just be damn careful all day if trading this mofo this
weekend. In the absence of buyers it 's got to slide lower
down the parallels. But the markets goes on regardless and
day traders are buying off the lower parallel and likely looking
to sell again off the upper one when touched later at 9900.
12:00 gmt/07.00est Saturday
...moving in a continuation pattern, effectively a large a
bearish flag, shouldn't turn bearish again until the lowest
rising parallel is broken on downside. At that point - whenever
it arrives - the rally is done. Close out longs if it
happens sooner rather than later. We do not want to be
trapped inside the bait-ball when the next pod of whales
starts circling. We have to exit before they arrive.
Is this paranoia ? Maybe. But just cos we're a little paranoid
doesn't mean that there isn't someone following us. There is a
time to be paranoid and a time to be
gung-ho. Right now, for safety's sake, it's better to be the
former. We can get over paranoia. Losing 20% is harder to
bear. So this weekend we have to
tread carefully - more carefully than usual. Better safe than
sorry.
* For fastest updates in real-time please see top left of main
Tv page
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Big Picture Clean Chart for weekend aheadBitcoin: BTCUSD Update into the Weekend:Scenarios
The battle continues and finally the bears have made an impression on the upper parallel, pushing price down to 7800,
where pin bars from earlier show some demand (not shown on chart, but significant to the very near term now). There is no
winner yet, though. It can move sideways from here, meeting demand off the parallel and more still at 7717 freezer lid
level and down to 7660 at an absolute pinch, building a new rectangular range between 7717 and 7990-8000. It can move
sideways further, out of the pull of the parallels, large and small, but still be Ok so long as 7717-7660 holds - but it would
be a sign of strength if it could avoid all that, use the large parallel as support and then power higher, and back through
the neck line again - if and when it gathers enough buying power to manage that, this next time could well prove
successful in breaking the last bears that still stand strong at 7990-8000. So far, from their viewpoint, looking down the
mountain from 8000 with stops just above, there's nothing to scare them...yet. OK, that big bear raid first thing in London
didn't work out so well for them this time, but their stops still haven't pinged yet. When that happens and 8000 is broken by
20 points it becomes another breakout/momentum play. It will maybe need China to open to create enough
volume...they like breakouts - but we need to see one now to add to long positions from here...should it come (but think it
will at some point this weekend even if they try to sell it off in China first thing Saturday) it could well be explosive in
nature. Doesn't have to be but could well be. And once 8000 is actually broken the upside is, by nature of the beast,
incalculable. Anyone who says they have a value for Bitcoin is not to be trusted any more than asking your dog how much it's
worth. No one has ANY clue. It could be 15000, it could be 30000, it could be 5000 and it could be 5 one day. No one
knows. You KNOW that though. And it's enough to make money - big money - either way. You don't even have to
believe in Bitcoin per se, just believe what the chart is telling you, and no one else.
And so to the poential for downside this weekend coming: the big parallel remains the first line of support, and then
7717-7660 (stops for remaining longs from 7570 tight under 7660). So if 7717 fails and then 7060 also then fails we have a
near term problem emerging and Bitcoin should fall away to 7531 again and the rectangular range suddenly expands from
8000 at top to 7531 at bottomwith 7717 as the dividing line between the three...fantastic for day traders, trading
between these lines. This could take a large part of Saturday to play out if we see it..again great for day traders, a nice
wide range to play within, potentially developing this weekend as a consequence of this type of price action, if 7717
gives way, as above. But, the bull case is strong whilst above 7717 and still just fine at 7531. But if this fails at any point
this weekend, the bears are getting control again. It's a buy on any retest of 7531 with stop just under 7500 for rally to
7719. Then close if a day trader and only go long again from 7730 to 7980 with a stop under 7700, trading between the
three blue lines.
Long Story short:
Turn aggressively bullish again on a break above 8000 by 20 points, that can be sustained (very careful here as it could
explode upwards, and potentially downwards too, so stops need using and the risk of being hit quite high so they need to
be some way away from 8000 if longs are triggered, at least 100) This is still tough work but the bulls won't quit... That
parallel above, just holding it back now...if it breaks above it soon, then the break out could well follow soon after. Good
for swing traders. Otherwise we'll be heading for a Saturday made for day-traders, as above.
And turn aggressively bearish again only onbreak below 7531 looking to short rallies to 695
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Bigger Picture Clean ChartBitcoin: BTCUSD Bigger Picture and Clean Chart
We are long from 3 buy points today:
!st was the break and hold above key resistance at 6950
(after closing out a 230 point gain as this level was hit and then
losing 50 points on the ensuing short from the same level)
2nd on first touch of the lower parallel at 7090 (stop 50 points lower)
3rd on the break above the continuation pattern highlighted earlier today at 7170.
Need to put a stop under some fairly hard-won gains and also put a limit level on
for exit, if we see it, before the stops get hit.
The stop on all positions can placed just under 7200. Bitcoin
has been good to day traders again, pinging off support and
resistance lines, though the lows were 13 points higher at
7090 than we could have done with as the perfect entry point
if 6950 break had been missed earlier.
That spike off the 7346 resistance line is the first for a while
and so it could be that when far Eastern markets open it could
get sold off...if so, look to buy back at 7134 and below down
to 7090 with stops under 7060.
On the upside, providing we don't get stopped out first,
we should look to exit at 7540, or just under.
AUDNZD in tough spot - important levels to watchThe pair was supported in 1.03200 area, where we can find a strong demand zone. Even though upside move is expected since the AUDNZD 0.15% is oversold, we can see a major support line becoming resistance all the way back from December 2005 lows. On the other side, many support lines and fibos are covering our last bounce area, so if the pair should continue and break the resistance and minor supply zone, we will see the pair continue to advance to 1.05500 levels. The pair can test 1.03000 prior upside movement.
- The importance of trend line or fibo line, is seen by it's thickness.
- The pair was analyzed on Monthly and Weekly first, to see the bigger picture
GBPUSD DOWNSIDE READYANOTHER POST TO SUPPORT MY PREVIOUS BIAS ON GBPUSD AND THIS BREXIT AND HOW ITS PAINTING THE PICTURE BEFOREHAND
GBPUSD LOOKING SET TO MAKE LOWER LOWS AND ULTIMATELY SHOOT ENGLAND IN TO A RECESSION
A-B-C-D STRUCTURE
PRICE HOLDING FIRM BELOW 1.4710 WITH WEAKNESS AND MACD DIVERGENCE
1.35000 WILL BE THE FIRST TARGET