Strong EUR? - A EUR/USD AnalysisEUR/USD has displayed bullish characteristics over the last couple of weeks.
- We have reach a high in the market @ 1.095.
- This high was made after a bullish A,B,C,D pattern aka (Trend).
- In bullish markets, prices tend to find support at the previous high, the previous high in this market (To me) is @ 1.085.
- We currently have made a bullish pin bar rejection candle on 3/19/2024.
- Currently we have untapped orders at 1.098, this is where I believe prices want to go in the next month.
- Breaking the 1.098 level, could lead to a bigger move up toward 1.11.
** as always, trade smart, trade responsible, and manage the risk as much as the reward **
Pin Bar
EUR/USD Builds Bullish Momentum with Strong Support and Pin BarAfter bottoming at 1.0760 exactly one week ago, FX:EURUSD has started to consolidate, forming what appears to be a base.
Since then, dips below 1.08 have been consistently bought up, culminating in a strong bullish Pin Bar candle yesterday.
To further support this bullish outlook, this base is forming at a key confluence of support levels, reinforcing the potential for an upward move.
With this in mind, I am looking to buy this pair, ideally on a dip, to ensure a positive risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2.
My target for a reversal is set at 1.0950, with respect to 1.09 resistance (this could serve as short term trader's target)
Strong buy on BitcoinThe price has seen the main break even and made a beautiful pin bar. It works as a strong buy signal. The stop loss is behind the shadow. The last target is the all-time high. As Bitcoin moves, every other coin moves in the same direction, too, so you can have long positions on other assets according to your personal strategy and entry point.
Bullish Divergence + Pinbar in TLTI'll start with the weekly RSI bullish divergence off the 2022 and 2023 yearly lows. In addition to that, there is also a nice bullish pinbar on the 4M chart. This also hints to a possible bottom/bullish reversal. Price is now pushing against the trendline resistance (from Mar 23' to Jul 24'). Once price is able to break and hold this area it could really start moving. There is some overhead resistance that the market will need to overcome and I expect plenty of volatility, so safest play may be to have a stop just below the 23' lows and then stay hands off and give it room to run.
GOLD - Pin bar bullishA bullish pin bar has formed on the gold chart, suggesting a potential rise in gold prices. If the price breaks above the 2325 resistance level, this would confirm the bullish trend. It is advisable to set a stop-loss in the 2310-2305 range to manage risk in case of a breakout.
Liquidity Hunt PatternLiquidity Hunt Pattern
Uncover Hidden Opportunities in the Market
Introduction:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool that helps traders identify potential turning points in the market. By understanding how this pattern forms and its implications, traders can gain an edge in uncovering hidden opportunities and making informed trading decisions.
What is the Liquidity Hunt Pattern?
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is characterized by a series of price movements that create a distinct "W" or "M" shape on the chart. This pattern forms when large institutional players, known as "liquidity providers" enter the market to buy or sell large quantities of assets. Their actions create temporary imbalances in supply and demand, leading to price swings that can be exploited by astute traders.
Identifying the Pattern:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern consists of three key elements:
The "W" or "M" shape: This is the most recognizable feature of the pattern and is formed by a series of price swings that create the distinctive letter shape.
Volume spikes: The pattern is often accompanied by significant volume spikes, indicating the presence of large institutional activity.
Breakout or breakdown: The pattern typically resolves with a breakout or breakdown, signaling a potential change in the market direction.
Trading the Liquidity Hunt Pattern:
Traders can use the Liquidity Hunt Pattern to identify potential entry and exit points for their trades. By understanding the dynamics of the pattern, traders can:
Anticipate potential turning points: The pattern can signal potential reversals or continuations in the market trend.
Identify high-probability trading setups: The pattern can be used to identify areas where the risk-reward ratio is favorable.
Manage risk effectively: The pattern can help traders set stop-loss and take-profit levels to manage their risk exposure.
Conclusion:
The Liquidity Hunt Pattern is a valuable tool for traders of all levels. By understanding its formation and implications, traders can gain an edge in the market and uncover hidden opportunities for profitable trades.
GBPUSD, Short, AB=CD Gartley222, Extended pin bar at key levelWe might play out this as a Gartley222. Not entering at the 78% retracement level,
but we have a great pin bar on the 2Hour chart at a very Key level. Close below the previous major low and a 1 to 1 AB-CD move.
Volume profile- the pin bar occurred on raising volume which for me indicates stops taken, but also it's what Wyckoff will call nonvalidation, huge volume, but the bar closed at its lowest. Nonvalidation is a good edge at turning points.
The red box is the 61% retracement of the AD leg of the Gartley. Some people use this as a target. I manage the trade differently but wanted to illustrate that even this target provides a good Rirk/Reward rate.
P.S. For the harmonic pattern junkies: the red dotted line might be interpreted in the 1-hour chart as a 3 drives pattern, entering at the level was going to be great. I was personally late for it.
NFLX Short: Gap Fill and High RSIHey All,
I wanted to get your feedback on this analysis.
I am solely basing my opinion based on the RSI indicator, MACD and candlesticks on the daily chart.
Although earnings help NASDAQ:NFLX to go up slightly. It had to restest a strong resistance at 562.46. Once it reached the resistance the bears took control which resulted in a pretty strong bearish pinbar, usually signaling a reverse in trend. Along with the pin bar the RSI is way oversold and the MACD is looking like it is being set up for a bearish divergence, where the price action is trending up, but the MACD is trending down. In addition, there was also a gap up during earnings and that gap will need to be filled.
This signals to me that the there will be a short, even if just to fill the gap up.
What do you guys think?
PEPECOMMUNITYUSDT: 4 Hour Bullish Pinbar with Bullish DivergenceThere is a 4 Hour Bullish Pinbar with MACD Bullish Divergence at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat at the macro low.
Sell XAUUSD at current price (2040)XAUUSD (H4) Weak RSI divergence appears combined with a bearish Pinbar candlestick reversal.
We can execute a Sell order at the current price (2040) With trading plan:
Stop loss at 2048
TP 1 at 2030
TP 2 at 2020 : Fibonacci Retracement (0.382)
TP3 at 2001 : Fibonacci Retracement (0.618)
TP4 at 1990 : Fibonacci Retracement (0.786)
Weak divergence of RSI
Note: Capital management 2%
EURCAD → A set of bearish patterns foreshadowing the decline FOREXCOM:EURCAD is forming a standard bearish setup on the background of the forming downtrend, as the Canadian is getting stronger than the Euro and thus changing the market direction.
On D1 we can see that in general the currency pair is in a global range and it is impossible to identify any key trend, so it is acceptable to trade both buying and selling within the range. But since we have a set of sell signals forming, we should expect further price decline.
The level of 1.46400 (D1) plays an important role. Consolidation is formed, then the level is broken, after which a pin-bar is formed on the background of the retest, which confirms the interests of the market.
On H1, the price breaks the consolidation support, makes a false break of 1.464 as part of the correction and even on H1 a bearish candlestick pattern is formed with subsequent consolidation of the price below the level, which is an additional confirmation.
Support levels: 1.458, 1.456, 1.4478, 1.4350
Resistance levels: 1.464, 1.4747
I expect a continuation of the decline, a retest of 1.464 is possible, but in general the setup hints at the continuation of the downtrend.
Regards R. Linda!
GOLD → Strong dollar influences further decline in gold OANDA:XAUUSD , following my expectation, on the background of Friday's NFP falls and reaches the target. The price is testing the level of 2000, but in my opinion, this target will not end this week.
From December 11 to December 15 we are expecting a rather active week, fundamentally. On Friday we got a rather strong NPF for the dollar, which made gold fall from the zone I mentioned. The fundamental potential is not over, it will continue to influence the pricing in the medium term. It is also worth paying attention to the dollar. On the weekly timeframe we see the formation of a pinbar and a bullish candlestick, which overlaps the last two, which is a strong enough sign of further strengthening. Accordingly, gold and the forex market may react accordingly.
Gold is currently testing the support area of the bearish channel. The important zone for us is 2007 - 2009. It is possible to form a retest, an impulse to 2010-2015 , or a false breakdown. Further consolidation of the price below this level will form a bearish potential, which will continue to pressure the price. The market is directed to the mentioned zones of interest and liquidity ( 1990, 1984, 1965, 1955 ) in the medium term.
Fundamentally, the market has stopped paying attention to the nuances in the Middle East or Eastern Europe. Now everyone is waiting for some new information from Powell related to monetary policy, namely interest rates. But, more data on Initial Jobless Claims and NFP may make the Fed chief hesitant.
Also, on the weekly timeframe, I found the " Cup with handle " pattern forming interesting. It is clear that within such a period it is impossible to determine the exact place of the breakout or the point of safe entry into the market, but the tendency to the fact that the extreme phase of the expected pattern is forming is already pleasing. Most likely, in the medium and long term, the price will continue to test the resistance 2070-2100 for a breakout and the formation of a new range, but not in the near future.
OANDA:XAUUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:MGC1! CAPITALCOM:US500 TVC:DXY
Regards R. Linda!
EURUSD → Correction before the news. What could happen?FX:EURUSD is forming a false breakout. This may be the reason for the formation of correction in the short term. The market is also expecting news today, which is worth paying attention to.
We are interested in CDGO (MoM) today and the one that may affect the price in the short to medium term is Initial Jobless Claims. For the latter, analysts are expecting an improvement in the indications from 231K to 225K. If the actual data released at 13:30 GMT is higher than expected, the correction may end and the pair will start to strengthen. If the data will be lower than expected, the correction is likely to be a little bit delayed
From the technical analysis point of view, an actual false breakdown could be the reason for the price decline to 1.0875 or to 0.382 or 0.5 fibo. But since we have a fairly strong fundamental basis for the medium term, the currency pair has the following areas as targets: 1.1033, 1.115, 1.127
Support levels: 1.0875, 0.382 fibo, 0.05 fibo
Resistance levels: 1.0918
The correction may continue until the publication of news that may determine the short-medium term outlook. I expect growth after the test of local support areas.
Regards R. Linda!
USOIL - BEARISH MOVE 📉
As We Talked in The Previous Analysis:
On Tuesday 7 November, The USOIL Price Broke The Support Level (79.72 - 77.64).
This Support Level Becomes a New Resistance Level.
Currently,
The Price pull back to important Resistance Line,
And Formed a Bearish Pin Bar 📉
-----------
TARGET: 75.60🎯
DXCM - bottom fishing (swing trade)DXCM had been essentially a range bound stock in the past 3 years, forming what is potentially a long term head & shoulders formation (bearish if break down). However, it looks like the odds of breaking down has diminished with a bullish monthly pin bar now forming after finding support at its 88.6% fib retracement (imperfect double bottom).
The stock is still below its 200 day MA but this MA is less relevant for a stock that is just ranging sideways for the past few years. It can still be a good candidate for swing trade due to its wide range.
The daily chart is starting to exhibit reversal patterns with higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). The recent earnings gap up on huge volume was a good catalyst. And the subsequent pullback to almost close the gap (and today's "bullish harami" to signify potential rebound) provided an opportunity to long at lower risk.
Ready to test a small long position with initial stop loss just under $83.50 (allowing for gap fill that might still stand a small chance of happening IMO)
Disclaimer:
This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important!
Take care and Good Luck!
Daily pinbar candle. Fundamental still bullish?!Hi guys. Last week was again a week full off strong bullish momentum. Even the big resistance levels couldn't stop the massive bullrun. The market is overal more moving on fundamentals then technicals. The war going on is making the precious metal in big demand.
I adviced traders to be carefull with selling the market. Intraday/swingtraders having a hard time shorting the market atm.
If we look at the friday daily closing. We can see a big pinbar. 1983-1985 is big resistance level. It broke in lower timeframe(up to 1997)but created a fakeout in higher timeframe. We tried buying gold after the break and retest. But H4 did not mange to close above the resistance zone. THe pinbar candle indicates a posible stop to the bullrun. But keep in mind the market is mostly running on fundamentals. So in my opinion gold will fall from the resistance level towards posible 1972, 1953 or as low as 1930 before the bull run starts again.
Gold is also moving between a channel. So it is posible for gold to follow the channel upwards.
Resistance: 1985, 2009, 2025, 2065
Support: 1972, 1953,1930
Bank of Japan's Dovish Line Pushes Yen DownSTRATEGY LONG TARGET 175USD YEN
The market thinks the Bank of Japan’s new governor is negative for the yen and a plus for stocks, at least based on his first policy board meeting.
In fact, the headline NFP print showed that the US economy added 253K new jobs in April against 179K anticipated, offsetting the downwardly revised reading of 165K. Adding to this, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.4% during the reported month from 3.5% in March, which assists the US Dollar (USD) to regain strong positive traction and provides a goodish lift to the USD/JPY pair.
Apart from this, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a goodish recovery in the equity markets - undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and further contributes to the bid tone surrounding the USD/JPY pair. That said, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) less hawkish stance holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and keeps a lid on any further gains, at least for now.
Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair, for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak and stalled this week's sharp retracement slide from the 137.75-137.80 region, or a two-month high. Spot prices, however, remain on track to register losses for the first time in the previous four weeks. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before placing fresh bullish bets around the major.
After Gov. Kazuo Ueda presided over his first meeting, the bank emphasized that it would continue monetary easing to support growth in wages and prices. That was enough to persuade market players that an interest-rate increase isn’t in the cards soon.
Late Friday in Tokyo, the yen was trading at around 136 to the dollar, compared with around 134 to the dollar before the central bank’s midday decision.
The USD/JPY pair catches aggressive bids during the early North American session and jumps to the 135.00 psychological mark in reaction to the stellar US monthly employment details.
USD BULLISH
When the dust settles, the Fed is set to continue raising rates
US to have permanently higher rates than elsewhere
Re-acceleration of inflation and its win over the Fed will continue to catch the market by surprise
The Dollar is higher for longer, alongside the Fed’s narrative
Stagflation to take USD even higher
Hot CPI means the Fed pivot is well beyond the horizon
Ugly inflation promises further flight to safety
US at war means a stronger dollar
Outlook for Fed monetary policy now more hawkish
Powell projects pain, higher rates for longer set to keep the dollar bid
There is no alternative to the US dollar
No recession for America's labor market, more dollar gains eyed
Fed Chair Powell prioritizes fighting inflation, and ready to see negative growth
💱 NZDUSD - Head and shoulders. Bear potential NZDUSD is forming a false breakout and reversal pattern. There is an opportunity for a decline to 0.59000
TA on high timeframe:
1) False breakout of global range resistance
2) The market considers liquidity in the area of 0.59600 as a target
TA on low timeframe:
1) A false breakdown in the "head and shoulders" format is formed
2) Price starts realization of the pattern after breaking its base
3) I am waiting for a fall to 0.5985 and 0.59600.
Key support📉: 0.5985
Key resistance📈: 0.60000
🥇GOLD - The market may strengthen the price GOLD has been rising since the opening. The reason is the conflict in the Middle East and the fundamental factors of last week.
Consolidation is forming and most likely the price may test the support before further growth.
TA on the timeframe:
1) The reason for the rise today is the geopolitical factor. And as we know, in all crisis situations there is a growing interest in gold.
2) False breakout of strong 0.5 fibo level. FB may be followed by strong growth
TA on the low timeframe:
1) Price is consolidating in a narrow range. Most likely a strong impulse may be followed by a retest of 0.5 fibo support
2) At the moment people still do not know what to do and are preparing to buy gold, but before further growth the market can fool the player and take out stoplosses, which are below 1846.
3) waiting for a rise to 1878
Key support📉: 1846, 1840
Key resistance📈: 1853
SPX & NQ - optimism is backWe had a rather treacherous 2.5 months of corrections since both SPX and NQ hit their peaks in July, resulting in a 50% and nearly 38% fib retracements respectively of both indices' major AB upswing in (Mar - Jul).
SPX breached its H&S neckline briefly before finding support near major support zone (comprising 200day MA, Horizontal support, VWAP, 50% fib retracement) around 4200. Nasdaq fared slightly better and did not breach its H&S support, but teetered on the brink for days before the bulls finally won as it staged a sharp rebound last Friday.
Market breath is still mixed with Nasdaq100 leading the pack with 61% of the stocks above their 200day MA (ticker: NDTH), followed by S&P500 with only 40% of the stocks above their 200day MA (ticker: S5TH) and finally, Russell200 is weak with only 31% of its stocks above their 200day MA (ticker: R2TH).
With such mixed market breaths, stock picking skills is paramount.
While there are still a lot of strong/resilient counters out there (GOOG, META, AFL, ANET, APP, BAH, CLS, CRWD, LLY, VRT, ZS etc), there are also a lot of very weak counters that are now sweeping their (major or range) bottoms (CL, DIS, DOCU, DG, EL, RH etc). Plus many in between trying to breakup from their bases but with mixed results.
As of now, the last quarter could more bullish than not, and , and knowing when to exit or sit tight. Market participation is still rather weak at the moment and volatility appears to be the new game for this high inflation era. Hence it could still be challenging to find the right stocks at the right time (entry and exit).
Momentum/swing traders would prefer the strong stocks that continue to break higher after each retracement. The longer term investors might be more interested to do some bottom fishing (however, may risk picking a stock could remain at the bottom for a long time due to serious near term fundamental damage). For myself (swing trader), I would prefer to at least choose a stock that has broken up from a base, or to swing in and out of a strong stock.
The extreme volatility means I could be swing in and out more often than I would have prefered. And money management rules (stop loss etc) must be adhered to (easier said than done!)
Disclaimer:
This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important!
Take care and Good Luck!