Get started

Pitchforks

Pitchforks Follow Normal DistributionPitchforks are a very popular TA tool and easy to use. However the fundamentals are often glossed over. For example, many beginners and vets don't know that it is based on Normal Distribution which has 3 Sigma Limits . This is commonly referred to as a "Bell Curve" . It's a natural rule of thumb used in Statistics and Probability Theory, for all manner of sciences. The 3 Sigma Limits are 3 Standard Deviations from the median line, which is located in the center of the mean distribution of data. For us, this data is price action. The 3 Standard Deviation on a fork are: 1st STD DEV from -0.5 to +0.5 2nd STD DEV from -1.0 to -0.5 & +0.5 to +1.0 3rd STD DEV from -1.5 to -1.0 & +1.0 to +1.5 The 3 Sigma Limits Rule is also known as the 68-95-99.7 Rule. What this means is, while in a trend, natural price action will: 1) Remain within the 1st STD DEV 68% of the time. 2) Remain within the 1st & 2nd STD DEVs 95% of the time. 3) Remain within all 3 STD DEVs 99.7% of the time. What about the remaining .3%? Usually breaking out of the 3rd standard indicates the trend is done, however .3% of the price action can fall outside of the 3 STD DEVs and still continue the trend! This is a rule of thumb for natural law, but stock market price action can be manipulated! If the price action doesn't fit the Normal Distribution model, then it is likely unnatural. Also, since our data never stops coming, the mean can move over time, while staying in the same general trend; making the previous median lines invalid. If a unnatural amount of your price action is falling outside of the 1st STD DEV, then your original median line is likely invalid. A new pivot should show itself to correct the median. That could be what's happening here on the chart, if the bear trend continues back into the fork, with so much price action outside of the 3 STD DEVs. You can draw a new pitchfork on the pivot from June to August which would include more price action. I will include that below.
CME_MINI:ESU2022
by Nicklaus68
31
BTC/USD - is BTC still in a downtrend?Let’s have a look at the BTC/USD 1 week chart and see what this chart and indicators are telling us. BTC is still in a massive Falling Wedge Pattern. BTC is also still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave pattern. Note that the 50MA is still traveling DOWNWARDS towards the 200MA so we still might see a Death Cross on this 1 week timeframe. At the moment of typing this, BTC has crossed back under its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) on this 1 week timeframe. A successful close below the LSMA and successful re-test as resistance will indicate that the direction of travel will most likely continue downwards. BTC is still way under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this 1 week timeframe. Looking at the Descending Pitchfork Pattern, we can see the Support and Resistance levels that BTC has been hitting on this indicator. Here is a closer look at this 1 week chart: BTC is still in the Bearish Zone of all 3 of its major Ichimoku Clouds. Looking at BTC’s most important Ichimoku Cloud: The Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that mid-point the short-term momentum is downwards at the moment. The Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indicating that the mid-point of the mid-term momentum is sideways at the moment. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indicating that momentum, at the moment is starting to slope downwards. Using the Negative V Calculation from the 1 Month Chart, and using the Ichimoku Timespan Numbers of 65-Bars and 76-Bars starting from the ATH at $68,789.63 back in Nov 2021, we have 2 potential timeframes for the price target $9,916. V Calculation Negative (from 1 month chart) V = B - (C-B) = D C $25,160 - B $17,538 = $7,622 B $17,538 - (C-B) $7,1622 = $9,916 D1 = $9,916 The week of 6th Feb 2023 D2 = $9,916 The week 24th April 2023 Note that this is NOT a bottom for BTC but is a PRICE TARGET using the Ichimoku V Calculation (Negative). Looking at the Up/Down Volume, we can see that the Volume Traded since around June 2021 has been nothing when compared to what has been previously traded in the past. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that the RSI is pointing downwards and still has plenty of room to move downwards before becoming Oversold on this 1 week timeframe. Note that the RSI is getting very close to crossing under is 9 Period EMA. From my opinion, before anyone can start talking or preaching about bottoms, reversals and bull-runs, we need to talk about fundamentals and what is happening to the world economy. We also now know that the Crypto world isn’t yet a hedge against inflation and we also need to accept the fact that the world is already in a recession and possibly heading into a depression in 2023. From my opinion BTC is still in a mid to longterm downtrend. That is NOT going to change unless BTC crosses back ABOVE and more importantly CLOSES ABOVE its 200MA on the 1 Day Chart for Mid-Term and 1 Week Chart for Long-Term. If/when this happens, be on the lookout for any successful re-test as support on these timeframes. Once this world wide recession fully bottoms out be it in 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, 5 years or 10 years and when the powers that be have had their fill of transferring wealth from the Middle Class and the Poor to the elites, then true opportunities WILL ARISE for those who are ready. Again this is all my opinion so I hope this post is helpful.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens
10
SPY to Lower MLHAMEX:SPY Mod Schiff... Apply Fork Law... Rinse + Repeat. SPY will test the lower parallel today. FORK LAW Price will reach the latest Median Line. Price will reverse upon meeting the Median Line or gap through it. (Zoom through 24 hr markets) When price crosses through a Median Line, it will pull back to retest it. If prices reverse before reaching the latest Median Line, it will move away from the Median Line stronger and faster than the preceding move towards it. Price will reverse at any Median Line or extension of a prior Median Line. Fat_Fat
AMEX:SPYShort
by Cousin_Fat_Fat
7
PTRA - Another Capitulation Wave DownPTRA All the action is in EV today. PTRA down 10% already today in tandem with TSLA collapse. This looked somewhat promising as it probed out of the pitchfork although the clue was that no other EVs were moving with it. But after the 3 wave completion there were 2 shorting opportunities as it fell back into the pitchfork. One was positional, the other with momentum. And imo the momentum trade was the much safe option with the SRP (Shakeout Reversal Pattern) probing back into the dotted warning line entering near the candle close. Heading for a massive capitulation. I didn't trade this one but just to show the working. Can't think of a worse market for hodlers 😸. Not advice.
NASDAQ:PTRAShort
by dRends35
XAU/USD Long - 15/30m - NY Open - Dec 20 20222 PFs in this case showed confluence that price might be making another rally up. Downward PF shows that ceilings are being broken and retested which suggests Gold is becoming bullish. Looking at the upwards PF , we can see that floors are being respected included parallels. The upwards PF had parallels (dotted lines) that were also respected in confluence with the downward PF which gave great confidence to take the trade and let it run to TP without partials. For this trade, we waited until 4h closed as a rejected after the last 4h pushed and closed above a ceiling. With stops below the previous 30m (as this will invalidate the buy), we took a buy and price never looked back. It went on breaking the basing 4h candle which caused an instant jump in price as many traders expected it to continue with this bullish momentum (fairly quick 1:2 trade). No partials taken throughout the trade and a 10% runner was left to take advantage of any more jumps in price, especially since the daily and weekly suggest that price can continue bullish breaking out of the current horizontal channel. Total TP set for 1835 in accordance with the bullish PF next major ceiling with SL at BE.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MisterPitchfork