XAU/USD Short - 5/15m - Post NY Open - Nov 17 2022From the 2 long term 4H PFs (one bullish, one bearish), we see that price has broken 2 floors over the London session and retested both of them (first green circle) which is an indication that the market bias is bearish. The next floor is not for some time so we were looking for a retracement to enter short.
The short term purple PF provides us with more details on potential short entries on lower timeframes since the path is not clearly defined with the long term PFs alone. The purple PF shows a clear channel between the two 0.5 parallels. Price did a fake out on the major floor and pushed up without a retest so the idea was to wait for price to hit a significant ceiling before dropping again to retest the floor.
Trade was a 1:2, taking 50% around 1:1 (SL to BE). Good execution, entered on a retest after a fake out on the significant short term PF ceiling. Price fell right back down after testing that parallel where we set our TP. SL was above the previous high.
Pitchforks
BITCOIN AT THE BOTTOM OF PITCHFORK WITH WEEKLY DIVERGENCEA lot of negative sentiment on the market right now, and with everyone expecting BTC to drop to 12.000-10.000 area, there is a high probability that BTC creates even temporary bottom. Fear index currently at 23 (extreme fear).
Also BTC is near the cost of production, and historically BTC always bottomed above the value of production.
As you can see BTC price respected this pitchfork throughout the whole bull run. That doesn't mean it would be saved by 2X extension. It could still pierce trough the support, create the capitulation bottom, and then slowly bottom out here.
Nice area to dollar cost average, and to start buying.
XAU/USD Short - 5/15m - NY Open - Nov 16 2022long term PF on 4H shows us the slope is still valid as price keeps respecting the ceiling and floor. Once price hit the ceiling, it started making its way down to the most recent floor (bottom of red parallel channel). We waited for the first dotted parallel to be broken as that one is clearly being respected (same move down as Nov 15 Asian session).
1:1 was the aim but execution was poor. Retail sales data came out positive for USD at 8:30am and we know that 9:30am will have another reaction to this high impact news. Hence at 9:30, price pushed up to our dotted parallel then fell down to our most recent floor which is our TP. Trade was a sell stop after the break of the 5m candle (9:35am)
Trade taken on 5m due to high volatility but Tradingview does not allow for 5m chart publishing.
PTRA - Pitchfork Breakout! 😲These EV's have been getting smashed up so bad but it may finally be time to consider an entry.
I've been tracking quite a few of these for some time and they've been long locked in these pitchfork channels.
This week PTRA will print a whole candle body outside of the pitchfork channel and that is worth noting.
Also worth noting is that most other EV's are still locked in their pitchfork although some of them have had some impulsive days.
But anyhow I won't be buying up here...
I will wait for a pull back and look for good technicals to get in 👍🏻.
TLDR: I am not getting long here I am waiting for a pull back.
Not advice.
XRP Weekly LevelsI always find it interesting how technicals line up to fundamentals. A lot of online opinions say the SEC v Ripple case is coming to a close and that the ruling may be in favor of Ripple. If that is the case it would be breaking above the levels marked. We may see some resistance at 0.60125 before breaking higher. I plan to put a market pending Long at 0.783 and let it ride with a SL at 0.60125.
Interesting to see how nicely the Schiff Pitchfork lines up as well.
Corrective wave scenario
This is supplementary/alternative to my previous idea.
Examining the internal waves of my presupposed "impulse," I realized some counts might mismatch Elliott's Law.
Instead, this move may form a corrective wave, e.g., complex correction (WXYXZ, Gray) or Diagonal Triangle (ABCDE, red; could be longer if with a thrust).
The chart would be self-explanatory, but the Triangle annotation is shifted for visibility.
In either scenario, the retracement in the fourth (corrective) wave is deeper than that of the impulse.
XAU/USD Long - 30m - Pre NY Open - Nov 14 2022Using one long term PF on the 4H, its obvious that we can drive again to the top after testing the major floor. Red parallel lines help us on lower time frames to enter more precisely.
1:2.5 trade but could have been more since market had volume to move and a smaller SL could have been used with the help of parallels. The parallels help with that in the sense we are more confident it will go up after it breaks/retests the first one.
LABU target price based on pitchfork analysisTwo pitchfork lines (one with dashed lines and one with sold lines) neatly matched their bottom lines. The price (approximately) reached that level 5 times. Further, the solid's middle red line matches pretty well the dashed pitchfork top lines. All these makes for a more confident prediction(s). The first is that the price will reach above 14 (the top dashed line), as marked. That would be above 75% increase from current price. At that point the price may or may not temporarily fall back after which I expect to continue up reaching above 22 (the marked top solid pitchfork line). That's over 175% profit.
I have been long on LABU since 6.47 (as posted elsewhere).
XL - Will Hit $0.5!!! 😵The chart that apparently no-one is interested in except for craic has been one of them most interesting charts for practicing techniques.
The highlighted area with 2 dojis is a retracement and it reveals that a phi or equidistant related continuation will follow. And that means it should move passed this middle band of fibs all the way down to the 1:1 @ 0.62 which will probably mean it will tag the 1.618 long range fib down at $0.47.
Also notice that price is leaving the pitchfork , - this is an indication of selling climax and bottom arriving imo .
I will be watching middle band fibs as price has not crossed yet, but this is going to $0.5 I think and what a buy it could be for a BIG bounce.
See you at $0.5
Not advice.
📉✌XAUUSD Daily Analysis✌📈FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
💥Pitchfork Setup💥
Hello Traders, First take a look at my previous ideas.
XAUUSD Daily Setup
The optimal entry point for a long position is from now until the price is in the yellow box.
Please share ideas and leave a comment,
let me know what's your idea.
CrazyS✌
ALTS and Predictive ModelsAnyone who follows me knows that I sometimes color outside of the lines regarding my application of tools for predictive means BUT, they sometimes work. Again, I use TOTAL3 because of my personal aversion to ETH and all things ERC20. I've NEVER had good experiences with that and prefer faster, cheaper methods to move around the crypto space (ahem . . XML . . yatta yatta )
Some reasons to support my rationale here :
1. Historical price action
2. A still highly speculative nature to crypto and the ridiculous parity it has with the S&P (standard piss)
3. More talk re: centralized CBDC's and the belief that the globalists would love to just push the delete button on everyone's personal wealth ("You will own nothing and be happy" . . F.U. Klaus)
4. At least one more flash wick liq before moon
The time frames might not be 100% but I think are reflective of larger market forces real word possibilities.
I like high, conservative probabilities and use DCA strategy ALWAYS, never shoot my wad even if it means missing massive gains. I'd rather make smaller, consistent gains than risk losing 1/2 my port on an overly leveraged position, not worth it and I've seen too many traders get liq'd never to return again. Makes for a much friendlier public chat here, despite if having gone into the trough in a massive way.
As always, this isn't investment advice, simply analysis for you to do your own research.
Stay frosty my friends!
ALT Coins & Predictive Models IIIf you go back to my previous idea for TOTAL3, you'll see that I had "eye-balled" a pitchfork (downward) to show a channel that I figured we would eventually take. I may not have gotten 100% accuracy on that fork but it was obvious (to me anyway) that we had some serious correction coming. That fork has proven itself after all.
So welcome to the next leg of the bear market, even if the plunge protection teams get in there and attempt to prop things up, bear markets are NECESSARY and deep corrections are EXACTLY what we need in order to shake weak projects, weak hands, hopium, hype and all the scams from our midst.
What has value is worth paying for and owning, the rest will vanish (assuming a free and generally un-tampered market, which we don't really have)
Enjoy the interim relief rally here but don't hold your breath for 90k Bitcoin and ETH, it still pretty much sucks, it's expensive, slow to transact and mostly a pain in the arse to work with.
* * * Not Investment advice * * *
SPY Bear CaseAMEX:SPY
SPY is at a pivotal point.
Right underneath the upper parallel of this confirmed Pitchfork . (Purple)
This idea is conditional, only if price cannot manage to break out of the Primary Pitchfork .
IF..... If SPY can't break above the (Purple) Larger Primary Pitchfork , it's likely to head back down to the Median Line .
The (Yellow) Minor Fork shows the potential path.
The expected Target is at the Energy Point, $328.
Note: Watch for a decline that stops short of the Median Line . This could very well mark the bottom, and become the catalyst for a big rally. (Hagopian Gap)
Fat_Fat
XAU/USD Short Term Long - 15m - Pre NY Open - Nov 8 2022Using longer term PF , we see price has respected a major ceiling and used a parallel a higher floor. Waited for price to react as expected once we reached the floor again and entered after price beat the previous high and created structure.
The short term PF drawn on the 15m timeframe was also used to better time the buy. We see price breaking the major ceiling and retest with confirmation giving us confidence that we could be breaking out soon. Impulse buys executed once it was obvious that price is likely to break the ceiling after testing a floor on the purple PF .
XRP | Stick a Fork in it :)So we've still got a longer term uptrend and Fibonacci channels seem to be holding fast and true. We still have a pretty strong forecast for a golden cross (50 EMA up over 200 EMA).
With the recent pump we've got two possible fork situations with the nearest term fork taking us lower but the the broader trend would indicate more room for higher levels.
I like the idea of a stop entry buy if this breaks into the upper 1.618 Fib channel and then topping around 0.70 . . let's see what happens.
We're double toppy at the moment but again, let's look at broader momentum.
Remember, XRP has a tendency to dump hard after pumps so always DCA / split your stash and be super careful with leverage.
XRP is like dynamite so handle with CARRRRRE :O
* * * not investment advice * * *
BTC Possible Middle Term Scenario (Rev)
Some errors and issues in precision are addressed.
No change in fundamental concepts.
The bear market shouldn't have been over, but we are likely in a relief rally if the price rises above the threshold of around (21600-) 21800.
Beware of still possible correction before the bullish move after the breakout.
Long until December, and maybe short (in January) at the 33k-34k zone.
If the market is more bearish, the downtrend could resume at 28k-29k.
I changed my view because the bullish dragon in the related idea now seems to have been in action.
The chart and annotation would be self-explanatory: the keys are harmonic patterns and Fibonacci.
To those who hate Gann Square and arcs: Ignore them, or ignore this idea. It's simple. Think twice before you post anything in the comment area.