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Pitchforks

BTC: 28k or 14k?Yesterday I posted 2 ideas: One where I gave all the levels The 2nd where I acknowledged a potential rejection In that 2nd idea, I said we would need to lose 22.5k for a confirmed sign of weakness. We ended up pushing to the upper daily at 23.4k, before going back and retesting the lower daily at 22.5k perfectly to then pump and break above 24k Now, of course BTC is looking pretty strong and more upside is more likely at the moment, targets being 26k then 28k (however be aware of reactions when we get above the previous high at 24.2k (potential SFP or failed auction)) If we want to see more downside, as always we need to wait for signs of weakness: Losing 23.4k would be the 1st one Losing 22.5k would be the 2nd and more significant one Any questions? Good luck traders Remember not to break your rules Habib
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Habib0601
Monthly TLT Historic Oversold Reading NASDAQ:TLT TLT, the long bond ETF is approaching a historic oversold monthly reading due to the coming rate hikes. The Fed would like us to believe that they will raise rates 6 more times this year, which would of course destroy bond prices. It's not going to happen.... The Fed has raised rates once thus far, by just 25 bps and the market is already down 15-20% from the highs. The US National Debt has ballooned above $30 Trillion, and every 100 bps adds 300 Billion in ANNUAL debt service expense. Those who time the interest rate peak, will be handsomely rewarded by going long bonds as the Fed is forced to stick their foot in their mouth and admit that the US economy is hostage to it's debt and dependent on low rates to sustain growth and keep the markets afloat. The interest rate threshold that causes a major systemic event gets lower and lower as the US is more and more indebted. twitter.com I believe that a combination of an intense market sell off and/or peaking rates somewhere around 150 - 175 bps will mark the bottom in bonds. I own no TLT at the moment; however, I will start scaling into a position over the next few months depending on the market reaction as we progress through the coming gauntlet of FOMC meetings (May/June/July) A test of the lower bound of the Modified Schiff Pitchfork will be my signal to go long. I'll update this idea with any TLT moves I make.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by Cousin_Fat_Fat
4
BTC 4H Analysis (July - Early August)After expectations were confirmed from the FOMC meeting on July 27 and some positive words were heard from the Fed, the price of BTC reacted with considerable bullish volume. Price has reacted again and surpassed the diagonal resistance created from the June and July major highs. Will BTC reach new highs in early August? The current rising channel momentum has increased significantly from its confirmed reversal on July 26th. We are able to draw a new pitchfork to expect the next major reversal or a new high. Combining Andrew's pitchfork, channel momentum, and trend-based Fibonacci time, we might be able to see a reversal around 26100, on August 2, as BTC continues its slowly bullish uptrend. Keep in mind that there may also be some bullish news for the cryptocurrency market in August, prior to and after the anticipated Ethereum merge. "The Merge represents the joining of the existing execution layer of Ethereum (the Mainnet we use today) with its new proof-of-stake consensus layer, the Beacon Chain. It eliminates the need for energy-intensive mining and instead secures the network using staked ETH. A truly exciting step in realizing the Ethereum vision – more scalability, security, and sustainability." ( ethereum.org ) Below is an old private price prediction of mine for ETH for some reference on momentum. We can also consider the current state of the US economy and how that might be significant. Global commodities are declining, US interest rates are expected to continue rising for the rest of 2022 to hedge inflation, the tech sector has generally been reporting strong earnings, and unemployment remains low. Absolute confirmation regarding the US recession status still remains inconclusive in my opinion. Very slow growth into 2023 is what I expect. Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions so we can compare the bulls and bears for a more accurate short-term expectation!
Long
by MakkInvests
1
BTC/USDT 4H LongEntry: 20883.6 TP: 22989.2 SL: 20187.8 Long Trade Idea: BTC has reached a point reflecting a reaction from a minor support zone, upwards channel momentum, and major pitchfork momentum. These zones may suggest a bullish reversal to occur making a temporary new high towards 23400. The RSI indicator is not showing any divergence which may suggest that the major downwards trend will continue. That further increases my thoughts for 23400 providing major temporary resistance, a decent opportunity to take profits before. That 23400 zone is also in line with the middle upwards channel as well as the major pitchfork momentum resistance. Let's see how this plays out. Disclaimer: I have not put a large degree of thought into this trade idea. This is purely for general practice and seeing if anyone has any thoughts that they would like to voice.
Long
by MakkInvests
CL - Crude LowerNYMEX:CL1! It looks like Crude is heading to the $75-$80 area. There are plenty of Macro forces underway that should push the price lower. Macro - Strong Dollar - Rising Interest Rates - Slowing Economies - Government Intervention (Fist Bumps) On the Technical Side: - Price finally broke under the green major pitchfork's median line - Weekly 9/20 MAs crossing bearish or Weekly Ichimoku Cloud: Impending conversion line / base line bearish cross - Weekly MACD / RSI heading lower - Weekly DMI, Bearish -DI cross However, the daily chart/indicators do not look as bleak in the near term. For this reason, I'm thinking that Crude might see some short lived upside before continuing lower. Taking the Pitchfork set-up into consideration, I'm thinking there are two potential scenarios that will play out. Two Scenarios 1 - Price retests the green fork's median line, before dropping. (Sky Blue Path) OR 2 - Price heads higher to the U-MLH of the purple fork into Ichimoku resistance areas (base line or cloud) before continuing lower. (Yellow Path) I'll be watching this chart closely, looking for a short entry. I'll update this idea when I get short.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Cousin_Fat_Fat
3
ADA/USD - 1 day chart analysisHere is a closer look at this ADA/USD 1 day chart: ADA is in a Ichimoku P Wave (the 2 converging Blue Trend-lines on Chart) on this daily timeframe. This P Wave is potentially Bearish because it is an inverted P. Note that the bottom trend-line of the P Wave is near the 38.20% ($0.430) Fib Retracement level. The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is indicating that the Mid-Point of the Short-Term Momentum is upwards at the moment. Note that the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is still under the Base Line (Kijun Sen) The Ichimoku Cloud Base Line (Kijun Sen) is indication that the Mid-Point of the Mid-Term Momentum is sideways at the moment. The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is indication that Momentum is downwards at the moment. Note that the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is still under the past price. Note that ADA is still in the Bearish Zone of the Ichimoku Cloud. ADA is still below its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA for the 1 day timeframe. Note that the Upper and Lower Bands are Pinching inwards at the moment. At the moment of typing this, ADA has dropped below its Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA). A daily candle close below the LSMA would be considered a Sell Signal for this indicator on this 1 day timeframe. ADA is still well below its Longterm Upwards Pitchfork Pattern Median Line and is also below its Lower Yellow Pitchfork Resistance Line. Looking at the entire ADA Chart we can see that the Volume Profile Visible Range Point of Control (VPVR POC) is at $0.041 and we can see the previous huge Volume Cluster from $0.096 to $0.033. This represents the area where the most volume was traded. Looking at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength is dropping with the ADX (Orange Line) at 13.988 still below its 9 Period EMA (Black Line) which is at 15.181. Negative Momentum has dropped with the -DI (Red Line) at 19.976 and Positive Momentum has also dropped with the +DI (Green Line) at 17.218. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) we can see that momentum is downwards at the moment. Note that the RSI (Purple Line) is below its 9 Period EMA (Orange Line) which is a sign of negative momentum strength. Note that the RSI still has plenty of room to drop before entering the Oversold Zone on this 1 day timeframe. If ADA breaks below its P Wave and its 38.20% ($0.431) Fib Retracement level then we may see an eventual drop to its 50% ($0.233) Fib Retracement Level. For the upside, we need ADA to stay above its LSMA and to eventually get back ABOVE and CLOSE a daily candle ABOVE its BB Middle Band with a successful re-test as support on this 1 day timeframe. Looking at this ADA 1 day chart really puts things in perspective, as you can see, ADA spent from March 2018 to March 2019 in the BEARISH ZONE of the Ichimoku Cloud which was then followed by about a year or so of a few rises and falls until March 2020 when ADA rose from $0.017 to an eventual new ATH of $3.143 in Sept 2021. Once this world wide recession and financial/crypto bear market is over be it in a year, 2, 5 or 10 years, eventually the Market Makers will decided that the Path of Least Resistance to Profit is…… upwards! So you have to position yourself ready so you can take advantage of the next parabolic rise up, not just in crypto but also stocks, commodities and indices. This is all my opinion so please do your own research because its you money. I hope this is helpful with your trading and hodl-ing.
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by TradingThroughTheLens